TED 演講 | 研究了《紐約時報》上2000份訃告

Joseph Keller used to jog around the Stanford campus, and he was struck by all the women jogging there as well. Why did their ponytails swing from side to side like that? Being a mathematician, he set out to understand why.
約瑟夫·凱勒以前常繞著斯坦福大學(xué)校區(qū)慢跑,而他對許多同樣在慢跑的女性感到很震驚。為什么她們的馬尾辮會那樣左右掃來掃去呢?作為一名數(shù)學(xué)家,他開始探究原因。
?Professor Keller was curious about many things: why teapots dribble or how earthworms wriggle. Until a few months ago, I hadn't heard of Joseph Keller. I read about him in the New York Times, in the obituaries. The Times had half a page of editorial dedicated to him, which you can imagine is premium space for a newspaper of their stature.
凱勒教授對許多東西都很好奇:為什么茶壺上會沾水,還有蚯蚓是如何蠕動的。在幾個月前,我還從未聽說過約瑟夫·凱勒。我在《紐約時報》上讀到了他,出現(xiàn)在訃告中。《紐約時報》專門用了半幅版面來講述他,這也算是這種影響力的報刊里級別最高的版面了。
?I read the obituaries almost every day. My wife understandably thinks I'm rather morbid to begin my day with scrambled eggs and a "Let's see who died today.
"我?guī)缀趺刻於紩从嚫?。可以理解的是,我妻子覺得我相當(dāng)有病,我的每一天從一盤炒雞蛋開始,再加一句:“看看今天誰死了?!?
But if you think about it, the front page of the newspaper is usually bad news, and cues man's failures. An instance where bad news cues accomplishment is at the end of the paper, in the obituaries.
不過仔細(xì)想想,報紙的頭版通??堑亩际秦?fù)面新聞,暗示著人類的失敗。如果你想在負(fù)面新聞中找到一些好的成就,就得去末版的訃告里找了。
?In my day job, I run a company that focuses on future insights that marketers can derive from past data -- a kind of rearview-mirror analysis. And we began to think: What if we held a rearview mirror to obituaries from the New York Times? Were there lessons on how you could get your obituary featured -- even if you aren't around to enjoy it?
在日常工作時,我經(jīng)營一家公司,致力于提供對未來的預(yù)測,是從過去的企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)中分析得出的,算是一種后知后覺的分析。然后我們開始思考:要是我們用后知后覺方式來分析《紐約時報》上的訃告呢?你未來的訃告會怎么寫,它能教會你什么?雖然你本人已經(jīng)沒法活著拜讀了。?Would this go better with scrambled eggs?這樣的訃告是不是和炒雞蛋更配呢?
?And so, we looked at the data. 2,000 editorial, non-paid obituaries over a 20-month period between 2015 and 2016. What did these 2,000 deaths -- rather, lives -- teach us?
于是,我們研究了數(shù)據(jù)。2000份由報社編輯的無償?shù)挠嚫?,來?015和2016年里的20個月。這2000例死亡,或是說2000條生命,能教給我們什么呢??
Well, first we looked at words. This here is an obituary headline. This one is of the amazing Lee Kuan Yew. If you remove the beginning and the end, you're left with a beautifully worded descriptor that tries to, in just a few words, capture an achievement or a lifetime. Just looking at these is fascinating. Here are a few famous ones, people who died in the last two years. Try and guess who they are.
首先我們研究了用語。這是一個訃告的標(biāo)題。為了了不起的李光耀先生而寫。如果去掉開頭結(jié)尾,你會看到一段文字優(yōu)美、描述準(zhǔn)確的敘述辭,它嘗試用寥寥數(shù)語精確描述個人成就或是一生經(jīng)歷。僅僅是讀這些就已經(jīng)很令人著迷了。這有一些人物描述,是關(guān)于最近兩年去世的名人。嘗試猜猜他們是誰。
?[An Artist who Defied Genre] That's Prince.
“顛覆流派傳統(tǒng)的藝術(shù)家”這是美國歌手“王子”。
?[Titan of Boxing and the 20th Century] Oh, yes.
“二十世紀(jì)的拳擊巨人”沒錯。
?[Muhammad Ali]“拳王阿里”?[Groundbreaking Architect] Zaha Hadid.
“開創(chuàng)性的建筑師”扎哈·哈迪德。?
So we took these descriptors and did what's called natural language processing, where you feed these into a program, it throws out the superfluous words -- "the," "and," -- the kind of words you can mime easily in "Charades," -- and leaves you with the most significant words. And we did it not just for these four, but for all 2,000 descriptors. And this is what it looks like. Film, theatre, music, dance and of course, art, are huge.
然后我們對這些敘述辭做了一種叫做自然語言處理的操作,其實就是把文字放進(jìn)一個程序里,它會篩去多余的字詞,例如“這”、“和”,這種很容易能比劃明白的字,只把最重要的詞語留下。我們不止對上述4個標(biāo)題做了處理,而是整整2000份敘述辭。呈現(xiàn)的結(jié)果如下。電影,戲劇,音樂,舞蹈……當(dāng)然,還有藝術(shù)占比很大。
?Over 40 percent. You have to wonder why in so many societies we insist that our kids pursue engineering or medicine or business or law to be construed as successful. And while we're talking profession, let's look at age -- the average age at which they achieved things. That number is 37. What that means is, you've got to wait 37 years ... before your first significant achievement that you're remembered for -- on average -- 44 years later, when you die at the age of 81 -- on average.
超過四成了。你必須要細(xì)想看看,為何在許多社會中,我們會堅持讓我們的孩子從事工程、醫(yī)藥、商業(yè)、法律等工作,并認(rèn)定它們代表著成功。既然我們談到了職業(yè),讓我們再看看年齡。他們獲得成就的平均年齡。這個數(shù)字是37歲。這說明你必須要等上37年,才能首次獲得足以讓你留名的成就,這是平均值。44年后,在你81歲去世時才會留名,這也是平均值。?
Talk about having to be patient.這說明我們要有耐心。?Of course, it varies by profession. If you're a sports star, you'll probably hit your stride in your 20s. And if you're in your 40s like me, you can join the fun world of politics.
當(dāng)然這也因職業(yè)而異。如果你是運動明星,你多半會在20多歲時進(jìn)入巔峰。如果你像我一樣是個40來歲的人,你大概還能在政界搞出點名堂。
?Politicians do their first and sometimes only commendable act in their mid-40s.
政客在45歲左右才做出人生首件,也許是唯一值得稱道的事跡。
?If you're wondering what "others" are, here are some examples. Isn't it fascinating, the things people do and the things they're remembered for?
也許你會好奇"其他"是什么,這里有些例子。這些不是很有趣嗎?人們所做的事情,為人所銘記的事情??麥克斯·波伏娃:放棄科學(xué)成為邪教主教喬治·德·派爾斯:9位總統(tǒng)的裁縫卡羅·多達(dá):裸胸娛樂的先驅(qū)?
Our curiosity was in overdrive, and we desired to analyze more than just a descriptor. So, we ingested the entire first paragraph of all 2,000 obituaries, but we did this separately for two groups of people: people that are famous and people that are not famous. Famous people -- Prince, Ali, Zaha Hadid -- people who are not famous are people like Jocelyn Cooper, Reverend Curry or Lorna Kelly. I'm willing to bet you haven't heard of most of their names. Amazing people, fantastic achievements, but they're not famous. So what if we analyze these two groups separately -- the famous and the non-famous? What might that tell us?
我們的好奇心徹底控制不住了,我們不滿足于僅僅分析敘述辭。所以我們又分析了2000份訃告的第一段,但我們把訃告分為兩組來分析:一組是名人,一組是不出名的人。名人,例如“王子”、阿里、扎哈·哈迪德,不出名的人,例如喬斯琳·庫伯,加里牧師,羅娜·凱利等等。我敢說大多數(shù)名字你都沒有聽過。他們是杰出的人,有著杰出的成就,但并不出名。所以,如果我們分別分析這兩組,出不出名有什么區(qū)別?它會告訴我們什么呢??
Take a look. Two things leap out at me. First: "John.
"請看吧。兩樣?xùn)|西吸引了我的注意。第一:“約翰”。
?Anyone here named John should thank your parents -- and remind your kids to cut out your obituary when you're gone. And second: "help.
"所有名叫“約翰”的人要好好感謝父母。還要提醒你的孩子在你死后把你的訃告剪下來。第二:“幫助”。?
We uncovered, many lessons from lives well-led, and what those people immortalized in print could teach us. The exercise was a fascinating testament to the kaleidoscope that is life, and even more fascinating was the fact that the overwhelming majority of obituaries featured people famous and non-famous, who did seemingly extraordinary things. They made a positive dent in the fabric of life. They helped.
我們從這些杰出的生命中,從這些被文字記錄的人身上學(xué)到了好多東西。這種過程是對生命萬花筒的極好檢驗,而更加迷人的是,在絕大多數(shù)的訃告中,無論主角是否出名,他們都做了看似不平凡的事。他們在生命長河中留下了閃光的點滴。他們伸出了援手。
?So ask yourselves as you go back to your daily lives: How am I using my talents to help society? Because the most powerful lesson here is, if more people lived their lives trying to be famous in death, the world would be a much better place.
所以在日常生活中請捫心自問:我該如何用我的才能幫助這個社會?因為這其中最重要的道理就是:如果有更多的人在活著時多想想如何留下身后名,這個世界將會更加美好。