The Economic Journal 2023年 8月刊? ? ——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨

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? 1.The Dark Side of Transparency: Mission Variety and Industry Equilibrium in Decentralised Public Good Provision 透明度的陰黑一面:在分散的公共利益中,任務(wù)多樣性和行業(yè)平衡 Gani Aldashev ; Esteban Jaimovich; Thierry Verdier We study the implications of transparency policies on decentralised public good provision by the non-profit sector. We present a model where imperfect monitoring of the use of funds interacts with the competitive structure of the non-profit sector under alternative informational regimes. Increasing transparency regarding the use of funds may have ambiguous effects on total public good provision and on donors’ welfare. On the one hand, transparency encourages all non-profit firms to engage more actively in curbing fund diversion. On the other hand, it tilts the playing field against non-profits facing higher monitoring costs, pressing them to give up on their missions. This effect on the extensive margin implies that transparency policies lead to a reduction in the diversity of social missions addressed by the non-profit sector. We show that the negative impact of transparency on social mission variety and on donors’ welfare is highest for intermediate levels of asymmetry in monitoring costs. ? 2.Urban Sprawl and Social Capital: Evidence from Indonesian Cities 城市擴張與社會資本:來自印度尼西亞城市的證據(jù) Andrea Civelli; Arya Gaduh ; Alexander D Rothenberg; Yao Wang We use detailed data from Indonesian cities to study how variation in density within urban areas affects social capital. For identification, we instrument density with soil characteristics, and control for community averages of observed characteristics. Under plausible assumptions, these controls address sorting on observables and unobservables. We find that lower density increases trust in neighbours and community participation. We also find that lower density is associated with reduced interethnic tolerance, but this relationship is explained by sorting. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that crime in dense areas undermines community trust and participation, intensifying the negative impact of density. ? 3.Police Response Time and Injury Outcomes 警察反應(yīng)時間和傷害結(jié)果 Gregory DeAngelo; Marina Toger ; Sarit Weisburd The delayed response of law enforcement to calls for service has become a hot button issue when evaluating police department performance. While it is often assumed that faster response times could play an important role in quelling potentially violent incidents, there is no empirical evidence to support this claim. In this paper, we measure the effect of police response time on the likelihood that an incident will result in an injury. To overcome the endogeneity of more severe calls being assigned higher priority, which requires a faster response, we take several steps. First, we focus on the subset of calls for service categorised as ‘Major Disturbance—Violence’ that all receive the same priority level. Second, we instrument for police response time with the number of vehicles within a 2.5-mile radius of the incident at the time it is received by the call centre. When controlling for beat, month and time-of-day fixed effects, this instrumenting strategy allows us to take advantage of the geographical constraints faced by a dispatcher when assigning officers to an incident. In contrast to the ordinary least squares estimates, our two-stage least squares analysis establishes a strong causal relationship whereby increasing response time increases the likelihood that an incident results in an injury. The effect is concentrated among female victims, suggesting that faster response time could potentially play an important role in reducing injuries related to domestic violence. ? 4.Individual Consequences of Occupational Decline 職業(yè)衰退的個人后果 Per-Anders Edin; Tiernan Evans; Georg Graetz ; Sofia Hernn?s; Guy Michaels We assess the career earnings losses that individual Swedish workers suffered when their occupations’ employment declined. High-quality data allow us to overcome sorting into declining occupations on various attributes, including cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Our estimates show that occupational decline reduced mean cumulative earnings from 1986–2013 by no more than 2%–5%. This loss reflects a combination of reduced earnings conditional on employment, reduced years of employment and increased time spent in unemployment and retraining. While on average workers successfully mitigated their losses, those initially at the bottom of their occupations’ earnings distributions lost up to 8%–11%. ? 5.Labour Taxes, Market Size and Productivity Growth 勞動稅、市場規(guī)模和生產(chǎn)率增長 Domenico Ferraro ; Soroush Ghazi; Pietro F Peretto How do changes in labour taxes affect innovation and aggregate productivity growth? To answer this question, we propose a quantitative, general equilibrium growth model featuring product and quality innovation with endogenous market structure, estimate its parameters and provide empirical validation for the propagation mechanism of labour tax changes. We find that a temporary cut in flat-rate labour taxes produces a growth acceleration in aggregate productivity, permanently increasing the path of real GDP per capita. Moreover, such permanent gains are sizeable even without long-run growth effects. 勞動稅的變化如何影響創(chuàng)新和總生產(chǎn)率增長?為了回答這一問題，我們提出了一個具有內(nèi)生市場結(jié)構(gòu)的產(chǎn)品和質(zhì)量創(chuàng)新的定量一般均衡增長模型，估計了其參數(shù)，并對勞動稅變動的傳播機制進(jìn)行了實證驗證。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，暫時削減統(tǒng)一稅率的勞動稅會加速總生產(chǎn)率的增長，從而永久性地提高實際人均GDP的增長路徑。此外，即使沒有長期增長效應(yīng)，這種永久性收益也是相當(dāng)可觀的。 ? 6.Unraveling Firms: Demand, Productivity and Markups Heterogeneity 拆解企業(yè):需求、生產(chǎn)率和加成率異質(zhì)性 Emanuele Forlani; Ralf Martin; Giordano Mion; Mirabelle Mu?ls We develop a novel framework that simultaneously allows recovering heterogeneity in demand, quantity total factor productivity and markups across firms while leaving the correlation between the three dimensions unrestricted. We accomplish this by explicitly introducing demand heterogeneity and systematically exploiting assumptions used in previous productivity estimation approaches. In doing so, we provide an exact decomposition of revenue productivity in terms of the underlying heterogeneities, thus bridging the gap between quantity and revenue productivity estimations. We use Belgian firms’ production data to quantify total factor productivity, demand and markups, and show how they are correlated with each other across time and with measures obtained from other approaches. In doing so, we find quantity total factor productivity and demand to be strongly negatively correlated with each other, so suggesting a trade-off between the quality of a firm’s products and their production cost. We also show how our framework provides deeper and sharper insights on the response of firms to increasing import competition from China. In particular, we find that changes in revenue productivity materialise as the outcome of complex and sometimes offsetting changes in quantity total factor productivity, demand, markups and production scale. 我們開發(fā)了一個新的框架，同時允許恢復(fù)需求、數(shù)量、全要素生產(chǎn)率和企業(yè)間加價的異質(zhì)性，同時使三個維度之間的相關(guān)性不受限制。我們通過明確地引入需求異質(zhì)性和系統(tǒng)地利用在以前的生產(chǎn)力估計方法中使用的假設(shè)來實現(xiàn)這一點。在此過程中，我們根據(jù)潛在的異質(zhì)性提供了收入生產(chǎn)率的精確分解，從而彌合了數(shù)量和收入生產(chǎn)率估計之間的差距。我們使用比利時公司的生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)來量化全要素生產(chǎn)率、需求和加價，并顯示它們?nèi)绾坞S時間相互關(guān)聯(lián)，并與從其他方法獲得的措施相關(guān)聯(lián)。在這樣做的過程中，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)數(shù)量全要素生產(chǎn)率和需求之間存在強烈的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系，因此表明企業(yè)產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量與其生產(chǎn)成本之間存在權(quán)衡關(guān)系。我們還展示了我們的框架如何為企業(yè)應(yīng)對來自中國的進(jìn)口競爭提供更深入、更清晰的見解。特別是，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)收入生產(chǎn)率的變化是數(shù)量、全要素生產(chǎn)率、需求、加價和生產(chǎn)規(guī)模的復(fù)雜變化(有時是相互抵消的變化)的結(jié)果。 ? 7.The Intergenerational Transmission of World War I on Female Labour 第一次世界大戰(zhàn)對女性勞動的代際傳遞 Victor Gay Demographic shocks tied to World War I’s high death toll induced many women to enter the labour force in the immediate post-war period. I document a positive impact of these newly employed women on the labour force participation of subsequent generations of women until today. I also find that the war permanently altered attitudes toward the role of women in the labour force. I decompose this impact into three channels of intergenerational transmission: transmission from mothers to daughters, transmission from mothers-in-law to daughters-in-law via their sons and transmission through local social interactions. ? 8.Parental Responses to Information about School Quality: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data 家長對學(xué)校質(zhì)量信息的反應(yīng)：來自相關(guān)調(diào)查和行政數(shù)據(jù)的證據(jù) Ellen Greaves ; Iftikhar Hussain; Birgitta Rabe; Imran Rasul We study the interaction between family and school inputs by identifying the causal impact of information about school quality on parental time investment into children. Inspection ratings provide news that shifts parental beliefs about school quality, and hence investment into children. We study this using household panel data from England, linked to administrative records on school inspection ratings. We find that parents receiving good news over school quality significantly decrease time investment into their children. We provide insights on the distributional and test score impacts of the nationwide inspections regime, through multiple margins of endogenous response of parents and children. ? 9.Culture and Gender Differences in Willingness to Compete 競爭意愿的文化和性別差異 Karen Evelyn Hauge; Andreas Kotsadam; Anine Riege We investigate how culture affects gender differences in willingness to compete in a large pre-registered experiment using an epidemiological approach. Our sample of 1,943 Norwegians with parents born in 59 different countries shows a smaller gender gap in willingness to compete among individuals of more gender-equal ancestries. The difference is driven by women with parents from more gender-equal countries wanting to compete more and men with the same ancestry wanting to compete less. The results are robust to controlling for a large set of factors at the individual, parental and ancestral country levels, indicating that gendered culture shapes competitive preferences. ? 10.Formal Employment and Organised Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia 正式就業(yè)和有組織犯罪:哥倫比亞回歸不連續(xù)性證據(jù) Gaurav Khanna; Carlos Medina; Anant Nyshadham; Jorge Tamayo; Nicolas Torres Safety net programs, common in settings with high informality like Latin America, often use a means test to establish eligibility. We ask: in settings in which organised crime provides lucrative opportunities in the informal market, will discouraging formal employment via benefits eligibility criteria increase criminal enterprise activity? We link administrative socioeconomic microdata with the universe of arrests in Medellín over a decade, and exploit exogenous variation in formal-sector employment around a socioeconomic-score cutoff, below which individuals receive generous benefits if not formally employed. Regression discontinuity estimates confirm this policy reduced formal-sector employment and generated a corresponding increase in arrests associated with organised crime. We do not find increases for crimes unlikely to be associated with organised entities, such as crimes of impulse or opportunity. Effects on arrests are strongest in neighbourhoods where organised crime is most prevalent. ? 11.Ride-Sharing and the Geography of Consumption Industries 拼車與消費行業(yè)地理 Jordan J Norris; Heyu Xiong Cities are centres of the consumption industries—establishments offering nightlife, food, recreation and retail. However, the city’s associated consumer value is inseparable from its geography because residents must travel to consume. By exploiting both the staggered entry across cities and the precise geographic boundary of Uber services for credible identification, we show that the introduction of ride-share technology into a city caused large and significant growth in the consumption industries. We provide evidence that the results are driven by an increase in consumer mobility, due to Uber causing a reduction in the economic cost of travel. ? 12.Optimal Contact Tracing and Social Distancing Policies to Suppress A New Infectious Disease 抑制新型傳染病的最佳接觸者追蹤和社會距離政策 Stefan Pollinger This paper studies the suppression of an infectious disease in the canonical susceptible-infectious-recovered model. It derives three results. First, if technically feasible, the optimal response to a sufficiently small outbreak is halting transmissions instead of building up immunity through infections. Second, the crucial trade-off is not between health and economic costs, but between the intensity and duration of control measures. A simple formula of observables characterises the optimum. Third, the total cost depends critically on the efficiency of contact tracing, since it allows relaxing costly social distancing without increasing transmissions. A calibration to the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the theoretical findings. ? 13.Rice Farming and the Origins of Cooperative Behaviour 水稻種植和合作行為的起源 Xiaoyu Zhou; Theodore Alysandratos; Michael Naef This paper provides novel evidence for links between historic farming practices and current norms of cooperative behaviour. We hypothesise that the cooperation required in wetland rice farming gives rise to strong cultural norms of cooperativeness. We compare participants from prefecture cities that predominately practice wetland rice cultivation to those from non-rice regions. A public goods game with and without punishment is the main measure for cooperative behaviour. Results indicate a strong and robust positive effect of wetland rice farming on cooperative behaviour and pro-social punishment. Complementary, consistent evidence from a natural field experiment and a survey further enriches our data. ? SHORT PAPER 14.When Information Conflicts with Obligations: the Role of Motivated Cognition 當(dāng)信息與義務(wù)沖突:動機認(rèn)知的作用 Ao Wang; Shaoda Wang; Xiaoyang Ye We experimentally test how psychological motivations can impact the processing of purely objective information. We first document that, when the high-stakes College Entrance Exam is held in the month of Ramadan, Chinese Muslim students perform significantly worse. When asked about the impact of fasting, they severely underestimate the cost of taking the exam during Ramadan, even when presented with direct empirical evidence. In the experiment, we randomly offer students reading materials in which well-respected Muslim clerics explain that it is permissible to postpone the fast until after the exam. Consistent with an interpretation of motivated cognition, students who receive the material distort the statistics about the fasting cost significantly less and become more accepting of delaying the fast for the exam.