Author(s): John Haldon, Neil Roberts, Adam Izdebski, Dominik Fleitmann, Michael McCormick, Marica Cassis, Owen Doonan, Warren Eastwood, Hugh Elton, Sabine Ladst?tter, Sturt Manning, James Newhard, Kathleen Nicoll, Ioannes Telelis and Elena Xoplaki
Published by: The MIT Press
翻譯：神尾智代

接上

The case for Anatolia

安納托利亞的案例

Byzantine Anatolia is a fitting locus for a multidisciplinary study because it is has three vital types of data in abundance - written, archaeological, and palaeoenvironmental (see Table i). Other candidates, like the ancient Maya lowlands, are weak in the written component or, like early modern and modern Europe, are already well documented in both historical and paleoclimatic records. Anatolia's historical data allows us to test such critical causal propositions as "drought causes societal collapse," which would be difficult to falsify in a setting without documentary evidence - say, the end of the Early Bronze Age in the Middle East. Nor does it hurt that Anatolia is currently a major focus of attention with regard to climate change.

????????? 拜占庭安納托利亞是多學(xué)科研究的合適地點，因為它擁有豐富的三種重要數(shù)據(jù)類型——書面數(shù)據(jù)、考古數(shù)據(jù)和古環(huán)境數(shù)據(jù)（見表 1）。其他候選者，如古代瑪雅低地，在書面成分方面較弱，或者像早期現(xiàn)代和現(xiàn)代歐洲一樣，已經(jīng)在歷史和古氣候記錄中得到了很好的記錄。安納托利亞的歷史數(shù)據(jù)使我們能夠檢驗諸如“干旱導(dǎo)致社會崩潰”之類的關(guān)鍵因果命題，在沒有文件證據(jù)的情況下很難證偽——例如，中東早期青銅時代結(jié)束。安納托利亞目前是氣候變化的主要關(guān)注焦點，這也無傷大雅。

Following a workshop at Princeton University in May 2013, a small group of climate and environmental scientists, historians, and archaeologists established a project to examine Anatolia and adjacent lands between the second/third century and the thirteenth/ fourteenth century C.E. - the period that saw the "decline and fall" of the Roman Empire in the west, the survival of the Byzantine Empire (something of a misnomer but a well-established one) in the east, the rise of the Arab-Islamic Empire in the eastern provinces of the late Roman state during the seventh century C.E., the appearance of Turkic peoples first in Iran and then the Middle East from the later tenth and eleventh centuries C.E. and their occupation of the Anatolian plateau, and the rise of Ottoman power (see appendix 2 for a selective list of historical events). This article deals primarily with the early part of the period.

?????????? 繼 2013 年 5 月在普林斯頓大學(xué)舉辦的研討會之后，一小群氣候和環(huán)境科學(xué)家、歷史學(xué)家和考古學(xué)家建立了一個項目，以檢查公元 2/3 世紀(jì)和 13/14 世紀(jì)之間的安納托利亞和鄰近土地——這一時期見證了 西方羅馬帝國的“衰亡”，東方拜占庭帝國的存亡（用詞不當(dāng)，但已確立），阿拉伯伊斯蘭帝國在東部省份的崛起 公元 7 世紀(jì)晚期的羅馬國家，突厥人首先出現(xiàn)在伊朗，然后從公元 10 世紀(jì)和 11 世紀(jì)后期開始出現(xiàn)在中東，他們對安納托利亞高原的占領(lǐng)，以及奧斯曼帝國的崛起（見附錄 2） 歷史事件的選擇性列表）。本文主要討論該時期的早期階段。

Environmentally, Anatolia and the southern Balkans are subject to three large-scale circulation systems that affect the region at different times of the year - the North Atlantic system, the South Asian summer monsoonal system, and the continental winter climate system, anchored over northern Asia, western Russia, and Siberia. Anatolia also contains a wide range of geographies, from open lowlands and upland plains to mountains, forests, and steppes, as well as significant variations in climate. Some parts of the area have extremely cold winters with considerable snow, while others have mostly damp winters; summers vary from damp and hot to dry and extremely hot.

?????????? 在環(huán)境方面，安納托利亞和巴爾干南部受三個大規(guī)模環(huán)流系統(tǒng)的影響，這些系統(tǒng)在一年中的不同時間影響該地區(qū)——北大西洋系統(tǒng)、南亞夏季風(fēng)系統(tǒng)和大陸冬季氣候系統(tǒng)，錨定在亞洲北部 、俄羅斯西部和西伯利亞。 安納托利亞還包含廣泛的地理范圍，從開闊的低地和高地平原到山脈、森林和草原，以及氣候的顯著變化。 該地區(qū)的某些地區(qū)冬季極其寒冷，降雪量很大，而其他地區(qū)的冬季大多潮濕； 夏季從潮濕炎熱到干燥極端炎熱不等。

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As Figure 2a indicates, central and western Anatolia, along with Thrace, show a notable spatial coherence of temperature and precipitation during the recent period of instrumental measurements. Such coherence is also likely to have been the case during the last two millennia (although, interestingly, the southern Levant has shown an opposite pattern). The fact that this same area broadly coincides with the extent of Byzantine Anatolia between 660 C.E. and 1071 C.E. permits us to map the two directly onto each other (Figure 2b).

?????????? 如圖 2a 所示，在最近的儀器測量期間，安納托利亞中部和西部以及色雷斯顯示出顯著的溫度和降水空間一致性。 在過去的兩千年里，這種連貫性也很可能出現(xiàn)（盡管有趣的是，黎凡特南部表現(xiàn)出相反的模式）。 這同一地區(qū)與公元 660 年至公元 1071 年之間拜占庭安納托利亞的范圍大體一致，這一事實使我們能夠?qū)烧咧苯佑成涞奖舜松希▓D 2b）。

Anatolia supports a substantial microregional differentiation in climate, land use and demographic history; the relationship between historically attested extreme weather events, longer-term climate change, and socio-economic organization there presents singular opportunities and challenges. Since the Roman, early medieval European, and early and middle Byzantine era, unlike more recent historical periods, has no continuous written records, the uncertainties accompanying the integration of historical, archaeological, climatic data abound. Yet, thanks to the introduction of new approaches and new sources, the study of Anatolia promises to expand and deepen our understanding of how society functioned, particularly when environmental changes stressed that society. The whole is considerably greater in this respect than the sum of the parts in such a project: The interaction of climate scientists and palaeoenvironmentalists with historians and archaeologists promotes a much better understanding of the methodological problems that specialists encounter, as well as a more coherent and synthetically persuasive integrated interpretation of the various datasets that they deliver to each other.

????????? 安納托利亞在氣候、土地利用和人口歷史方面支持顯著的微觀區(qū)域差異；歷史證明的極端天氣事件、長期氣候變化與那里的社會經(jīng)濟組織之間的關(guān)系帶來了獨特的機遇和挑戰(zhàn)。由于羅馬、中世紀(jì)早期的歐洲和拜占庭時代的早期和中期，不像最近的歷史時期，沒有連續(xù)的書面記錄，伴隨著歷史、考古、氣候數(shù)據(jù)整合的不確定性比比皆是。然而，由于引入了新方法和新資源，對安納托利亞的研究有望擴大和加深我們對社會如何運作的理解，特別是當(dāng)環(huán)境變化對社會造成壓力時。在這方面，整體比這樣一個項目中各個部分的總和要大得多：氣候科學(xué)家和古環(huán)境學(xué)家與歷史學(xué)家和考古學(xué)家的互動促進(jìn)了對專家遇到的方法問題的更好理解，以及更加連貫和對它們相互提供的各種數(shù)據(jù)集的綜合有說服力的綜合解釋。

Human adaptation and climatic change

人類適應(yīng)和氣候變化

Anatolia is relatively rich in useful palaeoenvironmental data compared to other parts of the Eastern Mediterranean; we know a good deal about its vegetation and land-use history thanks to palynology. One phenomenon on which palynological data from Georgia and Iranian Azerbaijan across to the Balkans and the Levant shed light is the Beysehir Occupation Phase (BOP), a distinctive Late Holocene period of anthropogenic activity marked by the cultivation of olive and nut trees, cereal growing, and pastoralism - the dominant form of agrarian exploitation from the Late Bronze Age to the Hellenistic-Roman and Byzantine world in the Eastern Mediterranean (c. 300 B.C.E. to c. 700/800 C.E.). Although it began and ended in different places at different times, the bop roughly dates from the "Minoan Warm period" c. 1500 B.C.E. to the markedly cooler seventh/ eighth century C.E, identified chiefly through the evidence of pollen found in such natural deposits as lake beds. Although most clearly evident in the upland valleys of southwest Anatolia, it is also recorded in pollen diagrams from sites in central and northwestern Turkey and parts of Greece. Archaeologists associate this phase with a range of material-cultural phenotypes characteristic of the classical cultures of antiquity.

????????? 與東地中海其他地區(qū)相比，安納托利亞擁有相對豐富的有用古環(huán)境數(shù)據(jù)；由于孢粉學(xué)，我們對它的植被和土地利用歷史有了很多了解。從格魯吉亞和伊朗阿塞拜疆到巴爾干和黎凡特的孢粉學(xué)數(shù)據(jù)揭示的一個現(xiàn)象是 Beysehir 占領(lǐng)階段 (BOP)，這是一個獨特的全新世晚期人類活動，以橄欖樹和堅果樹的種植、谷物種植、和畜牧業(yè) - 從青銅時代晚期到東地中海的希臘羅馬和拜占庭世界（公元前 300 年至公元 700/800 年）的主要農(nóng)業(yè)剝削形式。雖然它在不同的時間開始和結(jié)束的地方不同，但波普大致可以追溯到“米諾斯暖期”。公元前 1500 年到明顯涼爽的公元七/八世紀(jì)，主要是通過在湖床等天然沉積物中發(fā)現(xiàn)的花粉證據(jù)來確定的。盡管在安納托利亞西南部的高地山谷中最為明顯，但在土耳其中部和西北部以及希臘部分地區(qū)的花粉圖中也有記錄?？脊艑W(xué)家將這一階段與一系列具有古代古典文化特征的物質(zhì)文化表型聯(lián)系起來。

The debate about the end date for the bop is explicable only partially by the imprecision of the chronologies derived from the various data sets. In certain sites with well-defined timescales, the end is dated to the middle or later seventh century C.E., whereas in others, its termination is earlier, sometimes considerably so. The pollen at the sites of Lakes Beysehir and Hoyran suggest a date in the middle years of the sixth century (see Figure 3 and Table 2). Those at Lake Bafa on the Aegean Coast and the one at K?ycegiz on the southern coast indicate that BOP-type agriculture ceased during the later third or fourth century.

????????? 關(guān)于BOP結(jié)束日期的爭論只能部分地通過從各種數(shù)據(jù)集得出的年表的不精確性來解釋。 在某些具有明確時間尺度的地點，結(jié)束時間可以追溯到公元 7 世紀(jì)中后期，而在其他地點，它的結(jié)束時間更早，有時甚至相當(dāng)可觀。 Beysehir 湖和 Hoyran 湖遺址的花粉表明年代為 6 世紀(jì)中葉（見圖 3 和表 2）。 愛琴海沿岸的 Bafa 湖和南部海岸的 K?ycegiz 的那些表明 BOP 型農(nóng)業(yè)在 3 或 4 世紀(jì)后期停止了。

What caused this discrepancy? Did the change occur synchronously or diachronously across different regions? Furthermore, to what extent did its end coincide with observable changes in the social, economic, and political histories of the regions in which it had been dominant? It should be borne in mind that the relatively few 碳14 dates offered by older pollen studies derived from bulk organic matter rather than AMS dating, which can be applied to much smaller samples (for example, single charred cereal grains) and achieve smaller statistical age uncertainty. Hence, dating of the bop's end in most of these older records has a precision of no better than ±200 years. What is clear is that almost all of the records show a sharp decline in anthropogenic indicators and a rise in pine pollen at some point during the middle of the first millennium C.E., indicating a decline in rural agriculture and a re-wilding of many landscapes.

????????? 是什么導(dǎo)致了這種差異？ 變化是同步發(fā)生還是歷時發(fā)生在不同地區(qū)？ 此外，它的結(jié)束在多大程度上與它曾經(jīng)統(tǒng)治過的地區(qū)的社會、經(jīng)濟和政治歷史的可觀察變化相吻合？ 應(yīng)該記住，較舊的花粉研究提供的碳 14 日期相對較少，來自散裝有機物質(zhì)而不是 AMS 測年，它可以應(yīng)用于小得多的樣本（例如，單一燒焦的谷物）并實現(xiàn)更小的統(tǒng)計年齡 不確定。 因此，在大多數(shù)這些較舊的記錄中，對波峰末端的測年精度不超過±200 年。 清楚的是，幾乎所有的記錄都顯示，在公元第一個千年中期的某個時間點，人為指標(biāo)急劇下降，松花粉增加，表明農(nóng)村農(nóng)業(yè)下降，許多景觀重新野化。

Although anthropogenic factors probably played a major role in the appearance of the BOP, a beneficial climate régime must have had something to do with it; thus, the relationship between human and climatic factors still needs to be addressed. Although the appearance of the BOP coincides with the rise of the first major state formations in several areas, the climatic "tipping points" for substantive change clearly varied. The economic and social-political developments that accompanied the end of the BOP comprise only part of the many complex changes that Byzantium - in particular, its Anatolian territories - underwent from 400 C to 1400 C.E.

盡管人為因素可能在 BOP 的出現(xiàn)中發(fā)揮了重要作用，但有利的氣候制度肯定與它有關(guān)； 因此，人類因素與氣候因素之間的關(guān)系仍需處理。 盡管國際收支的出現(xiàn)恰逢幾個地區(qū)的第一批主要國家形態(tài)的興起，但實質(zhì)性變化的氣候“臨界點”顯然各不相同。 伴隨國際收支結(jié)束的經(jīng)濟和社會政治發(fā)展只是拜占庭——特別是其安納托利亞領(lǐng)土——從公元 400 年到公元 1400 年所經(jīng)歷的許多復(fù)雜變化的一部分。

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How we understand the Byzantine response to the crisis of the later seventh and early eighth centuries depends on the palaeoclimatic work discussed above. It reveals that much, but not all, of Anatolia experienced a wetter climate from the sixth to the later seventh century, possibly stretching into the early eighth century in some areas, although the end of this humid phase varies by site: at Nar G?lü in central Cappadocia (known by the tenth century as "lesser Cappadocia)" and at ??l G?lü near ?ankin (Gaggra) to the east of Ankara - typical of the central sections of the plateau 750 C; at Tecer G?lü in northwestern Cappadocia the later eighth century; and at Gravgaz marsh in southwestern Anatolia the middle of the seventh century.

????????? 我們?nèi)绾卫斫獍菡纪?/span> 7 世紀(jì)后期和 8 世紀(jì)早期危機的反應(yīng)取決于上面討論的古氣候工作。 它表明，從六世紀(jì)到七世紀(jì)后期，安納托利亞的大部分（但不是全部）經(jīng)歷了更潮濕的氣候，在某些地區(qū)可能會延續(xù)到八世紀(jì)初期，盡管這一潮濕階段的結(jié)束因地點而異：在納爾格呂 卡帕多西亞中部（10 世紀(jì)稱為“小卡帕多西亞”）和安卡拉以東 ?ankin (Gaggra) 附近的 ??l G?lü - 典型的高原中央部分 750 C； 八世紀(jì)后期在卡帕多西亞西北部的 Tecer G?lü； 七世紀(jì)中葉在安納托利亞西南部的格拉夫加茲沼澤。

Temperature is also important in Anatolia and the Byzantine world. Given its raised central plateau, and marked variations in elevation, the cooling associated with reduced solar activity (major solar minimum in the seventh century C.E.) would have had varying effects. These effects would have been most pronounced in the most elevated areas with longer snow-covered winters, reduced growing seasons, and generally less favorable circumstances for certain crops and types of farming. But, notwithstanding the limited nature of the data, this general climatic pattern seems to have been replicated, with minor variations, across Anatolia. Indeed, the available textual evidence from the wider eastern Mediterranean and Levantine context hints at the instability that these climatic conditions promoted - a comparatively greater number of severe winters and apparently unusually severe frosts and snows across the later sixth and into the eighth century in the Levant and Asia Minor, as well as occasional droughts and aridity-related events. A recent analysis of Arabic written sources from Baghdad (Iraq) for the period 830 C.E. to the early eleventh century, for example, found a preponderance of cold-winter anomalies for the first part of the tenth century.

????????? 溫度在安納托利亞和拜占庭世界也很重要。鑒于其中央高原隆起和海拔的顯著變化，與太陽活動減少（公元 7 世紀(jì)的主要太陽活動極小期）相關(guān)的冷卻會產(chǎn)生不同的影響。這些影響在海拔最高的地區(qū)最為明顯，這些地區(qū)的冬季積雪更長，生長季節(jié)縮短，某些作物和耕作類型的環(huán)境通常不太有利。但是，盡管數(shù)據(jù)的性質(zhì)有限，但這種普遍的氣候模式似乎已在整個安納托利亞復(fù)制，只是略有不同。事實上，來自更廣泛的東地中海和黎凡特背景的現(xiàn)有文本證據(jù)暗示了這些氣候條件促進(jìn)的不穩(wěn)定性——在黎凡特的六世紀(jì)后期和八世紀(jì)，嚴(yán)冬的數(shù)量相對較多，并且明顯異常嚴(yán)重的霜凍和降雪和小亞細(xì)亞，以及偶爾的干旱和干旱相關(guān)事件。例如，最近對公元 830 年至 11 世紀(jì)早期巴格達(dá)（伊拉克）阿拉伯文字資料的分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，10 世紀(jì)上半葉出現(xiàn)了大量的冬季異?，F(xiàn)象。

未完待續(xù)