American Economic Review 2023年第1期

Vol. 113 No. 1 January 2023

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——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨

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1.Retail Pharmacies and Drug Diversion during the Opioid Epidemic

阿片類藥物流行期間的零售藥店和藥物轉(zhuǎn)移

Aljoscha Janssen

Xuan Zhang

This study investigates the role of retail pharmacy ownership in the opioid epidemic. Using data of prescription opioid orders, we show that compared with chain pharmacies, independent pharmacies dispense 39.1 percent more opioids and 60.5 percent more OxyContin. After an independent pharmacy becomes a chain pharmacy, opioid dispensing decreases. Using the OxyContin reformulation, which reduced nonmedical demand but not the legitimate medical demand, we show that at least one-third of the difference in the amount of OxyContin dispensed can be attributed to nonmedical demand. We show that differences in competitive pressure and whether pharmacists own the pharmacy drive our estimates.

本研究調(diào)查了零售藥房所有權(quán)在阿片類藥物流行中的作用。利用處方阿片類藥物訂單的數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，與連鎖藥店相比，獨立藥店的阿片類藥物和奧施康定的配售量分別增加了39.1%和60.5%。獨立藥店變成連鎖藥店后，阿片類藥物的配藥減少了。使用奧施康定改版，減少了非醫(yī)療需求，但沒有減少合法醫(yī)療需求，我們表明，至少三分之一的奧施康定配藥量差異可歸因于非醫(yī)療需求。我們表明，競爭壓力和藥劑師是否擁有藥房的差異驅(qū)動了我們的估計。

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210357

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2.Conflict and Intergroup Trade: Evidence from the 2014 Russia-Ukraine Crisis

沖突和集團(tuán)間貿(mào)易:2014年俄烏危機(jī)的證據(jù)

Vasily Korovkin

Alexey Makarin

Does armed conflict reduce trade, even in noncombat areas, through the destruction of intergroup social capital? We analyze Ukrainian trade transactions before and after the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that Ukrainian firms from districts with fewer ethnic Russians experienced a deeper decline in trade with Russia. This decline is economically significant, persistent, and can be explained by erosion of intergroup trust. Affected Ukrainian firms suffered a decrease in performance and diverted trade to other countries. Our results suggest that, through social effects, conflict can be economically damaging even away from combat areas.

武裝沖突是否會通過破壞群體間的社會資本來減少貿(mào)易，即使在非戰(zhàn)斗地區(qū)也是如此?我們分析了2014年俄烏沖突前后的烏克蘭貿(mào)易交易。在雙重差分框架下，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，來自俄羅斯民族較少地區(qū)的烏克蘭企業(yè)與俄羅斯的貿(mào)易下降幅度更大。這種下降在經(jīng)濟(jì)上是顯著的、持續(xù)的，可以用群體間信任的侵蝕來解釋。受影響的烏克蘭公司業(yè)績下降，貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)向其他國家。我們的研究結(jié)果表明，通過社會效應(yīng)，即使遠(yuǎn)離戰(zhàn)斗地區(qū)的沖突也可能對經(jīng)濟(jì)造成損害。

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20191701

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3.What Caused Racial Disparities in Particulate Exposure to Fall? New Evidence from the Clean Air Act and Satellite-Based Measures of Air Quality

是什么導(dǎo)致了顆粒物接觸下降的種族差異?來自《清潔空氣法》和基于衛(wèi)星的空氣質(zhì)量測量的新證據(jù)

Janet Currie

John Voorheis

Reed Walker

This project links administrative census microdata to spatially continuous measures of particulate pollution (PM2.5) to first document and then decompose the key drivers of convergence in black-white pollution exposure differences. We use quantile regression to show that a significant portion of the convergence in Black-White exposure is attributable to differential impacts of the Clean Air Act (CAA) in Black and White communities. Areas with larger Black populations saw greater CAA-related declines in PM2.5. We show that the CAA can account for over 60 percent of the racial convergence in PM2.5 pollution exposure in the United States since 2000.

該項目將行政普查微觀數(shù)據(jù)與空間連續(xù)的顆粒物污染(PM2.5)測量聯(lián)系起來，首先記錄并分解黑白污染暴露差異趨同的關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動因素。我們使用分位數(shù)回歸表明，黑白暴露的趨同在很大程度上歸因于《清潔空氣法》(CAA)在黑人和白人社區(qū)的不同影響。黑人人口較多的地區(qū)PM2.5出現(xiàn)了與caa有關(guān)的更大下降。我們的研究表明，自2000年以來，CAA可以解釋美國PM2.5污染暴露的種族趨同的60%以上。

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20191957

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4.Multigenerational Impacts of Childhood Access to the Safety Net: Early Life Exposure to Medicaid and the Next Generation's Health

兒童獲得安全網(wǎng)的多代影響:早期生活對醫(yī)療補助的影響和下一代的健康

Chloe N. East

Sarah Miller

Marianne Page

Laura R. Wherry

We examine multigenerational impacts of positive in utero health interventions using a new research design that exploits sharp increases in prenatal Medicaid eligibility that occurred in some states. Our analyses are based on US Vital Statistics natality files, which enables linkages between individuals' early life Medicaid exposure and the next generation's health at birth. We find evidence that the health benefits associated with treated generations' early life program exposure extend to later offspring. Our results suggest that the returns on early life health investments may be substantively underestimated.

我們使用一種新的研究設(shè)計，利用在一些州發(fā)生的產(chǎn)前醫(yī)療補助資格的急劇增加，來檢查積極的子宮健康干預(yù)的多代影響。我們的分析基于美國生命統(tǒng)計出生文件，它使個人早期的醫(yī)療補助暴露與下一代出生時的健康之間建立聯(lián)系。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)有證據(jù)表明，與接受治療的世代早期生活計劃相關(guān)的健康益處延伸到后來的后代。我們的研究結(jié)果表明，早期生命健康投資的回報可能被嚴(yán)重低估。

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210937

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5.Unobserved-Offers Bargaining

未觀察到的還價

Alexander Wolitzky

I study ultimatum bargaining with imperfectly observed offers. Imperfectly observed offers must be rejected with positive probability, even when the players' preferences are common knowledge. Noisier observations imply a greater risk of rejection. In repeated ultimatum bargaining, the responding party can obtain a positive payoff if his signal of the opponent's offer is also observed by the opponent herself, but not if his signal is private. In alternating-offers bargaining, a player is better off when her own offers are observed more precisely and her opponent's offers are observed less precisely. Possible applications include international relations, regulation, principal-agency, and product quality provision.

我研究了在不完全觀察報價的情況下進(jìn)行最后通牒談判。我們必須以正概率拒絕不完美的提議，即使玩家的偏好是眾所周知的。更嘈雜的觀察意味著更大的排斥風(fēng)險。在反復(fù)的最后通牒談判中，如果對方的出價信號也被對方觀察到，則回應(yīng)方可以獲得正的收益，但如果對方的信號是私有的，則不能獲得正的收益。在交換出價討價還價中，當(dāng)一個牌手自己的出價被更精確地觀察而對手的出價被更不精確地觀察時，他的處境會更好?？赡艿膽?yīng)用包括國際關(guān)系、法規(guī)、委托代理和產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量規(guī)定。

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20211524

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6.Did US Politicians Expect the China Shock?

美國政界人士是否預(yù)料到了“中國沖擊”?

Matilde Bombardini

Bingjing Li

Francesco Trebbi

Information sets, expectations, and preferences of politicians are fundamental, but unobserved determinants of their policy choices. Employing repeated votes in the US House of Representatives on China's normal trade relations (NTR) status during the two decades straddling China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, we apply a moment inequality approach designed to deliver consistent estimates under weak informational assumptions on the information sets of members of Congress. This methodology offers a robust way to test hypotheses about what information politicians have at the time of their decision and to estimate the weight that constituents, ideology, and other factors have in policy making and voting.

政治家的信息集、期望和偏好是他們政策選擇的基本但不可觀察的決定因素。在中國加入世界貿(mào)易組織(WTO)的20年期間，美國眾議院對中國的正常貿(mào)易關(guān)系(NTR)地位進(jìn)行了反復(fù)投票，我們采用了時刻不平等方法，旨在對國會議員的信息集在弱信息假設(shè)下提供一致的估計。這種方法提供了一種強(qiáng)有力的方法來測試關(guān)于政治家在做出決定時擁有哪些信息的假設(shè)，并估計選民、意識形態(tài)和其他因素在政策制定和投票中所占的權(quán)重。

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210140

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7.Signaling and Discrimination in Collaborative Projects

合作項目中的信號和歧視

Paula Onuchic?

Debraj Ray

We study collaborative work in pairs when potential collaborators are motivated by the reputational implications of (joint or solo) projects. In equilibrium, individual collaboration strategies both influence and are influenced by the public assignment of credit for joint work across the two partners. We investigate the fragility of collaboration to small biases in the public's credit assignment. When collaborators are symmetric, symmetric equilibria are often fragile, and in nonfragile equilibria individuals receive asymmetric collaborative credit based on payoff-irrelevant "identities." We study payoff distributions across identities within asymmetric equilibria, and compare aggregate welfare across symmetric and asymmetric equilibria.

當(dāng)潛在合作者受到(聯(lián)合或個人)項目的聲譽影響的激勵時，我們成對研究協(xié)作工作。在均衡狀態(tài)下，個體合作策略既影響合作伙伴之間共同工作的公開授信，也受其影響。我們調(diào)查了在公眾的信用分配中，協(xié)作對小偏差的脆弱性。當(dāng)合作者是對稱的時，對稱均衡往往是脆弱的，而在非脆弱均衡中，個體基于與報酬無關(guān)的“身份”獲得非對稱的合作信用。我們研究了非對稱均衡中不同身份的收益分配，并比較了對稱和非對稱均衡中的總福利。

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20211729

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8.Judging Judge Fixed Effects

判斷固定效應(yīng)

Brigham Frandsen

Lars Lefgren

Emily Leslie

We propose a nonparametric test for the exclusion and monotonicity assumptions invoked in instrumental variable (IV) designs based on the random assignment of cases to judges. We show its asymptotic validity and demonstrate its finite-sample performance in simulations. We apply our test in an empirical setting from the literature examining the effects of pretrial detention on defendant outcomes in New York. When the assumptions are not satisfied, we propose weaker versions of the usual exclusion and monotonicity restrictions under which the IV estimator still converges to a proper weighted average of treatment effects.

我們提出了工具變量(IV)設(shè)計中使用的排除性和單調(diào)性假設(shè)的非參數(shù)檢驗，基于案件的隨機(jī)分配去判定。我們證明了它的漸近有效性，并在仿真中證明了它的有限樣本性能。我們將我們的測試應(yīng)用在一個經(jīng)驗背景下，從文獻(xiàn)中考察了紐約審前拘留對被告結(jié)果的影響。當(dāng)假設(shè)不滿足時，我們提出了通常的排除性和單調(diào)性限制的較弱版本，在這種情況下，IV估計量仍然收斂于處理效果的適當(dāng)加權(quán)平均。

.DOI: 10.1257/aer.20201860

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