The Dutch province of Groningen sits on Europe’s biggest proven gasfield. Decades of extraction have caused small earthquakes that have left thousands of houses unstable, leading the government to reduce gas flows to a minimum and promise to shut the field by 2024. Gas prices are now so high that if it allowed regular pumping, the government could make every owner of a wobbly home a millionaire. But that is politically impossible. Even in the midst of an energy crisis, which could get worse in 2023, support for boosting energy production is shaky.?

荷蘭格羅寧根省坐落在歐洲最大的已探明天然氣田上。幾十年的開采已經(jīng)引發(fā)了小地震，導(dǎo)致成千上萬(wàn)的房屋不穩(wěn)定，這使得政府將天然氣流量減少到最低水平，并承諾到2024年關(guān)閉該氣田?，F(xiàn)在的天然氣價(jià)格如此之高，如果允許定期開采，政府可以讓每一個(gè)搖搖欲墜的房子的主人成為百萬(wàn)富翁。但這在政治上是不可能的。即使在能源危機(jī)中(這種危機(jī)可能在2023年變得更糟)，對(duì)提高能源生產(chǎn)的支持也靠不住。

Most businesses and households are understandably focusing on staying warm (and solvent) through this winter, not the next one. Policymakers are scrambling to help them with billions of euros. In early September, the German government coalition agreed on a new package of measures worth €65bn ($62.5bn), and then added another €200bn at the end of the month. Italy’s incoming government will come under immediate pressure to raise the country’s aid packages, already worth 3% of GDP.?

大多數(shù)企業(yè)和家庭都把重點(diǎn)放在“在這個(gè)冬天”保暖(和有償付能力)上，而不是下一個(gè)冬天，這是可以理解的。政策制定者們正爭(zhēng)先恐后地用數(shù)十億歐元來(lái)幫助他們。9月初，德國(guó)聯(lián)合政府同意了價(jià)值650億歐元(合625億美元)的一攬子新措施，并在9月底又增加了2000億歐元。意大利即將上任的政府將立即面臨提高援助計(jì)劃的壓力，援助計(jì)劃已經(jīng)占到GDP的3%。

Here is the bad news, though. Europe’s crisis will not end come spring. Goldman Sachs, a bank, recently projected gas prices in summer next year to be around €235 per MWh, higher than they are today (the pre-pandemic price was around €20). German electricity futures for the fourth quarter of 2023 are more expensive than for the fourth quarter of this year. Even in France, where policymakers hope that the many nuclear reactors currently shut for maintenance and repairs will return in 2023, the real worry is next winter, not this one, according to one energy boss.

不過(guò)，這里有個(gè)壞消息。歐洲危機(jī)不會(huì)在春天結(jié)束。高盛銀行最近預(yù)測(cè)，明年夏天的天然氣價(jià)格將在每兆瓦時(shí)235歐元左右，高于現(xiàn)在的價(jià)格(大流行前的價(jià)格約為20歐元)。德國(guó)2023年第四季度的電力期貨價(jià)格高于今年第四季度。根據(jù)一位能源老板的說(shuō)法，即使在法國(guó)，那里的政策制定者希望目前因維護(hù)和修理而關(guān)閉的許多核反應(yīng)堆在2023年恢復(fù)運(yùn)行，真正令人擔(dān)憂的是下一個(gè)冬天，而不是這個(gè)冬天。

There are several reasons why prices are likely to remain high. If the winter is particularly cold, Europe’s gas storage facilities could be virtually empty by March. In 2022 Russian gas helped fill them, until Russia cut supplies over the summer in response to sanctions. Unless these resume in 2023, gas to replenish European stores will have to come from elsewhere. But little additional supply is expected to hit global markets before 2024, say analysts. This week’s sabotage of undersea pipelines, possibly by Russia, is another reason to worry that supply may be constrained next year, as are overdue closures for maintenance of facilities in Norway.

價(jià)格可能保持高位有幾個(gè)原因。如果冬天特別冷，到3月，歐洲的天然氣儲(chǔ)存設(shè)施可能幾乎會(huì)“清空”。2022年，俄羅斯天然氣幫助填補(bǔ)了這些空缺，直到今年夏天，俄羅斯為了應(yīng)對(duì)制裁而切斷了供應(yīng)。除非在2023年恢復(fù)供應(yīng)，否則補(bǔ)充歐洲儲(chǔ)存設(shè)施的天然氣將不得不從其他地方來(lái)。但分析師們表示，預(yù)計(jì)在2024年之前，全球市場(chǎng)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)更多供應(yīng)。本周對(duì)海底管道的破壞(可能是俄羅斯所為)，是人們擔(dān)心明年石油供應(yīng)可能受到限制的另一個(gè)原因，同樣擔(dān)心的還有挪威為維護(hù)設(shè)施而逾期關(guān)閉的事件。

The Netherlands’ Groningen gasfield is the only potential game-changer in Europe, say experts. It pumped out 42bn cubic metres in 2014, and could still produce 20-25bn, around 5% of Europe’s gas needs, according to the firms that own the concession to exploit the field. But the politics is fraught. The government has been slow to reinforce houses and compensate owners. Now it is putting their safety first.

專家表示，荷蘭格羅寧根氣田是歐洲唯一可能改變游戲規(guī)則的氣田。據(jù)擁有該氣田開采權(quán)的公司稱，2014年它的天然氣產(chǎn)量為420億立方米，仍可生產(chǎn)200-250億立方米，約占?xì)W洲天然氣需求的5%。但政治因素令人擔(dān)憂。政府在加固房屋和補(bǔ)償業(yè)主方面進(jìn)展緩慢?，F(xiàn)在則把他們的安全放在第一位。

Happily, the capacity to handle imports is improving. A floating LNG terminal in Eemshaven on the Dutch coast has just come online, and Germany is on course to add two more this year. A long-awaited pipeline connecting Norway to Poland via Denmark will begin operations in October, pumping up to 10bn cubic metres per year in the future. A new pipeline of about half that capacity from Poland to Slovakia will also start pumping, and the French-German interconnector is being retrofitted to allow eastward flows soon.

令人高興的是，處理進(jìn)口的能力正在提高。位于荷蘭海岸埃姆斯哈文的一個(gè)浮動(dòng)液化天然氣終端剛剛投入使用，而德國(guó)正計(jì)劃在今年再增加兩個(gè)。一條人們期待已久、經(jīng)丹麥連接挪威和波蘭的管道將于今年10月開始運(yùn)營(yíng)，未來(lái)每年可輸送至多100億立方米天然氣。一條從波蘭到斯洛伐克的新管道也將開始輸送，其輸送能力約為50億立方米，法國(guó)和德國(guó)的連接管道也正在進(jìn)行改造，以便能夠很快向東輸送。

But competition between European countries for these supplies will be fierce. Poland has not secured supplies beyond the current heating season to fill its share of the new pipeline in full, according to its national gas company PGNiG. Germany is struggling to sign so-called solidarity agreements with some of its neighbours to secure supplies in case of shortages this winter. In the meantime, Berlin is unwilling to sign longer-term LNG contracts to secure supplies from abroad, and instead seems to trust its spending power to redirect LNG shipments to its shores as needed, at the expense of poorer countries. The EU’s platform to facilitate joint gas purchases to help those countries secure better prices has yet to come online.

但歐洲國(guó)家之間對(duì)這些供應(yīng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)將是激烈的。據(jù)波蘭石油天然氣公司稱，在當(dāng)前供暖季之后，波蘭還沒(méi)有獲得足以完全填補(bǔ)新管道的供應(yīng)量。德國(guó)正努力與一些鄰國(guó)簽署所謂的團(tuán)結(jié)協(xié)議，以確保供應(yīng)，以防今年冬天出現(xiàn)短缺問(wèn)題。與此同時(shí)，柏林方面不愿簽署較長(zhǎng)期的液化天然氣合同，以確保從國(guó)外獲得供應(yīng)，相反，它似乎相信自己的購(gòu)買力，能夠在需要時(shí)犧牲較貧窮國(guó)家的利益，從而將液化天然氣運(yùn)輸重新導(dǎo)向其海岸。歐盟促進(jìn)聯(lián)合購(gòu)買天然氣以幫助這些國(guó)家獲得更好價(jià)格的平臺(tái)尚未上線。

High gas prices are also a major reason why electricity in Europe will continue to be expensive. Getting French nuclear power back to full capacity is crucial, as France is typically an exporter of electricity, but on current government projections that will take time. Germany is only reluctantly planning to extend the life of two of its three remaining nuclear power plants, and only until mid-April, despite its own analysis showing that it would save some gas. Poland has already restricted electricity exports to Germany, to lower its own electricity prices and to avoid burning too much coal, though officially it says it is to ensure security of power supply. The Swedish government is under pressure to do the same.?

高企的天然氣價(jià)格也是歐洲電力價(jià)格居高不下的一個(gè)主要原因。讓法國(guó)的核電恢復(fù)滿負(fù)荷運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)至關(guān)重要，因?yàn)榉▏?guó)通常是一個(gè)電力出口國(guó)，但根據(jù)政府目前的預(yù)測(cè)，這需要時(shí)間。德國(guó)只是不情愿地計(jì)劃延長(zhǎng)剩余三座核電站中的兩座的使用壽命，而且只延長(zhǎng)到4月中旬，盡管德國(guó)自己的分析顯示，這樣做可以節(jié)省一些天然氣。波蘭已經(jīng)限制了對(duì)德國(guó)的電力出口，以降低本國(guó)的電價(jià)，并避免燃燒過(guò)多的煤，盡管官方稱這是為了確保電力供應(yīng)安全。瑞典政府也面臨著同樣的壓力。

The longer the crisis drags on, the more difficult the political conflicts within and between countries will become. Home owners in Groningen, nuclear-power opponents in Germany and politicians across Europe shielding consumers from high prices all have their reasons to do so. But the collective result will be limited energy supply, excess demand and high prices all round in 2023.

危機(jī)拖得越久，國(guó)家內(nèi)部和國(guó)家之間的政治沖突就會(huì)變得越困難。格羅寧根的房主、德國(guó)的核能反對(duì)者以及歐洲各地保護(hù)消費(fèi)者免受高價(jià)格沖擊的政客們都有他們這樣做的理由。但總體的結(jié)果將是，到2023年，能源供應(yīng)有限，需求過(guò)剩，價(jià)格居高不下。