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Humanity will find ways to adapt to climate change

人類將找到適應(yīng)氣候變化的方法

Climate issue: That is no reason to give up on stopping it

氣候問題:沒有理由放仍氣候進(jìn)一步惡化

Sep 21st 2019

AFTER DESTRUCTIVE storms like Hurricane Dorian, those affected have decisions to make. Should they invest in cellar pumps and better drainage? Should they rebuild with more robust design and materials? Should they move? These judgments are informed by a harsh reality: the weather will get worse. Seas will be higher, rain more diluvial and storms fiercer. People with means will naturally adjust—as they should. Adaptation is essential to reduce the human and economic costs of climate change. But spending on adaptation may further complicate already-confounding politics.

像卡特里娜颶風(fēng)（Hurricane Dorian）這樣的破壞性風(fēng)暴過后，受影響的群眾必須做出決定。他們是否應(yīng)該斥資投建地下泵和更好的排水系統(tǒng)?他們的房屋應(yīng)該用更堅固的設(shè)計和材料重建嗎?他們應(yīng)該搬家嗎?這些判斷來自一個嚴(yán)酷的現(xiàn)實:天氣將變得更糟。海平面會更高，雨水會更泛濫，風(fēng)暴會更猛烈。有經(jīng)濟(jì)能力的人自然會做出調(diào)整——這是他們應(yīng)該做的。適應(yīng)氣候變化對減少氣候變化的人力和經(jīng)濟(jì)成本至關(guān)重要。但是，在適應(yīng)氣候變化方面的支出可能會使本已混亂的政治局面進(jìn)一步復(fù)雜化。

詞匯

Cellar/地窖；地下

Drainage/排水系統(tǒng)

Diluvial/?洪積的；洪水引起的

Mean/財產(chǎn)

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Efforts to slow global warming must overcome devilish political obstacles. The benefits to reduced warming accrue over decades and centuries, whereas the cost of cutting emissions must be paid upfront by taxpayers who cannot expect to see much return in their lifetimes. And mitigation (as efforts to curb emissions are called) is subject to a vicious collective-action problem. Climate harms are determined much more by what everyone else does than by what you do. Each actor has an incentive to free-ride on the sacrifices of others. Cutting emissions requires every large country saddling voters with expense and inconvenience that will mostly help people elsewhere, or not yet born.

減緩全球變暖的努力必須克服邪惡的政治障礙。減少全球變暖帶來的好處要經(jīng)過幾十年乃至幾個世紀(jì)才能積累起來，然而減排的成本必須由納稅人預(yù)先支付，但是他們無法指望在有生之年看到多少回報。而減排(對于抑制排放的工作的簡稱)受制于一個惡性的集體行動問題。氣候危害更多地是由其他人所做的而不是你所做的決定的。每一位行動者都有著犧牲他人利益來搭便車的意向。削減排放要求每個大國都要讓選民來承擔(dān)開支和隨之而來的不便，而這會更多的幫助在他人身上，或者那些還未出生的人。

詞匯

Devilish/邪惡的；精力旺盛的

Mitigation/緩解；減輕損失；減緩

Saddle/承受；使負(fù)擔(dān)

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Adaptation, by contrast, can pay off even when a person acts alone, out of pure self-interest. Homeowners who invest in air-conditioning or flood defences do so in the expectation of capturing most of the returns in the form of reduced harm to themselves, or perhaps higher property values. There are no political-economy problems to untangle (though without investment in green energy, air-conditioning adds to the general problem while mitigating it for individuals). Government actions are only slightly more complicated. It requires political consensus to spend public money on reinforcing infrastructure or building seawalls. But the benefits will mostly be felt in the place where the funds are raised. And at most a few governments and agencies will be required to co-operate, rather than tens or hundreds.

相比之下，即使一個人純粹出于自身利益而單獨(dú)行動，讓自己適應(yīng)，也能帶來回報。那些給自己房子裝配空調(diào)和防洪設(shè)施的房主們，希望借此盡可能減少自然災(zāi)害對他們的損害來得以回報；或是說，這樣可以提高房屋價值。沒有什么政治經(jīng)濟(jì)問題需要解決(盡管沒有對綠色能源的投資，空調(diào)在減輕個人負(fù)擔(dān)的同時也加劇了總體問題)。政府的行動只是稍微復(fù)雜一點(diǎn)。它需要政治共識，將公共資金用于加強(qiáng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施或修建海堤。但是，收益將主要體現(xiàn)在資金籌集的地方。而且最多只有幾個政府和機(jī)構(gòu)需要合作，而不是幾十個或幾百個。

詞匯

Untangle/清理；整頓

Mitigate/ ?使緩和，使減輕

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All this means that adaptation is likely to play a large role in humanity’s response to climate change. Indeed, research suggests that the price of agricultural land already incorporates the expected impact of climate change. Consumers already react to extreme weather events. Purchases of air-conditioning systems rise after heatwaves, for example. Some adaptation plans are explicitly labelled as such—New York City’s proposal to construct a “Big U” of raised flood-control berms around the southern end of Manhattan, for example. Others are not, such as individual decisions to take a job in a place less prone to extreme weather.

所有這些都意味著，適應(yīng)氣候變化很可能在人類應(yīng)對氣候變化方面發(fā)揮重要作用。事實上，研究表明，農(nóng)地價格已經(jīng)包含了氣候變化的預(yù)期影響。消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)對極端天氣事件做出了反應(yīng)。例如，熱浪過后，空調(diào)系統(tǒng)的購買量上升。一些適應(yīng)計劃被明確地貼上了這樣的標(biāo)簽——例如，紐約市提議在曼哈頓南端建造一個由抬高的防洪堤壩組成的“U型”堤壩。也有不這么做的，比如個人決定在不太容易發(fā)生極端天氣的地方工作。

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As demand rises for ways to ease the pain of climate change, supply will respond. A growing market for goods prompts producers to innovate—and work by Matthew Kahn of Johns Hopkins University and Daxuan Zhao of Renmin University suggests that the same logic applies to adaptation. Firms researching zero-emission energy and carbon sequestration hope to create a market (or are betting that governments will eventually do the job for them by getting serious about emissions). By contrast the market for better means of coping with climate change is already growing daily.

隨著人們對緩解氣候變化帶來的痛苦的方法的需求上升，供應(yīng)將會做出反應(yīng)。不斷增長的商品市場促使生產(chǎn)者進(jìn)行創(chuàng)新——約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)的Matthew Kahn和人民大學(xué)的趙大川的研究表明，同樣的邏輯也適用于適應(yīng)。研究零排放能源和碳封存的公司希望創(chuàng)造一個市場(或者打賭政府最終會通過認(rèn)真對待排放來為他們做這件事)。相比之下，更好地應(yīng)對氣候變化的市場已經(jīng)每天都在增長。

詞匯

Sequestration/隔離；扣押；退隱

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That is in many ways a good thing. Predictions of the costs of climate change are often far higher when analysts rule out the possibility of adaptive behaviour. A study published last year considering the global costs of coastal flooding, for example, estimated that floods will reduce real global GDP in 2200 by 4.5%—unless the effects of adaptive investments and migration are considered, in which case the loss works out as just 0.11%. A new report by the Global Commission on Adaptation, a group convened by 20 advanced and emerging economies, identifies $1.8trn in potential adaptation investments which, if realised between 2020 and 2030, would yield estimated net benefits of $7.1trn.

這在很多方面都是一件好事。當(dāng)分析人士排除適應(yīng)性行為的可能性時，對氣候變化代價的預(yù)測往往要高得多。例如，去年發(fā)表的一項考慮到全球沿海洪災(zāi)成本的研究估計，2200年洪水將使全球?qū)嶋HGDP減少4.5%——除非考慮到適應(yīng)性投資和移民的影響，在這種情況下，實際損失僅為0.11%。由20個發(fā)達(dá)國家和新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體組成的全球適應(yīng)委員會(Global Commission on Adaptation)在一份新報告中指出，如果在2020年至2030年期間實現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)，預(yù)計將帶來7.1萬億美元的凈收益，其中180萬億美元用于潛在的適應(yīng)投資。

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The ark of history

歷史的方舟

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But the march to adaptation is not an unalloyed good. Just as better safety features in cars may make for less careful drivers, investments in adaptation that blunt the effects of climate change could reduce the appetite for spending on mitigation. Serious decarbonisation will impose significant cost and inconvenience on nearly everyone. People will be persuaded that it is in their interests only if there are tangible harms in the not-too-distant future that might reasonably be averted. Investments in adaptation that reduce the likelihood or severity of those looming harms undercut the case for accepting the hardship of decarbonisation. The longer governments fail to act to curb warming, the more people and firms will spend to safeguard themselves, and the less troubled they may be by governments’ failures to decarbonise.

但適應(yīng)氣候變化的進(jìn)程并非一帆風(fēng)順。正如汽車上更好的安全性能可能導(dǎo)致駕駛員不那么小心一樣，在減緩氣候變化影響的適應(yīng)方面的投資，可能會降低緩解氣候變化的支出意愿。大量的脫碳將給幾乎所有人帶來巨大的成本和不便。只有在不遠(yuǎn)的將來出現(xiàn)可以合理避免的切實損害時，人們才會相信這符合他們的利益。減少這些若隱若現(xiàn)的危害的可能性或者說嚴(yán)重性的適應(yīng)性投資削弱了接受脫碳困難的理由。政府未能采取行動遏制氣候變暖的時間越長，就會有越多的人和企業(yè)投入更多資金來保護(hù)自己，政府未能實現(xiàn)脫碳可能給他們帶來的麻煩也就越小。

詞匯

Unalloyed/純粹的；[材] 非合金的

Blunt/使遲鈍

Serious/【如果表示‘嚴(yán)重’，覺得不大適合該句子，牛津詞典有“大量”的表示含義，但是是一種非正式用法】

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But even if some people can adapt to a warmer world, it is still a big problem. Unmitigated global warming could result in catastrophic scenarios that outstrip any capacity to adapt. Moreover, the ability to adapt varies dramatically from place to place. Rich people in North America and mainland Europe, both of which have relatively temperate climates, have money to spend on adaptation and can move from the worst-hit spots with relative ease. Poor people have little spare cash, mostly live in hotter places and face far more obstacles when they try to migrate. Indeed, some research suggests they may even migrate less when temperatures rise, because hotter, drier conditions harm agricultural yields, thus depriving them of the capital they would need to move.

但是，即使有些人能夠適應(yīng)一個更熱的世界，這仍然是一個大問題。全球變暖如果得不到緩解，可能會導(dǎo)致災(zāi)難性的后果，超出任何適應(yīng)能力。此外，適應(yīng)能力因地而異。北美和歐洲大陸的富人都擁有相對溫和的氣候，他們有資金用于適應(yīng)氣候變化，而且可以相對輕松地從受災(zāi)最嚴(yán)重的地區(qū)撤離。窮人幾乎沒有閑錢，他們大多住在更熱的地方，在試圖移民時面臨著更多的障礙。事實上，一些研究表明，當(dāng)氣溫上升時，他們甚至可能減少遷徙，因為更熱、更干燥的環(huán)境會損害農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)量，從而剝奪他們遷徙所需的資本。

詞匯

Outstrip/超過；勝過

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Part of the attraction of mitigation as a primary response is that the steps rich countries take to help themselves also help poorer ones, which are both less responsible for global warming and more vulnerable to its effects. Residents of advanced economies must recognise that spending to shield themselves increases, rather than decreases, their obligations to others.

減緩氣候變化作為主要應(yīng)對措施的部分吸引力在于，富裕國家采取的幫助自己的措施也幫助了貧窮國家。貧窮國家對全球變暖的責(zé)任更輕，也更容易受到其影響。發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的居民必須認(rèn)識到，保護(hù)自己的支出增加了，而不是減少了，他們有義務(wù)幫助他人。