The benefits of technological change are likely to be vast. Costs should tumble as branches are shut, creaking mainframe systems retired and bureaucracy culled. If the world’s listed banks chopped expenses by a third, the saving would be worth $80 a year for every person on Earth. In 2000 the Netherlands had more bank branches per head than America; it now has just a third as many. Rotten service will improve—it is easier to get money to a friend using a chat app than it is to ask your bank to transfer cash. The system will get better at its vital job of allocating capital. Richer data will allow banks to take risks that currently baffle underwriters. Fraud should be easier to spot. Lower costs and the democratising effect of social media will give more people better access to finance. And more firms with good ideas should be able to get loans faster, boosting growth.

技術(shù)變革所帶來的好處也許是巨大的。隨著分支機構(gòu)的關(guān)閉、老化的主機系統(tǒng)的關(guān)閉和官僚機構(gòu)的精簡，成本應(yīng)該會大幅下降。如果全球上市銀行將支出削減三分之一，那么全球人均每年可節(jié)省80美元。2000年，荷蘭的人均銀行分行數(shù)超過美國;現(xiàn)在只有三分之一。糟糕的服務(wù)會有所改進——用聊天軟件把錢給朋友比讓你的銀行轉(zhuǎn)賬更容易。這一體系將在資本配置這一至關(guān)重要的工作上做得更好。充分的數(shù)據(jù)使得銀行有條件承擔(dān)目前困擾承銷商的風(fēng)險。詐騙行為將更容易被揭發(fā)。更低的成本和社會化媒體的民主化效應(yīng)將使更多的人更好地獲得融資。更多有好點子的公司應(yīng)該能夠更快地獲得貸款，從而推動經(jīng)濟增長。

詞匯

Tumble/摔倒；倒塌；滾動；

Creak/（門、木地板等）嘎吱作響；（過勞或緊張）顯得虛弱

Cull/精選；采集（鮮花等）；剔除

Rotten/腐爛的，惡臭的；糟糕的，極壞的；

Baffle/使…困惑；使…受挫折；

Underwriters/ 保險業(yè)者，承諾支付者

Yet change also poses risks. Because the financial system is embedded in the economy, innovation tends to create turbulence. The credit card’s arrival in 1950 revolutionised shopping but also sparked America’s consumer-debt culture. Securitisation lubricated capital markets in the 1980s but fuelled the subprime crisis. In addition, it is unclear who will win today’s battle. One dystopian scenario is that power becomes more concentrated, as a few big banks learn to exploit data as ruthlessly as social-media firms do. Imagine a crossbreed of Facebook and Wells Fargo that predicts and manipulates how customers behave and is able to use proprietary economic data to squeeze rivals.

然而，變化也帶來了風(fēng)險。由于金融體系已嵌入經(jīng)濟之中，創(chuàng)新往往會引發(fā)動蕩。1950年信用卡的出現(xiàn)徹底改變了購物，但也引發(fā)了美國消費債務(wù)文化。證券化在上世紀(jì)80年代潤滑了資本市場，但卻加劇了次貸危機。此外，目前還不清楚誰將贏得今天的戰(zhàn)斗。一種反烏托邦的設(shè)想是，隨著少數(shù)幾家大銀行學(xué)會像社交媒體公司那樣無情地挖掘數(shù)據(jù)，權(quán)力變得更加集中。想象一下，F(xiàn)acebook和富國銀行(Wells Fargo)的聯(lián)合企業(yè)能夠預(yù)測和操縱客戶的行為，并能夠利用專有的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)擠壓競爭對手。

詞匯

Securitisation/ ?證券化

Lubricate/ ?使…潤滑；給…加潤滑油

subprime crisis/次貸危機

dystopian/反面假想國的；反面烏托邦的

scenario/方案；情節(jié)；劇本；設(shè)想

manipulates/操縱；操作；巧妙地處理；篡改

proprietary/所有的；專利的；私人擁有的

?

Another dystopia involves fragmentation and destabilisation. Banks could lose depositors to untested neobanks, creating a mismatch between their assets and liabilities that could lead to a credit crunch. If bank customers transact via tech or payment platforms, banks could end up with huge balance-sheets but without a direct connection to their clients. If they thus became unprofitable, they could be broken up, with the job of financing mortgages and absorbing short-term savings left entirely to capital markets, which are volatile.

另一個反烏托邦成分包括分裂和不穩(wěn)定。銀行可能會因為未經(jīng)測試的新銀行而失去儲戶，造成資產(chǎn)和負(fù)債之間的不匹配，從而可能導(dǎo)致信貸緊縮。如果銀行客戶通過技術(shù)或支付平臺進行交易，銀行最終可能擁有龐大的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，但與客戶沒有直接聯(lián)系。如果它們因此變得無利可圖，就可能被拆分，將抵押貸款融資和吸收短期儲蓄的工作完全留給動蕩不安的資本市場。

詞匯

Fragmentation/破碎；[心理]分裂

Liability/責(zé)任；債務(wù)；傾向；可能性；不利因素

Volatile/不穩(wěn)定的；爆炸性的；反復(fù)無常的

?

To tap the benefits of technology safely, governments should give consumers control over their data, protecting privacy and preventing firms hoarding information. Innovation-friendly regulation would help; in 2017 the industry faced a regulatory alert every nine minutes (see Finance section). And governments should keep the system’s safety buffers at today’s overall size (global banks hold $7trn of core capital). If new entrants are properly capitalised, central banks could extend to them the lender-of-last-resort facilities that provide shelter in a storm.

為了安全利用技術(shù)帶來的好處，政府應(yīng)該讓消費者控制自己的數(shù)據(jù)，保護隱私，防止公司囤積信息。有利于創(chuàng)新的監(jiān)管將帶來幫助;2017年，該行業(yè)每9分鐘就會面臨一次監(jiān)管警告（看本期金融板塊文章）。各國政府應(yīng)將金融體系的安全緩沖保持在目前的總體規(guī)模(全球銀行持有7萬億美元的核心資本)。如果新進入者資本充足，各國央行可以向它們提供最后貸款人(lender-of-last-resort)工具，在金融風(fēng)暴中提供庇護。

詞匯

Hoard/貯藏

Banking’s dirty secret is that it is backward, inefficient and hidebound. Banks have formidable lobbying power, however. Wary of change, customers, politicians and unions complain when branches are closed and jobs cut—witness the recent collapse of a German mega-merger that depended on both. Regulators love dealing with a few big firms. The thing is that global growth is sluggish and productivity gains are hard to come by. A smartphone revolution in finance offers one of the best ways to boost the economy and spread the benefits.

銀行業(yè)的骯臟秘密在于落后、低效和守舊。然而，銀行擁有強大的游說力量。由于害怕變革，客戶、政客和工會在分支機構(gòu)關(guān)閉和裁員時抱怨連連——人們見證了最近德國一樁依賴于這兩方面的大型并購交易的崩潰。監(jiān)管者喜歡和幾家大公司打交道。問題是，全球增長速度乏力，生產(chǎn)率增長難以實現(xiàn)。金融領(lǐng)域的智能手機革命提供了提振經(jīng)濟、分享利益的最佳方案之一。

詞匯

Hidebound/死板的；保守的；頑固的；墨守成規(guī)的

Formidable/強大的；可怕的；令人敬畏的；

Lobbying/游說

Sluggish/蕭條的；遲鈍的；行動遲緩的；懶惰的