The World in 2021

Ten trends to watch in the coming year

A letter from Tom Standage, editor of “The World in 2021”

DO YOU FEEL lucky? The number 21 is connected with luck, risk, taking chances and rolling the dice. It’s the number of spots on a standard die, and the number of shillings in a guinea, the currency of wagers?and horse-racing. It’s the minimum age at which you can enter a casino in America, and the name of a family of card games, including blackjack, that are popular with gamblers.

roll the dice：擲骰子；? ? ? ? ? ?standard die：標(biāo)準(zhǔn)模

wager /?we?d??(r)/??1.~ (sth) (on sth)~ sth/sb that... to bet money 打賭；押（賭注）?to wager ￡50 on a horse 在一匹馬上押50英鎊的賭注。?2.[ V (that) ] 打賭；打包票??I'll wager that she knows more about it than she's saying. 我敢打賭，她知道的比她說(shuō)的要多。3.名詞，打賭

All of which seems strangely appropriate for a year of unusual uncertainty. The great prize on offer is the chance of bringing the coronavirus pandemic under control. But in the meantime risks?abound, to health, economic vitality and social stability. As 2021 approaches, here are ten trends to watch in the year ahead.

abound ?v. /??ba?nd/ 大量存在；有許多?? Stories about his travels abound. 有關(guān)他游歷的故事多得很。

A?BOUND WITH/IN STH：有大量；富于??The lakes abound with fish. 這些湖泊盛產(chǎn)魚(yú)。

vitality ?n. /va??t?l?ti/生命力；活力；熱情?? She is bursting with vitality and new ideas. 她朝氣蓬勃，滿腦子新主意。

1.?Fights over vaccines.

As the first vaccines become available in quantity, the focus will shift from the heroic effort of developing them to the equally?daunting task of distributing them. Vaccine diplomacy will accompany fights within and between countries over who should get them and when. A wild card: how many people will refuse a vaccine when offered?

daunting /?d??nt??/ adj. 使人畏縮的；使人氣餒的；令人怯步的

wild card1.(紙牌游戲) （由持牌人自由決定牌值的）百搭派，變牌；2.(體) “百搭”式參賽，“百搭”式參賽選手，“外卡”參賽，“外卡”選手（指沒(méi)有正常參賽資格而參賽）；3.(計(jì)) ?通配符；4.難以預(yù)測(cè)的人（或事物）；未知因素；未知數(shù)

2.?A mixed economic recovery.

As economies bounce back from the pandemic the recovery will be patchy, as local outbreaks and clampdowns?come and go and governments pivot?from keeping companies on life-support to helping workers who have lost their jobs. The gap between strong and weak firms will widen.

Patchy?/?p?t?i/ adj. 零散的；分布不勻的；不完整的；參差不齊的；局部地區(qū)的；不很可靠的，不很令人滿意的

Clampdown??n./?kl?mpda?n/ 嚴(yán)禁，制止，取締（非法活動(dòng)）? a clampdown on drinking and driving 嚴(yán)禁酒后駕車

pivot /?p?v?t/??1.支點(diǎn)；樞軸；中心點(diǎn)。2.最重要的人（或事物）；中心；核心??West Africa was the pivot of the cocoa trade. 西非是可可豆貿(mào)易的中心。3.（使）在樞軸上旋轉(zhuǎn)（或轉(zhuǎn)動(dòng)）?She pivoted around and walked out. 她一轉(zhuǎn)身走了出去。4.pivot on/around sth (論點(diǎn)、理論等) 圍繞（主旨）；以…為核心?

3.?Patching up the new world disorder.

How much will Joe Biden, newly installed in the White House, be able to patch up a crumbling?rules-based international order? The Paris climate treaty and the Iran nuclear deal are obvious places to start. But the crumbling predates?Donald Trump, and will outlast his presidency.

Crumbling??v. 破碎；崩潰（crumble的ing形式）；adj. 破碎的；n. 破碎；皺紋；巖塊剝落

4.?More US-China tensions.

Don’t expect Mr Biden to call off the trade war with China. Instead, he will want to mend relationships with allies to wage?it more effectively. Many countries from Africa to South-East Asia are doing their best to avoiding picking sides as the tension rises.

Wage：作動(dòng)詞，~ sth (against/on sb/sth) 開(kāi)始，發(fā)動(dòng)，進(jìn)行，繼續(xù)（戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、戰(zhàn)斗等）

5. Companies on the front line.?

Another front for the US-China conflict is companies, and not just the obvious examples of Huawei and TikTok, as business becomes even more of a geopolitical battlefield. As well as pressure from above, bosses also face pressure from below, as employees and customers demand that they take stands on climate change and social justice, where politicians have done too little.

譯文

DO YOU FEEL lucky? The number 21 is connected with luck, risk, taking chances and?rolling the dice. It’s the number of spots on?a standard die, and the number of shillings in a guinea, the currency of?wagers?and horse-racing. It’s the minimum age at which you can enter a casino in America, and the name of a family of card games, including blackjack, that are popular with gamblers.

感到幸運(yùn)嗎？數(shù)字21與幸運(yùn)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、機(jī)遇和擲骰子聯(lián)系在一起。一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)骰子共有21點(diǎn)，下注和賽馬采用的貨幣guinea等同21先令。21也是美國(guó)賭場(chǎng)最低準(zhǔn)入年齡和在賭客中流行的家庭卡牌游戲的名字，它里面有“黑杰克”。

All of which seems strangely appropriate for a year of unusual uncertainty. The great prize on offer is the chance of bringing the coronavirus pandemic under control. But in the meantime risks?abound, to health, economic?vitality?and social stability. As 2021 approaches, here are ten trends to watch in the year ahead.

所有這些都與充滿不尋常不確定性的2021年完美契合。2021年最大的獎(jiǎng)賞是將新冠疫情控制住。但與此同時(shí)，威脅健康、經(jīng)濟(jì)活力和社會(huì)穩(wěn)定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大量存在。隨著2021的臨近，這里有10條新一年趨勢(shì)值得觀望。

1.?Fights over vaccines.

As the first vaccines become available in quantity, the focus will shift from the heroic effort of developing them to the equally?daunting?task of distributing them. Vaccine diplomacy will accompany fights within and between countries over who should get them and when. A?wild card: how many people will refuse a vaccine when offered?

趨勢(shì)一：疫苗爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)。

隨著第一批疫苗數(shù)量上得到保障，關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)將從開(kāi)發(fā)疫苗時(shí)的英勇奉獻(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)到艱巨的分配任務(wù)。疫苗外交將伴隨著圍繞國(guó)內(nèi)外疫苗誰(shuí)先使用及什么時(shí)間使用問(wèn)題帶來(lái)內(nèi)部和國(guó)際爭(zhēng)端。一個(gè)未知數(shù)：有多少人將在供應(yīng)疫苗的時(shí)候拒絕使用？

2.?A mixed economic recovery.

As economies bounce back from the pandemic the recovery will be?patchy, as local outbreaks and?clampdowns?come and go and governments?pivot?from keeping companies on life-support to helping workers who have lost their jobs. The gap between strong and weak firms will widen.

趨勢(shì)二：?混雜的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。

隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)從疫情中恢復(fù)，其復(fù)蘇也是參差不齊，因?yàn)橐咔榈木植勘l(fā)和控制此起彼伏。政府的工作重點(diǎn)從救助企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)至疫情中失業(yè)的工人階級(jí)。大公司與小企業(yè)之間的差距進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。

3.?Patching up the new world disorder.

How much will Joe Biden, newly installed in the White House, be able to patch up a?crumbling?rules-based international order? The Paris climate treaty and the Iran nuclear deal are obvious places to start. But the crumbling?predates?Donald Trump, and will outlast his presidency.

趨勢(shì)三：平息世界混亂。

新入住白宮的拜登將何種程度修補(bǔ)已經(jīng)破碎的國(guó)際秩序？巴黎氣候協(xié)定和伊朗核問(wèn)題很明顯是拜登政府準(zhǔn)備啟動(dòng)的。但這種秩序崩潰早在川普上位之前就已經(jīng)存在，還將在拜登時(shí)期存續(xù)。

4 More US-China tensions.

Don’t expect Mr Biden to call off the trade war with China. Instead, he will want to mend relationships with allies to?wage?it more effectively. Many countries from Africa to South-East Asia are doing their best to avoiding picking sides as the tension rises.

趨勢(shì)四： 更多中美沖突。

不要期望拜登會(huì)叫停中美之間的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。取而代之，他會(huì)更加想要修補(bǔ)與盟友之間的關(guān)系讓貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)打得更有效。非洲、東南亞很多國(guó)家都在盡最大可能在中美沖突中保持中立。

5 Companies on the front line. Another front for the US-China conflict is companies, and not just the obvious examples of Huawei and TikTok, as business becomes even more of a geopolitical battlefield. As well as pressure from above, bosses also face pressure from below, as employees and customers demand that they take stands on climate change and social justice, where politicians have done too little.

趨勢(shì)五：公司成為中美沖突的排頭兵。

中美沖突的另一個(gè)前線是企業(yè)，由于商業(yè)越來(lái)越像地緣政治的戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)，不會(huì)只有華為和抖音國(guó)際這樣明顯的例子。企業(yè)老板不僅面臨來(lái)自上層的壓力，還有下層的壓力。在氣候變化和社會(huì)正義這些政治人物不怎么關(guān)心的領(lǐng)域，企業(yè)雇員和客戶選擇為其站臺(tái)。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人2020年12月刊