文章來源：《經(jīng)濟學人》Feb 18th 2023 期 Leaders 欄目 Green energy

Amid the misery of war in Ukraine and the global energy crisis, there is a glimmer of good news. The green transition has speeded up. True, a spike in natural-gas prices fuelled greater demand for coal, the dirtiest of fossil fuels. But it also led consumers to use energy more efficiently. And, more significantly, it spurred investment in renewables around the world. Last year global capital spending on wind and solar assets was greater than investment in new and existing oil and gas wells for the first time. Governments in America and Europe are spending billions on subsidies for clean tech over the next decade; China is offering juicy incentives, too.

在烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭和全球能源危機的痛苦之中，有一個好消息。綠色轉型加快了。誠然，天然氣價格的飆升刺激了對煤炭這種污染最嚴重的化石燃料的更大需求。但它也促使消費者更有效地使用能源。更重要的是，它刺激了世界各地對可再生能源的投資。去年，全球對風能和太陽能資產的投資首次超過了對新建和現(xiàn)有油氣井的投資。未來十年，美國和歐洲政府將花費數(shù)十億美元補貼清潔技術; 中國也將提供豐厚的激勵措施。

As a happy consequence, the green transition may have accelerated by five to ten years. Yet the remarkable thing is that the transition could have proceeded at a faster pace still. Even as governments have loosened the purse-strings, they have begun to blunt the incentives to invest. Sharpening them again will be vital, as on today’s trajectory the world is unlikely to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050, the milestone for limiting temperature rises to 1.5°C above pre-industrial averages by 2100.

令人高興的結果是，綠色轉型可能加快了5到10年。然而，值得注意的是，這種轉變本可以以更快的速度進行。即使政府已經(jīng)放松了錢袋，他們也已經(jīng)開始削弱投資動機。再次提高投資動力將至關重要，因為按照目前的發(fā)展軌跡，世界不太可能在2050年實現(xiàn)凈零碳排放，即到2100年將氣溫上升限制在比工業(yè)化前平均水平高1.5°C的里程碑。

One problem is obtaining permits. Endless delays stop firms that want to invest from breaking ground. This has long been an obstacle to new projects in America and Europe; the worrying thing is that some places are going backwards. Denmark is a star in offshore wind. But on February 6th it stopped processing all applications for such projects, after a dawning realisation that it may be in breach of EU law. The gains from cutting red tape are large. The International Energy Agency, an official forecaster, estimates that renewables generation would rise by an extra 25% by 2027 if bureaucratic and financing barriers were removed.

其中一個問題是獲得許可。無休止的拖延阻止了想要投資的公司行動。長期以來，這一直是美國和歐洲新項目的障礙; 令人擔憂的是，一些地方正在倒退。丹麥是海上風能領域的明星。但在2月6日，在意識到這可能違反歐盟法律后，丹麥停止處理所有此類項目的申請。減少繁文縟節(jié)的好處是巨大的。官方預測機構國際能源機構估計，如果消除官僚主義和融資障礙，到2027年可再生能源發(fā)電量將再增加25%。

The bigger problem is that some renewables providers are now rethinking their investments altogether, because energy projects are becoming less attractive. Price caps and various taxes, together with rising costs, are putting them off.

更大的問題是，一些可再生能源供應商現(xiàn)在正在重新考慮他們的投資，因為能源項目的吸引力正在下降。價格上限和各種各樣的稅收，再加上不斷上漲的成本，都讓他們望而卻步。

Between January 2021 and April 2022 logistical hiccups, post-lockdown rebounds and war-induced disruptions together buoyed the prices of everything from shipping to industrial metals, which in turn raised the prices of solar modules and turbines. Higher interest rates have made money dearer—a headache for builders of green plants, which are much hungrier for capital than their fossil-fuel-fired counterparts.

在2021年1月至2022年4月期間，物流問題、封鎖后的反彈以及戰(zhàn)爭引起的中斷共同推高了從航運到工業(yè)金屬的各種商品的價格，這反過來又推高了太陽能組件以及渦輪機的價格。高利率使得資金更加昂貴，這對于綠色發(fā)電廠的建造者來說是一個頭疼的問題，因為他們比化石燃料發(fā)電廠更需要資金。

Such costs would be manageable if they could be passed on. But governments are increasingly micromanaging power markets to keep prices low, or to raise revenue of their own. The EU has imposed a price cap on renewable generators, and many European countries have implemented a windfall tax on their profits. Around the world, auctions for renewables contracts are being designed to keep electricity cheap—so cheap that generators will struggle to make money. That leads them to sell electricity on the spot market instead, which is riskier and less appealing to investors. Some tenders entice developers to compete over how much they are willing to pay to run projects, a system known as “negative bidding”. This may bloat costs yet more.

如果這些成本可以轉嫁，那么它們將是可控的。但各國政府正越來越多地對電力市場進行微觀管理，以保持低價，或提高自己的收入。歐盟已經(jīng)對可再生能源發(fā)電商設定了價格上限，許多歐洲國家已經(jīng)對其利潤征收暴利稅。在世界范圍內，可再生能源合同的拍賣旨在保持電力價格低廉，便宜到發(fā)電商將很難賺錢。這導致他們轉而在現(xiàn)貨市場上出售電力，而現(xiàn)貨市場風險更大，對投資者的吸引力也更低。一些招標活動誘使開發(fā)商競爭他們愿意支付多少錢來運營項目，這種系統(tǒng)被稱為“負面投標”。這可能導致成本進一步上升。

The result has been squeezed profits. The four largest Western turbine-makers are losing money. In January Orsted, the world’s largest offshore-wind developer, took a $365m charge on a big American project; on February 8th the renewables arm of Equinor, Norway’s state-owned energy giant, reported a widening loss for the fourth quarter of 2022—despite an 81% jump in revenue compared with the same period in 2021. That week Duke Energy and Dominion Energy, two American firms, also booked charges of $1.3bn and $1.5bn, respectively, on chunks of their wind and solar portfolios.

其結果是利潤受到擠壓。西方四大渦輪機制造商正在虧損。今年1月，世界最大的海上風能開發(fā)商Orsted在美國的一個大型項目上支出了3.65億美元; 2月8日，挪威國有能源巨頭Equinor的可再生能源部門報告稱，盡管收入比2021年同期增長了81%，但2022年第四季度的虧損仍在不斷擴大。那一周，兩家美國公司Duke Energy 和Dominion Energy也分別在其風能和太陽能投資組合中計提了13億美元和15億美元的減值支出。

This is clogging up project pipelines. From America to Asia, wind developers are trying to revise their bids or renegotiate financing deals, delaying construction. Some are withdrawing from big tenders, decrying projects as “uninvestible”. In America many solar projects are stalled, and in Europe fewer agreements to buy the power they generate are being signed.

這阻塞了項目“管道”。從美國到亞洲，風能開發(fā)商正試圖修改他們的投標或重新談判融資協(xié)議，從而推遲了建設。一些公司正在退出大型招標，譴責項目“不可投資”。在美國，許多太陽能項目都停滯不前，而在歐洲，簽署購買太陽能發(fā)電的協(xié)議也越來越少。

Governments are keen to keep power prices low today, but that may be a false economy if it reduces the renewables spending needed for tomorrow. And as more wind and solar capacity is built, developers will probably need to withstand even bigger cost increases: a shortage of copper, say, would push up the prices of cables and wires, and a scarcity of trained workers needed to maintain and operate turbines would boost wages.

政府現(xiàn)在熱衷于保持低電價，但如果這減少了未來所需的可再生能源支出，這可能是一種錯誤的節(jié)約。隨著越來越多的風能和太陽能發(fā)電能力的建立，開發(fā)商可能需要承受更大的成本增長: 比如銅的短缺將推高電纜和電線的價格，而維護和操作渦輪機所需的訓練有素的工人的短缺將提高工資。

All this means that, if investing is to stay attractive, green power will need to be sold at higher prices than governments would like. If the energy transition is to happen fast, there must not be a race to the bottom.

所有這些都意味著，如果投資要保持吸引力，綠色能源的售價必須高于政府的預期。如果要讓能源轉型迅速發(fā)生，就不能出現(xiàn)逐底競爭。