Write：Yun?Zhong? ? ?translate：An Long Guang Zhi Yi

Chinese articles：分裂還是重生：尼共的內(nèi)憂與外患

Chinese video：中文視頻

? In the morning of December 20th, 2020, KP Sharma Oli, the Prime Minster of Nepal, held an emergency cabinet meeting, and decided to propose to Bidhya Devi Bhandari, the President of Nepal, to dissolve the House of Representatives, and held and early election of it. In the same afternoon, Bhandari signed and approved the proposal from the cabinet, and declared that the election of the House of Representatives is to be held on April 30th and May 10th of 2021. On May 22th, 2021, by Xinhua Press, Bhandari accepted the proposal from Oli, and declared to dissolve of the House of Representatives and re-elect it in November, 2021. In the meantime, PM Oli is facing the second round of his vote of confidence. The change in the politics of Nepal amd CPN is not only due to the intensification of the conflict between Oli and Prachanda, who are the co-chairmen of the CPN, but also associates closely to the history of CPN, the pattern of Indian subcontinent, and even the world pattern today. Under the background that the US and India deepen the execution of Indo-Pacific Strategy, the future of CPN causes attention again.

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1.????? The Conflictful Tradition Between the Two Factions of CPN

? In May, 2018, the two major communist parties, the CPN (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and the CPN (Maoist Centre) is declared to be combined to CPN, a brand new communist party. The CPN, as the strongest ruling party since the beginning of the democratization in Nepal since 1990s, controlled the federal government of Nepal, processed almost two thirds of the seats of the federal parliament, and ruled 6 provinces out of 7 around the country. However, the combination of the two parties foreshadowed the conflicts within the CPN.

? Prachanda and Oli, the leaders of CPN (M) and CPN (ML), scrambled over the position of the Chairperson of CPN. Given that the seniorities, influences, and titles of them were similar, although Oli was the chairman of the greatest party, the violent revolution started by CPN (M) almost allowed CPN (M) to seize the power. Since neither Oli nor Prachanda was willing to take a back seat, they were elected to be co-chairmen of CPN, and Oli was recommended by CPN (M) to be the PM, and they made an oral agreement that each of them took half of the term of the PM office. However, right by the end of the 2.5-year term, Oli denied the agreement, which led to the chaos of Nepal politics.

? Historically, conflicts between factions has been a tradition of Nepal. CPN was divided into different factors along its way exploring the socialism in Nepal, being affected internally and externally. ?Conflicts and integration between factions in CPN has been a distinguish characteristic of the communist movements in Nepal. Since the foundation of CPN in Kolkata, india on April 22th, 1949, CPN has been in separate pieces for long. The first split was due to the change in China-USSR relationship. CPN was divided into a moderate and a radical factor, in which the former supported USSR internationally but in favor of Monarchy domestically, and the latter supported the rural revolution in China, being called Pro-Chinese. Only in one year, the radical factor suffered from another split, due to disagreements upon the specific program of the revolution, and CPN (M) stood out of them in 1990. As for the moderate faction, they could not reach an agreement about the student movement in 1978, and the impact of Collapse of the former Soviet Union and East Europe caused ideological crises in three subfactions of the moderates. After long-term splits and reunions, CPN (ML) came in to being in 2005. After CPN (M) seized the power semi-violently, it became somehow regular that CPN (M), CPN (ML) and Nepal Congress Party cooperating or rebelling each other.

? To CPN, it is normal that they split and reunite, gang up and conflicts among factions. Only the splits of CPN (M) gave birth to more than 10 communist parties. CPN does not feel any bad about separation and rebel, hence no leaders of CPN are afraid of being blamed due to the splits. From here, one could find that the history of CPN (M) and CPN (ML) provides no help to the combination of them, the new-founded CPN, in the contrary, it have made the conflicts between CPN (M) and CPN(ML) severer. According to Shubin Zhang (2021), the CPN had been in divided parts in actual.

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2.????? The Degeneration and Opposition in CPN’s Ideology

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? The degeneration of ideology in CPN weakened its resistance to other ideologies. After accepting the multiparty democracy, although both CPN (ML) and CPN (M) claimed that their system was essentially different from the multiparty democracy in capitalism, not only did they provide no clear theoretical explanation, but they also fell into degeneration in ideology. For example, the CPN (M) abandoned the leadership over the military, accepting to be reorganized by the “People’s Liberation Army of Nepal”hastily. Also, they renounced the farmland policy that the farming workers processes the lands, forcing the farming workers to return the farmlands that they seized during the civil war to the landlords. Additionally, they gave up the standpoint of opposing India and the United States, and advocated to be pro-India and pro-USA. What is more, they replaced their “From New Democracy to Socialism” by “From Capitalism to Socialism”. As for CPN (ML), after deciding to go to the path of parliamentary struggle, they generally abandoned class struggle, violent revolution and dictatorship of the proletariat that they insisted before, and alternatively identify themselves with patriotism and nationalism, although they were still in the name of Marxism. Man Mohan Adhikari, the late chair of CPN, once claimed publicly: “We would achieve nothing only according to what Karl Marx said one century ago. However, the people acknowledge this name. Personally speaking, I have no problem with changing this name, we have been a social democratic party if we are in another country. ”Besides, the two CPNs lowered the threshold of entrance in order to recruit more members, and they made policies following pragmatism per the requirement of governess, the degeneration in their ideology became worse, . The degeneration in ideology was the major cause of the fail in the first Nepalese Constituent Assembly (NCA) Election in April, 2008. In the second election of NCA, CPN (M) fell into the third party, which was also closely associate to their degeneration in ideology. Due to the same reason,? the two CPNs were at a disadvantage facing the Congress Party and the royalists. For instance, the Congress Party once claimed that they founded the democracy in Nepal, and that the left wing union would lead the country into “communist government and dictatorship”, attaching the labels of autocracy and dictatorship unilaterally.

? The ideology in CPN degenerated, but the conflicts did not. Matrika Prasad Yadav, a member of the standing committee that had a close relationship with Prachanda, believed that the conflicts within the party was essentially one about ideology and policies, but not about power and positions. The CPN was combined with CPN (ML) and CPN (M). The two parties were in different paths of struggling, making the unite of ideology being hard in short time. Now, great disagreements exists over the concepts, like “War of the People”. Actually, after the merge of the two CPNs, several leaders from the original CPN (ML) doubted about the hasty combination of the two CPNs, claiming that Prachanda and Oli did this for their personal interest. And the difference in the ideology in CPN still existed even after the victory in the election in 2018. Some analysists believed that the conflicts in CPN at that time were inevitable, since the alliance and unity previously were hasty and that was only for political victory, however, the basic conflicts between CPN (ML) and CPN (M) were not solved.

? The ideology in Nepal was also discriminated by the outside world. The united CPN was thought to “associated with Communist Party of China (CPC), North Korea, Vietnam and Laos.” As a communist party with many radical (CPN (M)) members, the CPN was regarded as a factor that shook the stability of Nepal, and the co-existence of communist party and democracy were also doubt. At the early time of the left wing union, the United Stated and India believed that the foundation of this union was associated with China, claiming that the communist parties in Nepal and China shares similar ideologies, and Nepal was affected by China. Due to the internal and external troubles about ideology, llike degeneration in ideology, degrading in unity within the party, decrease in domestic support, and relationship sour with India, the future of the CPN is badly worried.

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? Due to the special geographical position that Nepal is surrounded by two huge countries, China and India, India thought highly of controlling this strategic buffer zone in containing China, covering Nepal into its “protection”, and the Nepal Governments seemed to be happy with this. However, along with the change in Nepal politics, Nepal’s attitude towards Indea changed greatly. In CPN, even the people who were once close to Indian military hated that India did. This was because that India “supports both constitutional monarchy and multiparty democracy, which are two contradict policies, and they secretly supported the Maoist rebellion. ” This long bet was regarded as hegemonism and could not be trusted again. To Nepalians, the “protection” from India was not protective, and in the name of “protection”, India did not show respect to the sovereignty of Nepal, seizing for interest of India itself continuously, which caused the long instability and slow development in Nepal from outside.

? The relationship between Nepal and China became clear generally. During 1950-1954, India directed, even dominated Nepal in economy, politics, and culture. India did not want to see any actual improvement in China-Nepal relationship before the solution of Tibet problem. In the meantime, China and Nepal did not trust each other completely about their strategic aims. Nepal alerted and doubted China’s attitude towards Sino-Nepalian relationship,? the boarder between them and the threatens from CPN. On the other hand, the Chinese government worried that Nepal might be co-operator of the United States in secession of Tibet. Also, the Treaty of Thapathali between Tibet and Nepal was still in effect, it was still possible that Nepal took dangerous actions to maintain its special interest in Tibet. However, since the tension of anti-India grew in Nepal, the relationship between Nepal and China improved generally, and this went further after the CPN (M) seized the power and founded the coalition government.

? But nowadays, the two factions in India, which were CPN (ML) and CPN (M) before the combination, were not the same in the attitude towards China. Prachanda, as the leader of CPN (M), was closer to China, sending members of his party to China for visiting and studying, several times. He wrote an article Sino-Nepalian Relationship and the 100 Years of the Communist Party of China to review the friendship between Nepal and China. However, Oli, previously the leader of CPN (ML) was vague about China and India. According to the history, CPN (ML) was closer to India. From the aspect of reality, Oli claimed that he wanted to be a bridge of friendship between China and India. But, along with the military conflicts at the boarder between China and India, the disagreement in the two factions of CPN will be more severe, which might be a faction that shakes the stability of Nepal.

? From the aspect of world, as the only communist party in power in the International Red Corridor, the CPN will be a new force in anti-imperialism in the 21st century. However, in the pattern that the United States returned to Indo-Pacific, Nepal, being between China and the United States. will be inevitably involved into the conflicts between these two countries. Now, the CPN is facing the selections that if they regard India and the United States behind it as rival or even enemy.

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4.????? The Embarrassed Position of Nepal in the Current Industrial Chain and the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

? The current economic pattern of Nepal is badly import-dependent. In 2016, the trade deficit of Nepal was $8 billion, and it increased to $9.17 billion in 2017, and in the opposite, the export was only 8% of the import, and this ratio is becoming lower till now. The trade deficit is a great problem in the economy of Nepal, and especially during the pandemic of COVID-19, the price of commodity rises continuously, making the expenditure of foreign exchange of Nepal increases, too. On the other hand, tourism, as a pillar of Nepalian industry, could not maintain its ability in making foreign exchange during the pandemic, hence, once the foreign exchange reserves in Nepal is exhausted, the debt-ridden ruling party of Nepal government would not be able to fulfill the daily need of Nepalian people. As the United State claimed to return to Indo-Pacific area, the economy in Nepal was badly impacted due to the pandemic.

? What was worse was that wat the Nepal government did during the pandemic was unsatisfying. The pandemic was supposed to be a chance for the new CPN to show off and retreat the support of the people, but unfortunately, the CPN was busy in its infighting. The two co-chairs scrambled government power, blaming and even abusing each other. The economy in Nepal faces both internal and external troubles, which will also be troublesome to the CPN.

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5.????? Summary

? The crisis that the CPN is facing is a great challenge, and what decided the future, split or rebirth, of the CPN is that whether the CPN could overcome its tradition of infightings, whether it could find a balance point between China and India, and whether it could solve the problem that the production could not satisfy the domestic need. This also decides if the pattern in Indian Subcontinent will become in the favor of China and international communist movement. Now, I, the writer, am also not certain about this, what I could say is only “The Internationale will be the human race!”and “Workers of the world, unite!”