Container shipping 集裝運輸

All at sea

Long delays and high costs will not abate soon

第一段：

Father christmas?and the global container-shipping industry have similar objectives, though the timescales differ. Santa’s world-spanning logistics operation aims to deliver presents all in one night. Shipping firms step theirs up around September to ensure that gifts and other seasonal goods join a vast global supply chain.?But a system that usually operates unnoticed (and unremarked upon) is still in chaos.?For months a covid-induced maelstrom of delays and sky-high shipping rates has left goods lingering at sea and shop shelves bare around the world. Politicians insist that the snarls will disappear. But?survey the horizon?and there is little sign of smoother sailing.

圣誕老人和全球集裝箱航運業(yè)有著相似的目標(biāo)，不過時間段不同。圣誕老人的全球物流業(yè)務(wù)旨在在一個晚上把禮物送完。船運公司在9月左右加快了他們的步伐，以確保禮物和其他季節(jié)性商品加入到龐大的全球供應(yīng)鏈中。但是，這樣一個通常未被察覺(也不被注意)的系統(tǒng)仍然處于混亂之中。幾個月來，新冠肺炎引發(fā)的延誤和極高的運費導(dǎo)致貨物滯留在海上，而世界各地的商店貨架空空如也。政客們堅持認(rèn)為這種混亂將會消失。但放眼未來，幾乎沒有跡象表明航行會更加順利。

第二段：

The pandemic has hit shipping firms’ operations along the supply chain.?Labour shortages?have been worsened by workers forced to isolate. XX’s zero-tolerance measures have?closed port terminals?after the discovery of one or two covid-19 cases. The spread there of the new Omicron variant?makes more closures likely. But the most significant impact of the pandemic has been to ignite demand for goods from self-isolating shoppers, particularly Americans eager to buy Chinese products using stimulus money. The value of merchandise goods exported from China to America was 5% greater in the first six months of 2021 compared with 2019, before the pandemic. In September and October it was 19% higher than two years earlier.

新冠肺炎疫情對航運公司的供應(yīng)鏈業(yè)務(wù)造成了沖擊。由于工人被迫被隔離，勞動力短缺問題更加嚴(yán)重。在發(fā)現(xiàn)1-2例新冠肺炎病例后，XX采取了零容忍措施，關(guān)閉了港口碼頭。新的奧密克戎變種在那里的傳播會讓更多的關(guān)閉成為可能。但疫情最顯著的影響是刺激了自我隔離的購物者對商品的需求，尤其是渴望用刺激支票購買中國產(chǎn)品的美國人。2021年前6個月，中國出口到美國的商品價值比2019年疫情前增加了5%。9月和10月的商品出口價值比兩年前高出19%。

第三段：

The result is that shipping rates are not?coming back to earth. A set of?benchmark spot rates?from Freightos, a digital freight marketplace, between China and America’s west coast?are below a recent peak. But at around $15,000 per FEU (40-foot equivalent unit), they are ten times pre-pandemic levels (see chart 1).?The outsize appetite for goods in America has had a?knock-on effect?elsewhere. A shortage of vessels, drawn by high rates to the trans pacific routes, has pushed the cost of sending boxes between China and Europe to record levels. That raises costs for businesses that rely on shipping firms. Small items such as smartphones or sports shoes can be packed by the tens of thousands into a container. But a rough estimate of the average value of goods in a box travelling between China and America is around $50,000. Another $15,000 makes a significant difference.

其結(jié)果是航運價格無法回到現(xiàn)實。數(shù)字貨運市場Freightos的一組中國和美國西海岸之間的基準(zhǔn)現(xiàn)貨價格低于最近的峰值。但在每FEU(相當(dāng)于40英尺的單位)1.5萬美元左右，是疫情前水平的10倍(見表1)。美國對商品的巨大需求已經(jīng)在其他地方產(chǎn)生了連鎖反應(yīng)。跨太平洋航線的高運價導(dǎo)致船只短缺，這使得中國和歐洲之間的集裝箱運輸成本達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的水平。這增加了依賴航運公司的企業(yè)的成本。智能手機(jī)或運動鞋等小物件，一個集裝箱能裝數(shù)萬件。但據(jù)粗略估計，在中美之間運輸?shù)囊幌湄浳锏钠骄鶅r值約為5萬美元。再多15000美元就會有很大的不同。

第四段：

To eye-watering costs add lengthy delays.?Ports, unused to such volumes of traffic, face long queues of ships waiting weeks to unload. In a system already stretched to the limit by lack of lorry drivers and warehouse space, up to 15% of the global container fleet is currently sitting at anchor outside the world’s ports.

除了高昂的成本外，還有漫長的延誤。不習(xí)慣如此大流量的港口，面臨著等待了數(shù)周要卸貨的拍著長隊的船只。由于缺乏卡車司機(jī)和倉庫空間，集裝箱運輸系統(tǒng)已經(jīng)達(dá)到了極限，而目前全球高達(dá)15%的集裝箱船隊停泊在世界各地的港口外。

第五段：

apparent signs of improvement are illusory. A widely watched indicator, the armada waiting to offload goods at the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, America’s main entry points for Chinese imports, now numbers some 30-40 vessels, down from 70-80 in October. However, that is mostly because a recent change to the queuing system means that ships are now asked to wait far out at sea (some even linger off the Chinese coast). The real queue is over 100 ships.

明顯的改善跡象是假的。一個廣受關(guān)注的指標(biāo)是，等待在洛杉磯和長灘這兩個美國主要的中國進(jìn)口商品的入境口岸，卸貨的艦隊數(shù)量從10月份的70-80艘下降到現(xiàn)在的30-40艘。然而，這主要是因為最近排隊制度的改變，意味著船只現(xiàn)在被要求在遙遠(yuǎn)的海上等待(有些甚至在中國海岸逗留)。真正的排隊隊列有100多艘船。

第六段：

Relief from this congestion does not look imminent, and the longer it builds the longer it will take to unwind. Most pundits?see little hope of improvement?until after Chinese new year in February. Disruptions may last all of 2022. Though rates may have hit a peak, they are unlikely to fall much in the next six months and are set to remain elevated into 2023, thinks Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime, a consultancy. Only then will new vessels ordered in response to high rates start to hit the waves.

緩解這種擁堵似乎并不迫在眉睫，而且隊伍越長，解除擁堵所需的時間也就越長。大多數(shù)專家認(rèn)為，在2月份中國農(nóng)歷新年之前，情況幾乎沒有好轉(zhuǎn)的希望。供應(yīng)中斷可能會持續(xù)整個2022年。咨詢公司Vespucci Maritime的Lars Jensen認(rèn)為，盡管運費可能已經(jīng)達(dá)到峰值，但在未來6個月內(nèi)不太可能大幅下降，而且到2023年仍將保持高位。只有到那時，為應(yīng)對高運費而訂購的新船才會開始“乘風(fēng)破浪”。

第七段：

Even if spot rates have peaked most customers will face higher bills in 2022. The long-term contracts that govern the bulk of container traffic are currently far lower than spot rates—perhaps $2,500-3,000 per FEU between China and America. But as David Kerstens of Jefferies, a bank, points out, spot rates inform contract rates. In 2021 two-thirds of the contracts signed by Maersk, the world’s biggest container-shipping firm, which controls a fifth of the global market, have been long-term ones. As Maersk’s contracts and those of its rivals roll over, the rates could double. And with customers more concerned about securing scarce capacity than haggling over price, some are signing contracts for two years rather than one.

如果現(xiàn)貨價格已經(jīng)達(dá)到峰值，大多數(shù)客戶也將在2022年面臨更高額的賬單?？刂拼蟛糠旨b箱運輸?shù)拈L期合同目前遠(yuǎn)低于現(xiàn)貨價格，中國和美國之間每FEU大約2500-3000美元。但是Jefferies銀行的David Kerstens指出，即期利率會影響合同利率。Maersk是世界上最大的集裝箱運輸公司，控制著全球五分之一的市場份額。2021年，該公司簽署的合同中有三分之二都是長期合同。隨著Maersk及其競爭對手的合同到期，費率可能會翻倍。由于客戶更關(guān)心的是確保稀缺的產(chǎn)能，而不是討價還價，一些客戶簽的合同是兩年而不是一年。

第八段：

Fears?that a trend for “near-shoring” might hit demand?seem unwarranted for now. Soren Skou, boss of Maersk, sees little evidence of it so far. Many firms that source supplies from China are having doubts about relying on one country. A “China plus one” policy of adding a supplier in another part of Asia, such as Vietnam or Thailand, needs more ships to transport these goods directly to America or to giant Chinese hub ports for their onward trip.

對“近岸外包”趨勢可能打擊需求的擔(dān)憂目前看來是沒有根據(jù)的。Maersk的老板Soren Skou到目前為止還沒看到這方面的證據(jù)。許多從中國采購產(chǎn)品的公司都在懷疑是否要依賴一個國家?！爸袊右弧钡恼呤窃趤喼薜牧硪粋€地方增加一個供應(yīng)商，比如越南或泰國，這就需要更多的船只將這些貨物直接運往美國或中國的大型樞紐港口，以繼續(xù)向前運輸。

第九段：

The industry’s response to the crunch reflects changes to its structure that predate covid-19. In the words of Rahul Kapoor of the?Journal of Commerce, a sectoral must-read, “The era of cheap shipping is behind us.” Shifting goods around the world has been inexpensive because the response to high rates has historically been a frenzy of orders. That, in turn, has led to a flood of vessels that arrive just as economic conditions worsen and trade slows.

該行業(yè)對危機(jī)的反應(yīng)反映了其在covid-19之前的結(jié)構(gòu)變化。用行業(yè)必讀刊物《商業(yè)雜志》的Rahul Kapoor的話來說:“廉價航運的時代已經(jīng)過去?！?在世界各地運輸商品一直不貴，因為對高利率的反應(yīng)歷來是訂單狂潮。這反過來又導(dǎo)致在經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況惡化、貿(mào)易放緩之際，大批船只涌入。

第十段：

But bloody price wars over market share may be gone for good. Since 2016, when a previous ship-ordering binge collided with slowing trade, collapsing rates and big losses, the industry has consolidated—20 big firms have become seven bigger ones in three global alliances. This has helped them manage capacity more ruthlessly. As a result, the cyclical industry may suffer shallower and shorter downturns, says Parash Jain of HSBC, another bank.

但圍繞市場份額的血腥價格戰(zhàn)可能一去不復(fù)返了。自2016年以來，當(dāng)之前的訂船熱潮與“貿(mào)易放緩、價格暴跌和巨額虧損”相沖突時，該行業(yè)已經(jīng)整合，在三個全球聯(lián)盟中，20家大公司變成了7家更大的公司。這幫助他們更加無情地管理產(chǎn)能。匯豐銀行的Parash Jain說，其結(jié)果是周期性行業(yè)可能會遭受較淺層且較短的衰退。

第十一段：

The strange result of the pandemic is that the industry is awash with cash. Simon Heaney of Drewry, a consultancy, says that profits could reach $200bn in 2021 and $150bn in 2022, an unimaginable bonanza beside the cumulative total of around $110bn for the previous 20 years. As well as returning cash to shareholders, Maersk may acquire more firms in e-commerce fulfilment and air-freight as part of its effort to build an end-to-end logistics business that ferries goods by sea, land and air, taking on DHL and FedEx. Other big container-shipping companies such as China’s COSCO and France’s CMA-CGM are doing the same.

疫情導(dǎo)致的奇怪結(jié)果是，該行業(yè)現(xiàn)金充裕。咨詢公司Drewry的Simon Heaney表示，2021年利潤可能達(dá)到2000億美元，2022年達(dá)到1500億美元，與此前20年累計約1100億美元的利潤相比，這是一筆難以想象的財富。除了向股東返還現(xiàn)金外，Maersk可能會收購更多的電商配送以及航空貨運公司，作為其努力建立端到端物流業(yè)務(wù)的一部分，通過海運、陸運和空運運送貨物，與DHL和FedEx競爭。其他大型集裝箱運輸公司，如中國遠(yuǎn)洋和法國CMA-CGM也在做同樣的事情。

第十二段：

The big question is how much new capacity is?in the offing. As world trade boomed in the years before the financial crisis of 2007-09, order books were roughly equivalent to 60% of the existing fleet. They now stand at a little over 20%. Restraint is due in part to uncertainty over the technology needed to make vessels which have a 25-year lifespan compliant with tougher carbon-emissions rules that the industry is expecting. Still, capital discipline may have its limits. Orders have begun to swell again (see chart 2). But it will take two to three years before ships ordered today start rolling down slipways. The era of pricey shipping could well last for another Christmas or two.?

最大的問題是，未來會有多少新產(chǎn)能。在2007-2009年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)前的幾年里，世界貿(mào)易蓬勃發(fā)展，訂單量大約相當(dāng)于現(xiàn)有船只的60%?，F(xiàn)在的比例略高于20%。限制的部分原因是，制造“符合行業(yè)預(yù)期的更嚴(yán)格的碳排放規(guī)定”的“使用壽命為25年”的船舶所需的技術(shù)不確定。不過，資本紀(jì)律可能有其局限性。訂單已經(jīng)開始再次上漲(見圖2)。但要想讓今天訂購的船只從滑臺上放下來，還需要兩到三年的時間。價格昂貴的運輸時代很可能會再持續(xù)一兩個圣誕節(jié)。