Journal of Monetary Economics??2023年第2期

——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨

Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending: It’s all in the monetary-fiscal mix

財政預見性和政府支出的效果:這一切都在貨幣-財政組合中

Guido Ascari, Peder Beck-Friis, Anna Florio, Alessandro Gobbi

Announcements of future government spending have different effects on economic activity depending on the monetary-fiscal policy mix. Upon announcement, they are contractionary in the monetary regime but expansionary in the fiscal regime, in contrast with the expansionary nature of government spending at implementation in both regimes. Anticipation effects can therefore help empirically distinguish between the two regimes. Data support our theoretical insight, reconciling conflicting results in the empirical literature that disappear once conditioning on the policy regime. This evidence suggests that it could be (un)wise to anticipate future fiscal policies, depending on the regime in place.

根據(jù)貨幣-財政政策組合的不同，未來政府支出的公告對經(jīng)濟活動有不同的影響。在宣布后，它們在貨幣制度中是緊縮的，而在財政制度中是擴張性的，與這兩種制度中實施時政府支出的擴張性形成對比。因此，預期效應(yīng)有助于從經(jīng)驗上區(qū)分這兩種制度。數(shù)據(jù)支持我們的理論見解，調(diào)和了經(jīng)驗文獻中相互矛盾的結(jié)果，這些結(jié)果一旦受到政策制度的制約就會消失。這一證據(jù)表明，根據(jù)現(xiàn)行制度來預測未來的財政政策可能是(不明智的)。

Barriers to black entrepreneurship: Implications for welfare and aggregate output over time

黑人創(chuàng)業(yè)障礙:對福利和總產(chǎn)出的影響

Pedro Bento, Sunju Hwang

The number of black-owned businesses in the U.S. has increased dramatically since the 1980s, even compared to the number of non-black-owned businesses and the rise in black labor-market participation. From 1982 to 2012 the fraction black labor-market participants who owned businesses rose from 4 to 16 percent, compared to an increase of 14 to 19 percent for other participants. Combined with other evidence, this suggests black entrepreneurs have faced significant barriers to starting and running businesses and these barriers have declined over time. Interpreted through a model of entrepreneurship, we find declining barriers led to a permanent 14.4 percent increase in (consumption-equivalent) black welfare, a 5.2 percent increase in output per worker (compared to an observed 70 percent increase), and a 9 percent increase in the welfare of other labor-market participants. These impacts are in addition to any gains from declining labor-market barriers.

自20世紀80年代以來，美國黑人擁有的企業(yè)數(shù)量急劇增加，甚至與非黑人擁有的企業(yè)數(shù)量和黑人勞動力市場參與度的上升相比也是如此。從1982年到2012年，擁有企業(yè)的黑人勞動力市場參與者的比例從4%上升到16%，而其他參與者的比例則上升了14%到19%。結(jié)合其他證據(jù)，這表明黑人企業(yè)家在創(chuàng)業(yè)和經(jīng)營企業(yè)方面面臨著重大障礙，這些障礙隨著時間的推移而減少。通過創(chuàng)業(yè)模型解釋，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)壁壘的下降導致黑人福利(消費等額)永久性增長14.4%，人均產(chǎn)出增長5.2%(與觀察到的70%增長相比)，其他勞動力市場參與者的福利增長9%。這些影響是在勞動力市場壁壘下降帶來的好處之外產(chǎn)生的。

Rising earnings inequality and optimal income tax and social security policies

收入不平等加劇以及最優(yōu)所得稅和社會保障政策

Pavel Brendler

How did the US government preferences over income redistribution across generations and within generations change during 1980–2010? Using a rich quantitative model in which a Ramsey government chooses income taxation and Social Security, I decompose the total change in the actual policies into the impact of new economic and demographic conditions and government preferences. I find that the US government preferences have shifted toward more educated and older households since the 1980s. Preferences over income redistribution within and across generations interact and, therefore, must be analyzed jointly.

1980-2010年間，美國政府對代際和代際收入再分配的偏好發(fā)生了怎樣的變化?利用拉姆齊政府選擇所得稅和社會保障的豐富定量模型，我將實際政策的總變化分解為新的經(jīng)濟和人口條件以及政府偏好的影響。我發(fā)現(xiàn)，自上世紀80年代以來，美國政府的偏好已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)向受教育程度更高、年齡更大的家庭。代內(nèi)和代間對收入再分配的偏好相互影響，因此必須共同分析。

Monetary policy and intangible investment

貨幣政策與無形投資

Robin D?ttling, Lev Ratnovski

The investment and stock prices of firms with relatively more intangible assets respond less to monetary policy. Similarly, intangible investment responds less to monetary policy compared to tangible investment. These effects are most pronounced among financially constrained firms, indicating that corporate intangible capital weakens the credit channel of monetary policy transmission. The evidence that higher depreciation rates or higher adjustment costs of intangible assets explain these effects is mixed, suggesting a smaller role for these channels.

無形資產(chǎn)相對較多的企業(yè)的投資和股價對貨幣政策的反應(yīng)較小。同樣，與有形投資相比，無形投資對貨幣政策的反應(yīng)更小。這些效應(yīng)在融資約束企業(yè)中表現(xiàn)得最為明顯，表明企業(yè)無形資本弱化了貨幣政策傳導的信貸渠道。更高的折舊率或更高的無形資產(chǎn)調(diào)整成本可以解釋這些影響的證據(jù)好壞參半，表明這些渠道的作用較小。

Predicting the demand for central bank digital currency: A structural analysis with survey data

預測央行數(shù)字貨幣的需求:用調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)進行的結(jié)構(gòu)性分析

Jiaqi Li

What would be the potential demand for central bank digital currency (CBDC)? Which design attributes would affect the demand for CBDC? By applying a structural model to a unique Canadian survey dataset, I find that the aggregate CBDC holdings as a percentage of the total household liquid assets could range from 4–52%, based on households’ demand perspective. Allowing banks to respond to CBDC would substantially constrain the take-up of CBDC, reducing the upper bound prediction to below 20%. Important design attributes of CBDC identified are budgeting usefulness, anonymity, bundling of bank services, and rate of return.

對央行數(shù)字貨幣(CBDC)的潛在需求是什么?哪些設(shè)計屬性會影響對CBDC的需求?通過將結(jié)構(gòu)模型應(yīng)用于加拿大獨特的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)集，我發(fā)現(xiàn)，根據(jù)家庭的需求觀點，CBDC總持有量占家庭流動資產(chǎn)總額的百分比可能在4-52%之間。允許銀行對CBDC做出反應(yīng)將大大限制CBDC的使用，將上限預測降至20%以下。確定的CBDC的重要設(shè)計屬性是預算有用性、匿名性、銀行服務(wù)捆綁和回報率。

The liquidity channel of fiscal policy

財政政策的流動性渠道

Christian Bayer, Benjamin Born, Ralph Luetticke

Expansionary fiscal policy lowers the return difference between public debt and less liquid assets—the liquidity premium. We rationalize this finding in an estimated heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice, in which public debt affects private liquidity. This liquidity channel stabilizes fixed-capital investment. We then quantify the long-run effects of higher public debt and find little crowding out of capital, but a sizable decline of the liquidity premium, which increases the fiscal burden of debt. The revenue-maximizing level of public debt is positive and has increased to 60 percent of US GDP post-2010.

擴張性財政政策降低了公共債務(wù)和流動性較低資產(chǎn)之間的回報差，即流動性溢價。我們在一個估計的具有不完全市場和投資組合選擇的異質(zhì)代理新凱恩斯模型中對這一發(fā)現(xiàn)進行了合理化解釋，在該模型中，公共債務(wù)影響私人流動性。這一流動性渠道穩(wěn)定了固定資本投資。然后，我們量化了公共債務(wù)增加的長期影響，發(fā)現(xiàn)幾乎沒有擠出資本，但流動性溢價大幅下降，從而增加了債務(wù)的財政負擔。公共債務(wù)的收入最大化水平是正的，并在2010年后增加到美國GDP的60%。

Returns to scale, firm entry, and the business cycle

規(guī)?；貓?、企業(yè)進入和商業(yè)周期

Vladimir Smirnyagin

In the U.S. data, aggregate financial conditions play an important role in accounting for the formation of firms with high returns to scale. A version of a firm dynamics model with financial frictions and the ability of potential entrepreneurs to choose their returns to scale can match the data. In the estimated model, financial frictions slow the rate at which businesses with high returns to scale grow disproportionately; this discourages such firms from entering during recessions. The “missing generation” of firms with high returns to scale delays recoveries in the aftermath of economic crises.

在美國的數(shù)據(jù)中，總體財務(wù)狀況在解釋具有高規(guī)模回報的公司的形成方面發(fā)揮了重要作用。一個包含財務(wù)摩擦和潛在企業(yè)家選擇回報規(guī)模的能力的企業(yè)動態(tài)模型的版本可以與數(shù)據(jù)匹配。在估計的模型中，金融摩擦減緩了具有高規(guī)?；貓蟮钠髽I(yè)不成比例地增長的速度;這阻礙了這些公司在經(jīng)濟衰退期間進入。在經(jīng)濟危機過后，“失蹤的一代”公司的高回報規(guī)模會延遲復蘇。

Strategic referrals and on-the-job search equilibrium

戰(zhàn)略推薦和在職求職平衡

Ji-Woong Moon

Referrals are prevalent in the U.S. labor market. To understand their aggregate effects, this paper studies an equilibrium model of on-the-job search and job referrals. In the model, referrals are modeled as a strategic interaction between a referrer and a firm. The equilibrium model shows that referrals benefit job searchers whose outside option is above a threshold. I support this prediction by showing that the referral wage premium exists only for employed job searchers. Quantitatively, referrals contribute to the total output by 3.93% through transmitting information and reducing search costs. The information transmission explains about 28% of the effects.

轉(zhuǎn)診在美國勞動力市場很普遍。為了理解二者的綜合效應(yīng)，本文研究了在職求職與工作推薦的均衡模型。在該模型中，推薦人被建模為推薦人與企業(yè)之間的戰(zhàn)略互動。均衡模型表明，推薦對外部選擇高于閾值的求職者有利。我通過證明推薦工資溢價只存在于有工作的求職者中來支持這一預測。在數(shù)量上，通過傳遞信息和降低搜索成本，推薦對總產(chǎn)出的貢獻為3.93%。信息傳遞解釋了大約28%的影響。