TED演講者：James Irungu Mwangi / 詹姆斯·伊倫古·姆旺吉

演講標題：Africa's great carbon valley -- and how to end energy poverty / 非洲的大碳谷 -- 以及如何終結(jié)能源貧窮

內(nèi)容概要：Our lives depend on curbing climate change, but so many priorities seem to be in competition. What's the most urgent thing humanity can do right now? Social entrepreneur James Irungu Mwangi tells us why Africa could be the ideal home for scaling the latest and most ambitious climate technologies -- including in places like Kenya's Hell's Gate National Park, which could become part of what he calls the "Great Carbon Valley."

我們的生命安全取決于我們是否能夠抑制氣候變遷，但是很多重要事項都在跟它競爭優(yōu)先性。什么是人類現(xiàn)在最急迫能作的事？社會創(chuàng)業(yè)家詹姆士．艾朗古．姆萬吉告訴我們?yōu)楹畏侵蘅梢允且?guī)?；钚?，也最有企圖心的氣候科技的理想歸宿——像是在肯亞的地獄門國家公園等地，未來就有可能成為他所述「大碳谷」的一部分。

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【1】Welcome to the gates of hell.

歡迎來到鬼門關

【2】Now depending on your frame of mind, that is either a bizarrely morbid or entirely appropriate way to start a talk about climate action in the year 2022.

根據(jù)你現(xiàn)在的心境 這會是一個謎之病態(tài) 或完全正確的 在2022啟動氣候行動討論的方法

【3】Behind me is a picture from the Hell's Gate National Park in the town of Naivasha, in the Great Rift Valley in my home country, Kenya.

在我的后方是一個地獄門國家公園的照片 它在東非大裂谷的奈瓦沙村 在我的家鄉(xiāng)肯亞

【4】Now its name may not scream “tourist trap,” but believe me, it is a beautiful part of the world and you should all try and visit sometime.

它的名字可能不讓人覺得 它是個「旅游陷阱」 但是相信我 它是世界上美麗的一部分 而你們有空都應該來看看

【5】But more importantly, it could play -- It has the potential to play a crucial role in the fight against global climate catastrophe.

但更重要的是它可以 它有擔任重要角色的潛能 在對抗全球暖化的危機中

【6】The most recent IPCC reports are clear.

聯(lián)合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC） 最新的報告十分清楚

【7】Humanity has left cutting emissions too late.

人類太晚開始減少碳排放量了

【8】Any realistic path to avoiding unacceptable levels of warming now requires us to not only drastically cut emissions, at least halving them by 2030, but also undertake an equally massive effort to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere at an accelerating rate.

任何避免無法接受程度暖化的實際方法 都要求我們不僅是劇烈地減少碳排放量 至少在2030年前要砍半 但也要采取同樣龐大的努力 去移除大氣層中的溫室氣體 而且是加速地

【9】Now, let's be clear.

我們在這裏說明白了

【10】Greenhouse gas removal is not and cannot be an excuse for continuing to emit.

溫室氣體的移除不是也不可以是 繼續(xù)排放它的藉口

【11】Just as installing seat belts and airbags is not an excuse for deliberately ramming your car into a wall.

就像安裝安全帶與安全氣囊不可以是 故意開你的車去撞墻的藉口

【12】(Laughter) Indeed, current estimates suggest that even with drastic emissions reductions, the world will need to be removing between five and 16 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere every single year by 2050.

（笑聲） 確實 現(xiàn)今的估計數(shù)值建議 即使大量的減少碳排放 世界也會需要每年從大氣層中移除 50~160億噸的二氧化碳 在2050年前

【13】Now to give you a sense of the scale of that, the low end of that range, five billion tons, that's bigger than the size of the global petroleum industry in 2020.

現(xiàn)在若要給你一個規(guī)模的概念 剛才估計的保守數(shù)值,五十億噸 比2020年的全球全球石油工業(yè)還要巨大

【14】So let's not kid ourselves that carbon removal, at anywhere close to the scale that we will need in order to survive, is some sort of easy way out.

所以我們不要騙我們自己 說減少碳排放 在接近我們需要生存的程度 是一個容易的辦法

【15】It is going to be damn difficult to do.

它會非常之艱難

【16】So how do we do it?

那麼我們應該如何去做它？

【17】Well, the first and most familiar measures would be interventions such as reforestation and landscape restoration.

首先,也是最熟悉的措施是干預 像是重新造林與恢復景觀

【18】Essentially giving Mother Nature the time and space to heal herself.

本質(zhì)上就是給大地 休養(yǎng)生息的時間與空間

【19】In addition, we can increase the amount of carbon held in our soils through the widespread application of biochar and enhanced weathering of chemically suitable rocks.

再加上我們可以增加 土地中的含碳量 透過生物碳的廣泛運用 以及增強風化化學性適合的石頭

【20】We estimate that in Africa alone, something like 100 million to 680 million additional tons of carbon dioxide could be drawn from the atmosphere using these types of methods.

我們估計光是非洲 大約1億到6.8億噸的多余二氧化碳 就能用這種方法從大氣中移除

【21】However, they do require a lot of land, a lot of water and a lot of other natural resources that may limit the extent to which we can scale them.

不過這些需要大量的土地 大量的水以及大量的自然能源 就有可能會限縮我們這項措施的規(guī)?；?/p>

【22】Moreover, they are subject to some of the feedback loops from the climate change that we are already experiencing, such as more frequent and intense wildfires.

而且他們也會受到有些 我們已經(jīng)在經(jīng)歷的 氣候變遷的回饋環(huán)影響 像是更頻繁而劇烈的野火

【23】And all of that means we are going to need to supplement them with technologies that accelerate and amplify natural processes to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

這所有都代表著我們需要用 科技來輔助它們 能夠加速跟放大自然作用的科技 來移除大氣的二氧化碳

【24】Enter the members of my new favorite boy band.

在此引進我最近的死忠男團

【25】DAC, BECCS and BiCRS.

直接空氣碳捕獲(DAC)、生物能源與碳捕獲和儲存(BECCS) 跟生物體碳移除與儲存(BiCRS)

【26】(Laughter) These are a set of engineered approaches that use physical, chemical and biological processes to gather and concentrate carbon dioxide from the atmosphere before safely sequestering it, usually underground.

（笑聲） 這些是一組的工程方法 利用物理、化學與生物作用 來集中跟濃縮大氣中的二氧化碳 再安全的將它隔離起來 通常在地底

【27】As more people run the climate math, you're seeing growing levels of interest and investment in these technologies, with billions of dollars already being committed to early pilots and installations in various parts of the world, particularly in Europe and North America.

當更多人開始計算氣候的數(shù)字 你正看見這些科技的興趣與投資在成長 數(shù)十億的資金已經(jīng)投入在早期試驗 及世界各地的建設中 尤其是在歐洲和北美

【28】But the reality is they have a very long way to go.

但現(xiàn)實是他們還有很長一段路要走

【29】To date, engineered removals around the world have accounted for something like 100,000 tons of carbon dioxide removed total.

至今世界各地的工程碳移除 也不過占了大概十萬噸的 總碳移除量

【30】To get to the multi-billion-ton scale we’re going to need by 2050 is going to take a truly epic process of exponential scaling.

如果要達成我們2050年需要 的數(shù)十億噸數(shù)量級 將會需要一個史詩級的 指數(shù)型成長過程

【31】Probably means we need to get to something -- If we want to have a realistic shot at it, we need to get to something like 100 million tons per year by 2030.

約莫代表著如果我們想要達成什么 如果我們想要真的有個機會 我們在2030年前需達成大約 每年一億噸的速度

【32】For those of you running the calculators, that's a thousand-fold increase in less than a decade.

給那些在按計算機的人 我們十年內(nèi)需要成長1000倍

【33】And guess what?

猜猜還有什么？

【34】We will have to continue that insane rate of growth for another two decades after that.

我們會要繼續(xù)維持這個瘋狂的成長率 在那之后的二十年

【35】And here's the really bad news.

而且最糟的消息是

【36】Anything close to that level of scaling of this industry in the places where it’s currently being piloted presents some really difficult climate action trade offs.

任何這個產(chǎn)業(yè)中 接近那個等級的規(guī)模成長 在那些他們正在被初期試驗的地方 會產(chǎn)生一些十分艱難的環(huán)境兩難

【37】For that, let me take the example of DAC or direct air capture.

對于它,讓我用DAC,或直接空氣捕獲 打個比方

【38】The best known DAC facility in the world is in Iceland.

世界上最為人所知的DAC設施在冰島

【39】It's the Orca plant in Iceland, it was inaugurated last year, 2021.

那是冰島的Orca廠房 它去年（2021）被啟用

【40】It uses plentiful green geothermal energy to capture carbon dioxide, dissolve it in water and inject it into porous basalt deep underground, where it chemically reacts to create a stable solid that can stay there for centuries.

它使用充足的永續(xù)地熱能 來捕獲二氧化碳并將其溶于水中 再將它注射進深埋地底的多孔玄武巖 在那里它會透過化學反應形成一個穩(wěn)定的固體 可以維持好幾個世紀

【41】It takes the equivalent of between two and three megawatt hours of energy to take a single ton of carbon dioxide today and render it in that way.

現(xiàn)在這個過程需要二至三百萬瓦時 才能捕獲一公噸的二氧化碳 并讓它成為那樣

【42】To get to the hundred million number in 2030, on that track, would entail something like 200 to 300 terawatt hours of electricity.

如果要在2030年前達成每年一億噸的速度 有望成功 會需要大約二至三百兆兆瓦時的電量

【43】Again, that's about half the electricity usage of Germany.

又來了 那大約是德國一半的用電量

【44】And all of that power would need to be renewable, otherwise, we would be taking two steps forward and one and a half steps back.

而且那些能源都會需要是可再生的 不然我們將會前進兩步 卻倒退一步半

【45】Now it's reasonable to expect and assume that we are going to see substantial improvements in energy efficiency of these technologies as we deploy them and learn to use them better.

雖然現(xiàn)在可以合理的期待并假設 我們會看見能源利用效率上重大的進步 在這些科技中 當我們部署并學習如何更佳的使用他們

【46】However, keep in mind that probably the most urgent thing we can do to slow climate change right now is stop current emissions.

但應該要在腦海中有的想法是 為延緩氣候變遷,最急迫的 是停止現(xiàn)在的碳排放

【47】And so scaling these technologies in places where we do have fossil fuel energy emissions that we could be curtailing does not make sense.

在我們有化石能源產(chǎn)生的溫室氣體排放的地方 可以直接限縮溫室氣體排放 提高這些科技的規(guī)模 并不合理

【48】Essentially, every unit of renewable energy that we are bringing on stream in places like North America and Europe should be going towards displacing and retiring existing fossil fuel capacity.

本質(zhì)上,每單位 我們在北美與歐洲等地 上線的可再生能源 應該要投入置換 與退役現(xiàn)在的化石能源容量

【49】And so the world is kind of stuck.

所以世界有點卡住了

【50】Right?

對吧？

【51】We need to scale this technology.

我們需要規(guī)?；@項科技

【52】We need to get DAC down the cost curve and up the efficiency curve urgently.

我們需要將DAC在成本曲線下降 在效率曲線上升

【53】Our lives literally depend on it.

我們的性命確實就靠它了

【54】But at the same time, we cannot do it except at the expense of other equally urgent climate imperatives.

但在同時,我們做不到它 除非我們犧牲其他同樣緊急的氣候措施

【55】So we need places in the world that somehow have three characteristics.

所以我們需要世界上有三項特色的地方

【56】A, they need to have the right geophysical conditions.

A、它們需要有恰當?shù)牡厍蛭锢項l件

【57】You know, plenty of porous basalt rock in a geothermally active zone is one such example.

你知道的,像在活動地熱區(qū)有 大量的多孔玄武巖 就是其中之一

【58】Two, they need to have plenty of renewable energy potential.

二來,它們需要有大量的可再生能源潛力

【59】And three, they need to have no current proximate emissions that that renewable energy could be used to displace.

第三點是 它們需要沒有直接的溫室氣體排放 是可再生能源可以頂替的

【60】And that brings us back to Hell's Gate National Park.

而這就將我們帶回地獄門國家公園

【61】Here's another view of the park from an angle that may explain its potential.

這是公園另一個視角的景觀 從一個可以解釋它的潛力的角度

【62】That is one of the power plants that together constitute the Olkaria Geothermal Energy Plant, which provides about a third of Kenya's electricity.

這是Olkaria地熱發(fā)電廠 的其中一個發(fā)電站 它提供了肯亞大概三分之一的電力

【63】That's right.

那就對了

【64】My home country not only has 92 percent renewable electricity being dispatched on its grids today, but its largest single-energy installation is seamlessly integrated into an honest-to-goodness national park.

我的家鄉(xiāng)不但有百分之九十二的可再生電力 在輸電網(wǎng)上傳輸 它最大的獨立能源設施 無縫接軌在一個貨真價實的國家公園里

【65】Literally, between the different plants you can see herds of zebra peacefully grazing all times of the day.

說真的,你可以在各種植物之間看到一群一群的斑馬 在一天的任何時段寧靜的吃草

【66】It's amazing.

很驚人

【67】Now at just under 1,000 megawatts, Olkaria is nothing to sneeze at.

如今接近1000百萬瓦的 Olkaria并不是等閑之輩

【68】It's one of the largest geothermal electricity installations in the world.

它是世界上最大的地熱電力設施之一

【69】But it's barely scratching the surface of the potential in Kenya.

但是它只不過是肯亞潛能的最表層而已

【70】There's 10 gigawatts of proven, high-quality geothermal resource in the country, widely recognized, ready to be tapped.

經(jīng)證實國家中存在10百萬千瓦 高品質(zhì)的地熱能源 廣泛被認可,亟需被利用

【71】And in addition, Kenya is endowed with excellent wind and solar resources that have also barely been exploited.

此外 肯亞也被上天賦予出色的風能與太陽能 兩者都幾乎沒有被利用

【72】We are on the equator, after all.

我們說到底還是在赤道上

【73】We estimate conservatively that there's about 50 gigawatts of potential deployable renewable energy in Kenya that can be readily accessed with the right level of investment.

我們保守估計肯亞大約有50百萬千瓦 的潛在可利用可再生能源 只要有足額的投資 隨時都可以存取

【74】And yet, Kenya remains an energy-poor country where, despite a lot of progress in recent years, more than a quarter of the population still does not have access to basic electricity.

但是肯亞卻依然是個能源不足的國家 即使近年有了很多的進步 超過四分之一的人口依然沒有 基本供電

【75】And those that do often pay prices that are almost three times as much as much as their counterparts in countries like India and China.

而那些有的人付的電價 幾乎是他們印度跟中國同儕的三倍之多

【76】Now you might be sitting there wondering, "Well, all right, James, if this is true, if Kenya has all of this renewable energy potential and all of these people in need of energy,

現(xiàn)在你可能坐在那邊想 「好,詹姆斯,如果這是真的 如果肯亞真的有這麼多 潛在的可再生能源 跟這麼多需要能源的人

【77】well, before we have this whole conversation about fancy climate tech, shouldn’t we first have a TED Talk about affordable energy access?”

那在我們討論高級氣候科技之前 我們不是應該先舉辦一個 可負擔能源使用權(quán)的TED Talk嗎？」

【78】And you would be right.

而你會是對的

【79】Were it not for a particularly cruel paradox of energy economics in countries like Kenya.

如果不是因為一個特別殘忍的環(huán)境經(jīng)濟悖論 在像是肯亞的國家

【80】You see, part of the reason why energy is so expensive in the country is those consumers who are on the grid have to pay for capacity that is not currently being used.

你看 能源在國內(nèi)這么昂貴的部分原因 是這些在輸電網(wǎng)上的消費者 需要為還沒被使用的電能付費

【81】There's something like 1,000 megawatt hours every day that goes begging because there isn’t sufficient industrial demand.

每天約莫1000百萬瓦的電能無人問津 因為沒有足夠的產(chǎn)業(yè)需求

【82】At the same time, those very same high energy prices make the country unattractive and uncompetitive for manufacturers and other users of energy looking for places to site their industries.

于此同時 那些高昂的電價 讓國家對制造商沒有吸引力與競爭力 對其他正在尋找設廠處的 能源使用者也是

【83】So to get this straight, the reason why the average Kenyan cannot get affordable access to clean, renewable energy despite all of this natural bounty, is this tremendously frustrating feedback loop where firstly, we would have all of that energy if someone invested in renewable power plants.

所以厘清這件事情 為何一般肯亞民眾無法用可以負擔的價格取得 干凈而可再生能源,即使有這么多的自然寶藏 是因為這個非常令人沮喪的回饋回圈 首先 我們會有那全部的能源 如果有人愿意投資可再生發(fā)電廠

【84】People would invest in those power plants if there was a lot of available industry to use the energy.

有人愿意投資可再生發(fā)電廠的前提是 有很多產(chǎn)業(yè)需要使用能源

【85】Available industry would come if energy costs weren’t so high.

有能源需求的產(chǎn)業(yè)如果 電價沒這么高才會進駐

【86】And energy costs wouldn’t be so high if there was enough demand.

如果需求量夠大電價就不會這么高

【87】It's enough to drive you crazy.

這足夠讓人瘋掉

【88】But it also points the way to a potential huge triple opportunity.

但它也指向一個潛在的 龐大的三角機會

【89】Firstly, introducing DAC and other energy-hungry climate technology into places like the Rift Valley would give them the space and capacity they need to really scale to planetary levels.

首先 將DAC與其他大量需要 能源的氣候科技引進 像是東非大裂谷的地方 這會給那些科技足夠的 空間和容量 去擴大到全球級的規(guī)模

【90】With no competition, with none of the trade-offs they would face in other parts of the world.

沒有其他的競爭者 也沒有他們在世界上其他地方 會需要面臨的犧牲

【91】At the same time, having that energy-hungry anchor industry available suddenly creates the basis on which people are willing to invest in expanding the country's renewable energy potential.

于此同時 當有渴求能源的產(chǎn)業(yè)作為錨點 就突然創(chuàng)造了人們愿意投資的基礎 在擴展國家的可再生能源潛力上

【92】Actually creating the business case for providing tens of millions of people with the productive energy they need to improve the quality of their lives.

實際創(chuàng)造企業(yè)案件 為提供數(shù)千萬計的人們 他們需要用來提升他們 生活品質(zhì)的豐富能源

【93】And thirdly, introducing these new and exciting technologies on the continent with the world's youngest and fastest-growing workforce could potentially activate their imaginations

第三者是 引進這些新而令人興奮的科技 在有著世界最年輕也成長 最快的勞動力的大陸上 有機會激發(fā)他們的想像力

【94】and their energies towards becoming climate innovators and solution builders themselves, basically building an army from the world's largest workforce to solve the world's biggest problem.

跟他們的精力朝向成為氣候創(chuàng)新者 與解決方案建造者 基本上就是利用世界上最大 的勞動力來建立軍隊 以解決世界最大的問題

【95】I call it the “Great Carbon Valley.” And it's just one of the ways in which Africa, as the continent, which, per capita, is the closest to net-zero and has contributed the least to climate change, can play a role in helping the planet avert climate disaster.

我叫它「大碳谷」 而它只是其中一種 非洲作為一個大陸 單位人口最接近零碳排放 對氣候變遷貢獻最少 可以在幫助地球避免 氣候災難中擔任的角色

【96】But in addition, it can do more and be the first continent to go substantially net-negative.

除此之外它還能做更多 成為第一個顯著負碳排的洲

【97】We're used to thinking about the continent in terms of its forests, its peatlands, its grasslands, its wetlands that need to be preserved.

我們習慣以需要保存的 森林、泥炭地、草地及濕地 來思考這片大陸

【98】And we should definitely continue to invest in the Indigenous communities, the smallholder farmers and the local innovators who are protecting and expanding natural carbon sinks.

我們也應該繼續(xù)投資當?shù)氐纳鐓^(qū) 那些小農(nóng)民與當?shù)氐膭?chuàng)新者 因為他們正在保護跟擴大自然碳庫

【99】But that should not blind us to the fact that Africa also provides an ideal potential home for scaling the latest and most ambitious of climate technologies.

但是這不應該阻礙我們看到事實 非洲能夠提供一個理想的可能歸宿 給最新也最有抱負的氣候科技增加規(guī)模

【100】Whichever of these narratives most speaks to you, one thing should be clear.

不論你對以上哪一個敘述 最有共鳴 有一件事情應該要是清楚的

【101】We need to shake the old, tired idea that Africa is a poor, hapless, helpless climate change victim.

我們必須擺脫那個老套的想法 説非洲是一個窮,倒楣 而無助的環(huán)境變遷受害者

【102】Instead, Africa and its people have the potential.

其實非洲與它的人民有潛能

【103】They can, and they should, be the world’s climate vanguard.

他們可以,也應該是世界的氣候先鋒

【104】Thank you.

謝謝大家

【105】(Applause and cheers)