經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人2019.6.22/Coin flip

Coin flip
拋硬幣
Facebook wants to create a worldwide digital currency
Facebook希望創(chuàng)造一種全球數(shù)字貨幣
Libra could be massively disruptive—including to the social network itself
“天秤”可能會(huì)造成巨大的干擾,包括社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)本身

Jun 20th 2019 | SAN FRANCISCO
A GLOBAL DIGITAL currency would make sending money across the world as easy as texting. It would do away with fees, delays and other barriers to the flow of cash. It might give those in less developed countries access to the financial system and a means to protect hard-earned wages against runaway inflation. It could trigger a wave of innovation in finance, much as the internet did in online services.
全球數(shù)字貨幣將使向世界各地匯款變得像發(fā)短信一樣容易。它將消除費(fèi)用、延誤和其他阻礙現(xiàn)金流動(dòng)的障礙。它可能會(huì)讓欠發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的人進(jìn)入金融體系,并提供一種手段,保護(hù)辛苦掙來(lái)的工資不受失控通脹的影響。它可能引發(fā)金融領(lǐng)域的一波革新浪潮,就像互聯(lián)網(wǎng)在在線服務(wù)領(lǐng)域所做的那樣。
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That, in a nutshell, is what Facebook promised on June 18th. Within a year, the social network will launch a new currency to be known as Libra, in honour of an ancient Roman unit of mass—it is also the word for “pound” in many romance languages. Inevitably, Facebook dished out a generous helping of trendy words like crypto and blockchain. Unable to contain its appetite for Silicon Valley platitudes, Facebook claimed that its mission was to “empower billions of people”. Making money or strengthening its market power are, apparently, a sideshow.
簡(jiǎn)而言之,這就是Facebook在6月18日做出的承諾。在一年內(nèi),這家社交網(wǎng)站將推出一種名為“天平”的新貨幣,以紀(jì)念古羅馬的一個(gè)質(zhì)量單位——在許多羅曼語(yǔ)中,“天平”也是“磅”的意思。Facebook不可避免地提供了大量的流行詞匯,比如crypto(加密)和blockchain(區(qū)塊鏈)。由于平凡陳腐的硅谷已近無(wú)法滿足其野心,F(xiàn)acebook宣稱其使命是“賦予數(shù)十億人權(quán)力”。顯然,賺錢或增強(qiáng)其市場(chǎng)實(shí)力只是一個(gè)插曲。
詞匯
dish out/給予;分發(fā)
Platitude/陳詞濫調(diào);平凡;陳腐
Sideshow/穿插表演;串演的節(jié);小事件
Notwithstanding the guff, the commercial potential is indeed significant—as are the potential problems. If each of Facebook’s 2.4bn users converted a slice of their savings into Libras, it could become a widely circulated currency. It could also, if broadly adopted, vest unprecedented power in the hands of its issuer. In a tacit acknowledgment that its mishandling of user data, tolerance of the spread of misinformation and other sins have devalued its stock with policymakers, users and potential partners—though not investors—Facebook wants to outsource the running of Libra to a consortium of worthies recruited from the world of finance, technology and NGOs. The consequences for the global financial system could be significant. So could the impact on Facebook’s business.
盡管有這些廢話,但商業(yè)潛力確實(shí)很重要——潛在的問(wèn)題也是如此。如果Facebook 24億用戶中的每一位都將自己的一部分儲(chǔ)蓄轉(zhuǎn)化為L(zhǎng)ibras,它可能會(huì)成為一種廣泛流通的貨幣。如果得到廣泛采納,它還可能將前所未有的權(quán)力授予發(fā)行者。在心照不宣之下,用戶數(shù)據(jù)的處理不當(dāng),容忍錯(cuò)誤信息的傳播和其他過(guò)失致使其股票貶值政策制定者,用戶和潛在搭檔——盡管并不是投資者——Facebook想讓外包““天秤””項(xiàng)目的群體為一個(gè)由來(lái)自來(lái)自世界的金融、科技和非政府組織知名人士組成的一個(gè)財(cái)團(tuán)。這對(duì)全球金融體系的影響可能是重大的。對(duì)Facebook業(yè)務(wù)的影響也是如此。
詞匯
Tacit/緘默的;不言而喻的;心照不宣
Consortium/財(cái)團(tuán);聯(lián)合
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If the project lives up to the mock-ups, buying, selling, holding, sending and receiving Libras will become a doddle. It can be done in Facebook’s Messenger app or WhatsApp, another messaging-service-cum-social-network it owns—and, later next year, in a stand-alone app.
如果該項(xiàng)目符合實(shí)物模型的要求,那么購(gòu)買、出售、持有、發(fā)送和接收““天秤””將變得輕而易舉。它可以在Facebook的Messenger小程序或另一款通訊服務(wù)兼社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)WhatsApp中完成,明年晚些時(shí)候,該種貨幣還可以在一個(gè)獨(dú)立的應(yīng)用程序中實(shí)現(xiàn)。
詞匯
mock-up/實(shí)物模型
doddle/輕而易舉的事,不費(fèi)吹灰之力的事
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So far, so familiar. Messenger already offers payments to Americans. WhatsApp is testing a similar function in India. But these services do not cross borders, and require users to have a bank account. Fintech firms like TransferWise, which offer international transfers, take a 4-5% cut to wire $200, a third less than Western Union. But Libra will be much cheaper, and require no bank accounts: more Bitcoin than Venmo.
到目前為止,一切流程都是很熟悉。“信使”程序已經(jīng)向美國(guó)人提供支付服務(wù)。WhatsApp正在印度測(cè)試類似的功能。但這些服務(wù)不跨越國(guó)界,要求用戶擁有銀行賬戶。像TransferWise這樣提供國(guó)際轉(zhuǎn)賬服務(wù)的金融科技公司,電匯200美元的費(fèi)用減少了4-5%,比西聯(lián)匯款少了三分之一。但““天秤”“會(huì)便宜得多,而且不需要銀行賬戶:比通過(guò)Venmo這個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)賬媒介花費(fèi)更少的比特幣(數(shù)字貨幣)。。
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Except that, unlike Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies, Libras will change hands in seconds, not minutes, for next to nothing, not a few dollars. The system should handle 1,000 transactions a second at its launch, and more later, compared with no more than seven a second for Bitcoin. The virtual coins will be bought with real money, which will top up the reserve backing the currency. This should prevent wild price swings from speculation.
不過(guò),與比特幣和其他加密貨幣不同,”天秤”的易手時(shí)間是幾秒鐘,而不是幾分鐘。該系統(tǒng)啟動(dòng)時(shí)每秒應(yīng)處理1000筆交易,之后還會(huì)處理更多交易,而比特幣每秒的交易量不超過(guò)7筆。虛擬貨幣將用真金白銀購(gòu)買,這將補(bǔ)充貨幣的儲(chǔ)備。這應(yīng)該可以防止投機(jī)交易導(dǎo)致價(jià)格的劇烈波動(dòng)。
詞匯
Speculation/投機(jī);推測(cè);思索;投機(jī)買賣
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If it works, Libra could be a money-spinner for Facebook, albeit not directly. Notional transaction fees would not generate much revenue. But Libras should allow Facebook to charge more for online ads, by making purchases of advertised products quicker and simpler. It could furnish a new source of data to target adverts, making up for user information Facebook will forgo with the “pivot to privacy”, which Mark Zuckerberg, its boss, proclaimed in March in respect of messaging. Facebook may catch up with WeChat, a Chinese super-app which offers payments and other services, and whose foreign ambitions are on hold as the Sino-American trade war rages on.
如果成功了,“天秤”可以成為Facebook的搖錢樹,盡管不是直接的搖錢樹。名義上的交易費(fèi)用不會(huì)產(chǎn)生多少收入。但“天秤”的用戶應(yīng)該允許Facebook對(duì)在線廣告收取更高的費(fèi)用,方法是更快、更簡(jiǎn)單地購(gòu)買廣告產(chǎn)品。Facebook的老板馬克?扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)在今年3月宣布,Facebook將推出“轉(zhuǎn)向隱私”(pivot to privacy)服務(wù),以彌補(bǔ)用戶信息的不足。Facebook可能會(huì)趕上微信,這是一個(gè)提供支付和其他服務(wù)的中國(guó)超級(jí)應(yīng)用程序,隨著中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的繼續(xù),它的海外野心被擱置。
詞匯
Forgo/放棄;停止;對(duì)…斷念
Pivot/在樞軸上轉(zhuǎn)動(dòng);隨…轉(zhuǎn)移
Technically and financially, Facebook could probably pull off such an ambitious undertaking on its own. But not politically. Its culture is less amoral than it was in its youth, when it aspired to “move fast and break things”—but only a bit. Chary consumers may choose not to entrust their money to a social network which has, until recently, leaked their personal data left and right. Unless users are on board, merchants may be reluctant to embrace the currency, however hassle-free.
從技術(shù)和財(cái)務(wù)上講,F(xiàn)acebook很可能獨(dú)自完成這樣一項(xiàng)雄心勃勃的事業(yè)。但不是政治。它的文化不像年輕時(shí)那么不道德,那時(shí)它渴望“快速行動(dòng),打破陳規(guī)”——但只是局部。謹(jǐn)慎的消費(fèi)者可能會(huì)選擇不把錢托付給一個(gè)直到最近才左右泄露了他們個(gè)人數(shù)據(jù)的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)。除非用戶同意,否則商家可能不愿接受這種貨幣,盡管這種貨幣沒(méi)有任何麻煩。
詞匯
Amoral/與道德無(wú)關(guān)的;無(wú)從區(qū)分是非的;超道德的
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Enter the Libra consortium. The association, to be based in Geneva, will take over from Facebook before the first Libra has been spent, and manage the hard-currency reserves. Facebook has enlisted 28 other prospective founding members out of an envisaged 100, each with equal voting rights and operating a node in a decentralised system which issues coins. They include financial firms (Visa, Stripe), online services (Spotify, Uber), cryptocurrency wallets (Anchorage, Coinbase), venture capitalists (Andreessen Horowitz, Union Square Ventures) and charities (Kiva, Mercy Corps)—though, for the time being, no banks. Not a libertarian alternative to the existing financial system, in other words, but a complement.
進(jìn)入“天秤”財(cái)團(tuán)。該協(xié)會(huì)總部位于日內(nèi)瓦,將在“天秤”的第一筆錢花完之前接管Facebook,并管理硬通貨儲(chǔ)備。Facebook從預(yù)計(jì)的100名創(chuàng)始成員中招募了28名其他潛在創(chuàng)始成員,每個(gè)人都擁有平等的投票權(quán),并在一個(gè)發(fā)行硬幣的分散化系統(tǒng)中運(yùn)營(yíng)一個(gè)節(jié)點(diǎn)。它們包括金融公司(Visa、Stripe)、在線服務(wù)公司(Spotify、Uber)、加密貨幣錢包(Anchorage、Coinbase)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家(安德森?霍洛維茨基金(Andreessen Horowitz)、聯(lián)合廣場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資公司(Union Square Ventures)和慈善機(jī)構(gòu)(Kiva、美慈)——盡管目前還沒(méi)有銀行。換句話說(shuō),這不是對(duì)現(xiàn)有金融體系的自由主義替代,而是一種補(bǔ)充。
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To add credibility to its promise, broken in the past, to keep social and financial data separate, Facebook has created a subsidiary, Calibra, to run Libra services within its apps. It is unlikely to face hurdles to uptake from Apple or Google. It is impossible to imagine them expelling Messenger and WhatsApp—and later other providers Facebook is inviting to the open-source project—from their app stores, as they have done with other cryptocurrency offerings, many of which were scams.
Facebook過(guò)去曾承諾將社交數(shù)據(jù)和財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)分開,為了增加可信度,該公司創(chuàng)建了一個(gè)子公司Calibra,在其應(yīng)用程序中運(yùn)行“天秤”服務(wù)。它不太可能面臨從蘋果或谷歌那里收購(gòu)的障礙。很難想象他們會(huì)像對(duì)待其他加密貨幣產(chǎn)品一樣,將Messenger和whatsapp(后來(lái)Facebook還邀請(qǐng)其他提供商加入開源項(xiàng)目)從他們的應(yīng)用程序商店中驅(qū)逐出去,其中很多都是騙局。
詞匯
expell/驅(qū)逐
To get Libra going, the consortium will pay merchants to offer discounts to customers who use the new currency, financed by a $10m one-off fee each member pays for a seat at the table. Eventually, Facebook would like anybody, not just the consortium, to be able to generate the currency, transfer it and offer services on top of its “blockchain” (crypto-speak for the database that keeps track of who owns what). At that point, Libra would turn into Bitcoin, minus the kinks and the libertarianism.
為了讓“天秤”走下去,該財(cái)團(tuán)將付錢給商家,讓他們?yōu)槭褂眯仑泿诺念櫩吞峁┱劭郏Y金來(lái)源是每位(財(cái)團(tuán))會(huì)員支付1000萬(wàn)美元的一次性入席費(fèi)。最終,F(xiàn)acebook希望任何人,不僅僅是財(cái)團(tuán),都能夠生成貨幣,將其轉(zhuǎn)移,并在其“區(qū)塊鏈”(用于跟蹤誰(shuí)擁有什么東西的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)的密碼)之上提供服務(wù)。在那個(gè)時(shí)候,“天秤”會(huì)變成比特幣,去掉那些扭結(jié),奇想和自由主義。
詞匯
?kink/折裂;扭結(jié);奇想

Hard currency
硬通貨
In a project with so many moving parts, much can go wrong. Although Facebook says it has a working prototype, the technology is untested; sceptics doubt that a 100-node system, let alone a bigger one, could process thousands of transactions per second. Hackers are doubtless champing at the bit.
在一個(gè)有這么多活動(dòng)模塊的項(xiàng)目中,可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)很多問(wèn)題。盡管Facebook稱其有一個(gè)工作原型,但該技術(shù)尚未經(jīng)過(guò)測(cè)試;懷疑論者懷疑,一個(gè)擁有100個(gè)節(jié)點(diǎn)的系統(tǒng),更不用說(shuō)一個(gè)更大的系統(tǒng),每秒能處理數(shù)千個(gè)事務(wù)。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),在這系統(tǒng)背后,黑客們正躍躍欲試。
Then there are consortium dynamics. Facebook will have to prove to the other 99 Libra members that it is truly prepared to give up control. At the same time, because important decisions need a two-thirds majority, someone has to knock heads together. The history of information technology is littered with initiatives that collapsed under the weight of internal conflict.
此外還有財(cái)團(tuán)的掌權(quán)部分。Facebook必須向其他99個(gè)“天秤”成員證明,它真的準(zhǔn)備放棄控制權(quán)。與此同時(shí),因?yàn)橹匾臎Q策需要三分之二的多數(shù),所以必須有人集思廣益。在信息技術(shù)的歷史上,充滿了在內(nèi)部沖突的重壓下崩潰的計(jì)劃。
詞匯
Dynamics/動(dòng)力學(xué),力學(xué)
The biggest barrier may be political. Facebook has apparently consulted many regulators. The providers of digital wallets will have to comply with national rules, such as those against money-laundering. Calibra, whose integration into Messenger and WhatsApp will initially make it the dominant wallet, is bound to stoke competition concerns. These may recede as the currency grows bigger and more decentralised, only to be replaced by worries about financial stability.
最大的障礙可能是政治。Facebook顯然咨詢了許多監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)。數(shù)字錢包的提供者必須遵守國(guó)家規(guī)定,比如反洗錢規(guī)定。Calibra與Messenger和WhatsApp的整合,最初將使其成為占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位的錢包,這勢(shì)必會(huì)引發(fā)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)擔(dān)憂。隨著人民幣的升值和更加分散化,這些擔(dān)憂可能會(huì)消退,取而代之的是對(duì)金融穩(wěn)定的擔(dān)憂。
Libra’s success, then, is far from assured. But it could prove useful even if it flops, for it offers a blueprint for how Facebook itself could one day be governed. The Libra Association’s main task is to oversee the blockchain, ensuring, for instance, that Calibra does not enjoy privileged access to it. An equivalent Facebook Association, some observers have ventured, could be composed of representatives of users, advertisers, data-protection authorities and so on. Their job could be to oversee the “social graph”, another database, which lists all of Facebook’s users and the links between them—and to guarantee that Facebook users can post to another social network, and vice versa.
“天秤”的成功還遠(yuǎn)未確定。但即使失敗了,它也可能被證明是有用的,因?yàn)樗鼮镕acebook有朝一日如何管理自己提供了一幅藍(lán)圖?!疤斐印眳f(xié)會(huì)的主要任務(wù)是監(jiān)督區(qū)塊鏈,確保,例如,Calibra不享有特權(quán)訪問(wèn)它。一些觀察人士大膽提出,一個(gè)類似的Facebook協(xié)會(huì)可能由用戶、廣告商、數(shù)據(jù)保護(hù)機(jī)構(gòu)等方面的代表組成。他們的工作可能是監(jiān)督“社交圖”,另一個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù),它列出了Facebook的所有用戶和他們之間的鏈接,并確保Facebook用戶可以發(fā)布到另一個(gè)社交網(wǎng)絡(luò),反之亦然。
Calls for a Facebook constitution along these lines have grown louder as the social network’s influence on world affairs, from election-meddling in America to genocide in Myanmar, has become apparent. Mr Zuckerberg is no stranger to such thinking. In 2009 Facebook let users vote on big changes in its privacy policies but abandoned the experiment with global democracy a few years later. Last year Mr Zuckerberg announced that Facebook wanted to set up a “content review board” of independent experts—a kind of “Supreme Court”, in his words, which would make “the final judgment call on what should be acceptable speech”.
隨著Facebook對(duì)世界事務(wù)的影響越來(lái)越明顯,從干涉美國(guó)大選到緬甸種族滅絕問(wèn)題,要求制定符合這些原則的Facebook章程的呼聲越來(lái)越高。扎克伯格對(duì)這種想法并不陌生。2009年,F(xiàn)acebook允許用戶對(duì)其隱私政策的重大變化進(jìn)行投票,但幾年后就放棄了全球民主的實(shí)驗(yàn)。去年,扎克伯格宣布Facebook想要建立一個(gè)由獨(dú)立專家組成的“內(nèi)容審查委員會(huì)”——用他的話來(lái)說(shuō),這是一種“最高法院”,它將“對(duì)什么應(yīng)該是可接受的言論做出最終判斷”。
詞匯
Meddle/ ?干涉,管閑事
Genocide/種族滅絕
Asked whether Libra could serve as a model for Facebook, David Marcus, who is in charge of the project, replies that it marks “a coming of age, the moment we recognise that there are some things that we shouldn’t control—and a radical departure from the traditional way of operating things”. Perhaps. But checks and balances would almost certainly make Facebook less profitable. It would be ironic if a new digital currency marked the beginning of the end of Facebook’s money-minting days.
當(dāng)被問(wèn)及“天秤”能否成為Facebook的模范時(shí),負(fù)責(zé)該項(xiàng)目的大衛(wèi)?馬庫(kù)斯回答說(shuō),這標(biāo)志著“一個(gè)成熟的時(shí)刻,我們意識(shí)到有些事情是我們不應(yīng)該控制的——這與傳統(tǒng)的運(yùn)營(yíng)方式截然不同”。也許。但制衡幾乎肯定會(huì)降低Facebook的盈利能力。如果一種新的數(shù)字貨幣標(biāo)志著Facebook賺錢時(shí)代的終結(jié),那將是具有諷刺意味的。
詞匯
Ironic/諷刺的;反話的