Predicting a global recession usually means standing out from the crowd. Today it is those saying the world economy will avoid a downturn who are sticking their necks out. America’s Federal Reserve is leading a broad charge to tighten monetary policy, and has raised interest rates by 2? percentage points since March. It is expected to impose another point of tightening by December. Europe is short of natural gas because of falling supplies from Russia. X growth has slowed sharply as a result of the lockdowns that stem from its zero-covid policy, and worries are mounting over its fragile property markets.

預(yù)測全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退通常意味著脫穎而出。如今，那些說世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將避開衰退的人正做出大膽猜測。美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會(美聯(lián)儲)正在領(lǐng)導(dǎo)一項(xiàng)廣泛的緊縮貨幣政策，自3月以來其已經(jīng)將利率提高了2.25%個百分點(diǎn)。預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲將在12月之前實(shí)施新一輪緊縮措施。俄羅斯天然氣供應(yīng)減少導(dǎo)致歐洲天然氣短缺。零新冠政策導(dǎo)致的封鎖，使經(jīng)濟(jì)增長大幅放緩，并且人們對其脆弱的房地產(chǎn)市場的擔(dān)憂日益加劇。

So gloomy is the mood that many investors are asking whether a recession has already arrived. It is a hard question to answer. The pandemic has played havoc with economic indicators. Inflation has caused consumer confidence to plunge, but when asked about their personal finances rather than the whole economy, people are much cheerier. America’s disappointing GDP figures do not tally with other measures of output or employers’ growing payrolls. Manufacturing surveys register their weakest results since the early days of the pandemic, but that may be because consumers are still rebalancing their spending after the worst phase of the pandemic (there is less buying of home-gym equipment, but more queuing in airports). Even X slowdown could help Europe narrowly, by reducing global demand for liquefied natural gas.

市場情緒如此悲觀，以至于許多投資者都在問，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退是否已經(jīng)到來。這是個很難回答的問題。疫情嚴(yán)重影響了經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)。通貨膨脹導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)者信心下降，但當(dāng)被問及他們的個人財(cái)務(wù)狀況而不是整個經(jīng)濟(jì)時，人們要高興得多。美國令人失望的GDP數(shù)據(jù)與其他產(chǎn)出指標(biāo)或雇主增長的工資開支不符。制造業(yè)的調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示出其自疫情初期以來最差的“效益”，但這可能是因?yàn)橄M(fèi)者在疫情最嚴(yán)重階段后仍在重新平衡他們的支出(家庭健身設(shè)備的購買減少了，但在機(jī)場排隊(duì)的人更多了)。就連[...] 經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩也可能略微幫助歐洲，因?yàn)檫@將降低全球?qū)σ夯烊粴獾男枨蟆?/p>

Regardless of whether economies are already shrinking, it is hard to see how they can avoid a recession over the next year as monetary tightening bites and Europe heads into a bleak winter. The silver lining is that both higher interest rates and the energy shock will bring gains that should strengthen the world economy in the long run.

無論經(jīng)濟(jì)是否已經(jīng)萎縮，隨著貨幣緊縮的影響和歐洲進(jìn)入一個寒冷的冬天，很難看到他們?nèi)绾文茉谖磥硪荒瓯苊馑ネ恕：孟⑹歉叩睦室约澳茉礇_擊都將帶來收益，從長期來看，這些收益應(yīng)該會加強(qiáng)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)。

Some recessions feed on themselves as indebted households cut their spending or defaults cascade through a fragile financial system. With a few exceptions, such as Canada’s frothy housing market, today’s big economies suffer from few such vulnerabilities. In fact, households and companies look strong.

一些經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退是由負(fù)債家庭削減開支，或者脆弱的金融體系面臨違約潮造成的。除了少數(shù)例外，如加拿大房地產(chǎn)市場泡沫，今天的大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體很少像它這樣脆弱。事實(shí)上，家庭和企業(yè)看起來都很強(qiáng)勁。

The bank balances of the poorest American households are around 70% fatter than they were in 2019. Even the threat of an emerging-market financial crisis—the usual worry when the Fed raises rates—is not what it once was. That is in part because of a switch towards debts denominated in local currencies rather than dollars.

美國最貧困家庭的銀行余額比2019年增加了約70%。即使是新興市場金融危機(jī)的威脅（這是美聯(lián)儲加息時的常見擔(dān)憂）也已不像從前那樣。這在一定程度上是因?yàn)檗D(zhuǎn)向了以本幣而非美元計(jì)價的債務(wù)。

The main global economic fault line is inflation. Thankfully, it is still short in the tooth. The last time the Fed tightened monetary policy so dramatically, in the early 1980s, prices had more than doubled over the previous decade. Today the figure is just 29%, because inflation only took off last year. Though America’s economy has badly overheated, long-term inflation expectations remain modest. The best historical analogy is probably not the prolonged battle with stagflation of the 1970s but the burst in consumer prices that followed the mass disruption of the second world war. The downturn that brought that inflation to an end was shallow and left few scars. A mild recession should squeeze price rises out of the economy this time, too. Already, markets are betting that American prices will rise by about 3.8% over the next year, less than half the current inflation rate.

全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的主要斷層線是通貨膨脹。值得慶幸的是，通脹時間還很短。上一次美聯(lián)儲如此大幅收緊貨幣政策是在上世紀(jì)80年代初，當(dāng)時的物價在過去10年里上漲了一倍多。如今這個數(shù)字僅為29%，因?yàn)橥ㄘ浥蛎浫ツ瓴砰_始加劇。盡管美國經(jīng)濟(jì)嚴(yán)重過熱，但長期通脹預(yù)期仍然溫和。和上世紀(jì)70年代與滯脹的長期斗爭進(jìn)行歷史類比，不是最好的，而應(yīng)該與二戰(zhàn)大規(guī)模破壞之后消費(fèi)價格的爆發(fā)進(jìn)行類比。導(dǎo)致那次通貨膨脹結(jié)束的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退并不嚴(yán)重，幾乎沒有留下什么傷痕。這次，一場溫和的衰退也會導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)物價上漲。市場已經(jīng)認(rèn)定美國的物價在未來一年將上漲3.8%，還不到目前通脹率的一半。

Elsewhere the main impetus for inflation is soaring global food and energy prices and disrupted supply chains, which are raising the price of imported goods. Some shortages are already easing. Wheat prices are down by nearly 40% from their recent peak in May. Oil prices have also been falling lately. Supply chains are recovering. Unfortunately, Europe’s gas shortage is getting worse. Though governments are doing their best to shield consumers from the consequences, if rationing becomes necessary, industrial production and hence GDP will fall, perhaps steeply in exposed economies like Germany. Even as output shrinks, inflation will rise further.

在其他地方，通脹的主要推動力是全球食品和能源價格的飆升，以及供應(yīng)鏈的中斷，這就導(dǎo)致進(jìn)口商品價格上漲。一些短缺已經(jīng)有所緩解。小麥價格較5月份的峰值下降了近40%。最近油價也在下跌。供應(yīng)鏈正在恢復(fù)。不幸的是，歐洲的天然氣短缺越來越嚴(yán)重。盡管政府正在盡最大努力保護(hù)消費(fèi)者不受影響，但如果定量配給成為必要，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)和GDP也將會下降，在像德國這樣受影響的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中可能會急劇下降。即使產(chǎn)出萎縮，通脹也會進(jìn)一步上升。

Yet in the same way that a downturn should purge the American economy of its inflation problem, so Europe could emerge from recession having overcome its complacency about the supply of energy. Policymakers have belatedly realised that a carefully managed shift to clean energy also eases their dependence on autocratic regimes.

然而，就像經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退會消除美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的通脹問題一樣，歐洲也可以克服對能源供應(yīng)的自滿情緒，走出衰退。決策者們很晚才意識到，謹(jǐn)慎受控地向清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)變也會減輕他們對專制政權(quán)的依賴。

Around the world, investment in renewable energy is surging and governments that were previously sceptical about nuclear power—an essential part of a low-carbon energy grid—are reconsidering their opposition to it. Even Japan, which suffered the Fukushima disaster in 2011, is hoping to restart more nuclear reactors. If the world emerges from the coming downturn with inflation under control and on the path to greener, more secure energy supplies, the pain will not have been for nothing.

在世界范圍內(nèi)，對可再生能源的投資正在激增，以及曾經(jīng)對低碳能源網(wǎng)的重要組成部分，即核能持懷疑態(tài)度的政府也在重新考慮他們對核能的反對態(tài)度。就連2011年遭受福島核災(zāi)難的日本，也希望重啟更多的核反應(yīng)堆。如果世界走出即將到來的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，通脹得到控制，并走上更環(huán)保、更安全的能源供應(yīng)之路，那么這些痛苦就不會一文不值了。