More than a million English students take out a student loan each year. But for the past decade the term “student loan” has been a misnomer. For most, the agreement works more like a graduate tax with an expiry date. Graduates pay 9% of their earnings above a certain threshold (currently ￡27,295, or $34,695, a year) towards repaying their debt. Anything still owing after 30 years is written off.?

每年有100多萬英國學(xué)生申請學(xué)生貸款。但在過去的十年中，“學(xué)生貸款”一詞一直是用詞不當(dāng)。對大多數(shù)人來說，這份協(xié)議更像是有期限的畢業(yè)稅。畢業(yè)生在一定門檻(目前為每年27295英鎊或34695美元)以上的收入中，有9%要用于償還債務(wù)。30年后仍欠下的債務(wù)將注銷。

From September 2023 this system is set to change. The Department for Education (DFE) announced a suite of reforms earlier this year. They range from the eye-catching (forgiving the debt after 40 years rather than 30) to the wonkish (lowering the earnings threshold and changing the way it is indexed). Taken together, they amount to the biggest overhaul of student finance since tuition fees were tripled in 2012. Ben Waltmann of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a think-tank, estimates that under the new system, nearly three-quarters of graduates will repay their debt in full, up from only a quarter under the old one.?

從2023年9月起，這一體系將發(fā)生變化。今年早些時候，教育部宣布了一系列改革措施。從引人注目的（在40年后而不是30年后免除債務(wù)）到古怪的（降低收入門檻并改變其指數(shù)化方式）?？偟膩碚f，這是自2012年學(xué)費(fèi)翻了兩番以來，對學(xué)生財(cái)務(wù)的最大改革。智庫財(cái)政研究所（Institute for Fiscal Studies）的本·沃爾特曼（Ben Waltmann）估計(jì)，在新制度下，近四分之三的畢業(yè)生將全額償還債務(wù)，而舊制度下只有四分之一。

For the cohort starting university next year, the changes will mean a big redistribution of who pays what towards higher education. Less punitive interest rates for higher earners mean that those in the top decile of lifetime earnings can expect to pay back ￡25,000 less than under the current arrangement. Meanwhile, the extended repayment term and the lower earnings threshold mean that lower and middle earners will pay more: around ￡30,000 more for those in the third income decile.?

對于明年開始上大學(xué)的學(xué)生來說，這些變化意味著高等教育費(fèi)用的重新分配。對高收入者懲罰性較低的利率意味著，那些在一生收入中處于前十分之一的人，預(yù)計(jì)將比目前的安排少償還2.5萬英鎊。與此同時，還款期限的延長和收入門檻的降低意味著中低收入者將支付更多:收入第三高的人群將多支付約3萬英鎊。

The reforms have much to recommend them. There is some evidence that the prospect of taking on debt has a deterrent effect on people from poorer backgrounds who are considering going to university. But the earnings threshold continues to protect people from repayments until they are pocketing a certain wage. Taxpayers will save ￡2.8bn for each university cohort. Incentives change in good ways: encouraging students to pick subjects that will increase their lifetime earnings is in both their and the economy’s interests.?

這些改革有很多可取之處。有證據(jù)表明，債務(wù)的前景對那些考慮上大學(xué)的貧困家庭的人有威懾作用。但收入門檻繼續(xù)保護(hù)人們，直到他們有了一定的工資。納稅人將為每個大學(xué)畢業(yè)生節(jié)省28億英鎊。激勵機(jī)制正在以良好的方式改變:鼓勵學(xué)生選擇能夠增加終生收入的學(xué)科，這既符合學(xué)生自身利益，也符合經(jīng)濟(jì)利益。

But the changes fail to fix some big shortcomings in the current set-up. Mr Waltmann points out that maintenance support, loans to help pay for living costs, is now falling fast in real terms. Payments are based on old forecasts of retail price index (RPI) inflation that underestimated how quickly the index would rise. He calculates that students from the poorest families will receive ￡100 a month less than they would have done had their support been linked to actual RPI inflation. At the same time, interest rates for existing borrowers are set to soar in September. Although the DFE must cap these in line with commercial rates, it typically does so with a six-month delay. For higher earners, that implies half a year of paying 12% interest, nearly double the commercial rate.

但這些變化并沒有解決當(dāng)前設(shè)置中的一些重大缺陷。沃爾特曼指出，用于支付生活費(fèi)用的維修支持貸款的實(shí)際價(jià)值正在快速下降。付款基于對零售價(jià)格指數(shù)（RPI）通脹的舊預(yù)測，該預(yù)測低估了該指數(shù)的上升速度。他計(jì)算出，來自最貧困家庭的學(xué)生每月將獲得100英鎊的收入，比他們的支持與實(shí)際的RPI通脹掛鉤時要少。與此同時，現(xiàn)有借款人的利率將在9月份飆升。盡管DFE必須根據(jù)商業(yè)利率對其進(jìn)行限制，但通常會延遲六個月。對于收入較高的人來說，這意味著半年要支付12%的利息，幾乎是商業(yè)利率的兩倍。

Worse, as well as changing the rules for future students, the reforms also rewrite repayment terms for the roughly 3.5m people who have taken out loans since 2012. A frozen earnings threshold will increase their monthly repayments from this September, just as the rising cost of living really starts to bite. Linking this threshold in the future to the RPI, a flawed measure of inflation that is set to be reformed, bakes in further uncertainty. These changes do not just hurt existing borrowers in every earnings decile, but also risk deterring future students. Why take out a loan if the terms can change whenever the government wants?

更糟糕的是，除了改變未來學(xué)生的規(guī)則外，改革還改寫了自2012年以來約350萬人的還款條件。凍結(jié)的收入門檻將增加他們從今年9月開始的每月還款，而與此同時，生活成本的上升真的開始產(chǎn)生影響。將未來的這一門檻與RPI聯(lián)系起來，RPI是一個有缺陷的通脹衡量指標(biāo)，即將進(jìn)行改革，這會帶來進(jìn)一步的不確定性。這些變化不僅損害了收入十分之一的現(xiàn)有借款人，還可能阻礙未來的學(xué)生。如果條件可以隨時改變，為什么還要貸款呢？