American Economic Review 2023年第2期

Vol. 113 No. 2 February 2023

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——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨

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1.Technological Change and the Consequences of Job Loss

技術(shù)變革和失業(yè)的后果

J. Carter Braxton

Bledi Taska

We examine the role of technological change in explaining the large and persistent decline in earnings following job loss. Using detailed skill requirements from the near universe of online vacancies, we estimate technological change by occupation and find that technological change accounts for 45 percent of the decline in earnings after job loss. Technological change lowers earnings after job loss by requiring workers to have new skills to perform newly created jobs in their prior occupation. When workers lack the required skills, they move to occupations where their skills are still employable but are paid a lower wage.

我們考察了技術(shù)變革在解釋失業(yè)后收入持續(xù)大幅下降中的作用。利用在線職位空缺的詳細技能要求，我們按職業(yè)估計了技術(shù)變革，發(fā)現(xiàn)技術(shù)變革占失業(yè)后收入下降的45%。技術(shù)變革降低了失業(yè)后的收入，因為它要求工人擁有新技能，才能在之前的職業(yè)中從事新創(chuàng)造的工作。當工人缺乏所需的技能時，他們就會跳槽到他們的技能仍然可以就業(yè)但工資較低的職業(yè)。

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2.Trade with Correlation

貿(mào)易關(guān)聯(lián)

Nelson Lind

Natalia Ramondo

We develop a trade model with correlation in productivity across countries. The model spans the full class of generalized extreme value import demand systems and implies that countries with relatively dissimilar technology gain more from trade. In the context of a multisector trade model, we provide a tractable and flexible estimation procedure for correlation based on compressing highly disaggregate sectoral data into a few latent factors related to technology classes. We estimate significant heterogeneity in correlation across sectors and countries, which leads to quantitative predictions that are significantly different from estimates of models assuming independent productivity across sectors or countries.

我們開發(fā)了一個各國生產(chǎn)率具有關(guān)聯(lián)性的貿(mào)易模型。該模型涵蓋了廣義極端價值進口需求系統(tǒng)的全部類別，并暗示技術(shù)相對不同的國家從貿(mào)易中獲得更多。在多部門貿(mào)易模型的背景下，我們提供了一個易于處理和靈活的相關(guān)性估計程序，其基礎是將高度分解的部門數(shù)據(jù)壓縮為與技術(shù)類別相關(guān)的幾個潛在因素。我們估計不同部門和國家之間的相關(guān)性存在顯著異質(zhì)性，這導致定量預測與假設不同部門或國家之間生產(chǎn)率獨立的模型的估計存在顯著差異。

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3.Constrained-Efficient Capital Reallocation

受限有效的資本再配置

Andrea Lanteri

Adriano A. Rampini

We characterize efficiency in an equilibrium model of investment and capital reallocation with heterogeneous firms facing collateral constraints. The model features two types of pecuniary externalities: collateral externalities, because the resale price of capital affects collateral constraints, and distributive externalities, because buyers of old capital are more financially constrained than sellers, consistent with empirical evidence. We prove that the stationary equilibrium price of old capital is inefficiently high because the distributive externality exceeds the collateral externality, by a factor of two when we calibrate the model. New investment reduces the future price of old capital, providing a rationale for new-investment subsidies.

我們在一個投資和資本再配置的均衡模型中刻畫了面臨抵押品約束的異質(zhì)性企業(yè)的效率。該模型具有兩種貨幣外部性:抵押品外部性(因為資本轉(zhuǎn)售價格影響抵押品約束)和分配外部性(因為舊資本的買家比賣家更受融資約束)，這與經(jīng)驗證據(jù)一致。我們證明了舊資本的固定均衡價格是低效率的，因為分配外部性超過了抵押品外部性的兩倍。新投資降低了舊資本的未來價格，為新投資補貼提供了理由。

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4.Enabling or Limiting Cognitive Flexibility? Evidence of Demand for Moral Commitment

促進還是限制了認知靈活性?需要道德承諾的證據(jù)

Silvia Saccardo

Marta Serra-Garcia

Moral behavior is more prevalent when individuals cannot easily distort their beliefs self-servingly. Do individuals seek to limit or enable their ability to distort beliefs? How do these choices affect behavior? Experiments with over 9,000 participants show preferences are heterogeneous—30 percent of participants prefer to limit belief distortion, while over 40 percent prefer to enable it, even if costly. A random assignment mechanism reveals that being assigned to the preferred environment is necessary for curbing or enabling self-serving behavior. Third parties can anticipate these effects, suggesting some sophistication about the cognitive constraints to belief distortion.

當個人不能輕易地自我服務地扭曲他們的信念時，道德行為就更加普遍。個人是否會試圖限制或使自己扭曲信念的能力得以發(fā)揮?這些選擇是如何影響行為的?超過9000名參與者的實驗表明，偏好是異質(zhì)的——30%的參與者傾向于限制信念扭曲，而超過40%的參與者傾向于允許它，即使代價高昂。隨機分配機制揭示了被分配到首選環(huán)境對抑制或啟用自我服務行為是必要的。第三方可以預見到這些影響，這表明關(guān)于信念扭曲的認知約束的一些復雜性。

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5.Droughts, Deluges, and (River) Diversions: Valuing Market-Based Water Reallocation

干旱、洪水和(河流)改道:評估基于市場的水再分配

Will Rafey

This paper develops and applies a method to value water trading on a river network. The framework relies on regulatory variation in diversion caps to identify production functions for irrigated farms, then uses the estimated shadow values to assess the market's reallocation. I apply this framework to the largest water market in human history, located in southeastern Australia. Observed water trading increased output by 4–6 percent from 2007 to 2015, equivalent to avoiding an 8–12 percent uniform decline in water resources. Reallocation and average surplus both increase substantially during drought, implying that water markets can be most valuable when climatic variability is most severe.

本文提出并應用一種計算水網(wǎng)水交易價值的方法。該框架依賴于分流上限的監(jiān)管變化來確定灌溉農(nóng)場的生產(chǎn)函數(shù)，然后使用估計的影子值來評估市場的重新分配。我將這一框架應用于位于澳大利亞東南部的人類歷史上最大的水市場。從2007年到2015年，觀察到的水交易使產(chǎn)量增加了4 - 6%，相當于避免了水資源8 - 12%的均勻下降。再分配和平均過剩都在干旱期間大幅增加，這意味著當氣候變化最嚴重時，水市場可能最有價值。

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6.Technology Gaps, Trade, and Income

技術(shù)差距、貿(mào)易和收入

Thomas Sampson

This paper quantifies the contribution of technology gaps to international income inequality. I develop an endogenous growth model where cross-country differences in R&D efficiency and cross-industry differences in innovation and adoption opportunities together determine equilibrium technology gaps, trade patterns, and income inequality. Countries with higher R&D efficiency are richer and have comparative advantage in more innovation-dependent industries. I calibrate R&D efficiency by country and innovation dependence by industry using R&D, patent, and bilateral trade data. Counterfactual analysis implies technology gaps account for one-quarter to one-third of nominal wage variation within the OECD.

本文量化了技術(shù)差距對國際收入不平等的貢獻。我開發(fā)了一個內(nèi)生增長模型，在該模型中，研發(fā)效率的跨國差異、創(chuàng)新和采用機會的跨行業(yè)差異共同決定了均衡技術(shù)差距、貿(mào)易模式和收入不平等。研發(fā)效率越高的國家越富有，在更多的創(chuàng)新依賴型產(chǎn)業(yè)上具有比較優(yōu)勢。我使用研發(fā)、專利和雙邊貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)，對不同國家的研發(fā)效率和不同行業(yè)的創(chuàng)新依賴進行了校準。反事實分析表明，在經(jīng)合組織內(nèi)部，技術(shù)差距占名義工資變化的四分之一至三分之一。

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7.Electronic Food Vouchers: Evidence from an At-Scale Experiment in Indonesia

電子食品券:來自印度尼西亞大規(guī)模實驗的證據(jù)

Abhijit Banerjee

Rema Hanna

Benjamin A. Olken

Elan Satriawan

Sudarno Sumarto

We compare how in-kind food assistance and an electronic voucher-based program affect the delivery of aid in practice. The Government of Indonesia randomized across 105 districts the transition from in-kind rice to approximately equivalent electronic vouchers redeemable for rice and eggs at a network of private agents. Targeted households received 46 percent more assistance in voucher areas. For the bottom 15 percent of households at baseline, poverty fell 20 percent. Voucher recipients received higher-quality rice, and increased consumption of eggs. The results suggest moving from a manual in-kind to electronic voucher-based program reduced poverty through increased adherence to program design.

我們比較了實物食品援助和電子代金券項目在實踐中對援助發(fā)放的影響。印度尼西亞政府在105個地區(qū)隨機分配了從實物大米到私人代理網(wǎng)絡中可兌換大米和雞蛋的大約同等電子憑證的過渡情況。在代金券地區(qū)，目標家庭獲得的援助增加了46%。對于處于基線水平的底層15%的家庭來說，貧困率下降了20%。獲得代金券的人獲得了更高質(zhì)量的大米，并增加了雞蛋的消費。結(jié)果表明，從手工實物項目轉(zhuǎn)向電子憑單項目，通過增加對項目設計的堅持，減少了貧困。

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8.The Voice of Monetary Policy

貨幣政策之聲

Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Tho Pham

Oleksandr Talavera

We develop a deep learning model to detect emotions embedded in press conferences after the Federal Open Market Committee meetings and examine the influence of the detected emotions on financial markets. We find that, after controlling for the Federal Reserve's actions and the sentiment in policy texts, a positive tone in the voices of Federal Reserve chairs leads to significant increases in share prices. Other financial variables also respond to vocal cues from the chairs. Hence, how policy messages are communicated can move the financial market. Our results provide implications for improving the effectiveness of central bank communications.

我們開發(fā)了一個深度學習模型來檢測在聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會會議后的新聞發(fā)布會上嵌入的情緒，并考察了檢測到的情緒對金融市場的影響。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在控制了美聯(lián)儲的行動和政策文本中的情緒后，美聯(lián)儲主席的積極語氣導致股價大幅上漲。其他金融變量也會對主席們的聲音做出反應。因此，政策信息的傳遞方式可以影響金融市場。本文的研究結(jié)果為提高中央銀行溝通的有效性提供了啟示。