今天推薦的演講者是：Wajahat Ali，發(fā)布于2019年的TED演講大會(huì)！

全球生育率，在過去的50年中降低了一半，且有持續(xù)走低的趨勢(shì)，新生人口數(shù)減少對(duì)于人類的未來意味著什么？生育看似是個(gè)人選擇，但卻與人類的未來，每一代人都息息相關(guān)！

I'm an exhausted dad. Currently owned and dominated by two mini dictators who rule my life with an iron fist while wearing their Huggies diapers. Now probably because I've been drowning in small people lately, I've been paying close attention to a particular headline.

我是一個(gè)精疲力盡的老父親。目前為兩個(gè)小獨(dú)裁者所有，受其支配，他們對(duì)我實(shí)行鐵腕統(tǒng)治，盡管還穿著尿不濕。或許是因?yàn)樽罱恢焙托『⒆哟谝黄?，我?duì)于一個(gè)話題格外關(guān)注。

It seems around the world, in developed countries, people are having fewer babies. From North America to Europe to China to Japan, there's actually been a consistent decline in birth rates. In fact, over the past 50 years, the global fertility rate has halved. What the heck is going on? Now, my friends who don't want kids all point to climate change as a reason for never having babies.

事實(shí)上，在過去的50年里，全球的生育率下降了一半。到底發(fā)生了什么？我身邊不想生孩子的朋友都把氣候變化說成是不要孩子的原因。

And many of you are sitting there right now, saying, "Waj, there's also overpopulation, there's also high birth rates, which still exist in many African and Middle Eastern countries, there's also orphan kids who still need parents, there's also a lack of resources to go around for everyone, and oh, by the way, we have a ginormous carbon footprint that is destroying this planet.

在座的很多人現(xiàn)在肯定想說：“嘿，人口過剩問題以及在很多非洲和中東國(guó)家仍然有高生育率，而且還有孤兒需要養(yǎng)父母，總體資源仍然處于不足，啊， 順便說一句，我們正面臨嚴(yán)重的碳排放問題，它正在毀滅地球。”

I hear you, I hear you. And yet, despite all this chaos, I still think we should have babies. I believe we can and should fight for the earth and humanity, side by side. Now, if I could take it personal for a second, I get it, I get why some of you might be skeptical about having babies. Here's a photo of my wife and me before we had kids.

我聽到了，都聽到了。但是盡管有這些聲音，我還是認(rèn)為我們應(yīng)該生孩子。我相信我們可以，且應(yīng)當(dāng)，為地球、為人類，并肩作戰(zhàn)。此刻，如果允許我暫時(shí)以己度人，我能理解為什么有些人對(duì)于要孩子持懷疑態(tài)度。這里有張照片，是我和我太太有孩子之前拍的。

Young, happy, fresh. Here's a photo of me after having kids. A broken, defeated husk of a man. Here's the photo of the car I thought I'd be driving as an adult. A Porsche. Here's what I actually drive. A Honda Odyssey minivan. For the minivan. Where there was once hope, now there is convenient space and good mileage, good mileage.

年輕，快樂，有活力。這一張照片是有孩子后的我，一名憔悴落魄的老父親。這是我以為，作為一名成年人我會(huì)開的車，一輛保時(shí)捷。這是我現(xiàn)實(shí)里的車，本田奧德賽家用車。說到家用車，現(xiàn)在我只在意舒適的空間，還有低油耗，還省油哦。

Now, I just want to stress that I'm completely aware of the very dire threats of global warming and climate change. I just want to acknowledge that choosing to have babies is a deeply, profoundly personal choice. And that many who want to are unable. But just for today, let's examine the flip side of the coin.在這里我想要強(qiáng)調(diào)，我完全了解全球變暖和氣候變化帶來的巨大而可怕的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。我只是想說明選擇生孩子是一個(gè)非常認(rèn)真而深刻的個(gè)人選擇。但很多人的選擇其實(shí)身不由己。不過今天在這里，我們來看看問題的另一面：

At how not having enough new people is going to be a major problem moving forward. According to the World Health Organization, we need to average about 2.1 children per woman today just so we have enough people to replace the previous generation. A lot of you thought overpopulation was going to be a problem in 100 years, yeah, it might be underpopulation.

新生人口不足將如何成為影響進(jìn)步的主要問題。根據(jù)世界衛(wèi)生組織的數(shù)據(jù)，基于當(dāng)前人口，每位女性平均需要生育2.1個(gè)子女才能保證有足夠的人口完成代際更替。很多人認(rèn)為在100年內(nèi)人口過剩將成為問題，但事實(shí)上，問題可能是人口稀缺。

So a question: what happens if that number dips below 2.1? There's going to be a domino effect. As all of us get older, and live longer, there's going to be a shrinking younger population, which is going to lead to rising labor shortages in the world's biggest economies. I'm talking about United States, China, Japan, Germany.

那么問題來了：如果女性人均生育數(shù)低于2.1會(huì)怎樣？這會(huì)引發(fā)一場(chǎng)多米諾效應(yīng)。當(dāng)所有人年齡逐步增加，平均壽命延長(zhǎng)，青年人口數(shù)量將不斷減少，這會(huì)導(dǎo)致勞動(dòng)力短缺，尤其是在世界幾大經(jīng)濟(jì)體國(guó)家。比如說美國(guó)、中國(guó)、日本、德國(guó)，

Fewer younger working people means less tax revenue. Less tax revenue means less money and resources to go to safety net programs that all of us are going to depend upon. I'm talking about pensions and health care. It seems every generation is indeed connected. But how the heck did we get here in the first place？

青年工作人口減少意味著稅收減少，稅收減少意味著更少的錢和資源來用于我們都將賴以生存的社會(huì)保障工程，也就是養(yǎng)老金和醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)?？雌饋砻恳淮似鋵?shí)都息息相關(guān)，但我們一開始是怎么會(huì)走到這條路上的呢？

Well, in some cases, it was intentional. Let's take the DeLorean to simpler times. Let's stop in China. Somewhere between the death of disco and "Empire Strikes Back", 1980. In 1980, China decided to implement the one-child policy, largely limiting most parents to having just one kid to combat overpopulation.

在某些情況下，這是人為造成的。讓我們跟著這輛德羅寧車回到更簡(jiǎn)單的時(shí)代，停下看看中國(guó)的情況，在迪斯科衰敗和帝國(guó)反擊戰(zhàn)之間的1980年代。1980年代，中國(guó)決定實(shí)施獨(dú)生子女政策，限制了大多數(shù)夫妻只能生育一個(gè)孩子以抑制人口過剩問題。

Check out some good old-fashioned Chinese propaganda, lovely. Now, fast-forward to 2019. Even after ending its one-child policy in 2015, China's birth rates have largely declined. In fact, the falling population in China is removing one of its biggest drivers of growth, people. If trends continue, China's population is actually going to peak in 2029, before entering "unstoppable decline."

來看看當(dāng)時(shí)中國(guó)的一些宣傳畫報(bào)，很漂亮?，F(xiàn)在，我們快進(jìn)到2019年。盡管在2015年中國(guó)停止了計(jì)劃生育，生育率仍然有顯著下降。事實(shí)上，中國(guó)的人口下降正在削弱其發(fā)展的最大推動(dòng)力——人口。如果這個(gè)趨勢(shì)繼續(xù)下去，中國(guó)的人口將在2029年達(dá)到頂峰，然后就開始進(jìn)入“無法阻止的下降”。

China's government is so freaked out right now that it's actually doing new propaganda, it's begging couples to have children for the country. Let's take the DeLorean and hop over to Japan, home of my beloved Honda Odyssey minivan. Japan is now producing more adult diapers than infant ones. The number of kids in Japan has fallen for the 37th straight year.

中國(guó)政府現(xiàn)在對(duì)此非常擔(dān)憂，并制作了新的宣傳政策——鼓勵(lì)夫妻們?yōu)榱藝?guó)家而生孩子。再來看看日本的情況，那是我愛的本田奧德賽家用車的故鄉(xiāng)。日本目前的成人紙尿褲產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)高于嬰兒紙尿褲，日本的兒童數(shù)量已經(jīng)連續(xù)37年呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì)。

And unlike other countries, it has not been able to replace its population numbers through immigrant workers. There will be labor shortages and not enough money to fund the safety-net programs. Now, Japan has introduced two solutions. First, a financial incentive. Some local governments in Japan have offered couples money to have babies, with the money increasing, with each additional child being born.

不同于其他國(guó)家，日本還無法通過外來移民工作者實(shí)現(xiàn)人口數(shù)量更替。日本將面臨勞動(dòng)力短缺，將沒有足夠的錢維持社會(huì)保障工程?，F(xiàn)在日本開始引入兩種解決方案。第一是經(jīng)濟(jì)激勵(lì)。日本一些地方政府向生育的夫妻提供經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)貼，生的越多補(bǔ)貼越多。

This actually worked for one year in 2014 in this town called Ama. It actually raised the birth rate from about 1.66 kids per woman to 1.8. But it did not gain traction across Japan. In 2018, a leader of Japan's ruling party tried a new tack. He told young people, "You're selfish for not having babies." Shockingly, shaming was not a rousing aphrodisiac. Surprise, I know, surprise.

這種方法2014年在Ama鎮(zhèn)產(chǎn)生了效果，當(dāng)年該地的女性人均生育數(shù)從1.66上升到了1.8，但縱觀日本全國(guó)這一方法并未取得顯著效果。2018年，日本執(zhí)政黨的一位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人嘗試了新方法，他告訴年輕人，“你們不生孩子是非常自私的行為?！绷钊苏痼@的是，羞辱并沒有產(chǎn)生激勵(lì)作用。太震驚了，我知道，

Who would have thought? Let's take the DeLorean to Europe, the continent of delicious cheeses, I love to eat but cannot pronounce. The UK and much of Western Europe has a birth rate of about 1.7 kids per woman, which at least is better than Hungary where it hovers around 1.45. Now, Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán has proposed a new solution to try to incentivize people to have kids.

誰能想到會(huì)這樣呢？現(xiàn)在再把目光移到歐洲，芝士的故鄉(xiāng)，我喜歡吃，就是不會(huì)讀。英國(guó)和西歐的一些國(guó)家女性人均生育數(shù)大約在1.7左右，這至少比匈牙利的1.45要好一些?，F(xiàn)在匈牙利首相維克托·歐爾班正推行一種新政以激勵(lì)人們生孩子。

He said families where the women have four or more kids will no longer pay income tax. Pretty good, right, pretty good. At least it's better than Russia's 2007 proposal, which once offered women in a particular region the opportunity of winning a fridge if they had more kids. Yeah, it didn't work, it didn't work. But hold on, pump the brakes.

他宣布育有四名或更多孩子的女性所在家庭可以永久不用繳納所得稅。很棒對(duì)不對(duì)？再怎么說也比俄羅斯2007年的提案好多了，當(dāng)時(shí)在俄羅斯某個(gè)特定區(qū)域，生育多的女性會(huì)被獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)一臺(tái)冰箱。好吧，這個(gè)政策也沒有什么效果。但別著急，我們言歸正傳，

Orbán is primarily proposing this because he wants to limit the population of Muslims and people of color. He says he doesn't think Hungary's traditions and culture and color has to be "mixed with those of others." Subtle. Unfortunately for Orbán and much of the EU, the birth rates are not high enough right now to be replenished without immigration.

歐爾班一開始提出這個(gè)提案的目的是想限制穆斯林和有色人種的人口數(shù)量。他表示他不認(rèn)為匈牙利的傳統(tǒng)、文化和膚色一定要“和其他民族進(jìn)行融合”。這很微妙。很不幸，無論是匈牙利還是多數(shù)歐盟國(guó)家，就目前的生育率而言，都無法在沒有移民人口的情況下實(shí)現(xiàn)代際更替。

Among EU countries, there is a demographic decline. So it seems, in Europe, karma is going to be brown and Muslim. Just saying. The question remains: Why aren't people having enough kids? Why is the birth rate declining in these countries? In some cases, it's because women are more literate, more educated.

縱觀歐盟各國(guó)，都呈現(xiàn)人口下降趨勢(shì)。所以在歐洲，棕色皮膚和穆斯林將是大勢(shì)所趨。我只是說說而已。那么還是這個(gè)問題：為什么兒童人口數(shù)不足？為什么這些國(guó)家的生育率在降低？在有些國(guó)家，這是由于女性的受教育程度較以前更高了。

They have more economic opportunities, applaud. All good things, all good things, yes. In India, this has been fantastic, it has actually reduced the birth rate but kept it above that magic 2.1 number. Women also have more access to birth control, more control over their reproductive lives, all good things. But in the United States, in particular, a lot of young people are opting out of having kids largely cite the same reason: financial concerns.

她們?cè)诮?jīng)濟(jì)上有了更多的機(jī)會(huì)——為她們喝彩。沒錯(cuò)，這都是好的現(xiàn)象。印度的情況則非常神奇，生育率確實(shí)下降了，但仍然保持在神奇的2.1之上。女性對(duì)計(jì)劃生育有了更多的控制，對(duì)育齡也有了更多的掌控。這都是很棒的變化。但是在另一些區(qū)域，尤其是美國(guó)，很多年輕人拒絕生育給出的都是同一個(gè)原因：經(jīng)濟(jì)上的考量。

Let's take the DeLorean to my motherland, the United States of America, where the birth rate hit its historic low in 2017. The United States is the most expensive country in the world to give birth. If you do not have insurance, it will cost you 32,000 dollars to have a baby, if everything goes perfectly. That's like buying a brand new Honda Odyssey minivan, OK?

我們一起來到我的故鄉(xiāng)，美國(guó)，2017年美國(guó)生育率達(dá)到歷史新低。在全世界范圍內(nèi)，美國(guó)是生育花費(fèi)最高的一個(gè)國(guó)家。如果你沒有保險(xiǎn)，生一個(gè)孩子大概要花3.2萬美元，這還是在一切順利的理想情況下。這差不多能買一輛新的本田奧德賽了好嘛！

So, congratulations, you just had a baby, but the baby's economic productivity is zero, and guess what? The United States is the only industrialized country in the world that does not require employers to offer paid parental leave. "Mom, you just had a baby, congratulations, that's lovely. Get back to work or you're fired, young mom!"

那么，恭喜你，假如你剛剛生了一個(gè)孩子，但這個(gè)孩子的經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)力為0，而且你知道嗎？美國(guó)是世界上唯一一個(gè)不強(qiáng)制執(zhí)行帶薪產(chǎn)假的工業(yè)國(guó)家。“年輕的母親，恭喜你剛生了個(gè)孩子，真可愛，快回去工作，否則你就要被辭退了！“

My wife and I, both working parents, pay about 3,500 dollars a month, a month, in Virginia for childcare. If you do the math, that's 40,000 dollars a year. That's like buying a brand new, souped-up Honda Odyssey minivan, OK. I have one, I do not need 10. So here's my bold suggestion. Let's make it easier for people to have babies.

我和我太太都是全職工作者，在弗吉尼亞州每月找人看孩子大約要花3500美元。算算看，一年就是4萬美元。這簡(jiǎn)直可以買一輛全新高配的本田奧德賽了啊！我有一輛了，不需要再買十輛了。所以這是我大膽的建議。讓生養(yǎng)孩子更容易一些吧。

It seems in order to invest in our future, we actually have to invest in the present and help those people who want to become parents. Give them affordable health care, give them affordable childcare, give them paid parental leave. Among the EU states in 2017, France reported the highest birth rates. Why?

看起來為了將來，我們現(xiàn)在就要開始努力，幫助那些希望為人父母的夫妻。為他們提供能承受的醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)，為他們提供合適的兒童保育，為他們提供帶薪產(chǎn)假。2017年，法國(guó)生育率在歐盟居于首位。為什么會(huì)這樣？

Largely due to its pronatal policies that actually kept women in the workforce. I'm talking about subsidized daycare and paid maternal leave. China and Japan, thank God, are finally wisening up and proposing such policies. This is great. That being said, I know some of you have listened to me, and you still think the best investment we can make in the future is not having babies.

很大程度上是因?yàn)槠渖邔?duì)職業(yè)女性的保護(hù)。包括有補(bǔ)貼的兒童托管及帶薪育兒假。感謝上帝，中國(guó)和日本終于也醒悟了，開始推行類似的政策。這真是太棒了。我知道你們很多人聽我說了這么多，還是覺得我們能對(duì)未來進(jìn)行的最好投資就是不生孩子。

I respect that. I get where you're coming from. And I know many of you in this audience want to have babies, but you are terrified about the future. And as a parent, I feel you. I'm scared about the future. I wrote that last line a month ago. But it really hit home three days ago for me while I was at TED. Three days ago, my wife calls me, crying.

我尊重你們的選擇。我知道你們?yōu)槭裁磿?huì)這么想。我也知道在座的很多人想要生孩子，但你們對(duì)未來充滿恐懼。作為一個(gè)父親，我感同身受。我對(duì)未來感到害怕。一個(gè)月前我寫下了這句話。但是三天前的一件事才是直擊要害，當(dāng)時(shí)我正在TED。三天前，我的妻子哭著給我打電話，

I pick it up in my hotel room. And she said, "I'm calling from the hospital." We had to take my baby daughter Nusayba, who was named after a warrior princess, to the hospital because she found a bump on the stomach. We got back the results, and there were bumps all around her liver. Today, this morning, we found out that she has stage IV liver cancer.

我在酒店房間里接到電話，她說，“我正在醫(yī)院打電話?！蔽覀兊男∨畠篘usayba，得名于一位勇敢的公主，因?yàn)槲咐镉袀€(gè)腫塊而被送到醫(yī)院。檢查結(jié)果顯示她的肝臟中有很多腫塊。今天早上，我們得知她已經(jīng)是肝癌四期。

It has been a challenging week. It has been a challenging week. And if I may, I just want to take a moment to acknowledge the TED staff, everyone, top-down, everyone in the back, in the green room, some of the speakers, word has spread. On behalf of my family, my wife, and my parents, my Pakistani parents said I had to say this, thank you for just being decent and kind this week.

這一周對(duì)我來說太挑戰(zhàn)了。太挑戰(zhàn)了。如果可以，我想占用一點(diǎn)時(shí)間，感謝TED的所有工作人員，上上下下每個(gè)人，幕后的、綠幕室的、以及其他演講者。我謹(jǐn)代表我的家庭、我的太太，以及父母，我來自巴基斯坦的父母讓我一定要說：謝謝你們?cè)谶@一周對(duì)我的友好和善意，

So thank you. These are my beloveds, my Ibrahim and Nusayba, my babies. I talked to my wife and despite the terrible news and the fight ahead, we both concluded that we regret nothing. Deciding to have babies was the best decision we ever made. Our babies have brought us so much joy and they've brought the world so much joy and having kids is a risk, but life is a risk.

真的非常感謝。這是我的摯愛，我的寶貝Ibrahim和Nusayba。我和我太太聊過，盡管有這樣可怕的消息和接下來的一場(chǎng)苦戰(zhàn)，我們都覺得毫不后悔。覺得要孩子是我們一生中做過最好的決定。我們的孩子帶給我們和這個(gè)世界如此多的快樂，生孩子確實(shí)是一場(chǎng)冒險(xiǎn)，但人生就是一場(chǎng)冒險(xiǎn)。

And yes, I hope you've been paying attention we need to invest in babies in developed countries if we want to help save our economy and pensions. But that's not the reason you have babies. That's not the main reason. Babies have always represented humanity's best, boldest, most beautiful infinite possibilities. And if we in developed countries, as a whole, opt out, and don't invest in present and future generations, then what the hell's the point?

是的，我希望你們都已經(jīng)注意到，在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家我們需要有更高的生育率以促進(jìn)或是拯救經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)保障體系。但這不是你們生育的原因。至少不是主要的原因。孩子總是能代表人性中最美好、最迷人的無限可能性。如果身處發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的我們，從整體上選擇拒絕，對(duì)這一代和下一代不抱有希望，那人生還有什么意義？

What's the point of being on this absurd journey together? And so, for those who can and who choose to, for those who can and who choose to have kids, may you pass on this beautiful thing called life with kindness, generosity, decency and love.Thank you.

這荒謬的人生還有什么意義？那么對(duì)于那些有能力的人，那么對(duì)于那些有能力并選擇生育的人，愿你們傳承這名為生命的美好之物，心懷善良、寬容、體面、與愛。謝謝。