今天我們一起精讀《The。Economist》2023.6.3刊：

Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

全球生育率大崩潰，經(jīng)濟后果影響深刻

The baby-bust economy

嬰兒荒經(jīng)濟

What might change the world’s?dire?demographic trajectory?

什么才能改變可怕的世界人口趨勢

Dire

/?da??r/

adj.極其嚴重的;危急的;極糟的;極差的

living in dire poverty

生活赤貧

Such action may have dire consequences .

這種行為可能產(chǎn)生嚴重后果。

【導讀】

人口問題或許是21世紀最受關(guān)注的議題之一。去年，統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)顯示，..人口創(chuàng)下近60年新低，每年新生兒低于一千萬。前不久，日本也爆出相關(guān)新聞，日本新生兒首次跌破創(chuàng)紀錄的80萬。前天，日恩首相表示，今后將額外拿出250億美金的津貼——寧可讓原本就負債累累的日本政府繼續(xù)承擔更多負債——也要希望能提高出生率。這種案例到處可見。排除移民因素，所有發(fā)達國家都存在嚴重的出生率下降問題。

近期，英國《The。Economist》刊登了專題報道，跟大家分享一下不同的視角。

這篇文章共12段，加油！

譯文及學習筆記：

*序號按照原文段落順序排列

*中文譯文為筆者自譯，僅供學習交流使用，如有任何錯誤或不同意見，誠請批評指正!

1

In the roughly 250 years since the Industrial Revolution the world’s population, like its wealth, has exploded. Before the end of this century, however, the number of people on the planet could shrink for the first time since the Black Death. The root cause is not a surge in deaths, but a slump in births. Across much of the world the fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, is collapsing.?Although the trend may be familiar, its extent and its consequences are not.?Even as artificial intelligence (ai) leads to surging optimism in some quarters, the baby bust hangs over the future of the world economy.

從工業(yè)革命后的大約250年間，世界人口和世界財富一樣爆發(fā)式增長。然而，這個世紀結(jié)束前，地球總?cè)丝诔霈F(xiàn)了自黑死病以來的首次下降。根本原因不是死亡率激增，而是出生率的斷崖式下降。世界大部分地區(qū)的生育率，即每名婦女生育的孩子數(shù)量，都在下降。雖然這種趨勢很多人并不感到意外，但其程度和結(jié)果卻尚未被人充分理解。雖然人工智能激發(fā)了一些人樂觀的情緒，但世界經(jīng)濟的未來仍在嬰兒荒陰影的籠罩之中。

2

In 2000 the world’s fertility rate was 2.7 births per woman, comfortably above the “replacement rate” of 2.1, at which a population is stable. Today it is 2.3 and falling. The largest 15 countries by?GDP?all have a fertility rate below the replacement rate. That includes America and much of the rich world, but also India, neither of which is rich but which together account for more than a third of the global population.

2000年，世界生育率是每位婦女平均生育2.7個孩子，遠遠超出2.1的“替代率”，當時人口還很穩(wěn)定。如今生育率是2.3，并且還在繼續(xù)下降。GDP最高的前15個國家的生育率均低于替代率。這包括了美國在內(nèi)的大部分發(fā)達國家，也包括印度和..，雖然都不是發(fā)達國家，但人口加起來超過世界的三分之一。

replacement rate

人口替代率是為使一個國家或某個區(qū)域在人口上出生與死亡達到某種相對的平衡而產(chǎn)生的一個比率，即每個婦女平均生小孩的個數(shù)，去扭轉(zhuǎn)失調(diào)或保持平衡狀態(tài)。聯(lián)合國推算指出，標準的人口替代率為2.1。

3

The result is that in much of the world the patter of tiny feet is being?drowned out?by the clatter of walking sticks. The prime examples of ageing countries are no longer just Japan and Italy but also include Brazil, Mexico and Thailand. By 2030 more than half the inhabitants of East and South-East Asia will be over 40. As the old die and are not fully replaced, populations are likely to shrink. Outside Africa, the world’s population is forecast to peak in the 2050s and end the century smaller than it is today. Even in Africa, the fertility rate is falling fast.

帶來的結(jié)果是世界的大部分地方，蹣跚學步的啪嗒聲將被拐棍的拄地聲淹沒。老齡化國家的典型例子將不再是日本和意大利，還會包括巴西、墨西哥和泰國。2030年，一半多的東亞和東南亞的居民將會超過40歲。當老年人逝去，而沒有充足的新生兒補充進來的時候，人口規(guī)模將會縮水。除開非洲，世界人口預計將在本世紀中期達到頂峰，本世紀末的人口將比現(xiàn)在少很多。甚至在非洲，生育率也在迅速下降。

Drowned out

/dra?nd a?t/

淹沒

The hubbub of voices drowned out the host's voice.

嘈雜的聲音淹沒了主人的聲音。

Many families were drowned out when the river burst its banks.

河水越過大堤使許多人無家可歸。

4

Whatever some environmentalists say, a shrinking population creates problems. The world is not close to full and the economic difficulties resulting from fewer young people are many. The obvious one is that it is getting harder to support the world’s pensioners. Retired folk?draw on?the output of the working-aged, either through the state, which levies taxes on workers to pay public pensions, or by cashing in savings to buy goods and services or because relatives provide care unpaid. But whereas the rich world currently has around three people between 20 and 64 years old for everyone over 65, by 2050 it will have less than two.?The implications are higher taxes, later retirements, lower real returns for savers and, possibly, government budget crises.

不管一些環(huán)保專家怎么說，人口不斷減少肯定會帶來問題。世界人口尚不飽和，年輕人減少帶來的經(jīng)濟困難很多。一個顯而易見的問題是，越來越難以養(yǎng)活全世界的養(yǎng)老金領取者。退休人員利用適齡工作人員的“產(chǎn)出”，要么通過國家向員工征稅來支付公共養(yǎng)老金，要么將儲蓄拿出來購買商品和服務，要么由親戚提供無償照顧。但是，在發(fā)達國家，每一個65歲以上的老人都有大約3名在20-64歲之間的人支撐，而到了2050年，這一人數(shù)將不到2人。這意味著更高的稅收，更晚的退休年齡，更低的儲蓄回報率，以及有可能的政府預算危機。

Draw on

利用，憑借，（時光）漸漸過去

He drew on his experience as a yachtsman to make a documentary programme.

他憑借曾經(jīng)做過快艇駕駛員的經(jīng)驗制作了一檔紀實節(jié)目。

As the afternoon drew on we were joined by more of the regulars.

隨著午后時光的漸漸消逝,又有些老主顧加入到我們當中來了。

5

Low ratios of workers to pensioners are only one problem stemming from collapsing fertility. As we explain this week, younger people have more of what psychologists call “fluid intelligence”, the ability to think creatively so as to solve problems in entirely new ways .

勞動人口和養(yǎng)老金領取者之間的比例過低只是生育率下降造成的問題之一。正如我們本周所解釋的那樣，年輕人擁有更多心理學家所說的“流體智力”，一種能夠使用創(chuàng)造性的思維，以全新的方式解決問題的能力。

Fluid Intelligence

流體智力是一種以生理為基礎的認知能力，如知覺、記憶、運算速度、推理能力等。流體智力是與晶體智力相對應的概念，流體智力隨年齡的老化而減退。而晶體智力則并不隨年齡的老化而減退，晶體智力主要指學會的技能、語言文字能力、判斷力、聯(lián)想力等。

6

This youthful dynamism complements the accumulated knowledge of older workers. It also brings change. Patents filed by the youngest inventors are much more likely to cover breakthrough innovations. Older countries—and, it turns out, their young people—are less enterprising and less comfortable taking risks. Elderly?electorates ossify?politics, too. Because the old benefit less than the young when economies grow, they have proved less keen on pro-growth policies, especially housebuilding. Creative destruction is likely to be rarer in ageing societies, suppressing productivity growth in ways that compound into an enormous missed opportunity.

這種年輕的活力為年長員工積累的知識提供了有益補充。而且也帶來了變化。最年輕的發(fā)明家申請的專利更有可能涵蓋重大創(chuàng)新突破。老齡化程度比較高的國家，事實證明，他們的年輕人缺乏進取心，更不愿意冒險，老年選民也使政治僵化。因為在經(jīng)濟增長時，老年人沒有年輕人受益多，他們很少關(guān)心促進經(jīng)濟增長的政策，特別是房屋建設。創(chuàng)造性破壞在老齡化社會中可能更罕見，這也抑制了生產(chǎn)力的發(fā)展，從而加劇措施大量機遇。

electorates

/??l?kt?r?ts/

n.(一國或一地區(qū)的)全體選民

electorate的復數(shù)

ossify

/?ɑ?s?fa?/

v.僵化;使固定不變;使骨化;骨質(zhì)化

7

All things considered, it is?tempting?to cast low fertility rates as a crisis to be solved. Many of its underlying causes, though, are in themselves welcome. As people have become richer they have tended to have fewer children. Today they face different trade-offs between work and family, and these are mostly better ones. The populist conservatives who claim low fertility is a sign of society’s failure and call for a return to traditional family values are wrong. More choice is a good thing, and no one owes it to others to bring up children.

考慮到所有因素，人們很容易將低生育率當成一個待解決的危機。然而，造成這一危機的潛在原因是人們愿意接受這樣的變化。當人們變得越富有，生育的孩子就越少。如今他們在工作和家庭之間面臨著艱難抉擇，而這樣的選擇大多是更好的。宣稱低生育率是社會失敗的標志，提倡回歸傳統(tǒng)家庭價值觀的民粹主義保守派錯了。更多的選擇是好事，別人沒有義務幫你養(yǎng)大孩子。

Tempt

vt.引誘;誘惑;勸誘;鼓動;慫恿;利誘

I was tempted by the dessert menu.

甜食菜單饞得我垂涎欲滴。

Nothing would tempt me to live here.

什么也吸引不了我到這里居住。

8

Liberals’ impulse to encourage more immigration is more noble. But it, too, is a misdiagnosis. Immigration in the rich world today is at a record high, helping individual countries tackle worker shortages. But the global nature of the fertility slump means that, by the middle of the century, the world is likely to face a?dearth?of young educated workers unless something changes.

自由主義者鼓勵增加移民的沖動更為高尚。但是，這也同樣是一種誤判。如今，發(fā)達國家的移民數(shù)量已經(jīng)創(chuàng)下了新高，幫助各國解決了勞動力短缺的問題。但全球生育率下降的本質(zhì)意味著，到了本世紀中期，除非有什么改變，世界將面臨著年輕的受過教育的勞動力的短缺問題。

Dearth

/d??rθ/

n.缺乏;不足

9

What might that be? People often tell pollsters they want more children than they have. This gap between aspiration and reality could be in part because would-be parents—who, in effect, subsidise future childless pensioners—cannot afford to have more children, or because of other policy failures, such as housing shortages or inadequate fertility treatment. Yet even if these are fixed, economic development is still likely to lead to a fall in fertility below the replacement rate. Pro-family policies have a disappointing record. Singapore offers lavish grants, tax rebates and child-care subsidies—but has a fertility rate of 1.0.

這會導致什么呢？人們經(jīng)常告訴民意調(diào)查者他們想要更多孩子。這種愿望和現(xiàn)實之間的差距一部分是因為這些準父母（實際上在補貼未來沒有孩子的養(yǎng)老金領取者）負擔不起更多孩子，或者因為其他政策的失敗，比如房屋短缺或生育治療不足。然而，即便這些問題都能解決，經(jīng)濟發(fā)展仍有可能導致生育率下降到替代率之下。家庭優(yōu)先的政策效果令人失望。新加坡提供慷慨的補助，退稅和育兒津貼，但是該國的生育率只有1.0。

10

Unleashing the potential of the world’s poor would ease the shortage of educated young workers without more births. Two-thirds of?..children live in the countryside and attend mostly dreadful schools; the same fraction of 25- to 34-year-olds in India have not completed upper secondary education. Africa’s pool of young people will continue to grow for decades. Boosting their skills is desirable in itself, and might also cast more young migrants as innovators in otherwise-stagnant economies. Yet encouraging development is hard—and the sooner places get rich, the sooner they get old.

在沒有增加生育的情況下，釋放全世界窮人的潛力可能會緩解受教育年輕勞動力短缺問題。三分之二的...兒童生活在農(nóng)村，大部分上的學校都很糟糕。印度25-34歲之間也有三分之二的人沒有完成高中教育。非洲的年輕群體也將在未來幾十年內(nèi)繼續(xù)增長。提高他們的能力本身是可取的，可能也會使更多的年輕人移民到停滯不前的經(jīng)濟體，成為那里的創(chuàng)新者。但是鼓勵發(fā)展是困難的——一個地方越早富裕起來，就會越早衰老。

11

Eventually, therefore, the world will have to?make do with?fewer youngsters—and perhaps with a shrinking population. With that in mind, recent advances in?AI?could not have come at a better time. An über-productive ai-infused economy might find it easy to support a greater number of retired people. Eventually ai may be able to generate ideas by itself, reducing the need for human intelligence. Combined with robotics, ai may also make caring for the elderly less labour-intensive. Such innovations will certainly be in high demand.

最終，全世界還是得靠越來越少的年輕人——以及或許不斷萎縮的人口湊合著過下去。鑒于此，AI領域取得的最近成就來的正是時候。一個由AI驅(qū)動的超高生產(chǎn)力的經(jīng)濟體可能會發(fā)現(xiàn)，為大量退休人員提供支持并不難。最終AI將會自主產(chǎn)生想法，減少對人類智能的需求。與機器人技術(shù)相結(jié)合，AI還有可能降低照顧老人的勞動強度。這些創(chuàng)新將會有很大需求。

Make do with

湊合著用

Why make do with a copy if you can afford the genuine article?

要是買得起真品，為什么還要拿復制品來湊合呢？

12

If technology does allow humanity to overcome the baby bust, it will fit the historical pattern.?Unexpected productivity advances meant that demographic time-bombs, such as the mass starvation predicted by Thomas Malthus in the 18th century, failed to?detonate.?Fewer babies means less human genius. But that might be a problem human genius can fix.

如果科技能夠允許人性克服嬰兒荒，這將符合歷史模式。意想不到的生產(chǎn)力進步意味著人口隱患的炸彈并不會引爆，比如托馬斯·馬爾薩斯預測的大饑荒。越少的兒童，意味著越少的天才。但是或者這個問題只能由人類天才才能解決吧。

Detonate

/?det?ne?t/

v.(使)爆炸;引爆;起爆

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