「釋義」

黑天鵝事件指非常難以預(yù)測，且不尋常的事件，通常會引起市場連鎖負面反應(yīng)甚至顛覆。

一般來說，“黑天鵝”事件是指滿足以下三個特點的事件：具有意外性；產(chǎn)生重大影響；雖然它具有意外性，但人的本性促使我們在事后為它的發(fā)生編造理由，并且或多或少認為它是可解釋和可預(yù)測的。

黑天鵝存在于各個領(lǐng)域，無論金融市場、商業(yè)、經(jīng)濟還是個人生活，都逃不過它的控制?！盎蚁！笔桥c“黑天鵝”相互補足的概念，“灰犀牛事件”是太過于常見以至于人們習(xí)以為常的風(fēng)險，“黑天鵝事件”則是極其罕見的、出乎人們意料的風(fēng)險。

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「應(yīng)用場景」

CEO在不同周期的任務(wù)不同。有些CEO是創(chuàng)始人和塑造者；有些CEO是幸運兒，經(jīng)歷經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定或商業(yè)模式尚未被顛覆的時期；我的任務(wù)截然不同：在極其動蕩的年代重塑GE這一老字號。

在6000個日日夜夜里，我掌管一支30萬人的隊伍，帶領(lǐng)他們走過蕭條、泡沫和地緣政治風(fēng)險。我至少目睹了3起“黑天鵝”事件。新的競爭對手不斷涌現(xiàn)，商業(yè)模式不斷改變，我們開發(fā)了全新的投資模式。GE不僅屹立不倒，而且涅槃重生?，F(xiàn)在我們完全具備了贏得未來的所有條件。

從2001年掌管這家公司至今，世界上發(fā)生的劇變不勝枚舉，也讓CEO一職面臨前所未有的挑戰(zhàn)。因此，我的經(jīng)驗絕非完美。我的決定將在未來數(shù)十年內(nèi)顯現(xiàn)出成效，但在創(chuàng)造長期價值上，我們從不會畏首畏尾。

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A CEO has different tasks in different cycles. Some CEOs are founders and builders. Others have the luxury of managing momentum through a stable economy or a period when business models aren’t being disrupted. My task was different: remaking a historic and iconic company during an extremely volatile time.

I led a team of 300,000 people for 6,000 days. I led through recessions, bubbles, and geopolitical risk. I saw at least three “black swan” events. New competitors emerged, business models changed, and we ushered in an entirely new way to invest. But we didn’t just persevere; we transformed the company. GE is well positioned to win in the future.

The changes that took in the world from 2001, when I assumed the company’s leadership, to 2017 are too numerous to mention. The task of the CEO has never been as difficult as it is today. In that vein, my story is one of progress versus perfection. The outcomes of my decisions will play out over decades, but we never feared taking big steps to create long-term value.

以上文字選自《哈佛商業(yè)評論》中文版2017年9月刊《杰夫·伊梅爾特：重塑GE以及我的感悟》

杰夫·伊梅爾特（Jeffrey R. Immelt）丨文

馬冰侖?丨編輯?