TED演講者：Sue Natali / 蘇·納塔利

演講標(biāo)題：How ancient Arctic carbon threatens everyone on the planet / 遠(yuǎn)古時(shí)期的碳如何威脅到地球上的每個(gè)人

內(nèi)容概要：What will happen to the planet if climate change melts what's left of Arctic permafrost? Shedding light on this overlooked threat, Arctic geologist Sue Natali reveals the true danger of heating up the iciest place on the planet: the release of ancient carbon that will dramatically worsen our climate problems. In this urgent talk, she introduces a new initiative, Permafrost Pathways, and their work to measure permafrost carbon emissions, fuse Indigenous solutions with modern technologies and protect the rights of Arctic residents. (This ambitious plan is a part of the Audacious Project, TED's initiative to inspire and fund global change.)

如果氣候變化融化了北極剩余的永久凍土，地球?qū)?huì)發(fā)生什么？為了揭示這個(gè)被忽視的威脅，北極地質(zhì)學(xué)家蘇·納塔利揭示了地球上最冷的地方變熱所帶來(lái)的危險(xiǎn)：遠(yuǎn)古碳的釋放會(huì)使氣候問(wèn)題更加嚴(yán)峻。在這一緊迫問(wèn)題演說(shuō)中，她介紹了一個(gè)新方案，“永久凍土行動(dòng)計(jì)劃”，并敘述了她們測(cè)量永久凍土碳排放，將土著解決方案與現(xiàn)代技術(shù)相結(jié)合，保護(hù)北極居民的權(quán)利的工作。（這一宏大的計(jì)劃是Audacious項(xiàng)目的組成部分，是TED鼓勵(lì)并資助全球變革的倡議。）

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【1】So whenever I tell people I'm an Arctic scientist, the first thing that they always ask me is: How cold is it up there?

每當(dāng)我說(shuō)我是研究 北極地區(qū)的科學(xué)家時(shí), 人們一開(kāi)口就會(huì)問(wèn)我:

【2】And yeah, the Arctic can get pretty cold.

確實(shí),北極很冷。

【3】Trust me when I tell you that working outside at -40 degrees is really, really challenging.

我不得不說(shuō), 在零下四十度的室外工作 確實(shí)是艱巨的挑戰(zhàn)。

【4】But in the summer of 2019, it was anything but cold.

但在2019年的夏季, 北極地區(qū)一點(diǎn)也不冷。

【5】So that summer I was working with my research team in Alaska's Yukon Kuskokwim Delta on the traditional lands of the Yup'ik and Cup'ik people.

那個(gè)夏天我和我的研究團(tuán)隊(duì)在阿拉斯加育空地區(qū)的 卡斯克奎姆河三角洲從事研究。 那里曾是尤皮克人（Yup’ik） 和庫(kù)普克人（Cup’ik）的地盤。

【6】And we were up there hauling hundreds of pounds of equipment across the tundra in the middle of a record-breaking heatwave.

當(dāng)我們攜帶著數(shù)百磅重的儀器 穿行在那里的苔原地帶時(shí), 我們遇到了空前的熱浪。

【7】It was 90 degrees Fahrenheit.

氣溫達(dá)到90華氏度 （約32.2攝氏度）。

【8】There was no breeze, nowhere to go for a shade and seemingly endless miles of tundra as far as my eyes could see.

那里沒(méi)有風(fēng), 也沒(méi)有任何蔭蔽之處, 在我視野里的 是一望無(wú)際的苔原。

【9】To make matters worse, the land had drastically changed since we had been here just one year before.

更糟的是, 我們一年前才來(lái)過(guò)這里, 如今大地已經(jīng)有了巨大變化。

【10】The ground was sinking and it was cracking.

地面在沉降和破裂。

【11】In places, it was literally collapsing beneath my feet.

在有些地方, 我腳下的土地甚至在崩解。

【12】I've been working in the Arctic for more than a decade, and I had never seen changes happening this rapidly ever before.

我在北極區(qū)域研究超過(guò)十年, 我以前從未見(jiàn)過(guò)如此迅速的改變。

【13】The changes we saw were remarkable, and they were also really concerning.

這些改變十分異常, 也著實(shí)令人憂心。

【14】But we were there to measure changes that we couldn't see.

但我們?nèi)ツ抢锸菫榱藴y(cè)量 我們無(wú)法感知的改變。

【15】We were there to fill a major gap in our understanding of how the changing Arctic is impacting the Earth's climate.

我們要填補(bǔ)我們 認(rèn)知上的不足, 了解北極的改變 對(duì)地球氣候的影響。

【16】So we were installing what's called an "eddy covariance tower,"

所以我們安裝了一個(gè)被稱為 “渦度協(xié)方差塔”的裝置,

【17】which is a series of instruments that measures the exchange of greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide and methane, between the land and the atmosphere.

這種裝置由多種儀器構(gòu)成, 用于測(cè)量地面與大氣 溫室氣體的交換, 例如二氧化碳和甲烷。

【18】It's essentially like measuring the Earth's breath.

這就像是在測(cè)量地球的呼吸。

【19】And so the reason the land around us was collapsing is because the once permanently frozen ground called permafrost was starting to thaw.

我們周圍的土地之所以崩塌 是因?yàn)樵?jīng)的永久凍土, 即長(zhǎng)期冰凍的土地, 正在不斷融化。

【20】And once it thaws, that collapsing ground can drastically alter the vast expanse of the Arctic's tundra and boreal forest, and it can also threaten the homes and lifeways of Arctic residents.

一旦永久凍土開(kāi)始融化, 坍塌的土地會(huì)徹底改變 北極地區(qū)大片的 苔原和北部針葉林, 這也威脅著北極地區(qū)居民的 家園和生活方式。

【21】Just imagine if the ground beneath your home suddenly started to sink.

試著想象你家下面的土地 突然開(kāi)始下沉。

【22】That's what's happening across the Arctic.

這就是北極地區(qū) 正在經(jīng)歷的事情。

【23】But thawing permafrost also threatens everyone on the planet because it stores a massive amount of ancient frozen carbon.

永久凍土的融化 也威脅著地球上的每個(gè)人, 因?yàn)橛谰脙鐾练獯嬷?大量被冰封的遠(yuǎn)古碳。

【24】And when that carbon thaws, it can be released into the atmosphere as greenhouse gases, leading to more warming and more thaw.

當(dāng)冰封的碳融化時(shí), 它作為溫室氣體 釋放到大氣中, 促使氣候更加溫暖 和更多永久凍土融化。

【25】So let me place the magnitude of this problem in perspective for you.

讓我?guī)銈冋_認(rèn)識(shí) 這個(gè)問(wèn)題的嚴(yán)重性。

【26】By the end of this century, greenhouse gas emissions from thawing permafrost may be on par with some of the world's leading greenhouse-gas-emitting nations,

在本世紀(jì)末, 由永久凍土融化 釋放的溫室氣體 會(huì)與一些主要國(guó)家的 溫室氣體排放量相當(dāng),

【27】perhaps as large as or larger than emissions from the United States, the second-largest greenhouse-gas-emitting country in the world.

或許和美國(guó)的排放量相當(dāng), 也許更多, 美國(guó)目前是世界第二大 溫室氣體排放國(guó)。

【28】And you know, I want to point out, this is not a new phenomena.

我想強(qiáng)調(diào)的是, 這不是一個(gè)新現(xiàn)象。

【29】Arctic residents and scientists have been observing permafrost thaw now for decades.

北極地區(qū)的居民和科學(xué)家們 已經(jīng)觀測(cè)了數(shù)十年的永久凍土融化。

【30】But the scale of the research hasn't been sufficient to meet this enormous challenge.

但他們的研究規(guī)模還不足以 應(yīng)對(duì)這一巨大挑戰(zhàn)。

【31】Because no one country is directly responsible for permafrost thaw, no single nation has taken responsibility for fully monitoring and tracking its impact across the Arctic.

因?yàn)闆](méi)有國(guó)家對(duì)永久凍土融化 負(fù)有直接責(zé)任, 沒(méi)有哪個(gè)國(guó)家能夠 獨(dú)自承擔(dān)測(cè)量和追蹤 永久凍土融化 對(duì)北極的影響的責(zé)任。

【32】And this is not a case where ignorance is bliss, because what doesn't get measured doesn't get accounted for.

這里根本不存在 無(wú)知是福這一說(shuō)法, 因?yàn)槲覀儾粫?huì)考慮 我們沒(méi)有測(cè)量的數(shù)據(jù)。

【33】Because we can't put a precise number on permafrost emissions, policymakers are essentially excluding them, setting global emissions targets that are wholly insufficient to protect us from catastrophic climate change.

因?yàn)槲覀儫o(wú)法對(duì)凍土碳排放 進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確測(cè)量, 政策制定者就直接忽略它, 制定無(wú)法讓我們免于災(zāi)難性 氣候變化的目標(biāo)。

【34】Ignoring permafrost is essentially like leaving a major greenhouse-gas-emitting country, like the United States, out of global climate negotiations, which is not a good idea.

忽視永久凍土就像遺漏了 一個(gè)溫室氣體排放大國(guó), 就像美國(guó)對(duì)全球氣候磋商 置之不理, 這并不明智。

【35】What we need to know is where permafrost is thawing across the Arctic and how fast, what that means in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and how that will impact our climate in 10, 50 or 100 years from now.

我們需要知道 北極哪里的永久凍土正在融化 和正以多快的速度融化, 這兩個(gè)問(wèn)題對(duì)溫室氣體排放 有什么影響 及對(duì)未來(lái)10、50、100年的氣候 產(chǎn)生什么影響。

【36】Answering these questions requires a massive and integrated effort at a scale that matches the enormity of this problem.

回答這一問(wèn)題需要進(jìn)行 大規(guī)模、系統(tǒng)性的工作, 與這一問(wèn)題的嚴(yán)重性相匹配。

【37】Thankfully, we have a plan.

幸運(yùn)的是, 我們有一個(gè)方案。

【38】Through an ambitious new initiative called Permafrost Pathways, we've formed a coalition of Arctic residents and scientists,

通過(guò)一個(gè)宏大的新方案 “永久凍土行動(dòng)計(jì)劃”, 我們與北極地區(qū)的居民、 科學(xué)家、當(dāng)?shù)氐挠凶R(shí)之士

【39】Indigenous knowledge-holders and Arctic and climate policy influencers to tackle this problem with the urgency it deserves.

以及在北極和氣候政策議題上 有影響力的人物 形成聯(lián)盟來(lái)解決這一急迫問(wèn)題。

【40】Recognizing that we cannot continue on our current climate trajectory, we've brought this team together to think big and to act boldly and to work across boundaries to take us on a new pathway forward.

我們意識(shí)到我們 不能維持現(xiàn)有的氣候趨勢(shì)。 我們帶領(lǐng)這個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)一起 開(kāi)闊思維、大膽行動(dòng), 跨越界限合作, 以使我們?cè)谛碌牡缆飞锨斑M(jìn)。

【41】So to get started, the first thing that we need to do is to actually measure greenhouse gas emissions across the entire Arctic.

開(kāi)始時(shí), 我們的首要任務(wù)是 準(zhǔn)確測(cè)量整個(gè)北極地區(qū) 溫室氣體的排放。

【42】Currently there are only a handful of monitoring towers across the Arctic that run year round and that measure both important greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane.

北極地區(qū)當(dāng)前全年工作的 測(cè)量塔屈指可數(shù), 它們測(cè)量?jī)煞N重要的溫室氣體: 二氧化碳和甲烷。

【43】So we're working with a team of international scientific experts to strategically identify and fill these monitoring gaps by installing new equipment across the Arctic in remote locations where monitoring currently doesn't exist.

所以我們與多國(guó)科學(xué)家合作, 有策略地識(shí)別和填補(bǔ) 這些測(cè)量空白區(qū)域, 在北極未被測(cè)量的偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū) 安裝新型設(shè)備。

【44】We believe that by installing just 10 new monitoring sites, we can drastically improve our estimates of permafrost emissions, which will remove a major barrier to their incorporation into the global climate policy.

我們相信 10 個(gè) 新的測(cè)量地點(diǎn) 能大幅度提升我們估測(cè) 凍土釋放溫室氣體量的準(zhǔn)確性, 這將消除將其納入 全球氣候政策范疇的障礙。

【45】And we're coupling this on-the-ground monitoring with high-resolution satellite observations and advanced computer modeling so that we can track the changing Arctic in near real-time and accurately project permafrost emissions into the future.

我們把地面測(cè)量 與高清衛(wèi)星觀測(cè)相結(jié)合 并使用先進(jìn)的計(jì)算機(jī)建模, 因而我們能接近實(shí)時(shí)地 追蹤北極的變化 并準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)永久凍土 在未來(lái)的排放量。

【46】But state-of-the-art science just isn't enough.

不過(guò)現(xiàn)有的科學(xué) 還有待提高。

【47】We need to make sure that permafrost emissions are counted when setting global emissions targets, because each year that we fail to account for permafrost is another year that we become unwittingly locked-in to more severe climate warming.

我們要確保永久凍土的釋放量 被計(jì)入全球排放目標(biāo)中, 因?yàn)槊磕晡床槊鞯?永久凍土釋放量 都會(huì)使我們無(wú)意識(shí)地在下一年 陷入更加嚴(yán)重的氣候變暖困境。

【48】So we're working with leading policy experts to bring this new knowledge to the table with the decision-makers at the highest level to make sure that global climate policy is accounting for permafrost and aiming for the right targets.

所以我們與主要政策制定專家 一起將這些知識(shí) 傳遞給高層決策者, 以確保全球氣候政策 將永久凍土考慮在內(nèi) 并設(shè)定正確的目標(biāo)。

【49】But the truth is, even with the most ambitious climate action, some permafrost is going to thaw -- that's already happening.

然而事實(shí)是, 即使有宏大的氣候方案 永久凍土也會(huì)融化 它正在融化。

【50】Right now across the Arctic, people are having to make extremely difficult decisions about where and how to live in order to protect themselves and their families from the hazards of climate change.

如今北極地區(qū)的人們 不得不作出最艱難的決定, 關(guān)于在哪里生活, 怎樣生活, 以避免他們和家人 受到氣候變化帶來(lái)的傷害。

【51】So we're working with our team members and our partners who live on permafrost to bring these monitoring and modeling tools to assess the current and future impacts of permafrost thaw on Arctic communities, and to co-create adaptation plans that protect and respect the health, well-being and human rights of Arctic residents.

我們與我們的團(tuán)隊(duì)成員 和住在永久凍土上的 伙伴們合作, 引入這些測(cè)量 和建模工具 來(lái)評(píng)估當(dāng)前和未來(lái) 永久凍土融化對(duì)北極社區(qū)的影響, 并共同創(chuàng)造出一個(gè) 可取的方案 以維護(hù)北極地區(qū)居民的 健康、福祉和人權(quán)。

【52】These are the gaps we plan to fill.

這是我們要填補(bǔ)的空缺。

【53】Painting a picture of the Arctic that we have never been able to see before, and recognizing that ultimately, the climate crisis is a human rights crisis, and it's one that's already underway.

描繪出我們從未見(jiàn)過(guò)的 北極的圖景, 并認(rèn)識(shí)到氣候危機(jī) 說(shuō)到底是人權(quán)危機(jī), 并且這是正在發(fā)生的危機(jī)。

【54】But through these actions that we take now, we can greatly reduce future harm and take us on a more just and equitable journey.

通過(guò)我們采取的措施, 我們極大地減少了 未來(lái)的危害, 我們正踏上更加公正的旅程。

【55】Thank you.

謝謝。