Free exchange--The?mop?that never stops

How China revived and recast its economy at the same time

經(jīng)濟學(xué)人10月刊

mop ?/m?p/? 名詞?1.拖把；墩布??a mop and bucket 拖把和水桶?2.?洗碗刷?3. 亂蓬蓬的頭發(fā)??a mop of curly red hair 亂蓬蓬的紅色鬈發(fā)；動詞 4用拖把擦干凈??She wiped all the surfaces and mopped the floor. 她把所有的陳設(shè)都擦干凈，還拖了地板。5.~ sth (from sth) 用布擦掉（表面）的液體??He took out a handkerchief to mop his brow (= to remove the sweat) . 他拿出手絹來擦額頭上的汗水。

動詞短語

1.?mop sth/sb←→?up：吸干凈；吸去…的水分??Do you want some bread to mop up that sauce? 要不要用塊面包把這醬料蘸蘸吃了？

2.?mop sb/sth←→?up?(1) ?完成，結(jié)束（最后部分）；收尾??There are a few things that need mopping up before I can leave. 我還有幾件事兒，了結(jié)了才能走。(2)消滅（殘敵）

recast??v./?ri??kɑ?st/??1.改動；重組；改寫??She recast her lecture as a radio talk.?她把講稿修改成了一篇廣播講話。?2.~ sb (as sth)?重新安排（演員陣容）；改變（演員角色）

FORECASTS CAN haunt?their authors, especially when they appear in headlines or book titles. Most pundits?play it safe, giving “a number or a date, but not both”, as an old sage?once advised. Thomas Orlik of Bloomberg is more courageous. His latest book, “China: The Bubble That Never Pops”, provides an unusually even-handed?account of China’s economic resilience that is both closely observed and analytically interesting. But its title offers up quite a hostage?to fortune. “Never”, after all, spans a lot of dates.

haunt??/h??nt/?vt. 常出沒于…；縈繞于…；經(jīng)常去…vi. 出沒；作祟?n. 棲息地；常去的地方

Pundit n. /?p?nd?t/ ?行家；權(quán)威；專家；=pandit 梵學(xué)家；博學(xué)家

Courageous /k??re?d??s/?有膽量的，勇敢的? ??even-handed：公平的，無偏見的

hostage ?n. /?h?st?d?/ ?人質(zhì)、抵押品?? Three children were taken hostage during the bank robbery. 在銀行搶劫案中有三名兒童被扣為人質(zhì)。

A ?HOSTAGE TO ?FORTUNE 可能招惹麻煩（或擔憂）的東西（或許諾）；造成后患的事物

Span??n. 跨度，跨距；范圍?vt. 跨越；持續(xù)；以手指測量

Fortunately for Mr Orlik, his definition of China’s bubble leaves him some wiggle room. He is not referring to any particular market or mania (such as the frenzy for tech stocks this year, bike-sharing in 2017 or caterpillar fungus in 2012). The title refers instead to China’s crisis-proof economic momentum, which has survived countless predictions of collapse. Even now, this?unpoppable force?is bouncing back?with impressive speed from the covid-19 pandemic (which arrived after this book was written). Will Mr Orlik ever wish he’d never said never?

wiggle room? 進行解釋或表達意見所留的)余地、回旋空間??

wiggle /?w?ɡl/??v.使擺動，使扭動?n. 擺動，扭動

mania n. ??/?me?ni?/ ?

1.~ (for sth/for doing sth) （通常指許多人共有的）強烈的欲望，狂熱，極大的熱情??He had a mania for fast cars. 他是個飛車狂。?2.躁狂癥

Caterpillar ?n. /?k?t?p?l?(r)/ 毛蟲，蠋（蝴蝶或蛾的幼蟲）

Fungus??n. /?f??ɡ?s/ ?( pl. fungi /?f??ɡi?/ ?/?ɡa?/ ?/?f?nd?a?/ ?)?1.. 真菌（如蘑菇和霉）2. 霉；霉菌??fungus infections 霉菌感染??caterpillar fungus?冬蟲夏草??

momentum n. ??/m??ment?m/??1. 推進力；動力；勢頭??The fight for his release gathers momentum each day. 爭取使他獲釋的斗爭聲勢日益加強。2.沖力??The vehicle gained momentum as the road dipped. 那輛車順著坡越跑沖力越大。3.?動量

Unpoppable這個詞國內(nèi)網(wǎng)站未查到，它是un否定前綴+poppable。poppabel根據(jù)merriam-webster的解釋是capable of being popped。而pop的含義就非常多，聯(lián)系上下文經(jīng)濟學(xué)家預(yù)測中國經(jīng)濟如泡沫，因此這里的pop指的是to cause to explode or burst open，突然爆炸的意思。而unpoppable force則指的是經(jīng)濟泡沫一直不破的能力。

bouncing ?adj. /?ba?ns??/ ?~ (with sth) 健壯的；茁壯的

Although Mr Orlik does not draw heavily on economic theory to justify his confidence, he can take some comfort from it. A bubble that never pops sounds like the sort of thing that the laws of economics should rule out, like a free lunch or an unpocketed dollar bill. In fact, theorists have long entertained the possibility of sustainable bubbles, inspired by the work of two Nobel prizewinners, Paul Samuelson in 1958 and Jean Tirole in 1985.

dollar bill是美鈔的意思，unpocketed dollar bill：不進入口袋的美鈔（這個不清楚是描繪什么現(xiàn)象，可以肯定的是不符合經(jīng)濟學(xué)一般規(guī)律，屬于例外）

They showed that bubbles can persist when an economy’s growth rate consistently exceeds its interest rate. In these circumstances, a bubble can remain both attractive and affordable,?enticing the buyers?it needs to sustain itself without dwarfing the economy.

Entice??v. /?n?ta?s/ ?[ adv./prep. ] ~ sb (into doing sth) 誘使；引誘? The bargain prices are expected to entice customers away from other stores. 低廉的價格意在把顧客從其他商店吸引過來。?

Dwarf??/dw??f/ n. 侏儒，矮子；（傳說或神話里的）小矮人；矮星?adj. 矮小的；矮生的?v. （使）變矮；使顯得矮小

譯文

FORECASTS CAN?haunt?their authors, especially when they appear in headlines or book titles. Most?pundits?play it safe, giving “a number or a date, but not both”, as an old?sage?once advised. Thomas Orlik of Bloomberg is more?courageous. His latest book, “China: The Bubble That Never Pops”, provides an unusually?even-handed?account of China’s economic resilience that is both closely observed and analytically interesting. But its title offers up quite a?hostage?to fortune. “Never”, after all,?spans?a lot of dates.

預(yù)測會反噬它的作者，尤其是將預(yù)測作為標題或者書名。大多數(shù)的權(quán)威有特殊預(yù)測技巧，正如圣人所建議“給一個數(shù)據(jù)或者日期，但不要全給”。彭博社的Thomas·Orlik有膽量，最新出版的書叫做“中國：永不破滅的氣泡”，不常見的以近距離、全面無偏見的態(tài)度描繪了中國經(jīng)濟韌性，并且分析有趣。但它的標題將自己賭給老天，畢竟，“永不”的期限太長了。

Fortunately for Mr Orlik, his definition of China’s bubble leaves him some?wiggle room. He is not referring to any particular market or?mania?(such as the frenzy for tech stocks this year, bike-sharing in 2017 or?caterpillar fungus?in 2012). The title refers instead to China’s crisis-proof economic?momentum, which has survived countless predictions of collapse. Even now, this?unpoppable force?is?bouncing back?with impressive speed from the covid-19 pandemic (which arrived after this book was written). Will Mr Orlik ever wish he’d never said never?

比較幸運的是，Orlik先生對中國氣泡的定義留有余地。他沒有指特殊的市場或者狂熱，比如今年的科技股狂熱、2017的共享單車熱及2012年的冬蟲夏草。這個標題指的是中國突破經(jīng)濟危機的勢頭，總能使“中國崩潰論”的預(yù)測破滅。甚至現(xiàn)在這種防破能力也讓中國快速的從新冠危機中復(fù)蘇（新冠疫情在本書完成后發(fā)生）。不知道Orlik在疫情中有沒有過后悔的念頭。

Although Mr Orlik does not draw heavily on economic theory to justify his confidence, he can take some comfort from it. A bubble that never pops sounds like the sort of thing that the laws of economics should rule out, like a free lunch or an unpocketed dollar bill. In fact, theorists have long entertained the possibility of sustainable bubbles, inspired by the work of two Nobel prizewinners, Paul Samuelson in 1958 and Jean Tirole in 1985.

盡管Orlik先生沒有著重描述經(jīng)濟學(xué)理論知識去佐證自己判斷的合理性，但他可以得到些許安慰。永不破滅的泡沫就像經(jīng)濟規(guī)律中的例外，比如免費的午餐，未進入口袋的美鈔。其實受兩位諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學(xué)家1958Paul Samuelson，1985年Jean Tirole的啟發(fā)，理論學(xué)家們一直孜孜不倦的探求可持續(xù)泡沫的可能性。

They showed that bubbles can persist when an economy’s growth rate consistently exceeds its interest rate. In these circumstances, a bubble can remain both attractive and affordable,?enticing the buyers?it needs to sustain itself without dwarfing the economy.

他們認為當經(jīng)濟增長率持續(xù)高于利率時，經(jīng)濟泡沫就可以持續(xù)不破。在這種情況下的泡沫既吸引人又不會破，吸引著它所需要的買家源源不斷進入而不損害自身經(jīng)濟。