From plague to penury

從瘟疫到貧窮

The pandemic is plunging millions back into extreme poverty

這一流行?。ㄐ鹿冢┦箶?shù)百萬人重新陷入極端貧困

It could take years for them to escape again

他們可能需要數(shù)年時間才能再次脫貧

Sep 26th 2020 | CáRDENAS, KAMPALA AND MUMBAI

FOR MORE?than a decade Suresh Aryal has flogged momos, steamed dumplings from Nepal, on the streets of New Delhi. On a good day the 32-year-old could take home as much as 6,000 rupees ($82). Then in March, as covid-19 spread, India shut down. Mr Aryal waited for things to improve for three months. When they did not, he returned to his home village in Nepal.

十多年來，Suresh Aryal一直在新德里街頭兜售來自尼泊爾的蒸餃”momo”。運氣好的話，32歲的他一天能拿到6000盧比(82美元)。今年3月，隨著新冠疫情的傳播，印度進(jìn)行了封鎖。Aryal先生等了三個月情況才有所好轉(zhuǎn)。當(dāng)印度還未取消封鎖期間，他回到了他在尼泊爾的家鄉(xiāng)。

詞匯

Flog/【英式英語|非正式用法】賣///flog sth to sb /flog sth off

India has since eased its lockdown. But Mr Aryal has no plans to return to the Indian capital. While people are still strapped for cash and reluctant to eat on crowded kerbsides, there is little point. Years spent surviving in a big city and sending money home to his family have left him with no savings. He has been getting by on loans from neighbours, but such generosity has its limits. Jobs are scarce in the village and Mr Aryal does not qualify for government support. “I don’t have a plan,” he says. “I’m going to have to hustle to feed my family.”

印度已經(jīng)放松了封鎖。但Aryal先生沒有返回印度首都的計劃。盡管人們?nèi)匀皇诸^拮據(jù)，但也不愿意在擁擠的街道上吃飯（個人理解為擁擠在路邊等著臨時工作），（因為這）不能帶來多少改變。他在大城市生活了幾年，還往家里寄錢，結(jié)果沒有積蓄。他一直靠鄰居的貸款度日，但這種慷慨也有其局限性。村里的工作機會很少，而且Aryal先生沒有資格得到政府的支持?！拔覜]有計劃，”他說?！?/span>但我需要努力工作才能養(yǎng)活我的家人?！?/span>

詞匯

strap for cash /資金不足

Hustle/努力干；奮力前行

Mr Aryal is not alone. According to estimates in June by the World Bank, national lockdowns and the ensuing economic catastrophe will push between 71m and 100m people into extreme poverty this year, defined as subsisting on less than $1.90 a day (at 2011 prices). Its predictions have worsened since the pandemic began, and suggest that three years of progress will be wiped out. Some countries could be even worse hit, depending on the scale of the recession (see chart). From 1990 until last year the number of extremely poor people fell from 2bn, or 36% of the world’s population, to 630m, or just 8%. Most of those left in poverty were in sub-Saharan Africa (see map) and in countries riven by conflict. By contrast, almost half the newly destitute will be in South Asia.

Aryal先生的情況并不止他一個人。根據(jù)世界銀行(World Bank) 6月份的估計，國家封鎖和隨之而來的經(jīng)濟(jì)災(zāi)難將使7100萬至1億人在今年陷入極端貧困，極端貧困的定義是每天生活費低于1.9美元(以2011年的價格計算)。自大流行開始以來，對于該數(shù)值的預(yù)測進(jìn)一步惡化，并預(yù)感近三年取得的成果將要被抹去。一些國家可能會受到更嚴(yán)重的打擊，這取決于衰退的規(guī)模(見圖表)。從1990年到去年，極端貧困人口的數(shù)量從20億(占世界人口的36%)下降到6.3億(僅占8%)。大多數(shù)貧困人口生活在撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)(見地圖)，以及因沖突而四分五裂的國家。相比之下，幾乎一半的新貧困人口將在南亞。

詞匯

Ensuing/因而發(fā)生的，隨后的

The United Nations is even gloomier. It defines people as poor if they do not have access to things like clean water, electricity, sufficient food and schools for their children. Working with researchers from Oxford University, it reckons the pandemic could cast 490m in 70 countries into poverty, reversing almost a decade of gains.

聯(lián)合國甚至更加悲觀。如果一個人不能獲得清潔的水、電、充足的食物和供子女上學(xué)的學(xué)校，那么他就是窮人。該組織與牛津大學(xué)的研究人員合作，估計新冠大流行將使70個國家的4.9億人陷入貧困，扭轉(zhuǎn)近10年的增長。

The economic crisis caused by the pandemic has exacerbated inequalities more sharply than previous recessions. The pandemic has left them with few fallback options. Those who lost formal jobs were unable to make a quick buck in the informal sector driving rickshaws, shining shoes or sorting rubbish, because the world had shut up shop. Lockdowns have frozen entire economies—black, white and grey. Since the disease has struck everywhere, relatives in richer countries may not be able to send extra cash home; remittances may drop by about a fifth this year, the biggest decline in recent history, according to the latest figures from the World Bank.

新冠疫情造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機比以往的衰退更嚴(yán)重地加劇了不平等。新冠疫情使他們沒有多少后備選擇。那些失去了正式工作的人無法在非正式的部門里開人力車、擦鞋或分類垃圾來快速賺錢，因為這個世界關(guān)閉了商店。封鎖凍結(jié)了整個經(jīng)濟(jì)——無論是黑色經(jīng)濟(jì)還是白色、灰色。由于這種疾病到處肆虐，富裕國家的親戚們可能無法寄額外的錢回家;世界銀行(World Bank)的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年匯款額可能下降約五分之一，為近年來最大降幅。

詞匯

Exacerbate/ 使加??；使惡化

Fallback/應(yīng)急計劃；退路

Rickshaw/人力車；黃包車

Remittance/ 匯款；僑匯

Worst affected have been the millions who escaped poverty by moving to bustling cities with running water, electricity and schools. Many have lost work and fled to more rural areas, where there are few jobs but at least living costs are cheaper. Official data in India suggest 10m people have relocated, but others reckon the total is five times more. In Kampala, Uganda’s capital, SafeBoda, a motorbike ride-hailing app, reckons that 40% of its drivers went back to the countryside under the lockdown. Returning to big cities holds little appeal until it is clear that economic activity is picking up and that further lockdowns are unlikely. With places such as Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital, announcing new restrictions in response to rising infections, it is not clear when that will be.

受影響最嚴(yán)重的是數(shù)百萬逃離貧困的人，他們搬到了有自來水、電和學(xué)校的繁華城市。許多人失去了工作，逃到更多的農(nóng)村地區(qū)，那里的工作機會很少，但至少生活成本更低。印度官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，有1000萬人已經(jīng)搬遷，但其他人估計總數(shù)是這一數(shù)字的5倍多。在烏干達(dá)的首都坎帕拉，一個叫車軟件SafeBoda估計，有40%的司機在封鎖后回到了鄉(xiāng)下。在經(jīng)濟(jì)活動明顯好轉(zhuǎn)、不太可能出現(xiàn)進(jìn)一步封鎖之前，重返大城市幾乎沒有什么吸引力。由于印度尼西亞首都雅加達(dá)等地宣布了新的限制措施，以應(yīng)對不斷上升的感染，目前還不清楚何時會執(zhí)行。

詞匯

ride-hailing/打車服務(wù)

The economic crisis is already turning into a food crisis. Peter Lutalo ran a thriving bar in Kiboga, in central Uganda. His family used to eat meat at the weekend and drink milky tea every day. But since the government ordered bars to close they can afford meat only once in three weeks and take their tea black. He is far from alone. The number of people unable to afford enough to eat could double as a result of the pandemic, says the UN’s World Food Programme. That would mean an additional 130m people this year suffering from the sort of debilitating hunger that harms adult health in the long term and can stunt children’s development.

經(jīng)濟(jì)危機已經(jīng)變成了糧食危機。Peter Lutalo在烏干達(dá)中部的基博加經(jīng)營一家生意興隆的酒吧。他的家人過去常常在周末吃肉，每天喝奶茶。但由于政府要求關(guān)閉酒吧，他們只能在三周內(nèi)吃一次肉，并改為喝紅茶。他不是唯一這樣做的人。聯(lián)合國世界糧食計劃署(World Food Programme)表示，無法負(fù)擔(dān)足夠食物的人數(shù)可能會因疫情而增加一倍。這意味著今年將有另外1.3億人遭受那種會使人虛弱的饑餓，這種饑餓會長期損害成年人的健康，并可能阻礙兒童的發(fā)育。

詞匯

Thriving/欣欣向榮的，興旺發(fā)達(dá)的

debilitating /使衰弱的

stunt /阻礙…的正常生長或發(fā)展

Nor have international organisations plugged the gap. Anna Obba is a teacher in the Bidibidi refugee camp in Uganda. When schools shut down, her income disappeared and her children’s education was disrupted. The World Food Programme cut food rations for refugees by 30% in April, citing a financial crunch. Since then the family has been living on one meal a day.

國際組織也沒有填補這一缺口。Anna Obba是烏干達(dá)Bidibidi難民營的一名教師。當(dāng)學(xué)校停課時，她的收入消失了，孩子的教育也中斷了。四月份，世界糧食計劃署以財政危機為由，將難民的糧食配給削減了30%。從那時起，這家人就每天只吃一頓飯。

詞匯

Refugee/難民

The disruption to education will have awful long-term consequences. Children whose families have fled cities will probably get a worse education in rural areas, if they get one at all. A survey by the UN’s World Health Organisation found that in August schools were fully open in only six of 39 African countries; only 12 more expect classrooms to reopen this month. Kenya has closed schools until 2021. As every year of education is reckoned to increase annual earnings by roughly 10%, the consequences for poor children are alarming.

教育的中斷將產(chǎn)生可怕的長期后果。如果他們有學(xué)校可以上的話，那些家庭逃離城市的孩子在農(nóng)村接受的教育可能會更差。聯(lián)合國世界衛(wèi)生組織的一項調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，八月份39個非洲國家中只有6個國家的學(xué)校完全開放;本月只有12所學(xué)校有望重新開放?？夏醽嗞P(guān)閉學(xué)校到2021年。據(jù)估計，受教育每年可以增加大約10%的年收入，這給貧困兒童帶來的后果令人擔(dān)憂。

The harm to health-care systems will be long-lasting, too. Clinics have been short of staff as medics have been unable to travel to work safely. People have been nervous about visiting them, too. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation says vaccination rates among children are dropping to levels last seen in the 1990s. Some of those jabs can be done once doctors are able to work properly again. But for infectious illnesses like measles, even a temporary pause may be lethal. Just 67% of the world’s children may get a crucial third dose of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (which is usually administered around the age of six months) this year. Last year 84% did.

（疫情）對醫(yī)療系統(tǒng)的危害也將是長期的。由于醫(yī)務(wù)人員無法安全前往工作地點，診所一直缺乏人手。人們（醫(yī)生）也對于面對患者而感到緊張。比爾和梅林達(dá)·蓋茨基金會表示，兒童的疫苗接種率已經(jīng)下降到上世紀(jì)90年代的水平。有些疫苗可以在醫(yī)生恢復(fù)正常工作后再注射。但是對于像麻疹這樣的傳染病來說，即使是短暫的停頓也可能是致命的。今年，世界上只有67%的兒童有機會接種破傷風(fēng)三合一疫苗至關(guān)重要的第三劑(通常在6個月左右接種)。去年有84%的孩子完成接種。

詞匯

Jab/（英，非正式）皮下注射（尤指接種疫苗），預(yù)防針

Measle/麻疹

diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis?vaccine/破傷風(fēng)三合一疫苗

Some hope that, as lockdowns lift, economies will start to grow again fast, as they often do after disasters. Large parts of Vietnam were destroyed during the war there, but the country bounced back rapidly thanks to economic reforms: between 1990 and 2015 real GDP?per person tripled, according to IMF?estimates. The portion of the population living on less than $1.90 a day has fallen from over 60% in the 1980s to less than 5% just before covid-19 struck.

一些人希望，隨著封鎖解除，經(jīng)濟(jì)將重新開始快速增長，就像災(zāi)難過后經(jīng)常發(fā)生的那樣。越南的大部分地區(qū)在戰(zhàn)爭中被摧毀，但由于經(jīng)濟(jì)改革，這個國家迅速反彈:根據(jù)國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的估計，1990年至2015年，越南實際人均GDP增長了兩倍。每天生活費低于1.90美元的人口比例已從上世紀(jì)80年代的60%以上下降到新冠爆發(fā)前的不到5%。

?

Poor countries are unlikely to see similar growth in the short term. For the first time in 25 years sub-Saharan Africa will fall into recession this year. The IMF?is forecasting a contraction of 3.2% in the region in 2020, and an underwhelming rebound to 3.4% growth next year. Among the G20 economies India’s shrank most in the spring; its GDP?is set to fall by about 4.5% in 2020. It may take some time to catch up. “Historically certainly, growth and poverty reduction have gone hand in hand,” says Carmen Reinhart, chief economist at the World Bank. “But there are enormous question-marks about how much growth we’re going to get.”

貧窮國家在短期內(nèi)不太可能看到類似的增長。撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)今年將出現(xiàn)25年來的首次衰退。國際貨幣基金組織預(yù)測，2020年該地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)將收縮3.2%，明年增長將反彈至3.4%。在20國集團(tuán)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，印度在春季經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮最為嚴(yán)重;其GDP在2020年將下降4.5%?？赡苄枰欢螘r間才能趕上。世界銀行首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Carmen Reinhart說:“從歷史上看，增長和減貧是密不可分的，”“但是我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)能增長多少一直是個大大的問題”。

There are some signs of improvement. According to recent phone surveys by the World Bank in Ethiopia, 87% of respondents said they had had at least an hour’s work in the week before the interview, though that is still below pre-pandemic levels. Employment levels in Nigeria are almost back to their pre-pandemic level.

有一些改善的跡象。世界銀行(World Bank)最近在埃塞俄比亞進(jìn)行的電話調(diào)查顯示，87%的受訪者說，他們在采訪前一周至少工作了一個小時，不過這仍低于疫情前的水平。尼日利亞的就業(yè)水平幾乎回到了大流行前的水平。

?

But it seems likely that a return to growth will be fitful and uneven. People in poor countries are plainly desperate to return to work. Most are young, and so less vulnerable to covid-19. The World Economic Forum estimates that just 3% of Africans are over 65 years old, whereas over 40% are under 15. Hunger could kill them before the virus does.

但恢復(fù)增長的過程似乎是斷斷續(xù)續(xù)、不平衡的。貧窮國家的人們顯然非常渴望重返工作崗位。大多數(shù)是年輕人，因此不易感染新冠。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇估計只有3%的非洲人超過65歲，而超過40%的人在15歲以下。饑餓可能在病毒之前殺死它們。

詞匯

?Fitful/斷斷續(xù)續(xù)的