The next election already

下一次 選舉 已經(jīng) 開始

Series reboot

系列重啟

Donald Trump declares that he will make America great again, again

唐納德-特朗普宣稱，他將又一次使美國再次偉大

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1 YOU COULD tell something was afoot on the swampy, sweltering evening of November 15th in Palm Beach. The bridge to Mar-a-Lago, the opulent resort where Donald Trump resides, was thronged with fans who draped themselves, despite the humidity, in “Make America Great Again” flags—ambling, praying, tailgating. Inside the former president’s palace something extraordinary was indeed happening, in front of a swankier crowd—an assemblage of suits with red baseball caps and evening dresses with pearls. Mr Trump was there to announce formally a decision that he had already hinted at over the past year: that he would be embarking on a revenge bid to take back the presidency in 2024.

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11月15日炎熱的傍晚，在棕櫚灘的濕軟的土地上，你可以看出有些事情正在發(fā)生。通往唐納德-特朗普居住的豪華度假村——海湖莊園(Mar-a-Lago)的橋上擠滿了粉絲，他們不顧高溫潮濕，披著 "讓美國再次偉大"的旗幟，在橋上漫步、祈望、野餐。在這位前總統(tǒng)的豪宅里，確實發(fā)生了一些非同尋常的事情。在更多人面前--帶著紅色棒球帽、身著西裝珍珠晚禮服，特朗普先生正式宣布了一個他在過去一年中反復(fù)暗示的決定：他將在2024年開始報復(fù)性競選，奪回總統(tǒng)職位。

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2 Ever since he left the White House, shortly after the attempted insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th, Mr Trump has been plotting a comeback. He managed to keep a tight leash on the party throughout the midterm elections, meddling in primaries to pick candidates who most fervently endorsed the lie that Democrats had stolen the presidential election. Having restored himself to the helm of the party, the former president was preparing to crow after November 8th when Republicans expected to sweep back to power.

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1月6日，國會大廈叛亂未遂后不久，他離開了白宮，自此特朗普就一直在謀劃東山再起。在整個中期選舉中，他設(shè)法對黨內(nèi)進(jìn)行嚴(yán)格控制，插手初選，挑選那些對民主黨竊取總統(tǒng)選舉這一謊言極為認(rèn)同的候選人。在恢復(fù)了自己在保守黨內(nèi)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位后，這位前總統(tǒng)正準(zhǔn)備在11月8日之后滔滔不絕地夸耀自己的勝利，在那時共和黨人預(yù)計自己會重新奪取政權(quán)。

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3 That didn’t happen, however. The Senate remained in Democratic control, while Republicans scraped together the barest majority in the House of Representatives. The sycophants who ran in key races in the swing states of Arizona and Pennsylvania came up with naught. The performance was so sub-par that his advisers reportedly tried counselling him to delay the announcement. But contrition and humility are not Mr Trump’s thing. He simply took credit for the House flipping and blamed the bad results on other Republicans.

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然而，這并沒有發(fā)生。參議院仍然由民主黨控制，而共和黨人在眾議院勉強(qiáng)湊出了多數(shù)席位。在亞利桑那和賓夕法尼亞這兩個搖擺州的關(guān)鍵競選中，那些馬屁精們一無所獲。特朗普的表現(xiàn)是如此之差，據(jù)說他的顧問試圖勸說他推遲宣布勝利。但懺悔和謙遜不是特朗普先生的專長。他只是把眾議院的勝利功勞歸功于自己，并把惡果歸咎于其他共和黨人。

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4 There was little new in the speech, which was largely a rehashing of the hour-long stemwinders he has been delivering at political rallies for the better part of the year. He took his usual delight in claiming that “now we are a nation in decline” and “a failing nation”, recapitulating the theme of “American carnage” from his inaugural address by describing “blood-soaked streets” in cities that are “cesspools of violent crimes” and the invasion of fentanyl-toting illegal immigrants. His policy recommendations remained the same, with some updates for new culture-war battles over critical race theory and transgender children, though in addition to old proposals he now wants to execute drug-dealers. Once again, only he alone could fix it.

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演講中沒有什么新內(nèi)容，主要是重復(fù)他今年大部分時間在政治集會上長達(dá)一小時的演說。他像往常一樣高興地聲稱 "我們現(xiàn)在是一個正在衰落的國家"和"一個失敗的國家"，通過描述“暴力犯罪的污水池”，城市中的“血跡斑斑的街道"和持有芬太尼（一種易成癮的藥物）的非法移民入侵，重述了他在就職演說中的"美國大屠殺"主題。他的政策建議依然如故，只是針對批判性種族理論和變性兒童的新文化戰(zhàn)爭進(jìn)行了一些更新，不過除了舊的建議之外，他現(xiàn)在還想處決毒品交易商。他再一次強(qiáng)調(diào)，只有他可以解決這個問題。

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5 But the fighting words were delivered with less verve. Perhaps the weight of the midterms embarrassment pressed down, or the mountain of legal inquiries, or the prospect of a two-year-long campaign. The light behind the eyes had dimmed. “I’m a victim, I will tell you,” he said in the most heartfelt portion of the speech.

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但是，這些戰(zhàn)斗性的話語卻沒有之前那么有魄力。也許是因為中期選舉的尷尬局面，或者是堆積如山的法律調(diào)查，又或者是長達(dá)兩年的競選前景。眼睛后面的光已經(jīng)暗淡了。"我是一個受害者，我會告訴你"，這是他演講中最真摯的部分。

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6 Mr Trump’s haste to re-enter the fray can be explained by two things. First, the Department of Justice is investigating whether or not he improperly took classified materials from the White House; the congressional January 6th committee has spent more than a year unravelling the effort to overturn the election result; prosecutors in Georgia are examining his exhortation to election officials to “find” enough votes for him to secure victory. Prosecuting a former president for this was already fraught and unprecedented, presenting difficult paths to trial and conviction. That he is also an active presidential candidate—with a good chance at winning his party’s nomination again, and, Democrats must admit, the general election, too—makes prosecution even harder.

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之所以特朗普先生急于重新進(jìn)入戰(zhàn)場，可以用兩件事來解釋。首先，司法部正在調(diào)查他是否破壞了規(guī)矩，從白宮拿走了機(jī)密材料； 1月6日，國會委員會花了一年多的時間來闡釋推翻選舉結(jié)果的努力；佐治亞州的檢察官正在審查他對選舉官員的敦促，為他 "找到"足夠的選票以確保勝利。起訴一位前總統(tǒng)已經(jīng)很麻煩了，而且這是前所未有的，審判和定罪都很困難。他還是一名活躍的總統(tǒng)候選人--很有可能再次贏得黨內(nèi)提名。而且，民主黨人必須承認(rèn)：在總統(tǒng)大選中，起訴更加困難。

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But, more important, his tight hold over the party is starting to be questioned, with elites searching for a way out that does not endanger their chance of maintaining power. Previous periods of questioning have usually been prompted by some whopping scandal—the revelation of the “Access Hollywood” tape in the closing days of the 2016 election, the praising of white supremacists who rallied in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, or the campaign to delegitimise elections that ended in the sacking of the Capitol. In all cases, these doubts eventually subsided because Republicans reasoned that the man won them elections, and they could not work out a way to do so without him.

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但是，更重要的是，他對黨的嚴(yán)格控制開始受到質(zhì)疑，精英們正在尋找一條不危及他們自己權(quán)力的出路。以前的質(zhì)疑通常是由一些巨大丑聞引起的--在2016年大選的最后幾天，"走進(jìn)好萊塢"錄像帶曝光，在2017年在弗吉尼亞州夏洛茨維爾集會上，對白人至上主義者的贊揚，或以洗劫國會大廈的方式來結(jié)束選舉的非法活動。哪怕在這些不利情況下，疑慮最終都被平息了。因為共和黨人認(rèn)為，特朗普為他們贏得了選舉。沒有特朗普，共和黨人束手無策。

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8 The midterms have called that into question. Mr Trump lost Republicans the House in his own midterm elections in 2018; he lost the presidential election in 2020; he almost singlehandedly lost Republicans the Senate in the Georgia run-off elections held in 2021; and in 2022 he arguably kept the Senate in Democratic hands by boosting the campaigns of novice candidates. A morally compromised winner Republicans could live with; a morally compromised loser is less enticing.

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中期選舉對這一點提出了質(zhì)疑。特朗普先生在2018年執(zhí)政期的中期選舉中讓共和黨失去了眾議院；他在2020年在總統(tǒng)選舉中落??；在2021年舉行的佐治亞州第二輪選舉中，他幾乎以一己之力讓共和黨失去了參議院；而在2022年，他可以說是憑借推動新手候選人，將參議院拱手相讓。共和黨人可以接受一個在道德上有所欠缺的贏家；而一個在道德上有所欠缺的失敗者則沒那么有吸引力。

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9 By declaring early Mr Trump hopes to freeze out his potential rivals to lead the party, such as Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, and Glenn Youngkin, the governor of Virginia— both of whom the former president has already taken to sniping at. At his announcement speech at Mar-a-Lago, Mr Trump had the grace to refrain from reiterating his criticisms of them (he had branded one “Ron De Sanctimonious” and criticised the other for having a Chinese-sounding surname). Perhaps that is why the former president did not appear to be having much fun. He has always relished the personality-bashing aspects of politics, and much less to the dull business of making federal policy.

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通過提前宣布參加競選，特朗普先生希望將他的潛在競爭對手擋在黨內(nèi)，如佛羅里達(dá)州州長羅恩-德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)和弗吉尼亞州州長格倫-楊金(Glenn Youngkin)--前總統(tǒng)已經(jīng)對他們進(jìn)行了抨擊。在海湖莊園的宣布演講中，特朗普先生很有風(fēng)度地避免重申對他們的批評（他曾將其中一人稱為 "羅恩-道貌岸然"，還批評另一人有一個聽起來像中國人的姓氏）。也許這就是為什么這位前總統(tǒng)看起來并不怎么開心。他總是喜歡政治中的人格攻擊，而對制定聯(lián)邦政策的枯燥事務(wù)不太感興趣。

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10 He also avoided repeating his claims that the presidential election was stolen. If his advisers and speechwriters managed to keep him in check for one evening, they should not expect to do so over the two-year campaign for the presidency that now awaits them.

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他還避免重復(fù)關(guān)于總統(tǒng)選舉被盜的說法。如果他的顧問和演講稿只能控制住特朗普一個晚上，他們不應(yīng)該指望在未來的兩年總統(tǒng)競選中也能做到。

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11 Away from the presidential struggle, the midterm fallout is being felt in other ways. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican congressman who expected to be easily made Speaker of the House, secured such a small majority of seats that the truculent Freedom Caucus will be able to exact big concessions by threatening his removal.

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在總統(tǒng)斗爭之外，中期選舉的影響還體現(xiàn)在其他方面。共和黨議員凱文-麥卡錫(Kevin McCarthy)希望輕松地成為眾議院議長，但他只獲得了多數(shù)席位的一小部分，至于脾氣暴躁的眾議院自由黨團(tuán)將通過罷免的威脅來要求他作出重大讓步。

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12 In the Senate Mitch McConnell, the party’s minority leader, faced an unsuccessful challenge from Rick Scott, the senator from Florida. Although Mr Scott chaired the party committee in charge of ensuring a Senate majority, he blames Mr McConnell for the lacklustre result because he had expressed some displeasure at the Trumpian slate of candidates. Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the party since 2017, is also facing down a possible insurrection of her own. Even if all are ultimately unsuccessful, they reflect the anxieties of a party that must once again decide if the pact with Mr Trump is worth it.

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在參議院，該黨的少數(shù)派領(lǐng)袖米奇-麥康奈爾(Mitch McConnell)面臨著來自佛羅里達(dá)州參議員里克-斯科特(Rick Scott)的挑戰(zhàn)，但并未成功。盡管斯科特先生擔(dān)任了負(fù)責(zé)確保參議院多數(shù)席位的黨委主席，但他將這一不理想的結(jié)果歸咎于麥康奈爾先生，因為他對特朗普的候選人名單表示了一些不滿。自2017年以來擔(dān)任該黨主席的羅娜-麥克丹尼爾(Ronna McDaniel)也面臨著可能發(fā)生的黨內(nèi)叛變。即使最終都沒有成功，他們也反映了一個政黨的焦慮，該黨必須再次決定與特朗普先生的協(xié)議是否值得。

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13 Time and time again, the elected Republicans have balked when presented with opportunities to distance themselves from Mr Trump. The next few months will offer another one. At the moment, other contenders, including Trump administration officials like the former vice-president Mike Pence, who just released a memoir somewhat critical of his boss, are jostling for position but are unlikely to immediately declare their candidacies. Mr DeSantis would probably wait until after the Florida legislative session ends in May. Being the only major declared candidate might give Mr Trump the opportunity to consolidate slipping support within the party. It might also leave him the one most exposed to attacks from within. “The journey ahead of us will not be easy,” Mr Trump warned in his speech. “Anyone who truly seeks to take on this rigged and corrupt system will be faced with a storm of fire that only a few could understand.” This sense of apocalyptic anxiety is widely shared.

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當(dāng)選的共和黨人在面臨與特朗普先生保持距離的機(jī)會時，一次又一次地退縮。接下來的幾個月將提供另一個機(jī)會。目前，其他競爭者，包括像前副總統(tǒng)邁克-彭斯(Mike Pence)這樣的特朗普政府官員，正在爭奪職位，但共和黨不太可能立即宣布他們的候選資格。德桑蒂斯先生可能會等到5月份佛羅里達(dá)州立法會議結(jié)束之后再宣布自己的候選資格。作為唯一宣布的主要候選人，特朗普先生可能有機(jī)會鞏固黨內(nèi)不斷下滑的支持率。這也可能使他成為最容易受到來自黨內(nèi)攻擊的人。"我們前面的旅程不會很容易，"特朗普先生在演講中警告說。"任何真正尋求向這個被操縱的腐敗系統(tǒng)發(fā)起沖擊的人，都將面臨著只有少數(shù)人能夠理解的困難。" 這種動亂前焦慮感得到了廣泛認(rèn)同。