文章來源：《經(jīng)濟學人》Mar 4th 2023 期 Leaders 欄目 Tech investing 科技投資

Until last year, venture capital (vc) had been riding high. With interest rates close to zero and little yield to be found elsewhere, large companies, hedge funds and sovereign-wealth investors began ploughing cash into startups, sending valuations upwards. In 2021 alone the amount of money flowing to startups doubled to nearly $640bn. Then soaring inflation and surging interest rates brought the market crashing down. Last year the investments made in startups worldwide sank by a third. Between the final quarter of 2021 and the same period in 2022, the valuations of private startups tumbled by 56%.

直到去年，風投一直順風順水。由于利率接近于零，而且在其他地方幾乎找不到收益，大公司、對沖基金和主權(quán)財富投資者開始向初創(chuàng)公司投入資金，并推高了它們的估值。僅2021年一年，流向初創(chuàng)公司的資金就翻了一番，達到近6400億美元。隨后，飆升的通貨膨脹和利率導致市場崩潰。去年，全球?qū)?chuàng)業(yè)公司的投資下降了三分之一。從2021年最后一個季度到2022年同期，私人初創(chuàng)公司的估值暴跌了56%。

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The downturn inevitably draws comparisons to the dotcom crash of 2000-01, when deep winter set in and vc investments froze. Luckily for both founders and their backers, conditions are not so frosty today. Startups’ balance-sheets are stronger than they were 20 years ago; valuations are not quite so detached from revenues. In America alone, venture capitalists have about $300bn in dry powder. Nonetheless, the industry that is emerging from the tech slump and into an era of dearer money looks different from the one that went into it. In many respects, vc is returning to the ways of decades past.

這次低迷不可避免地讓人將其與2000-2001年的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫崩潰相提并論，當時寒冬降臨，風險投資凍結(jié)。幸運的是，對于創(chuàng)始人和他們的支持者來說，今天的情況沒有那么嚴峻。創(chuàng)業(yè)公司的資產(chǎn)負債表比20年前更強健; 估值與收入并不是那么脫節(jié)。僅在美國，風險資本家就擁有約3000億美元的資金。盡管如此，這個正在從科技衰退中走出、進入資金更加昂貴時代的行業(yè)，看起來與當初進入時有所不同。在許多方面，風投正在回歸幾十年前的方式。

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One change is a focus on small, profitable firms. This is a habit venture investing sometimes forgot in the boom years, when rapid growth and the hope of big profits tomorrow were prized over profits today. Many backers who were in search of a quick return piled into older, “l(fā)ate-stage” startups, which would probably go public soon and seemed assured of heady valuations.

其中一個變化是關(guān)注盈利的小型公司。這是風投在繁榮時期有時會忘記的一個習慣，在繁榮時期，快速增長和對未來豐厚利潤的希望比今天的利潤更受重視。許多尋求快速回報的投資者紛紛投資于較老的“后期”初創(chuàng)公司，這些公司可能很快就會上市，而且似乎肯定會有令人興奮的估值。

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Today, however, stockmarkets are volatile, making it hard for venture investors to gauge the value of late-stage startups. As interest rates have risen, lossmakers have fallen out of favour: according to an index compiled by Goldman Sachs, the stock prices of unprofitable tech companies have fallen by two-thirds since November 2021. vcs, too, are telling their portfolio firms to tighten their belts and generate cash. Increasingly their new bets are on younger firms, and those which are cutting costs sharply and likely to turn a profit sooner.

然而，今天的股票市場動蕩不安，使得風險投資者很難評估后期創(chuàng)業(yè)公司的價值。隨著利率上升，虧損企業(yè)已經(jīng)失寵: 根據(jù)高盛編制的一項指數(shù)，自2021年11月以來，不盈利的科技公司的股價下跌了三分之二。風投公司也在告訴他們的投資組合公司勒緊褲腰帶賺錢。他們的新賭注越來越多地押在年輕的公司，以及那些大幅削減成本、可能更快實現(xiàn)盈利的公司身上。

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A second shift is a renewed emphasis on strategic firms. In an echo of vc’s earliest days, when investors often backed semiconductor-makers that vied to win huge public contracts, many today are eyeing up firms in areas that stand to gain from governments’ new fondness for industrial policy. Administrations in both America and Europe, for instance, plan to spend hundreds of billions of dollars supporting chip firms and clean tech.

第二個轉(zhuǎn)變是對戰(zhàn)略性企業(yè)的重新重視。在風投的早期，投資者通常會支持那些爭搶巨額公共合同的半導體制造商，而今天，許多人都盯上了那些有望從政府鐘愛的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策中獲益的公司。例如，美國和歐洲的政府都計劃花費數(shù)千億美元來支持芯片公司和清潔技術(shù)。

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Venture capitalists, understandably, know how to spot an opportunity. Andreessen Horowitz, a stalwart of Silicon Valley investing, has launched an “American Dynamism” fund that partly invests in firms which tap support from Uncle Sam. Other venture investors, including Temasek, a Singaporean sovereign-wealth fund, say they increasingly expect their investments to align with states’ strategic aims.

可以理解，風投知道如何發(fā)現(xiàn)機會。硅谷投資的堅定支持者安德森?霍洛維茨公司推出了一只“美國活力”基金，部分投資于那些獲得美國政府支持的公司。包括新加坡主權(quán)財富基金淡馬錫在內(nèi)的其他風險投資者表示，他們越來越希望自己的投資能與國家的戰(zhàn)略目標保持一致。

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A final shift in vc’s approach is an emphasis on better governance. In the boom years too much venture money chased too few good investments. The mismatch gave founders the upper hand in negotiations, helping them keep oversight relatively light. After the spectacular blow up last year of ftx, a venture-backed crypto exchange, it became clear that none of ftx’s big venture- and sovereign-fund investors had taken seats on the startup’s board, leaving Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder, and his colleagues entirely to their own devices.

風投方法的最后一個轉(zhuǎn)變是強調(diào)更好的治理。在經(jīng)濟繁榮時期，過多的風險資金追逐著太少的優(yōu)質(zhì)投資。這種不匹配讓創(chuàng)始人在談判中占據(jù)上風，幫助他們保持相對較輕的監(jiān)管。在去年一家由風投支持的加密貨幣交易所ftx發(fā)生了驚人的暴雷之后，很明顯，ftx的大型風險基金和主權(quán)基金投資者都沒有在這家初創(chuàng)公司的董事會中占據(jù)席位，只留下創(chuàng)始人薩姆·班克曼-弗里德和他的同事們完全自由發(fā)揮。

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Now venture finance is harder to come by. Tiger Global and other funds that were previously hands-off have started to retreat. Other investors say they intend to take up their board seats. That reduces the power of founders to dictate terms and should improve governance. A lack of venture dollars may also encourage startups to go public sooner, as might trustbusters’ greater scrutiny of big tech acquisitions. The knowledge that they might soon face scrutiny in the public markets could also discipline founders.

現(xiàn)在風險投資更難獲得了。老虎全球管理基金和其他此前不插手的基金已開始撤退。其他投資者表示，他們打算接手董事會席位。這減少了創(chuàng)始人發(fā)號施令的權(quán)力，應(yīng)該會改善公司治理。缺乏風險投資也可能會鼓勵初創(chuàng)公司更快上市，反壟斷機構(gòu)對大型科技收購的更嚴格審查也可能會促使初創(chuàng)公司更快上市。他們可能很快就會在公開市場上面臨審查，這一點也會對創(chuàng)始人形成約束。

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This new sobriety will not last for ever. Venture capitalists are, by nature, excitable: look at the buzz over generative artificial intelligence. Some hedge funds have left venture investing after previous downturns only to return when valuations adjusted. In time the cycle will surely turn once more, sending vc investments to dizzying heights. For the moment, though, the old ways are back—and that marks a welcome change.

這種新的清醒不會永遠持續(xù)下去。風險投資家天生就容易激動:看看生成式AI引發(fā)的熱議吧。一些對沖基金在前幾次經(jīng)濟低迷后離開風險投資，只是在估值調(diào)整后才回歸。隨著時間的推移，這個周期肯定會再次轉(zhuǎn)向，將風險投資推向令人眼花繚亂的高度。然而，就目前而言，舊的方式又回來了，這標志著一個可喜的變化。