TED演講者：Bill Gates / 比爾·蓋茨

演講標題：We can make COVID-19 the last pandemic / 讓新冠成為最后的大流行病

內容概要：Building a pandemic-free future won't be easy, but Bill Gates believes that we have the tools and strategies to make it possible -- now we just have to fund them. In this forward-looking talk, he proposes a multi-specialty Global Epidemic Response and Mobilization (GERM) team that would detect potential outbreaks and stop them from becoming pandemics. By investing in disease monitoring, research and development as well as improved health systems, Gates believes we can "create a world where everyone has a chance to live a healthy and productive life -- a life free from the fear of the next COVID-19."

建設一個沒有大流行病的未來不是件容易的事，但比爾·蓋茨認為人類有工具和措施來使之成為可能 —— 我們現在只需要為它們提供資金。在這具有前瞻性的演講中，蓋茨提議成立一個多專業(yè)的全球流行病應對和動員小組(GERM)。該小組將發(fā)現潛在的疫情并阻止它們成為大流行病。蓋茨相信，通過投資于病毒監(jiān)測、研發(fā)以及改善衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)，我們可以“創(chuàng)造一個世界讓每個人都有機會過上健康、充實的生活 —— 一種不用擔心下一次COVID-19的生活。

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【1】In the year 6 CE, a fire devastated Rome.

在公元六年, 一場大火摧毀了羅馬。

【2】In response, Emperor Augustus did something that had never been done before in the history of the Empire.

來應對此次火災, 皇帝奧古斯做了一件 在帝國歷史上從未做過的事:

【3】He created a permanent team of firefighters who used buckets just like this one.

他創(chuàng)建了一個永久性的消防員團隊, 用著像這樣的水桶。

【4】Augustus understood that individuals alone can't protect themselves from fires.

奧古斯意識到, 個人無法保護自己免受火災的威脅,

【5】They need help from the community.

我們需要社區(qū)的幫助。

【6】When one person's house is on fire, that creates a risk for everyone else's homes.

一幢房子若不幸著火, 就會給他人的房子帶來風險。

【7】And so what we've had these last few years is like a horrific global fire.

在這幾年,我們人類見證的就如 一場可怖的全球火災。

【8】The COVID pandemic has killed millions and upended economies, and we want to stop that from happening again.

新冠疫情已導致數百萬人死亡 并破壞了經濟, 我們不希望再重蹈覆轍。

【9】COVID, it's hard to overstate how awful it's been.

新冠肺炎的可怕程度 怎么說都不過分。

【10】It's increased the health inequities between the rich and the poor.

它加劇了富人和窮人之間的健康不平等。

【11】Survival depended partly on your income, your race, the neighborhood you lived in.

你的幸存幾率 和你的收入、種族 和居住地緊緊相關。

【12】And so we should seize this opportunity to create a world where everyone has a chance to live a healthy and productive life.

我們應該抓住這個機會 來創(chuàng)造一個世界 讓每一個人都有機會

【13】Also a life free from the fear of the next COVID-19.

活的健康、充實。

【14】When I was on this stage in 2015, I was one of many people who said we weren't ready and we needed to get ready.

在2015年的TED大會上, 我還有很多人都說 面對疫情我們毫無準備, 而我們需要迅速行動起來。

【15】We didn't.

我們并沒有。

【16】The speech actually was watched by a lot of people.

很多人看了那個演講。

【17】But 90 percent of the views were after it was too late.

但90%的觀看量都發(fā)生在 為時已晚之后。

【18】So now I hope the need is clear.

現在我希望 這種必要性是顯然易見的。

【19】And of course, we've learned a lot.

當然,我們掌握了不少新知識。

【20】During this pandemic, a lot of things worked well, a lot of things didn't work well.

在這場大流行病中, 一些措施都很有效, 而其他則不管用。

【21】And so we have all that knowledge to build a prevention system.

我們得利用我們的知識儲備 來建立一個預防系統(tǒng)。

【22】COVID-19 can be the last pandemic if we take the right steps.

若我們走對下一步棋, COVID-19可成為最后一場大流行病,

【23】So how, what are these steps?

所以怎么才能做到？

【24】Well, let's go back and look at what the Romans did.

讓我們看看羅馬人當時怎么做的。

【25】Think about how, over time, we've gotten good at preventing big fires.

想想,隨著時間的推移, 人們變得善于預防大火災。

【26】Fire prevention is kind of this pervasive thing.

防火是一件很普遍的事情。

【27】It's well funded.

它有著充足的預算資金。

【28】It's well understood.

它被人熟知并理解。

【29】If an alarm went off right now, everyone here would know we're supposed to calmly gather, go out and wait instructions.

如果火警現在響了, 所有在場觀眾都知道 我們應經條有序的走向安全出口, 在外面等待指令。

【30】We'd know that help would be on the way because we have lots of trained firefighters who practice.

我們清楚救援馬上會到, 因為我們有很多訓練有素的消防員。

【31】The United States alone has 370,000 full-time firefighters, even more than I guessed that number would be.

單單在美國, 我們有超過37萬專職消防員, 這個數字比我想象的還要多。

【32】We also have access to water.

我們很容易獲得大量的水。

【33】The United States, for example, has almost nine million fire hydrants.

在美國,差不多有九百萬個消防栓。

【34】And so that type of investment, that type of practice, that type of system is what we need to stop pandemics.

高投入資金,大量訓練, 完善的系統(tǒng), 是我們來對抗大流行病的必要條件。

【35】Now, often in movies, we'll have pandemics.

在電影中, 時常有大流行病的橋段。

【36】And I'm always impressed with what takes place.

電影中發(fā)生的一切 讓我印象深刻。

【37】Let's look at an example of this rapid response.

讓我們看一個片段 其中的迅速反應。

【38】Well, that's quite impressive.

影片中值得贊賞。

【39】We don't need the music, but otherwise we saw exactly what should happen.

背景音樂的確是有些過火, 但這個片段展示了 在現實生活中本該發(fā)生的事。

【40】An outbreak's detected.

疫情開始爆發(fā),

【41】Very quickly, literally within days, doctors are dispatched.

很快,在幾天之內, 醫(yī)生們迅速部署。

【42】They have a helicopter to get into exactly ground zero.

直升機帶領醫(yī)生直達疫情中心。

【43】They go in there, and they've got the right tools.

他們帶著對的工具抵達。

【44】And this is what should happen when an outbreak is spotted.

一旦發(fā)現疫情, 這是人們應該采取一系列措施。

【45】But we don't have that team, we don't have those resources.

但我們現在沒有這種團隊, 沒有這種資源。

【46】And if an outbreak took place in a low-income country, it could be literally months before we started to orchestrate those resources.

若疫情爆發(fā)于低收入國家, 我們需要要數月 僅開始整理資源。

【47】So despite what you see in movies, there is no group of experts standing by to prevent this disaster.

與你在電影中看到的不同, 現今我們沒有一個專家小組 隨時待命來預防這場災難。

【48】So we have to create a new team.

所以我們必須建立一個新團隊。

【49】I believe we should create what I call the GERM team.

我認為 我們需要建立一個GERM團隊。

【50】Germ stands for Global Epidemic Response and Mobilization.

GERM是 全球流行病應對和動員的縮寫。

【51】This group is full-time.

它是一個全職小組。

【52】Their only priority is pandemic prevention.

他們唯一的重點職責 是預防大流行病。

【53】It's made up of a diverse set of specialists with a lot of different realms of expertise: epidemiologists, data scientists, logistics experts.

GERM由來自廣泛領域的專家組成 流行病學家、數據科學家、 物流專家。

【54】And it's not just scientific and medical knowledge.

他們不僅僅有科學或醫(yī)學知識,

【55】They also have to have communication and diplomacy skills.

他們還具有溝通和外交能力。

【56】The cost of this team is significant.

運行GERM團隊花費不小。

【57】It's over a billion a year to support the 3,000 people who would be on this team.

每年將要約10億美元 來支撐3000位團隊成員。

【58】And its mission is to stop outbreaks before they become pandemics.

它的任務是阻止疫情演變成大流行病。

【59】The work would be coordinated by the WHO.

這項工作將由世衛(wèi)組織協(xié)調。

【60】They'd be present in many locations around the world, stationed in public health agencies.

GERM將身處世界各地, 在公共衛(wèi)生機構工作。

【61】They'd work closely with the national teams, depending on the income level.

他們會和當地國家的團隊 緊密合作, 當然這也要看當地的收入情況。

【62】They'd have more in the lower-income countries.

在低收入國家中, 分配的人手會更多。

【63】You know, for example, we could have GERM members say an epidemiologist, working out of the Africa CDC office in Abuja.

舉個例子,我們可以讓GERM成員 一位流行病學家在非洲疾病預防控制中心 駐阿布賈辦公室工作。

【64】And a very important thing is that like firefighters, a GERM team would do drills.

與消防員相似, GERM團隊會經常進行演習。

【65】When you want to have quick response, when you want to make sure you have all the pieces there and you can move very quickly, practice is key.

你若想要及時的反應, 萬事俱備, 快速行動, 那練習是必不可少的。

【66】That's how you make sure everyone knows what to do.

這樣才能確保每個人都知道該怎么做。

【67】Now, this team, there could be periods where there's no risky outbreak and they can keep their skills strong by working on some of the other infectious diseases, but that would be a second priority.

這支隊伍,可能會面對 一段時間沒有危險疫情爆發(fā), 那他們可以 治理其他傳染病 幫助團隊保持技能, 但那會是他們的第二責任。

【68】They would work with countries to strengthen their health systems.

GERM將幫助各國加強其衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)。

【69】The health systems are the front line.

衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)是就是前線。

【70】You need to know if, say, a lot of people show up with a new kind of cough, that's when GERM needs to look into it and say, is this an outbreak?

你若想知道, 如果一群人帶著一種奇怪的新咳嗽 出現在健康診所, 這時GERM就需研究并判斷, 這是一場會蔓延的疫情嗎？

【71】Is there a new pathogen here?

這里有新的病原體嗎?

【72】What is the sequence of that?

它的序列是什么？

【73】And so for all of this, the first 100 days are key.

對于這一切行動, 前100天將是關鍵。

【74】Viruses spread exponentially.

病毒以指數方式傳播。

【75】And so if you get in there when the infection rate is fairly small, you can actually stop the spread.

所以如果能在感染率很小時開始控制, 你實際上可以阻止傳播。

【76】You know, in this epidemic, if we'd been able to stop it within 100 days, we would have saved over 98 percent of the lives.

在這場流行病中, 若我們可以在前100天阻止傳播, 我們可以拯救98%的生命。

【77】Now, we did have countries that did a good job.

我們確實有一些國家做得很好。

【78】Australia is an example.

比如說澳大利亞。

【79】They orchestrated diagnostic capacity.

他們協(xié)調了診斷能力。

【80】They came up with distancing policies and quarantine policies.

他們制定了保持距離和隔離政策。

【81】And so their overall death rate per capita will be well less than a 10th of other countries.

因此,他們的人均總死亡率 遠低于其他國家的十分之一。

【82】But we did not, as a world, contain it.

但就整個世界來講, 我們并沒有成功控制病毒。

【83】And that's what we have to do next time.

這是我們在下一次必須做到的。

【84】When COVID struck, we were almost like Rome before they had fire buckets and firefighters.

當新冠來臨, 我們就像 還未具備水桶和消防員的羅馬。

【85】We didn't have the people, the systems or the tools we need.

我們沒有急需的人,系統(tǒng)和工具。

【86】Now, with the right investments, we can have a whole new generation of tools, better diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines.

如果我們做出正確的投資 我們將擁有一系列更成熟的工具, 更有效的診斷、治療和疫苗。

【87】A good example in the diagnostic area is this little machine, this is called the Lumira.

舉個診斷方面的例子, 這個小小的機器叫做Lumira。

【88】We can have these all over the world that can test for any number of diseases.

可以在世界任何地方檢測多種疾病。

【89】It's a 10th as expensive as PCR, it's absolutely as accurate, and it's simple.

與PCR測試相比 成本只有其十分之一, 結果一樣準確, 而且用起來十分方便。

【90】So it can be used anywhere.

幾乎可以在任何地方使用。

【91】We need other R&D investments.

我們需要其他研發(fā)投資。

【92】One that I'm very excited about is the idea of a drug that you inhale that blocks you from getting infected.

有一個讓我十分激動的想法是 一種可被吸入的藥物 保護你免受傳染。

【93】It can be pathogen-independent and trigger your immune system so that you'll be protected.

它可以不依賴于病原體, 并觸發(fā)你的免疫系統(tǒng) 保護你。

【94】A lot of the tools, the diagnostic tools and those infection-blocking tools are important because they can be staged in advance.

許多工具,診斷工具 和那些阻斷感染工具十分重要, 因為它們可以被提前部署。

【95】Now, we also need vaccines, but we want to stop the outbreak before we have to do a global vaccination campaign.

我們也需要疫苗。 但我們更希望 在需要進行全球疫苗行動之前 阻止疫情的爆發(fā)

【96】And so vaccines can play a couple of different roles, but not the primary role.

疫苗可以扮演幾個不同的角色, 但它并不是主角。

【97】We have to invest in more than just that.

我們要投資的不止這些。

【98】When we look at vaccines, they were the miracle of this epidemic.

當我們看到疫苗在這場流行病中 發(fā)揮了奇跡般的作用。

【99】They saved millions of lives, but they can be far better.

它們拯救了百萬生命, 但它還可以不斷進步。

【100】We need to invent easier-to-deliver vaccines that are just a patch you put on your arm or something that you inhale.

我們需要投資研發(fā) 更容易提供的疫苗 如手臂貼片或鼻腔噴霧。

【101】We need vaccines that actually block infections.

我們需要可以阻斷感染的疫苗。

【102】In this case, there were lots of breakthrough infections.

如今,我們看到了 不少接種疫苗后的感染。

【103】We need vaccines that are broad spectrum, so they work against most of the emerging variants, which we did not have this time.

我們需要廣譜疫苗, 它們會與大多數新出現的變異相對抗, 我們現在還沒有這種疫苗。

【104】And we also need factories that are standing by so we can build enough vaccines for the entire world within six months and achieve far better equity.

同時,我們需要工廠待命, 這樣才可以為全世界人民 生產足夠疫苗, 這要在六個月內完成, 達到真正意義上的公平。

【105】The vaccines can also do something that would be super helpful, which is to help us eradicate entire families of viruses.

疫苗還可以做一些非常有用的事情, 比如說完全消除整個病毒家族。

【106】Innovative new vaccines used properly could get rid of the flu family, the coronavirus family.

正確使用創(chuàng)新的新疫苗 可以消除流感家族, 或是冠狀病毒家族。

【107】And there's a huge burden of those, even in non-pandemic years, and if we get rid of it, it can never cause a pandemic.

這些病毒是我們巨大的負擔, 在沒有大流行的年代也是這樣, 如果我們可以清除它們, 將在不會引起一場大流行病。

【108】So I'm talking about investments in three broad areas: Disease monitoring, that's GERM.

我在談論三個廣泛領域的投資: 疾病監(jiān)測, 就是GERM。

【109】The R and D tools that are far better.

更好的研發(fā)工具。

【110】And finally, and the most expensive, is improved health systems.

還有其中花費最高的, 提升我們的衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)。

【111】This won't be cheap, but it'll save lives.

這些不會很便宜, 它們將拯救生命。

【112】And even it'll save money in the long run.

并從長遠角度來看, 它還會省錢。

【113】It's like an insurance policy.

就像是一個保險政策。

【114】The cost to prevent the next pandemic will be tens of billions of dollars.

來預防下一次大流行病 我們要花費幾十億美元。

【115】But let's compare that to what we just went through.

但是讓我們把它和 我們剛剛經歷的疫情做個比較。

【116】The IMF estimates that COVID has cost nearly 14 trillion dollars.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)估計, 新冠肺炎已經造成近14萬億美元損失。

【117】And so we need to spend billions in order to save trillions.

為了節(jié)省這數萬億美元, 我們必須要花這數十億美元。

【118】And here's the best part of this.

最好的部分是。

【119】Even when we're not having an outbreak, these investments like the Lumira, those new vaccines, they will make people healthier.

在沒有疫情時, 對類似Lumira工具的投資, 新型疫苗, 會讓人們更健康。

【120】They'll shrink the gap, the health equity gap, which is gigantic, between rich and poor countries.

他們會縮小貧富之間的健康差距, 現今在貧困和富有國家之間, 健康差距是一個巨大鴻溝。

【121】For example, we can detect more HIV cases and do a better job of treatment.

例如,我們可以發(fā)現更多艾滋病毒病例, 并更好地進行治療。

【122】We can reduce deaths from malaria.

我們可以減少瘧疾造成的死亡。

【123】We can get more people high-quality care.

我們可以為更多的人 提供高質量的醫(yī)療服務。

【124】And so this is not just a downer about how to stop things from getting worse, but also a chance to make things better.

所以這并不是 只能阻止壞情況發(fā)酵的灰心事, 而是一個讓世界變更好的機會。

【125】If we take the right steps, we can make COVID-19 the last pandemic, and we can build a healthier, more equitable world for everyone.

若我們走對棋, 我們可以讓COVID-19 成為最后的大流行病, 我們也可以為所有人建造一個 更健康,更公平的世界。

【126】Thank you.

謝謝。

【127】Helen Walters: Thank you so much.

海倫.沃特斯:非常感謝你。

【128】I have a few follow-up questions and one is really about the formal status of GERM.

我有幾個想跟進的問題, 其中一個是關于 GERM的現狀。

【129】So you mentioned this would cost a billion dollars, you mentioned it comes through the WHO, but exactly who's running this, how does this work, how do we make this happen?

你提到了這將花費10億美元, 你也提到了 這需要通過世衛(wèi)組織來實現, 但究竟誰來經營, 工作將如何進行, 我們如何實現這一目標？

【130】BG: Well, GERM does not exist.

蓋茨:目前來說, GERM并不存在。

【131】It's a proposal I'm putting forward that hopefully over the next year, while the pain of the pandemic is still clear in people's minds, will get a global consensus.

這是我提出的一個建議, 希望在未來的一年里, 當新冠的痛苦 還很清晰的在我們腦海里, 將會獲得一個全球共識。

【132】The rich-world governments will have to step up like they do with all the aid things and come up with that money.

強國的政府, 將不得不采取行動, 就像他們做出的援助那樣 并拿出這筆錢。

【133】The way the personnel systems works, so that it's under WHO, but a really top-notch team, there will be a lot of debate about how to do that well.

人事運作方面, 在世衛(wèi)的領導下, 這是一個真正的一流團隊, 關于如何做好這一點, 將會有很多辯論。

【134】So, you know, I'm putting it forward and hopefully within the next year we'll get that consensus.

我現在提出這個想法, 并希望在明年 我們會達到這個共識。

【135】HW: Who do you need to pick that up next?

沃特斯:接下來需要誰來接這個項目？

【136】BG: Well, it's really the rich-world governments.

蓋茨:嗯,說實在, 應該是是富裕國家的政府。

【137】The WHO has this big yearly meeting, the World Health Assembly, and at some point somebody will put forward a resolution and we'll see if the extra resources can be put in for that.

世衛(wèi)組織每年都有這樣的大型會議。 世界衛(wèi)生大會, 在這個時候會有人 提出一個建議, 我們將看看 能否為此投入額外的資源。

【138】After World War II, we did a lot.

第二次世界大戰(zhàn)后, 我們做了很多。

【139】You know, we created the United Nations, we talked a lot about war.

你知道,我們創(chuàng)建了聯合國。 我們談了很多關于戰(zhàn)爭的問題。

【140】So I'd be stunned, although, you know, so far the action has been less than I would have expected, I'd be stunned if we don't go forward with something pretty close to what I'm laying out there.

所以我會感到震驚, 因為目前的行動 比我預期的要少。 如果我們不以 非常接近我剛描述的方式前進, 我會感到震驚。

【141】HW: This has been pretty personal for you.

沃特斯:這個話題與你緊密相關。

【142】You know, the anti-vaxxers are out there, they are loud, and this has become personal.

你知道,反疫苗主義者十分活躍, 這已經變成了私人恩怨。

【143】I just wanted to ask, like, how are you managing that?

我想問的是, 你是如何處理這個問題的？

【144】BG: Well, it's kind of weird.

蓋茨:說來奇怪。

【145】Now, our foundation, the Gates Foundation, is very involved in vaccines, the invention of new vaccines, funding vaccines.

現在,我們的基金會, 即蓋茨基金會, 在疫苗方面有很大的投入。

【146】And we're very proud that through joint efforts like GAVI, that saved tens of millions of lives.

我們感到非常自豪的是,通過像全球疫苗 和免疫聯盟的共同努力, 拯救了數以千萬計的生命。

【147】So it's somewhat ironic to have somebody turn around and say, no, you know, we're using vaccines to kill people or to make money or, you know, we started the pandemic,

因此,有人轉過頭來說 我們利用疫苗來殺人 或者是為了賺錢, 是很諷刺的。 或者說 是我們引發(fā)了大流行病。

【148】even some strange things like, that I somehow want to track, you know, the location of individuals because I'm so deeply desirous to know where everybody is.

甚至一些奇怪的事情, 比如我想通過疫苗追蹤 你的個人定位 因為我是如此深切地渴望 想知道每個人在哪里。

【149】I'm not sure what I'm going to do with that information.

我不確定 我將如何處理這些信息。

【150】You know, does this turn into something where, you know, there's constantly crazy people showing up?

這是否會形成 不斷有瘋狂的人在我面前出現？

【151】Who knows?

誰知道呢？

【152】But, you know, hopefully, as the pandemic calms down, people are more rational about, hey, vaccines are a miracle and there's a lot more we can do.

但是希望 隨著大流行病的平靜下來, 人們會更加理性地看待, 疫苗是一個奇跡, 而且我們還可以做很多事情。

【153】HW: So the future is in our hands in the present.

沃特斯: 所以未來在我們手中。

【154】Bill Gates, thank you so much for being here.

比爾.蓋茨,非常感謝你來到這里。

【155】BG: Thank you.

蓋茨:謝謝你。