The saver’s dilemma

儲蓄者的困境

Low interest rates leave savers with few good options

低利率讓儲蓄者沒有什么好的選擇

The covid-19 pandemic has only sharpened the dilemma

新冠疫情加劇了這一困境

Oct 17th 2020 |?

IN THE 1980S?comedy, “Trading Places”, Jamie Lee Curtis plays a prostitute who has been saving for her future; she has $42,000 “in T-bills, earning interest”. If she followed the same strategy today, she would be disappointed with the return. The one-year Treasury bill yields 0.13%, so her annual interest income would be just $55. If she reinvested the income, it would take more than 530 years for her money to double.

在20世紀80年代的喜劇《顛倒乾坤》中，Jamie Lee Curtis飾演一名#女，她一直在為自己的未來存錢;她有42000美元的“短期國債，可賺取利息”。如果她今天采取同樣的策略，她會對回報感到失望。一年期美國國債的收益率為0.13%，因此她每年的利息收入只有55美元。如果她把收入再投資，她的錢需要530多年才能翻倍。

Savers around the world face the same problem. Bank accounts, money-market mutual funds and other short-term instruments used to offer a decent return. Not any more (see chart). Rates are lower in nominal terms than they were 30 years ago because of a long-term decline in inflation, but they are also lower in real terms. The pandemic has made the dilemma acute. This year American, British and German nominal ten-year bond yields have all touched their lowest levels in history.

世界各地的儲戶都面臨著同樣的問題。銀行賬戶、貨幣市場共同基金和其他短期投資工具可以提供可觀的回報?，F(xiàn)在不再是這樣了（見圖表）。由于通貨膨脹的長期下降，名義利率低于30年前，但實際利率也較低。流行病（今年疫情）使這一困境更加尖銳。今年，美國、英國和德國十年期債券的名義收益率都觸及了歷史最低水平。

Savers are likely to respond to this situation in one of three ways. They can save less, and spend more of their incomes. Another approach is to set aside more money, to make up for lower returns. A third option would be to put more savings into risky assets, such as equities, which should deliver a higher return over the long run.

儲戶可能會以三種方式中的一種來應對這種情況。他們可以減少儲蓄，增加支出。另一種方法是留出更多的錢，以彌補較低的回報。第三種選擇是將更多的儲蓄投入風險資產，比如股票，從長期來看，這應該會帶來更高的回報。

詞匯

Equity/股票

So what will savers actually do? Unfortunately, history is not a particularly helpful guide. You might think that central banks had looked into the question, given their low policy rates are intended to boost consumption (and thus the economy) and reduce how much people stash under their mattresses. But the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have done surprisingly little research into the subject.

那么儲戶實際上會怎么做呢?不幸的是，歷史并不是一個特別有用的指南?？紤]到央行的低政策利率旨在刺激消費(進而刺激經濟)并減少人們貯藏在床墊下的錢，你可能會認為央行已經對這個問題進行了研究。但令人驚訝的是，美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)和英國央行(Bank of England)對這個問題的研究很少。

詞匯

Stash/存放；貯藏

Mattress/床墊；褥子

More work has been done in Germany, where low interest rates are a hotter political issue. But this suggests that the impact of rates on savers’ behaviour is murky, at best. The Bundesbank has found that the level of returns has become less important over time as a determinant of savers’ behaviour. A study by Allianz, an insurer, also finds that other factors play a bigger role. The more money governments devote to social spending, for instance, the less people save, because they expect the state to help them in tough times. Demography also affects the saving rate: people tend to save more as they near retirement. But once retired, most live off their savings, so an increase in the number of retirees could cause the aggregate saving rate to fall. Research by Charles Yuji Horioka of Kobe University suggests that this has been the main cause of the long-term decline in Japan’s household-saving rate.

德國已經做了更多的工作，在那里，低利率是一個更熱門的政治問題。但這表明利率對儲戶行為的影響充其量是模糊的。德國央行發(fā)現(xiàn)，隨著時間的推移，作為儲蓄者行為決定因素的回報水平已變得不那么重要。保險公司安聯(lián)(Allianz)的一項研究也發(fā)現(xiàn)，其他因素發(fā)揮了更大的作用。例如，政府在社會支出上投入的資金越多，人們的儲蓄就越少，因為他們期望政府在困難時期幫助他們。人口結構也會影響儲蓄率:人們傾向于在臨近退休時增加儲蓄。但一旦退休，大多數人就靠儲蓄生活，所以退休人數的增加可能會導致總儲蓄率下降。神戶大學的Charles Yuji Horioka的研究表明，這是日本家庭儲蓄率長期下降的主要原因。

詞匯

Murky/黑暗的；朦朧的

To the extent one can tell, the historical relationship between rates and the level of savings seems to be weak. The Allianz study finds that, across Europe as a whole, for every one-percentage-point drop in interest rates, saving rates increased by 0.2 percentage points. Even then cause and effect is hard to disentangle. Central banks cut rates in response to bad economic news, and such news, rather than lower rates, may be the main reason that savers become more cautious. America’s saving rate fell from more than 10% before 1985 to less than 5% in the mid-2000s. That could have been related to the downward trend in rates. But shorter-term fluctuations seem to have been driven by recessions.

從某種程度上說，利率和儲蓄水平之間的歷史關系似乎很弱。安聯(lián)的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，在整個歐洲，利率每下降1個百分點，儲蓄率就會上升0.2個百分點。即便如此，因果關系也很難理清。中央銀行降低利率以應對壞的經濟消息，而這類消息，而不是低利率，可能是儲蓄者變得更加謹慎的主要原因。美國的儲蓄率從1985年前的超過10%下降到2000年代中期的不足5%。這可能與利率的下降趨勢有關。但短期波動似乎是由經濟衰退驅動的。

If history is an unreliable guide to what savers will do now, what signals can be gleaned from their behaviour so far this year? Anxiety about the pandemic helped push the saving rate in America to a record high earlier in the year; in August it was still relatively elevated, at 14.1%. The Investment Company Institute (ICI), a lobby group for American fund managers, reports that $115bn flowed into money-market (ie, short-term deposit) funds in March this year. “Fear came into discussions with clients,” says Andy Sieg, president of Merrill Lynch Wealth Management. “Their concern was safety of principal.” If you are worried about losing your job, then the return on your savings is a minor concern. The main thing is to have some.

如果歷史對于儲蓄者現(xiàn)在的行為不是一個可靠的向導，那么從他們今年迄今的行為中我們能收集到什么信號呢?今年早些時候，對流感大流行的焦慮將美國的儲蓄率推到了歷史新高;8月份該指數仍相對較高，為14.1%。美國基金經理的游說團體——投資公司學會(ICI)報告稱，今年3月有1150億美元流入貨幣市場(即短期存款)基金。美林財富管理總裁Andy Sieg表示:“恐懼源于與客戶的討論之中?！薄八麄冴P心的是本金的安全?！叭绻銚氖スぷ?，那么儲蓄的回報就不是什么大問題了。最重要的是要有一些儲蓄。

詞匯

Glean/收集（資料）

Principal/本金

?

Yet as the panic subsided some savers turned to another strategy, of piling on risk. The American stockmarket rallied, due in part to central-bank action. Many retail investors rushed in, buying shares through platforms such as Robinhood. With returns on bonds and cash so low, stocks seemed attractive, particularly as some offer a dividend yield that exceeds the return savers get in the bank. For investors who turned to shares in March, this wealth effect easily compensated them for the lower returns on other savings. This greater risk-taking is part of a longer-term trend. Mr Sieg says that, ten to 15 years ago, rich American retirees may have parked a lot of their savings in municipal bonds. Now they have a more diverse portfolio including equities and corporate debt.

然而，隨著恐慌消退，一些儲戶轉向了另一種策略，即增加風險。美國股市反彈，部分原因是由于央行的行動。許多散戶投資者蜂擁而入，通過Robinhood等平臺購買股票。在債券和現(xiàn)金回報率如此之低的情況下，股票似乎很有吸引力，尤其是當一些股票的股息收益率超過儲蓄者在銀行的回報時。對于3月份轉向股票的投資者來說，這種財富效應輕松彌補了他們在其他儲蓄上較低的回報。這種更大的風險是長期趨勢的一部分。Sieg先生說，10到15年前，富有的美國退休人員可能已經把他們的大部分儲蓄都投入到市政債券中。現(xiàn)在，他們的投資組合更加多樣化，包括股票和公司債券。

詞匯

municipal bond/市政債券

portfolio /投資組合

?

The approach of taking more risk to compensate for lower interest rates has not always paid off, though. America’s frothy stockmarket has been an outlier. Savers elsewhere have been less well compensated for risk. Britain’s FTSE?100 index is below its level in 1999. In Germany a boom in the 1990s did cause equities to rise from 20% to 30% of household assets. But when the bubble burst, retail investors’ enthusiasm waned. By 2015 shares were 19% of household assets. Japan’s stockmarket is still below its high in 1989. Around half of total household financial assets is still in cash and bank deposits, says Sayuri Shirai of Keio University.

不過，為彌補較低利率而承擔更多風險的做法并不總是奏效。美國充滿泡沫的股市是一個例外。其他地方的儲戶在風險方面得到的補償就沒那么好了。英國富時100指數低于1999年的水平。在德國，20世紀90年代的經濟繁榮確實導致了股票占家庭資產的比例從20%上升到30%。但當泡沫破滅時，散戶投資者的熱情減退了。到2015年，股票占家庭資產的19%。日本股市仍低于1989年的高點。慶應義塾大學的Sayuri Shirai說，大約一半的家庭金融資產仍然是現(xiàn)金和銀行存款。

詞匯

?Frothy/泡沫的

?

Moreover, not all savers are the same. Even in America, stockmarket gains have mainly accrued to the rich. The wealthiest 1% owns 56% of the stockmarket, up from 46% in 1990; the top 10% own 88% of the market. One way of thinking about this is that most people set aside cash for emergencies. Poorer people may be unable to save any more than that; rich ones can afford to venture into equities.

此外，并非所有的儲戶都是一樣的。即使在美國，股市收益也主要流向富人。最富有的1%擁有股市56%的股份，比1990年的46%有所上升;前10%的人擁有88%的市場份額。考慮這個問題的一種方式是，大多數人都留出現(xiàn)金以備不時之需。窮人可能無法存更多的錢;富有的人能夠承擔投資股票的風險。

?

Even if they don’t punt on stocks, ordinary workers in rich countries still have exposure to riskier assets through their pension schemes. But these tend to be quite small. The median balance in an American 401(k) plan for those aged 55 to 64 was only $61,738 in 2019. A pension of 4-5% of that pot amounts to just $2,500-3,100 a year. In Britain, where auto-enrolment has brought many low-income employees into the pension system, the median defined-contribution pot in 2019 was just ￡9,600 ($12,200). And the solvency of final-salary pension schemes has deteriorated as a result of the shifts in markets. When they calculate the cost of meeting their pension promises, funds have to discount the cost of their liabilities using bond yields; as yields have fallen sharply, these costs have risen. The average public-sector pension plan in America was 72.2% funded in 2019, down from 78.4% in 2009, according to the Centre for Retirement Research (CRR), despite the long bull market in shares.

即使富裕國家的普通工人不投資股票，他們仍然通過養(yǎng)老金計劃持有風險較高的資產。但這些都是很小的。2019年，55至64歲的410000美國人計劃的平均余額僅為61,738美元。其中4-5%的養(yǎng)老金相當于每年2500 - 3100美元。在英國，“自動登記”讓許多低收入員工加入了養(yǎng)老金體系，2019年固定繳費的中位數僅為9600英鎊(合12200美元)。而且，由于市場的變化，最終薪金養(yǎng)老金計劃的償付能力已經惡化。當他們計算滿足養(yǎng)老金承諾的成本時，基金必須用債券收益率折現(xiàn)其負債成本;隨著產量急劇下降，這些成本也隨之上升。根據退休研究中心(CRR)的數據，盡管股市處于長期牛市，但美國公共部門養(yǎng)老金計劃的平均資金投入從2009年的78.4%下降到2019年的72.2%。

詞匯

Punt/推掉工作; 踢懸空球

solvency /償付能力；溶解力

?

The danger is that individual savers faced with bewildering movements in markets and rickety pension schemes may choose to keep their savings in deposits. Many may lack access to financial advice, and are unaware of the scope for higher returns or indeed of the scale of savings they need to set aside to prepare for their old age. A worrying signal can be gleaned from Britain, where rules were changed in 2015 to allow people to withdraw money from their pension pots without using the proceeds to buy an annuity (which offers a guaranteed income). Annuity returns on bond yields were stingy, making them an unpopular choice.

危險在于，個人儲戶在面對市場混亂的波動和搖搖欲墜的養(yǎng)老金計劃時，可能會選擇將存款存進銀行。許多人可能得不到理財建議，也不清楚有多大的空間可以獲得更高的回報，也不清楚他們需要為養(yǎng)老準備多少儲蓄。從英國可以得到一個令人擔憂的信號，2015年，英國修改了相關規(guī)定，允許人們從養(yǎng)老金中提取資金，而不用使用收益來購買年金(這是一種有保障的收入)。債券收益率上的年金回報率很低，使得年金成為不受歡迎的選擇。

詞匯

rickety /搖晃的；虛弱的

?Annuity/年金，養(yǎng)老金；年金保險

With their savings stuck in cash elderly people around the world risk running out of money before they die. This is already happening in Japan. “The decline in interest rates to virtually zero has sharply reduced the interest income that the retired were counting on, requiring them to draw down their savings more than they had been planning to,” says Mr Horioka. Governments have long urged people to make provision for retirement, but low rates have made that harder to achieve. With society yet to square the circle, and rates going nowhere anytime soon, savers’ lives are set to get even more difficult.

由于他們的儲蓄被困在現(xiàn)金中，世界各地的老年人都面臨著死前錢就花光的風險。這已經在日本發(fā)生了。Horioka表示:“利率降至幾乎為零的水平，大幅降低了退休人員所依賴的利息收入，迫使他們比原先計劃的更多地動用儲蓄?！遍L期以來，政府一直敦促人們?yōu)橥诵葑龊脺蕚?，但低利率使得這一目標更難實現(xiàn)。由于社會還沒有做好萬全之策，利率在短期內不會有任何變化，儲蓄者的生活將變得更加困難。