The Economic journal?2023年第4期

Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023

——更多動(dòng)態(tài)，請(qǐng)持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

The Material basis of Cooperation: how Scarcity Reduces Trusting Behaviour

合作的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ):稀缺如何減少信任行為

Gustav Agnemanand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1265–1285,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac087

Trusting behaviour is a cornerstone of cooperation and, hence, economic performance, not least in poorer communities where economic transactions often rely on informal agreements. But trusting behaviour is potentially costly since the counterpart may decide to defect. In this study, we investigate whether food scarcity influences the level of trusting behaviour in rural Tanzania by leveraging quasi-experimental variation in food supply induced by the harvest. Through a lab-in-the-field experiment, we document that farmers display lower levels of trusting behaviour during the lean season compared to the abundant season and show that the difference is explained by variation in food scarcity.

信任行為是合作的基石，因此也是經(jīng)濟(jì)績(jī)效的基石，尤其是在經(jīng)濟(jì)交易往往依賴非正式協(xié)議的較貧窮社區(qū)。但信任行為的潛在代價(jià)是高昂的，因?yàn)閷?duì)方可能決定背叛。在本研究中，我們通過利用準(zhǔn)實(shí)驗(yàn)性的糧食供應(yīng)變化來研究糧食短缺是否會(huì)影響坦桑尼亞農(nóng)村的信任行為水平。通過一項(xiàng)實(shí)地實(shí)驗(yàn)，我們證明，與豐饒季節(jié)相比，農(nóng)民在豐饒季節(jié)表現(xiàn)出較低水平的信任行為，并表明這種差異可以通過食物稀缺的變化來解釋。

Shaking Legitimacy: The Impact of Earthquakes on Conflict in Historical China

震動(dòng)合法性:歷史上中國(guó)地震對(duì)沖突的影響

Ying Bai

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1286–1317,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead004

This paper examines the causal effect of political legitimacy on stability, using the historical case of Imperial China. Chinese rulers ascribed their legitimacy to a heavenly mandate. Calamities like earthquakes were considered to be a sign of weakened approval, making quakes a proxy for a negative legitimacy shock. I use quake-induced minor shaking (i.e., strong enough to be felt, but too weak to cause material damage) to demonstrate that legitimacy shocks cause more conflicts. I examine whether quakes serve as a coordination device to overcome collective action problems.

本文以中國(guó)帝制的歷史為例，考察政治合法性對(duì)穩(wěn)定的因果關(guān)系。中國(guó)統(tǒng)治者把他們的合法性歸因于天命。像地震這樣的災(zāi)難被認(rèn)為是認(rèn)可度下降的跡象，因此地震是負(fù)面合法性沖擊的代表。我用地震引起的輕微震動(dòng)(即，強(qiáng)烈到可以感覺到，但太弱而不能造成物質(zhì)損害)來證明合法性沖擊會(huì)導(dǎo)致更多的沖突。我研究地震是否可以作為一種協(xié)調(diào)手段來克服集體行動(dòng)問題。

The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How Large is the Transfer Multiplier

冠狀病毒刺激方案:轉(zhuǎn)移乘數(shù)有多大

Christian Bayerand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1318–1347,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead003

Abstract

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, large parts of the economy were locked down and, as a result, households’ income risk rose sharply. At the same time, policy makers put forward the largest stimulus package in history. In the United States it amounted to $2 trillion, a quarter of which represented transfer payments to households. To the extent that such transfers were (i) announced in advance and (ii) conditional on recipients being unemployed, they mitigated income risk associated with the lockdown—in contrast to unconditional transfers. We develop a baseline scenario for a COVID-19 recession in a medium-scale heterogeneous agent new Keynesian model and use counterfactuals to quantify the impact of transfers. For the short run, we find large differences in the transfer multiplier: it is negligible for unconditional transfers and about unity for conditional transfers. Overall, we find that the transfers reduced the output loss due to the pandemic by some two percentage points at its trough.

Long-Run Effects of Aid: Forecasts and Evidence from Sierra Leone

援助的長(zhǎng)期影響:來自塞拉利昂的預(yù)測(cè)和證據(jù)

Katherine Caseyand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1348–1370,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead001

Abstract

We evaluate the long-run effects of a decentralised approach to economic development called community-driven development—a prominent strategy for delivering foreign aid—by revisiting a randomised community-driven development program in Sierra Leone 11 years after launch. We estimate large persistent gains in local public goods and market activity, and modest positive effects on institutions. There is suggestive evidence that community-driven development may have slightly improved the communities’ response to the 2014 Ebola epidemic. We compare estimates to the forecasts of experts from Sierra Leone and abroad, working in policy and academia, and find that local policymakers are overly optimistic about the effectiveness of community-driven development.

Demand- Versus Supply-Side Climate Policies with a Carbon Dioxide Ceiling

有二氧化碳上限的需求側(cè)與供給側(cè)氣候政策

Thomas Eichnerand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1371–1406,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead002

Abstract

In a Hotelling model with a climate coalition and a free-riding fringe, we compare demand-side and supply-side climate policies aimed at keeping CO|$_2$|concentration below a ceiling equivalent to global warming of?|$2^\circ{\rm C}$|?. With the demand-side policy, the coalition caps its fuel demand. The corresponding allocation is intra-temporally distorted. With the supply-side policy, the coalition purchases deposits. The corresponding allocation is inter-temporally distorted and the fuel extraction path can be discontinuous. In an empirically calibrated economy, a medium-sized (the grand) coalition is stable with the demand-side (supply-side) policy. If the coalition acts strategically, the stable grand coalition implements first best.

Time of Day and High-Stake Cognitive Assessments

一天中的時(shí)間和高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)認(rèn)知評(píng)估

Alessio Gaggeroand?Denni Tommasi

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1407–1429,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac090

Abstract

A variety of external conditions may affect individual performance in high-stake cognitive assessments, with potentially lasting consequences on earnings and career. We provide the first causal evidence that the time of the day is an important condition affecting the performance at the moment of an evaluation. Exploiting a setting in which cognitive assessments are quasi-randomly assigned at a different time of day, we find that peak performance occurs in the early afternoon. The estimated time-of-day effects follow specific patterns consistent with the circadian rhythm, which suggests that biological factors are important determinants of performance even in economically meaningful settings.

Steering Fallible Consumers

引導(dǎo)容易犯錯(cuò)的消費(fèi)者

Paul Heidhuesand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1430–1465,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac093

Abstract

Online intermediaries with information about a consumer’s tendencies often ‘steer’ her toward products she is more likely to purchase. We analyse the welfare implications of this practice for ‘fallible’ consumers, who make statistical and strategic mistakes in evaluating offers. The welfare effects depend on the nature and quality of the intermediary’s information and on properties of the consumer’s mistakes. In particular, steering based on high-quality information about the consumer’s mistakes is typically harmful, sometimes extremely so. We argue that much real-life steering is of this type, raising the scope for a broader regulation of steering practices.

掌握消費(fèi)者傾向信息的在線中介通常會(huì)“引導(dǎo)”她購買更有可能購買的產(chǎn)品。我們分析了這種做法對(duì)“易犯錯(cuò)的”消費(fèi)者的福利影響，他們?cè)谠u(píng)估報(bào)價(jià)時(shí)犯了統(tǒng)計(jì)和戰(zhàn)略錯(cuò)誤。福利效應(yīng)取決于中介信息的性質(zhì)和質(zhì)量以及消費(fèi)者錯(cuò)誤的性質(zhì)。特別是，基于關(guān)于消費(fèi)者錯(cuò)誤的高質(zhì)量信息進(jìn)行指導(dǎo)通常是有害的，有時(shí)是極其有害的。我們認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)實(shí)生活中的許多轉(zhuǎn)向都是這種類型的，這提高了對(duì)轉(zhuǎn)向?qū)嵺`進(jìn)行更廣泛監(jiān)管的空間。

Connecting the Young: High School Graduates’ Matching to First Jobs in Booms and Great Recessions

連接年輕人:在繁榮和大衰退中，高中畢業(yè)生與第一份工作的匹配度

Lena Hensvikand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1466–1509,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead007

Using Swedish economy-wide data, we examine the relationship between business-cycle conditions and the use of social contacts in the process where young workers are matched to their first real jobs. We measure social contacts acquired during paid work during high school, and we rely on interacted class-establishment fixed-effect models to isolate the effects of interest. One-third of post-graduation matches are formed at establishments where youths worked during their studies. Graduates are much more likely to match with sites to which adult co-workers from these jobs have relocated. The importance of these job-finding channels is strongly counter-cyclical for young labour market entrants.

利用瑞典的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，我們研究了在年輕人找到第一份真正工作的過程中，經(jīng)濟(jì)周期條件與社會(huì)關(guān)系的使用之間的關(guān)系。我們測(cè)量了高中期間在帶薪工作中獲得的社會(huì)接觸，我們依靠互動(dòng)的階級(jí)建立固定效應(yīng)模型來隔離興趣的影響。三分之一的畢業(yè)后配對(duì)是在年輕人學(xué)習(xí)期間工作的場(chǎng)所進(jìn)行的。畢業(yè)生更有可能與這些工作的成年同事轉(zhuǎn)移到的網(wǎng)站匹配。對(duì)于進(jìn)入勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的年輕人來說，這些求職渠道的重要性具有很強(qiáng)的反周期性。

Ballot or Bullet: The Impact of the UK’s Representation of the People Act on Peace and Prosperity

選票還是子彈:英國(guó)人民代表對(duì)和平與繁榮的影響

Andrea Marcucciand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1510–1536,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac092

Abstract

Does democracy curb domestic political violence? To study this, we focus on the United Kingdom’s Representation of the People Act of 1867—which is a critical juncture in the history of democratisation. Constructing a novel borough (‘urban centre’) level dataset on social conflict events and economic performance around the 1868 elections (the first elections where newly enfranchised citizens could vote), we exploit arguably exogenous variation in enfranchisement intensity. We find a strong and robust peace-promoting effect of franchise extension and identify as a major channel of transmission the increase of the population’s political influence (voice) and local economic growth.

Optimal Fiscal Consolidation Under Frictional Financial Markets

摩擦性金融市場(chǎng)下的最優(yōu)財(cái)政整頓

Dejanir H Silva

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1537–1585,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead013

This paper studies optimal fiscal policy in a currency union subject to capital flow shocks in an economy with two main ingredients: (i) sticky prices and (ii) financially constrained arbitrageurs. Given capital outflows and high external debt, the fiscal authority faces a trade-off between stimulating the economy or paying off external debt. The planner reduces the value-added tax in the short run, while it raises and front-loads the sum of value-added tax and payroll taxes. It isnot?optimal to use spending to stimulate the economy. The country engages in a fiscal consolidation, as government debt falls compared with a passive fiscal policy.

本文研究了資本流動(dòng)沖擊下貨幣聯(lián)盟的最優(yōu)財(cái)政政策，經(jīng)濟(jì)中存在兩個(gè)主要因素:(1)粘性價(jià)格和(2)融資約束套利者。考慮到資本外流和高外債，財(cái)政當(dāng)局面臨著刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)或償還外債之間的權(quán)衡。該計(jì)劃在短期內(nèi)降低了增值稅，同時(shí)提高并提前負(fù)擔(dān)增值稅和工資稅的總和。用支出來刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)并不是最優(yōu)選擇。與被動(dòng)的財(cái)政政策相比，隨著政府債務(wù)下降，該國(guó)進(jìn)行了財(cái)政整頓。

Employment Decline During the Great Recession: the Role of Firm Size Distribution

大衰退期間的就業(yè)下降:公司規(guī)模分布的作用

Wenjian Xu

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1586–1625,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac091

Over 8,000,000 jobs were lost in the Great Recession, creating widespread economic hardship. This paper documents a novel and robust empirical regularity that highly concentrated local labour markets experienced larger employment declines during the Great Recession. Through setting up a model with heterogeneous firms facing idiosyncratic productivity shocks, I show that firm size distribution summarised by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index plays a crucial role in the reallocation of workers, and it magnifies negative idiosyncratic shocks and attenuates positive ones. I undertake a series of empirical tests to rule out alternative explanations, and show that large employment losses in concentrated labour markets are not driven by highly concentrated industry locations being hit harder during the Great Recession, having smaller labour markets or higher firm leverage ratios. The effect of concentration level is larger in sectors with higher labour supply elasticity, or a higher variance of productivity shocks, and rises during the Great Recession compared to other periods, consistent with my model’s predictions.

在大衰退中，超過800萬人失去了工作，造成了廣泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)困難。本文記錄了一個(gè)新穎而穩(wěn)健的經(jīng)驗(yàn)規(guī)律，即在大衰退期間，高度集中的本地勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)經(jīng)歷了更大的就業(yè)下降。通過構(gòu)建異質(zhì)性企業(yè)面臨特質(zhì)生產(chǎn)率沖擊的模型，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)，由赫芬達(dá)爾-赫希曼指數(shù)總結(jié)的企業(yè)規(guī)模分布對(duì)勞動(dòng)者的再分配起著至關(guān)重要的作用，它放大了負(fù)面特質(zhì)沖擊，減弱了正面特質(zhì)沖擊。我進(jìn)行了一系列的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，以排除其他解釋，并表明，在勞動(dòng)力集中的市場(chǎng)上，大量就業(yè)流失并不是由高度集中的行業(yè)所在地在大衰退期間受到更嚴(yán)重的打擊、勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)較小或企業(yè)杠桿率較高所導(dǎo)致的。在勞動(dòng)力供給彈性較高或生產(chǎn)率沖擊方差較大的行業(yè)，集中度水平的影響更大，并且在大衰退期間比其他時(shí)期有所上升，這與我的模型預(yù)測(cè)一致。

Shifting Punishment onto Minorities: Experimental Evidence of Scapegoating

將懲罰轉(zhuǎn)移到少數(shù)群體:替罪羊的實(shí)驗(yàn)證據(jù)

Michal Bauerand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1626–1640,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead005

Abstract

Do members of a majority group systematically shift punishment onto innocent members of an ethnic minority? We introduce an experimental paradigm, punishing the scapegoat game, to measure how injustice affecting a member of one's own group shapes punishment of an unrelated bystander. When no harm is done, we find no evidence of discrimination against the ethnic minority (Roma people in Slovakia). In contrast, when a member of one's own group is harmed, the punishment ‘passed’ onto innocent individuals more than doubles when they are from the minority, as compared to when they are from the dominant group.

Dynamics of Expenditures on Durable Goods: The Role of New-Product Quality

耐用品支出的動(dòng)態(tài):新產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量的作用

Fabio Bertolottiand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1641–1656,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead006

We study the role of new-product quality for the dynamics of durable-good expenditures around the Great Recession. We assemble a rich dataset on US new-car markets during 2004–12, combining data on transaction prices with detailed information about vehicles’ technical characteristics. During the recession, a reallocation of expenditures away from high-quality new models accounts for a significant decline in the dispersion of expenditures. In turn, car manufacturers introduced new models of lower quality. The drop in new-model quality persistently depressed the technology embodied in vehicles, and likely contributed to the slow recovery of expenditures.

我們研究了大衰退期間新產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量對(duì)耐用品支出動(dòng)態(tài)的影響。我們收集了2004-12年美國(guó)新車市場(chǎng)的豐富數(shù)據(jù)，將交易價(jià)格數(shù)據(jù)與汽車技術(shù)特征的詳細(xì)信息結(jié)合起來。在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間，支出從高質(zhì)量的新模式中重新分配導(dǎo)致支出分布顯著下降。反過來，汽車制造商也推出了質(zhì)量較低的新車型。新車質(zhì)量的下降持續(xù)抑制了汽車所體現(xiàn)的技術(shù)，并可能導(dǎo)致支出的緩慢恢復(fù)。

Dating the Lender of Last Resort

與最后貸款人約定

Kilian Riederand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 652, May 2023, Pages 1657–1676,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac089

Abstract

We exploit a fixed rule constraining central bank credit provision in a regression discontinuity framework to analyse counterparties’ behavioural responses to the (non-)receipt of liquidity during a crisis. In spring 1847, the Bank of England suddenly started rationing credit to avoid violating its gold reserve requirement. We show that counterparties that suffered rejection from the Bank were more likely to fail. Conditional on survival, rationed counterparties learned from their experience and changed their behaviour during a subsequent panic in fall 1847: they came to the discount window more often, but submitted smaller requests and relied less on central bank liquidity overall.