【TED演講稿】馬斯克：一個令人無比期待的未來
TED演講者：Elon Musk / 埃隆 · 馬斯克
演講標題：A future worth getting excited about / 一個令人無比期待的未來
內(nèi)容概要：What's on Elon Musk's mind? In conversation with head of TED Chris Anderson, Musk details how the radical new innovations he's working on -- Tesla's intelligent humanoid robot Optimus, SpaceX's otherworldly Starship and Neuralink's brain-machine interfaces, among others -- could help maximize the lifespan of humanity and create a world where goods and services are abundant and accessible for all. It's a compelling vision of a future worth getting excited about. (Recorded at the Tesla Texas Gigafactory on April 6, 2022)
埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）在想些什么？在與 TED 創(chuàng)始人克里斯·安德森（Chris Anderson）的談話中，馬斯克詳細講述了他正在做一些激進的創(chuàng)新，例如特斯拉的智能人形機器人擎天柱、SpaceX 項目的異世界星際飛船以及 Neuralink 項目的腦機接口等等。這些創(chuàng)新項目都可以最大限度地延長人類的壽命，創(chuàng)造一個人人都可以享受豐富產(chǎn)品服務的世界。這一未來愿景值得我們?yōu)橹诖?（本次訪談于 2022 年 4 月 6 日在德克薩斯州特斯拉超級工廠錄制）
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【1】Chris Anderson: Elon Musk, great to see you.
克里斯.安德森: 埃隆.馬斯克,很高興見到你。
【2】How are you?
你好嗎？
【3】Elon Musk: Good. How are you?
埃隆.馬斯克:很好,你怎么樣？
【4】CA: We're here at the Texas Gigafactory the day before this thing opens.
安德森:我們在德州工廠 開幕的前一天來到這里,
【5】It's been pretty crazy out there.
這里的東西太棒了。
【6】Thank you so much for making time on a busy day.
非常感謝你在百忙之中抽出時間,
【7】I would love you to help us, kind of, cast our minds, I don't know, 10, 20, 30 years into the future.
我希望你能給我們講一講, 10年,20年,30年之后的未來是什么樣子的,
【8】And help us try to picture what it would take to build a future that's worth getting excited about.
并且談一談我們需要做些什么, 從而創(chuàng)造一個令我們向往的未來。
【9】The last time you spoke at TED, you said that that was really just a big driver.
上次你在 TED 演講時, 你提到有一個很強的東西激勵著你,
【10】You know, you can talk about lots of other reasons to do the work you're doing, but fundamentally, you want to think about the future and not think that it sucks.
你可以給你正在從事的事業(yè)說出很多的理由, 可這之中最重要的原因是你想要考慮未來, 而不是考慮他有多么的糟糕。
【11】EM: Yeah, absolutely.
馬斯克:對,沒錯。
【12】I think in general, you know, there's a lot of discussion of like, this problem or that problem.
我認為總體而言 對于這樣那樣的問題,我們有許多看法,
【13】And a lot of people are sad about the future and they're ...
很多人對未來倍感悲傷, 而且他們……
【14】Pessimistic.
很悲觀。
【15】And I think ...
我認為……
【16】this is ...
這樣……
【17】This is not great.
這樣不太好。
【18】I mean, we really want to wake up in the morning and look forward to the future.
我想說,我們的確想在早上醒來后 對未來充滿期望,
【19】We want to be excited about what's going to happen.
我們希望對一切即將到來的事情感到興奮,
【20】And life cannot simply be about sort of, solving one miserable problem after another.
生活不能只是單純地 解決一個又一個痛苦的問題。
【21】CA: So if you look forward 30 years, you know, the year 2050 has been labeled by scientists as this, kind of, almost like this doomsday deadline on climate.
安德森:所以如果你展望 30 年后的生活, 也就是 2050 年 已經(jīng)被科學家們打上了標簽, 有點像是解決氣候問題的最后期限。
【22】There's a consensus of scientists, a large consensus of scientists, who believe that if we haven't completely eliminated greenhouse gases or offset them completely by 2050, effectively we're inviting climate catastrophe.
科學家們有一個共識,一個廣泛的共識, 他們認為如果我們不完全消除溫室氣體, 或者到 2050 年 還沒有完全消除溫室氣體的影響, 那么我們實際上就是在引發(fā)氣候災難。
【23】Do you believe there is a pathway to avoid that catastrophe?
你相信有什么途徑可以避免這種災難嗎？
【24】And what would it look like?
這條途徑會是什么樣子？
【25】EM: Yeah, so I am not one of the doomsday people, which may surprise you.
馬斯克:沒錯,我不是世界末日論者。 你可能會對此感到驚訝,
【26】I actually think we're on a good path.
實際上,我覺得我們正走在一條很好的道路上,
【27】But at the same time, I want to caution against complacency.
但同時, 我想提醒大家不要自滿,
【28】So, so long as we are not complacent, as long as we have a high sense of urgency about moving towards a sustainable energy economy, then I think things will be fine.
所以,只要我們不自滿, 只要我們就有一種高度的緊迫感, 努力實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)的能源經(jīng)濟。 那么我想一切都會好起來的。
【29】So I can't emphasize that enough, as long as we push hard and are not complacent, the future is going to be great.
所以我非常強調(diào) 只要我們足夠努力且不自滿, 那么未來將十分美好。
【30】Don't worry about it.
不必擔心,
【31】I mean, worry about it, but if you worry about it, ironically, it will be a self-unfulfilling prophecy.
我的意思是,還是要擔心一下。 但諷刺的是,如果你擔心, 這個預言本身就會前后矛盾無法實現(xiàn)了
【32】So, like, there are three elements to a sustainable energy future.
所以,實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)能源的未來要有三個因素:
【33】One is of sustainable energy generation, which is primarily wind and solar.
第一是可持續(xù)能源發(fā)電, 主要是風能和太陽能
【34】There's also hydro, geothermal, I'm actually pro-nuclear.
還有水能,地熱能, 我支持核能發(fā)電,
【35】I think nuclear is fine.
我認為核能發(fā)電沒什么問題。
【36】But it's going to be primarily solar and wind, as the primary generators of energy.
但主要還是太陽能和風能, 作為主要的電力來源;
【37】The second part is you need batteries to store the solar and wind energy because the sun doesn't shine all the time, the wind doesn't blow all the time.
第二是你需要電池來儲存太陽能和風能, 因為太陽并不會一直照耀, 風不會一直在吹,
【38】So it's a lot of stationary battery packs.
所以這就需要大量的固定電池組。
【39】And then you need electric transport.
第三是你需要實現(xiàn)電力傳輸,
【40】So electric cars, electric planes, boats.
從而支持電動汽車、電動飛機、電動船,
【41】And then ultimately, it's not really possible to make electric rockets, but you can make the propellant used in rockets using sustainable energy.
而最后, 我們似乎不太可能造的出電動火箭, 但是可以讓火箭發(fā)射的推進劑 使用可持續(xù)能源。
【42】So ultimately, we can have a fully sustainable energy economy.
這樣我們就可以最終擁有一個 完全可持續(xù)的能源經(jīng)濟,
【43】And it's those three things: solar/wind, stationary battery pack, electric vehicles.
在那三個東西的幫助下, 也就是太陽能/風能, 固定電池組,電動交通工具。
【44】So then what are the limiting factors on progress?
那么什么是限制進步的因素呢？
【45】The limiting factor really will be battery cell production.
真正限制的因素將會是電池的生產(chǎn),
【46】So that's going to really be the fundamental rate driver.
這一點會是影響發(fā)展速度最關鍵的因素。
【47】And then whatever the slowest element of the whole lithium-ion battery cells supply chain, from mining and the many steps of refining to ultimately creating a battery cell and putting it into a pack, that will be the limiting factor on progress towards sustainability.
生產(chǎn)過程中發(fā)展最慢的因素 即在整個鋰離子電池供應鏈中, 從采礦和提煉的多個步驟 到最終制成鋰離子電池并將其打包, 其中發(fā)展最慢的部分 將限制可持續(xù)發(fā)展的進步。
【48】CA: All right, so we need to talk more about batteries, because the key thing that I want to understand, like, there seems to be a scaling issue here that is kind of amazing and alarming.
安德森:好的, 所以我們需要更多地談一談電池, 因為我最想了解的是 似乎有一個關于電池量規(guī)模的問題, 有點令人驚訝且令人擔憂。
【49】You have said that you have calculated that the amount of battery production that the world needs for sustainability is 300 terawatt hours of batteries.
你曾說你已經(jīng)計算了 世界可持續(xù)發(fā)展所需要的電池產(chǎn)量 達到了300太瓦時,
【50】That's the end goal?
這是我們的最終目標嗎？
【51】EM: Very rough numbers, and I certainly would invite others to check our calculations because they may arrive at different conclusions.
馬斯克:這只是一個非常粗略的數(shù)字, 我當然會邀請其他人來驗證我們的計算, 因為他們可能會得出不同的結(jié)論,
【52】But in order to transition, not just current electricity production, but also heating and transport, which roughly triples the amount of electricity that you need, it amounts to approximately 300 terawatt hours of installed capacity.
但是為了實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)能源的過渡, 除了目前的電力生產(chǎn)外, 還有供暖和交通需要改變。 因為其消耗的能量大概是所需電量的三倍, 而它的裝機容量大約為 300 太瓦時。
【53】CA: So we need to give people a sense of how big a task that is.
安德森:所以我們需要讓人們知道 這個任務是多么的龐大,
【54】I mean, here we are at the Gigafactory.
我們現(xiàn)在身處于特斯拉超級工廠,
【55】You know, this is one of the biggest buildings in the world.
這是世界上最大的建筑之一。
【56】What I've read, and tell me if this is still right, is that the goal here is to eventually produce 100 gigawatt hours of batteries here a year eventually.
我了解到的是 這里的最終目標是 一年要生產(chǎn) 100 千兆瓦時的電池, 現(xiàn)在的目標還是這樣嗎？
【57】EM: We will probably do more than that, but yes, hopefully we get there within a couple of years.
馬斯克:我們可能會生產(chǎn)得更多 但我們的確希望能在幾年內(nèi)做到這一點。
【58】CA: Right.
安德森:好的。
【59】But I mean, that is one - EM: 0.1 terrawat hours.
但我的意思是,這是 1 馬斯克:0.1 太瓦時。
【60】CA: But that's still 1/100 of what's needed.
安德森:但這依然只有我們需要的百分之一,
【61】How much of the rest of that 100 is Tesla planning to take on let's say, between now and 2030, 2040, when we really need to see the scale up happen?
剩下的部分特斯拉準備接手多少？ 比如說:從現(xiàn)在到 2030 或 2040 年 也就是到真正需要擴大電池生產(chǎn)規(guī)模的時候？
【62】EM: I mean, these are just guesses.
馬斯克:我的意思是,這些還只是猜測
【63】So please, people shouldn't hold me to these things.
所以人們不必因為這種預測責怪我,
【64】It's not like this is like some - What tends to happen is I'll make some like, you know, best guess and then people, in five years, there'll be some jerk that writes an article: "Elon said this would happen, and it didn't happen.
這又不是什么…… 通常會發(fā)生的事情是:我會做出一些 盡我所能可以做出的最好猜測, 然后在五年后, 一定會有一些混蛋寫一篇這樣的文章: “馬斯克曾說這件事一定會發(fā)生,但并沒有
【65】He's a liar and a fool."
他就是個騙子,是個傻瓜?！?/p>
【66】It's very annoying when that happens.
這種事情很讓人生氣,
【67】So these are just guesses, this is a conversation.
所以這些只是一些猜測,只限于談話。
【68】CA: Right.
安德森:沒錯。
【69】EM: I think Tesla probably ends up doing 10 percent of that.
馬斯克:我認為特斯拉最終 可能會承擔 10% 的制造任務,
【70】Roughly.
大概是這樣。
【71】CA: Let's say 2050 we have this amazing, you know, 100 percent sustainable electric grid made up of, you know, some mixture of the sustainable energy sources you talked about.
安德森:假設 2050 年, 我們擁有了這個無比神奇的, 完全可持續(xù)的電網(wǎng), 并由一些你談到的多種可持續(xù)能源支持,
【72】That same grid probably is offering the world really low-cost energy, isn't it, compared with now.
同樣的電網(wǎng)也可能在全世界推廣 和現(xiàn)在相比 這種能源的生產(chǎn)成本很低,不是嗎？
【73】And I'm curious about like, are people entitled to get a little bit excited about the possibilities of that world?
我很好奇, 人們是不是應該興奮一下, 因為這樣的未來可能發(fā)生？
【74】EM: People should be optimistic about the future.
馬斯克:人們應該對這樣的未來保持樂觀,
【75】Humanity will solve sustainable energy.
人類將解決可持續(xù)能源的問題。
【76】It will happen if we, you know, continue to push hard, the future is bright and good from an energy standpoint.
只要我們不斷努力,這一切就可以實現(xiàn), 從能源的角度來看,未來一片光明美好。
【77】And then it will be possible to also use that energy to do carbon sequestration.
這樣就有可能利用這些能源進行碳封存,
【78】It takes a lot of energy to pull carbon out of the atmosphere because in putting it in the atmosphere it releases energy.
從大氣中吸收碳需要大量的能量, 因為在排放含碳氣體會放出能量。
【79】So now, you know, obviously in order to pull it out, you need to use a lot of energy.
現(xiàn)在,很明顯為了從大氣中吸收碳, 你需要耗費大量的能量,
【80】But if you've got a lot of sustainable energy from wind and solar, you can actually sequester carbon.
但如果你有大量的可持續(xù)能源, 比如風能和太陽能, 你就可以實現(xiàn)固碳。
【81】So you can reverse the CO2 parts per million of the atmosphere and oceans.
這樣就可以逆轉(zhuǎn)二氧化碳 在大氣與海洋中的含量,
【82】And also you can really have as much fresh water as you want.
而且這樣的話你想要多少淡水都可以。
【83】Earth is mostly water.
地球的大部分都是水,
【84】We should call Earth "Water."
我們應該叫它“水球”。
【85】It's 70 percent water by surface area.
它 70% 的表面被水覆蓋,
【86】Now most of that's seawater, but it's like we just happen to be on the bit that's land.
目前來說大部分是海水, 但就好像我們剛好在陸地的這一邊。
【87】CA: And with energy, you can turn seawater into - EM: Yes.
安德森:有了這些能量就可以把海水變成 馬斯克:沒錯。
【88】CA: Irrigating water or whatever water you need.
安德森:灌溉用水或者任何你需要的水。
【89】EM: At very low cost.
馬斯克:而且成本很低,
【90】Things will be good.
效果也不錯。
【91】CA: Things will be good.
安德森:效果也不錯。
【92】And also, there's other benefits to this non-fossil fuel world where the air is cleaner - EM: Yes, exactly.
而且使用非化石燃料的世界還有別的好處, 那樣世界的空氣會更清新。 馬斯克:對,沒錯。
【93】Because, like, when you burn fossil fuels, there's all these side reactions and toxic gases of various kinds.
因為當你使用化石燃料時, 會產(chǎn)生很多不好的影響, 并且產(chǎn)生各種各樣的有毒氣體,
【94】And sort of little particulates that are bad for your lungs.
還有一些對肺部有害的微粒。
【95】Like, there's all sorts of bad things that are happening that will go away.
現(xiàn)在這些不好的東西, 以后都會消失。
【96】And the sky will be cleaner and quieter.
天空會更干凈,更安靜。
【97】The future's going to be good.
未來會更美好。
【98】CA: I want us to switch now to think a bit about artificial intelligence.
安德森:我現(xiàn)在想轉(zhuǎn)到人工智能的話題,
【99】But the segue there, you mentioned how annoying it is when people call you up for bad predictions in the past.
不過為了讓過渡自然一點,我想說, 你提到別人在責備你時很煩人, 他們會責備你在過去錯誤的預測,
【100】So I'm possibly going to be annoying now, but I'm curious about your timelines and how you predict and how come some things are so amazingly on the money and some aren't.
所以我現(xiàn)在可能會讓你有點生氣。 但我很好奇你之后的時間規(guī)劃、對未來的預測, 以及為什么你在一些金錢上的預測如此準確, 而有些則不然,
【101】So when it comes to predicting sales of Tesla vehicles, for example, you've kind of been amazing, I think in 2014 when Tesla had sold that year 60,000 cars, you said, "2020, I think we will do half a million a year."
例如當你在預測特斯拉汽車的銷售量時, 你一直都準確的驚人, 我記得在 2014 年, 特斯拉一年售出了 6 萬輛汽車。 你說:“我認為我們將在 2020 年生產(chǎn) 50 萬輛?！?/p>
【102】EM: Yeah, we did almost exactly a half million.
馬斯克:是的,我們幾乎正好生產(chǎn)了 50 萬輛。
【103】CA: You did almost exactly half a million.
安德森:你們幾乎正好生產(chǎn)了 50 萬輛。
【104】You were scoffed in 2014 because no one since Henry Ford, with the Model T, had come close to that kind of growth rate for cars.
2014 年時你被嘲笑了,因為自亨利.福特之后, 除了他旗下的T型車, 沒有人可以接近這樣的汽車生產(chǎn)增長率,
【105】You were scoffed, and you actually hit 500,000 cars and then 510,000 or whatever produced.
你被嘲笑了,而特斯拉實際上 真的生產(chǎn)了 50 萬 還是 51 萬輛車。
【106】But five years ago, last time you came to TED, I asked you about full self-driving, and you said, "Yeah, this very year,
但是 5 年前,也就是你上次來 TED 時, 我向你詢問了關于全自動駕駛的問題。 你說:沒錯,就是今年
【107】I'm confident that we will have a car going from LA to New York without any intervention."
我相信特斯拉將使一輛汽車從洛杉磯開往紐約, 但全程不受任何干擾。
【108】EM: Yeah, I don't want to blow your mind, but I'm not always right.
馬斯克:是的,我不想讓你驚訝, 但我并非總是對的
【109】CA: (Laughs) What's the difference between those two?
安德森:（笑聲） 那么這兩者之間有什么區(qū)別呢？
【110】Why has full self-driving in particular been so hard to predict?
為什么全自動駕駛這件事情會特別難以預測？
【111】EM: I mean, the thing that really got me, and I think it's going to get a lot of other people, is that there are just so many false dawns with self-driving, where you think you've got the problem, have a handle on the problem, and then it, no, turns out you just hit a ceiling.
馬斯克:我想有件事情讓我明白了, 我想許多人也會明白, 自動駕駛領域有很多勝利的曙光并不真實, 你以為你解決了這個問題, 掌握了解決的關鍵, 然而并沒有,實際上你只是碰上了瓶頸。
【112】Because if you were to plot the progress, the progress looks like a log curve.
因為如果你把進展繪制成統(tǒng)計圖, 你會發(fā)現(xiàn)它看起來就像一條對數(shù)曲線,
【113】So it's like a series of log curves.
一系列的對數(shù)曲線,
【114】So most people don't know what a log curve is, I suppose.
不過我想大多數(shù)人并不知道對數(shù)曲線是什么。
【115】CA: Show the shape with your hands.
安德森:用手來展示一下它的樣子吧。
【116】EM: It goes up you know, sort of a fairly straight way, and then it starts tailing off and you start getting diminishing returns.
馬斯克:對數(shù)曲線以一種幾乎垂直的方式上升, 之后開始遞減, 你的收益越來越少。
【117】And you're like, uh oh, it was trending up and now it's sort of, curving over and you start getting to these, what I call local maxima, where you don't realize basically how dumb you were.
而你會說,噢, 它之前不斷向上,現(xiàn)在只是有點下降, 然后你就會遇到我稱為局部最大值的問題, 在這種情況下你認識不到自己有多么蠢。
【118】And then it happens again.
然后這種情況將再次發(fā)生,
【119】And ultimately...
直到最后……
【120】These things, you know, in retrospect, they seem obvious, but in order to solve full self-driving properly, you actually have to solve real-world AI.
當這種問題似乎愈發(fā)明顯, 但為了正確處理全自動駕駛的問題, 你就不得不先解決現(xiàn)實世界中的人工智能問題,
【121】Because what are the road networks designed to work with?
在設計時,公路網(wǎng)需要什么才能運行？
【122】They're designed to work with a biological neural net, our brains, and with vision, our eyes.
它們需要生物神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡,也就是我們的大腦, 以及視覺,也就是我們的眼睛,
【123】And so in order to make it work with computers, you basically need to solve real-world AI and vision.
因此,為了讓公路網(wǎng)可以配合計算機運行, 你就需要解決現(xiàn)實世界的人工智能 和計算機視覺技術。
【124】Because we need cameras and silicon neural nets in order to have self-driving work for a system that was designed for eyes and biological neural nets.
因為我們需要攝像頭 以及硅神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡, 從而讓自動駕駛 適用于原先基于視覺 及生物神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡設計的系統(tǒng)。
【125】You know, I guess when you put it that way, it's sort of, like, quite obvious that the only way to solve full self-driving is to solve real world AI and sophisticated vision.
如果你這么想的話, 很明顯, 解決全自動駕駛的唯一方法 就是解決現(xiàn)實世界的人工智能 以及復雜的視覺技術問題。
【126】CA: What do you feel about the current architecture?
安德森:你對目前的體系架構(gòu)有什么看法？
【127】Do you think you have an architecture now where there is a chance for the logarithmic curve not to tail off any anytime soon?
你認為你現(xiàn)在有沒有一種架構(gòu), 可以有一定的機會, 使得這一對數(shù)曲線不至于很快衰減？
【128】EM: Well I mean, admittedly these may be infamous last words, but I actually am confident that we will solve it this year.
馬斯克:我承認這可能是一個臭名昭著的遺言, 但實際上我相信特斯拉將在今年解決這個問題,
【129】That we will exceed - The probability of an accident, at what point do you exceed that of the average person?
這樣我們就能超越…… 在交通事故率的層面上, 我們何時會低于人類駕駛發(fā)生的事故率？
【130】I think we will exceed that this year.
我認為我們將在今年實現(xiàn)這一成就。
【131】CA: What are you seeing behind the scenes that gives you that confidence?
安德森:你在幕后看到了什么讓你這般自信？
【132】EM: We're almost at the point where we have a high-quality unified vector space.
馬斯克:我們幾乎搭建了一個高質(zhì)量的 統(tǒng)一的矢量空間,
【133】In the beginning, we were trying to do this with image recognition on individual images.
一開始,我們在進行圖像識別時, 只是對單個圖像進行分析。
【134】But if you get one image out of a video, it's actually quite hard to see what's going on without ambiguity.
但如果你從一個視頻中截取一幀圖像, 實際上很難看清發(fā)生了什么, 并且容易產(chǎn)生模糊,
【135】But if you look at a video segment of a few seconds of video, that ambiguity resolves.
但如果你看一個幾秒鐘的視頻片段, 這種模糊就消除了,
【136】So the first thing we had to do is tie all eight cameras together so they're synchronized, so that all the frames are looked at simultaneously and labeled simultaneously by one person, because we still need human labeling.
我們首先要將八臺攝像機綁定在一起 使他們實現(xiàn)同步, 這樣所有的畫面都可以同時播放, 并且同時由一個人進行標記。 因為我們依然需要人類進行標注,
【137】So at least they're not labeled at different times by different people in different ways.
至少它們不會在不同的時間由不同的人, 用不同的方式進行標注,
【138】So it's sort of a surround picture.
這是一種環(huán)繞式的圖像。
【139】Then a very important part is to add the time dimension.
這一過程中非常重要的部分就是加入時間維度,
【140】So that you're looking at surround video, and you're labeling surround video.
這樣你看到的就是環(huán)繞式的視頻, 并對其進行標注,
【141】And this is actually quite difficult to do from a software standpoint.
從軟件的角度來看, 這一點實際上是非常困難的。
【142】We had to write our own labeling tools and then create auto labeling, create auto labeling software to amplify the efficiency of human labelers because it's quite hard to label.
我們不得不編寫我們自己的標注工具, 之后編寫一個自動標注軟件, 從而提升人力標注的效率, 因為標注是相當困難的。
【143】In the beginning, it was taking several hours to label a 10-second video clip.
最開始的時候,我們需要花費幾個小時, 標注一個10秒的視頻片段,
【144】This is not scalable.
這樣是無法規(guī)?；ぷ鞯?
【145】So basically what you have to have is you have to have surround video, and that surround video has to be primarily automatically labeled with humans just being editors
所以你必須有環(huán)繞式的視頻, 而且這個視頻必須先由 自動標注程序完成絕大部分工作, 而人類作為編輯者
【146】and making slight corrections to the labeling of the video and then feeding back those corrections into the future auto labeler, so you get this flywheel eventually
只需對視頻的標注做出些許的修正, 然后將這些修正反饋給接下來的自動標注程序, 這樣你就可以形成一個高速運轉(zhuǎn)的處理流程,
【147】where the auto labeler is able to take in vast amounts of video and with high accuracy, automatically label the video for cars, lane lines, drive space.
自動標注程序可以處理大量的視頻, 同時保證很高的準確率, 并自動標注視頻中的汽車、車道線以及駕駛空間。
【148】CA: What you're saying is ...
安德森:你是說……
【149】the result of this is that you're effectively giving the car a 3D model of the actual objects that are all around it.
這樣你就可以給汽車提供一個 車身周圍實際物體的3D模型,
【150】It knows what they are, and it knows how fast they are moving.
這樣就可以知道這些物體是什么, 以及他們的移動速度,
【151】And the remaining task is to predict what the quirky behaviors are that, you know, that when a pedestrian is walking down the road with a smaller pedestrian,
而剩下的任務就是 預測那些異常的行為, 比如當一個大人帶著小孩子過馬路時,
【152】that maybe that smaller pedestrian might do something unpredictable or things like that.
小孩子可能做出一些難以預測的舉動, 或者其他類似的情況,
【153】You have to build into it before you can really call it safe.
你必須解決這樣的問題才可以保證安全。
【154】EM: You basically need to have memory across time and space.
馬斯克:你需要可以記錄時空的記憶,
【155】So what I mean by that is ...
我的意思是
【156】Memory can't be infinite, because it's using up a lot of the computer's RAM basically.
記憶不可能是無限的, 因為它會占用大量電腦內(nèi)存,
【157】So you have to say how much are you going to try to remember?
所以你必須知道你打算記住多少內(nèi)容？
【158】It's very common for things to be occluded.
很多時候東西會被遮擋,
【159】So if you talk about say, a pedestrian walking past a truck where you saw the pedestrian start on one side of the truck, then they're occluded by the truck.
比如當一個行人走過一輛卡車時, 你只能看見他從卡車的一端走了過去, 但之后就被卡車擋住了,
【160】You would know intuitively, OK, that pedestrian is going to pop out the other side, most likely.
你本能地就會知道 那個行人很有可能從卡車另一端出現(xiàn)。
【161】CA: A computer doesn't know it.
安德森:可計算機并不知道。
【162】EM: You need to slow down.
馬斯克:而你得慢下來。
【163】CA: A skeptic is going to say that every year for the last five years, you've kind of said, well, no this is the year, we're confident that it will be there in a year or two or, you know, like it's always been about that far away.
安德森:一個對此持懷疑態(tài)度的人會說 在過去五年中的每一年, 你都會說,沒錯, 就是今年, 我們相信最近一兩年就可以實現(xiàn)目標, 似乎目標總是那么遠。
【164】But we've got a new architecture now, you're seeing enough improvement behind the scenes to make you not certain, but pretty confident, that, by the end of this year,
但是我們現(xiàn)在有了一個新的架構(gòu), 你在幕后也看到了足夠的技術進步, 這讓你雖然并不確定, 但很有信心在今年年底前,
【165】what in most, not in every city, and every circumstance but in many cities and circumstances, basically the car will be able to drive without interventions safer than a human.
盡管并非是在所有城市的所有環(huán)境下, 而是在許多的城市和情況下, 特斯拉的汽車將可以在不受干擾的情況下, 比人類駕駛更加安全。
【166】EM: Yes.
馬斯克:沒錯。
【167】I mean, the car currently drives me around Austin most of the time with no interventions.
我的車現(xiàn)在會載著我在德州的奧斯汀, 大多數(shù)的時候都不需要人工干預,
【168】So it's not like ... And we have over 100,000 people in our full self-driving beta program.
而且我們有超過 10 萬人 是我們?nèi)詣玉{駛的用戶,
【169】So you can look at the videos that they post online.
你可以在網(wǎng)上看到他們發(fā)布的相關視頻。
【170】CA: I do.
安德森:沒錯,我有看。
【171】And some of them are great, and some of them are a little terrifying.
有些視頻看起來很棒,但也有些有點可怕,
【172】I mean, occasionally the car seems to veer off and scare the hell out of people.
因為汽車偶爾會突然轉(zhuǎn)向 把人們嚇壞了。
【173】EM: It's still a beta.
馬斯克:它還只是個試驗版本。
【174】CA: But you're behind the scenes, looking at the data, you're seeing enough improvement to believe that a this-year timeline is real.
安德森:但是你會在幕后看到那些數(shù)據(jù), 你看到了足夠的進步, 讓你相信今年確實可以實現(xiàn)這個目標。
【175】EM: Yes, that's what it seems like.
馬斯克:是的,看起來是這樣的,
【176】I mean, we could be here talking again in a year, like, well, another year went by, and it didn't happen.
一年后我們還可以在這里討論, 可能一年過去了,目標依然沒有實現(xiàn),
【177】But I think this is the year.
但我依然認為今年就是實現(xiàn)全自動駕駛的那一年。
【178】CA: And so in general, when people talk about Elon time, I mean it sounds like you can't just have a general rule that if you predict that something will be done in six months,
安德森:所以總體而言, 當人們談到“埃隆時間”, 你似乎沒有一個通用的規(guī)則, 即如果你預測某件事情可以在 6 個月內(nèi)完成,
【179】actually what we should imagine is it's going to be a year or it's like two-x or three-x, it depends on the type of prediction.
那么實際上我們應該想這個事情可能需要 1 年, 也就是 2 到 3 倍的時間來完成這件事情 這取決于你所預測的東西,
【180】Some things, I guess, things involving software, AI, whatever, are fundamentally harder to predict than others.
我想在涉及到軟件以及人工智能之類的事情時, 它們從根本上而言就比其他的東西更難預測。
【181】Is there an element that you actually deliberately make aggressive prediction timelines to drive people to be ambitious?
有沒有這樣的一種因素, 你實際上會特意做出一些激進的預測, 從而激發(fā)人們的信心？
【182】Without that, nothing gets done?
而如果不這樣的話,我們將一事無成？
【183】EM: Well, I generally believe, in terms of internal timelines, that we want to set the most aggressive timeline that we can.
馬斯克:我相信一般對于內(nèi)部的時間規(guī)劃而言, 我們希望可以制定最激進的時間規(guī)劃,
【184】Because there's sort of like a law of gaseous expansion where, for schedules, where whatever time you set, it's not going to be less than that.
因為有一個類似于氣體膨脹的規(guī)律。 即對于時間規(guī)劃而言, 不論你設定的時間是什么, 你實際花費的時間一定會超過設定值,
【185】It's very rare that it'll be less than that.
你很少可以提前完成,
【186】But as far as our predictions are concerned, what tends to happen in the media is that they will report all the wrong ones and ignore all the right ones.
但是對于我們的預測來說, 媒體會有一種傾向, 他們會去報道所有錯誤的預測, 而對正確的預測視而不見,
【187】Or, you know, when writing an article about me - I've had a long career in multiple industries.
或者在寫關于我的文章時, 我在很多行業(yè)工作了很長的時間,
【188】If you list my sins, I sound like the worst person on Earth.
如果你列出我所有犯過的錯, 那么我聽起來就是世界上最壞的人,
【189】But if you put those against the things I've done right, it makes much more sense, you know?
但當你把那些事情和我做對的事情放在一起比較, 這一切就變得合理了。
【190】So essentially like, the longer you do anything, the more mistakes that you will make cumulatively.
本質(zhì)上來說,你做一件事情越久, 你積累的錯誤就會越多,
【191】Which, if you sum up those mistakes, will sound like I'm the worst predictor ever.
如果你把那些錯誤加起來, 那么我聽起來就是史上最差的預測者,
【192】But for example, for Tesla vehicle growth, I said I think we'd do 50 percent, and we've done 80 percent.
比如對于特斯拉汽車的增長值。 我說我認為我們會實現(xiàn) 50% 的增長, 但實際上我們增長了 80% 。
【193】CA: Yes.
安德森:是的。
【194】EM: But they don't mention that one.
馬斯克:但媒體不會提到這些東西,
【195】So, I mean, I'm not sure what my exact track record is on predictions.
所以我并不確定我在預測方面具體做的如何,
【196】They're more optimistic than pessimistic, but they're not all optimistic.
我的預測中樂觀多于悲觀, 但并非全都是樂觀的預測,
【197】Some of them are exceeded probably more or later, but they do come true.
這些預測中一些或多或少地超出了預測期限, 但確實都實現(xiàn)了。
【198】It's very rare that they do not come true.
我的預測很少出現(xiàn)沒有實現(xiàn)的情況,
【199】It's sort of like, you know, if there's some radical technology prediction, the point is not that it was a few years late, but that it happened at all.
就比如說, 如果有一些激進的技術方面的預測, 重點并不是技術的實現(xiàn)比預期晚了幾年, 而是它的的確確發(fā)生了,
【200】That's the more important part.
這才是更重要的地方。
【201】CA: So it feels like at some point in the last year, seeing the progress on understanding, the Tesla AI understanding the world around it, led to a kind of, an aha moment at Tesla.
安德森:似乎在去年的某個時候, 當人們看到 特斯拉人工智能對周圍世界的理解能力的進步, 人們對于特斯拉所做的事情恍然大悟,
【202】Because you really surprised people recently when you said probably the most important product development going on at Tesla this year is this robot, Optimus.
因為你們最近做的事情確實讓人大吃一驚。 當你說今年特斯拉最重要的產(chǎn)品研發(fā) 很可能就是這個機器人“擎天柱”。
【203】EM: Yes.
馬斯克:是的。
【204】CA: Many companies out there have tried to put out these robots, they've been working on them for years.
安德森:許多公司都試圖推出機器人, 他們?yōu)榇搜芯苛撕芏嗄?
【205】And so far no one has really cracked it.
而目前為止還沒有人真正可以搞定這項技術,
【206】There's no mass adoption robot in people's homes.
家用機器人還沒有被大規(guī)模采用,
【207】There are some in manufacturing, but I would say, no one's kind of, really cracked it.
一些制造產(chǎn)業(yè)采用了機器人 但我想說的是 還沒有人能夠真正解決機器人這個技術。
【208】Is it something that happened in the development of full self-driving that gave you the confidence to say, "You know what, we could do something special here."
是不是在全自動駕駛的研發(fā)過程中 發(fā)生了什么,讓你有自信說, “我們可以在這個領域做出一些特別的事情?！?/p>
【209】EM: Yeah, exactly.
馬斯克:是的,沒錯。
【210】So, you know, it took me a while to sort of realize that in order to solve self-driving, you really needed to solve real-world AI.
我花了不少時間才意識到 為了解決自動駕駛問題, 你真的需要解決現(xiàn)實世界的人工智能技術,
【211】And at the point of which you solve real-world AI for a car, which is really a robot on four wheels, you can then generalize that to a robot on legs as well.
只有當你在汽車上 實現(xiàn)了現(xiàn)實世界的人工智能技術, 也就是真正做出了一個四輪機器人, 你才可以把這項技術應用到有腿的機器人身上,
【212】The two hard parts I think - like obviously companies like Boston Dynamics have shown that it's possible to make quite compelling, sometimes alarming robots.
我認為這個過程中有兩個難點 之前像波士頓動力這樣的公司 已經(jīng)證明人類可以制造出相當引人注目, 有時卻又有些令人擔憂的機器人。
【213】CA: Right.
安德森:沒錯。
【214】EM: You know, so from a sensors and actuators standpoint, it's certainly been demonstrated by many that it's possible to make a humanoid robot.
馬斯克:從傳感器和執(zhí)行器的角度來說, 許多案例已經(jīng)證明 我們可以做出一個人形機器人。
【215】The things that are currently missing are enough intelligence for the robot to navigate the real world and do useful things without being explicitly instructed.
目前的不足之處就是機器人缺乏足夠的智能 應對現(xiàn)實世界, 并在無明確指示的前提下做有用的事情,
【216】So the missing things are basically real-world intelligence and scaling up manufacturing.
所以目前我們需要的就是現(xiàn)實世界的人工智能, 以及擴大制造業(yè)生產(chǎn)規(guī)模。
【217】Those are two things that Tesla is very good at.
而這兩件事正是特斯拉所擅長的,
【218】And so then we basically just need to design the specialized actuators and sensors that are needed for humanoid robot.
所以我們需要的就只是設計出 人形機器人需要的執(zhí)行器和傳感器,
【219】People have no idea, this is going to be bigger than the car.
人們并不知道這件事情比汽車項目更為龐大。
【220】CA: So let's dig into exactly that.
安德森:那我們不妨深入探究一下這個問題。
【221】I mean, in one way, it's actually an easier problem than full self-driving because instead of an object going along at 60 miles an hour, which if it gets it wrong, someone will die.
在某種程度上, 這個項目比全自動駕駛更容易做。 因為這不是一個時速 60 英里的物體, 一旦出了差錯就會造成人員傷亡,
【222】This is an object that's engineered to only go at what, three or four or five miles an hour.
這個東西在設計出來后, 只能以每小時 3 到 4 或者 5 英里的速度移動。
【223】And so a mistake, there aren't lives at stake.
因此即使機器人出現(xiàn)故障, 也不會有人受到傷害,
【224】There might be embarrassment at stake.
只會造成一些尷尬。
【225】EM: So long as the AI doesn't take it over and murder us in our sleep or something.
馬斯克:只要人工智能不會在我們睡覺 或者在其他時間主動行動謀殺我們就可以。
【226】CA: Right.
安德森:沒錯。
【227】So talk about - I think the first applications you've mentioned are probably going to be manufacturing, but eventually the vision is to have these available for people at home.
說到這里 我記得你提到這個技術的第一個應用 很可能是用于制造業(yè), 但它最終是要人們在家里也可以使用機器人,
【228】If you had a robot that really understood the 3D architecture of your house and knew where every object in that house was or was supposed to be, and could recognize all those objects,
如果你有一個真正了解 你的房子的三維結(jié)構(gòu)的機器人, 并且知道房間內(nèi)的所有物品的位置 或者知道這些物品原本該放在哪里, 并且可以識別出所有的物品。
【229】I mean, that's kind of amazing, isn't it?
這很神奇,不是嗎？
【230】Like the kind of thing that you could ask a robot to do would be what?
那么你可以讓機器人做哪些事情？
【231】Like, tidy up?
比如說,打掃衛(wèi)生？
【232】EM: Yeah, absolutely.
馬斯克:當然。
【233】Make dinner, I guess, mow the lawn.
比如做晚飯,修剪草坪。
【234】CA: Take a cup of tea to grandma and show her family pictures.
安德森:給祖母端一杯茶,給她看一看家庭合照。
【235】EM: Exactly. Take care of my grandmother and make sure - CA: It could obviously recognize everyone in the home.
馬斯克:沒錯,照顧我的祖母,并確保 安德森:它顯然可以識別家中的每一個人,
【236】It could play catch with your kids.
和你的孩子玩躲貓貓。
【237】EM: Yes. I mean, obviously, we need to be careful this doesn't become a dystopian situation.
馬斯克:是的,不過我們需要注意 不要讓這一切變成 反烏托邦式社會里的可怕場景,
【238】I think one of the things that's going to be important is to have a localized ROM chip on the robot that cannot be updated over the air.
我認為有一件很重要的事情, 那就是保證機器人只能使用本地的ROM芯片, 不能使其可以通過無線方式更新。
【239】Where if you, for example, were to say, "Stop, stop, stop,"
比如,當你說:“停,停,?！?
【240】if anyone said that, then the robot would stop, you know, type of thing.
或者只要任何人說出這句話, 那這個機器人就該停下來 其他情況也是如此,
【241】And that's not updatable remotely.
這種功能不可以通過遠程更新改變。
【242】I think it's going to be important to have safety features like that.
我認為這樣的安全功能尤為重要。
【243】CA: Yeah, that sounds wise.
安德森:是的,這個點子很明智。
【244】EM: And I do think there should be a regulatory agency for AI.
馬斯克:我認為應該 有一個人工智能的監(jiān)管機構(gòu),
【245】I've said that for many years.
我已經(jīng)這樣說了很多年了,
【246】I don't love being regulated, but I think this is an important thing for public safety.
我也并不喜歡被監(jiān)管, 但我認為這對安全十分重要。
【247】CA: Let's come back to that.
安德森:讓我們再談談這個問題,
【248】But I don't think many people have really sort of taken seriously the notion of, you know, a robot at home.
但我覺得許多人都沒有認真對待這個事情, 正如你所說的,對于家庭機器人這個事情。
【249】I mean, at the start of the computing revolution, Bill Gates said there's going to be a computer in every home.
在計算機革命開始, 比爾蓋茨說每個家庭都會有一臺電腦,
【250】And people at the time said, yeah, whatever, who would even want that.
但當時的人們說,誰會用這種玩意兒。
【251】Do you think there will be basically like in, say, 2050 or whatever, like a robot in most homes, is what there will be, and people will love them and count on them?
你認為到 2050 年之后,或者任何時候, 大多數(shù)的家庭會配備機器人嗎？ 而且人們會喜歡并且依賴這些機器人？
【252】You'll have your own butler basically.
這樣你就有了自己的管家。
【253】EM: Yeah, you'll have your sort of buddy robot probably, yeah.
馬斯克:你會有你的機器人伙伴。
【254】CA: I mean, how much of a buddy?
安德森:多大程度上的伙伴？
【255】How many applications have you thought, you know, can you have a romantic partner, a sex partner?
你認為會有多少種應用形式呢？ 你可以有一個戀人,性伴？
【256】EM: It's probably inevitable.
馬斯克:這個趨勢恐怕不可避免,
【257】I mean, I did promise the internet that I'd make catgirls.
我確實向網(wǎng)民承諾過我會生產(chǎn)貓女郎,
【258】We could make a robot catgirl.
我們可以生產(chǎn)機器人貓女郎。
【259】CA: Be careful what you promise the internet.
安德森:你對網(wǎng)民 做出承諾的時候還是小心為妙。
【260】EM: So, yeah, I guess it'll be whatever people want really, you know.
馬斯克:我想人們可以有各種各樣的機器人。
【261】CA: What sort of timeline should we be thinking about of the first models that are actually made and sold?
安德森:我們什么時候可以等來, 第一批真正生產(chǎn)和銷的機器人？
【262】EM: Well, you know, the first units that we intend to make are for jobs that are dangerous, boring, repetitive, and things that people don't want to do.
馬斯克:我們打算制造的第一批機器人 是為了從事危險的、無聊的、重復的工作, 這些都是人們不愿意做的事情。
【263】And, you know, I think we'll have like an interesting prototype sometime this year.
我們會做出一個有趣的原型,
【264】We might have something useful next year, but I think quite likely within at least two years.
可能在明年我們就能做出一些有用的產(chǎn)品, 但我想很可能至少兩年之內(nèi),
【265】And then we'll see rapid growth year over year of the usefulness of the humanoid robots and decrease in cost and scaling up production.
我們就會看到 人形機器人的實用性將連年遞增, 并且成本降低、生產(chǎn)規(guī)模擴大。
【266】CA: Initially just selling to businesses, or when do you picture you'll start selling them where you can buy your parents one for Christmas or something?
安德森:最初這些機器人只向企業(yè)銷售, 你認為什么時候你可以向普通人銷售, 這樣你就可以給你的父母或者在其他節(jié)日 買一個機器人作禮物？
【267】EM: I'd say in less than ten years.
馬斯克:我想應該用不了十年的時間。
【268】CA: Help me on the economics of this.
安德森:請幫我分析一下這其中的經(jīng)濟問題,
【269】So what do you picture the cost of one of these being?
你認為這些機器人的造價會是多少？
【270】EM: Well, I think the cost is actually not going to be crazy high.
馬斯克:我想應該不會特別高,
【271】Like less than a car.
可能會比一輛車的造價還低,
【272】Initially, things will be expensive because it'll be a new technology at low production volume.
剛開始的時候我想可能會比較昂貴, 因為這是一項新的技術, 產(chǎn)量也很低,
【273】The complexity and cost of a car is greater than that of a humanoid robot.
而汽車的復雜程度 以及造價都比人形機器人的高,
【274】So I would expect that it's going to be less than a car, or at least equivalent to a cheap car.
所以我預計機器人的造價會比汽車更低, 或者至少與一輛廉價車相當,
【275】CA: So even if it starts at 50k, within a few years, it's down to 20k or lower or whatever.
安德森:所以即使最初它會花費 5 萬美元, 但是幾年后, 它就會降到 2 萬甚至更低的價格,
【276】And maybe for home they'll get much cheaper still.
家用型機器人甚至有可能更便宜,
【277】But think about the economics of this.
但是關于這其中的經(jīng)濟問題,
【278】If you can replace a $30,000,
如果你可以替代掉一名年薪 3 萬美元,
【279】$40,000-a-year worker, which you have to pay every year, with a one-time payment of $25,000 for a robot that can work longer hours, a pretty rapid replacement of certain types of jobs.
或者 4 萬美元的工人, 而且你必須每年都支付他們工資, 而現(xiàn)在只要一次性支付 2 萬 5 千美元, 就可以買到一個可以工作更久的機器人。 許多類型的工作都會被迅速取代,
【280】How worried should the world be about that?
那么全世界對此應該展現(xiàn)出何等的擔憂？
【281】EM: I wouldn't worry about the sort of, putting people out of a job thing.
馬斯克:我不會擔心這種人們失去工作的事情,
【282】I think we're actually going to have, and already do have, a massive shortage of labor.
我認為我們會有而且實際上已經(jīng)面臨著 大規(guī)模的勞動力短缺的問題。
【283】So I think we will have ...
所以我認為我們會……
【284】Not people out of work, but actually still a shortage labor even in the future.
人們并不會找不到工作, 因為即使是在未來也會面臨勞動力短缺的問題,
【285】But this really will be a world of abundance.
但這確實會讓世界的資源豐富起來,
【286】Any goods and services will be available to anyone who wants them.
每個人都可以享受任何商品和服務,
【287】It'll be so cheap to have goods and services, it will be ridiculous.
商品和服務將 會變得十分廉價,便宜到荒謬的程度。
【288】CA: I'm presuming it should be possible to imagine a bunch of goods and services that can't profitably be made now but could be made in that world, courtesy of legions of robots.
安德森:我想現(xiàn)在很多難以盈利的商品和服務 在那樣的世界中, 都可以借助大量的機器人來實現(xiàn)。
【289】EM: Yeah.
馬斯克:是的。
【290】It will be a world of abundance.
這樣的世界資源富足
【291】The only scarcity that will exist in the future is that which we decide to create ourselves as humans.
在未來唯一可能缺少的東西, 可能就是我們作為人類自己創(chuàng)造的東西。
【292】CA: OK.
安德森:好的。
【293】So AI is allowing us to imagine a differently powered economy that will create this abundance.
所以人工智能讓我們 可以用一種不同的方式發(fā)展經(jīng)濟, 并以此創(chuàng)造大量的資源,
【294】What are you most worried about going wrong?
對此,你最擔心它會在什么地方上出錯？
【295】EM: Well, like I said, AI and robotics will bring out what might be termed the age of abundance.
馬斯克:正如我所說,人工智能和機器人 將為我們帶來所謂的“富足的時代”,
【296】Other people have used this word, and that this is my prediction: it will be an age of abundance for everyone.
其他人也用過這個詞。 我的預言是: 這將是一個人人都會生活富足的時代,
【297】But I guess there's ...
但我想
【298】The dangers would be the artificial general intelligence or digital superintelligence decouples from a collective human will and goes in the direction that for some reason we don't like.
危險會來自于強人工智能, 以及數(shù)字超級智能與人類意志脫鉤, 并且由于某種原因向我們討厭的方向發(fā)展。
【299】Whatever direction it might go.
不論它朝什么方向發(fā)展,
【300】You know, that's sort of the idea behind Neuralink, is to try to more tightly couple collective human world to digital superintelligence.
Neuralink項目就是為了解決這個問題, 即嘗試著將人類世界更緊密地 與數(shù)字超級智能結(jié)合起來。
【301】And also along the way solve a lot of brain injuries and spinal injuries and that kind of thing.
在這一過程中解決許多腦損傷、脊柱損傷 以及其他相關的問題,
【302】So even if it doesn't succeed in the greater goal, I think it will succeed in the goal of alleviating brain and spine damage.
因此即使這個更大的目標沒有實現(xiàn), 我認為它也可以成功實現(xiàn) 減輕大腦、脊椎損傷這一目標。
【303】CA: So the spirit there is that if we're going to make these AIs that are so vastly intelligent, we ought to be wired directly to them so that we ourselves can have those superpowers more directly.
安德森:所以這個項目的理念就是 如果我們要打造這些高智慧的人工智能, 那么我們就應該直接與它們相連, 這樣我們就可以直接擁有這些超能力,
【304】But that doesn't seem to avoid the risk that those superpowers might ...
但這似乎并不能避免這些超能力的風險,
【305】turn ugly in unintended ways.
并且會以意想不到的方式惡化。
【306】EM: I think it's a risk, I agree.
馬斯克:同意,我覺得這是一個風險。
【307】I'm not saying that I have some certain answer to that risk.
我并不是說我對于 這種風險已經(jīng)有了確定的答案,
【308】I'm just saying like maybe one of the things that would be good for ensuring that the future is one that we want is to more tightly couple the collective human world to digital intelligence.
我只是說, 也許有一件我們可以做的事情, 可以確保我們有一個想要的未來, 那就是更加緊密地 將人類世界與數(shù)字智能結(jié)合起來。
【309】The issue that we face here is that we are already a cyborg, if you think about it.
我們面對的問題是: 我們已經(jīng)是一個半機械人了, 你想一想
【310】The computers are an extension of ourselves.
計算機就是我們自身的延伸,
【311】And when we die, we have, like, a digital ghost.
我們死后,我們有一個數(shù)字化的幽靈,
【312】You know, all of our text messages and social media, emails.
也就是我們所有的短信、社交媒體、電子郵件。
【313】And it's quite eerie actually, when someone dies but everything online is still there.
這實際上很可怕, 當一個人死后, 你網(wǎng)上的一切東西都還留著,
【314】But you say like, what's the limitation?
但你說它的限制是什么？
【315】What is it that inhibits a human-machine symbiosis?
是什么抑制了人機共生？
【316】It's the data rate.
是數(shù)據(jù)速率。
【317】When you communicate, especially with a phone, you're moving your thumbs very slowly.
當你在進行交流時,特別是在使用電話時, 你的拇指動起來很慢,
【318】So you're like moving your two little meat sticks at a rate that's maybe 10 bits per second, optimistically, 100 bits per second.
你就像在移動你的兩根小肉棒, 速率可能是每秒 10 比特, 樂觀地說,是每秒 100 比特,
【319】And computers are communicating at the gigabyte level and beyond.
而計算機則以十億字節(jié) 甚至更高的速度進行通信。
【320】CA: Have you seen evidence that the technology is actually working, that you've got a richer, sort of, higher bandwidth connection, if you like, between like external electronics and a brain than has been possible before?
安德森:你有沒有這種技術正在發(fā)揮作用的證據(jù), 使你獲得了更多的更高帶寬的連接, 從而使得大腦與外部電子設備的連接, 比以前具有更大的可能性？
【321】EM: Yeah.
馬斯克:有的。
【322】I mean, the fundamental principles of reading neurons, sort of doing read-write on neurons with tiny electrodes, have been demonstrated for decades.
讀取神經(jīng)元的基本原理, 用微小的電極對神經(jīng)元進行讀寫, 幾十年前就已經(jīng)證實可行,
【323】So it's not like the concept is new.
所以這并不是什么新概念,
【324】The problem is that there is no product that works well that you can go and buy.
可問題是沒有一種產(chǎn)品可以取得很好的效果, 你根本購買不到好的產(chǎn)品,
【325】So it's all sort of, in research labs.
這些都是在實驗室里才能實現(xiàn),
【326】And it's like some cords sticking out of your head.
一些電線連在你的頭上。
【327】And it's quite gruesome, and it's really ...
這很可怕,而且真的……
【328】There's no good product that actually does a good job and is high-bandwidth and safe and something actually that you could buy and would want to buy.
沒有一款運行效果不錯, 同時帶寬還高,使用安全, 你可以買的并且想買的產(chǎn)品,
【329】But the way to think of the Neuralink device is kind of like a Fitbit or an Apple Watch.
但對于Neuralink設備的看待方式, 有點像Fitbit或蘋果手表,
【330】That's where we take out sort of a small section of skull about the size of a quarter, replace that with what, in many ways really is very much like a Fitbit, Apple Watch or some kind of smart watch thing.
我們會取下一小塊頭骨, 大概是25美分硬幣的大小, 之后用這個設備代替這塊頭骨, 在很多方面,這個設備都很像Fitbit和蘋果手表, 或者其他智能手表之類的設備,
【331】But with tiny, tiny wires, very, very tiny wires.
但是是用很細很細的電線, 非常非常細小的電線。
【332】Wires so tiny, it's hard to even see them.
電線真的很細小,你甚至很難看到它們,
【333】And it's very important to have very tiny wires so that when they're implanted, they don't damage the brain.
這種細線非常重要, 這樣當它們被植入時就不會對大腦造成損傷。
【334】CA: How far are you from putting these into humans?
安德森:你們還需要多久可以把它植入人體？
【335】EM: Well, we have put in our FDA application to aspirationally do the first human implant this year.
馬斯克:我們已經(jīng) 向食品與藥品管理署提交了申請, 我們非常希望今年進行第一次人體植入手術。
【336】CA: The first uses will be for neurological injuries of different kinds.
安德森:第一個用途是修復不同程度的腦損傷,
【337】But rolling the clock forward and imagining when people are actually using these for their own enhancement, let's say, and for the enhancement of the world, how clear are you in your mind as to what it will feel like to have one of these inside your head?
讓我們展望一下未來, 想象一下人們會在什么時候使用這些設備, 來提升他們自己, 讓世界進步, 對于這個事情, 當你的腦袋中有這樣的東西會有什么感覺呢？
【338】EM: Well, I do want to emphasize we're at an early stage.
馬斯克:我想強調(diào)的是我們目前還在早期階段,
【339】And so it really will be many years before we have anything approximating a high-bandwidth neural interface that allows for AI-human symbiosis.
所以我們真的還需要很多年 才能做出類似于高帶寬腦機接口的設備, 從而實現(xiàn)人工智能與人類共生,
【340】For many years, we will just be solving brain injuries and spinal injuries.
我們會花很多年 來研究腦損傷和脊髓損傷的問題。
【341】For probably a decade.
大概十年吧,
【342】This is not something that will suddenly one day it will have this incredible sort of whole brain interface.
并不會突然在某一天, 這種無比神奇的腦機接口就會突然出現(xiàn),
【343】It's going to be, like I said, at least a decade of really just solving brain injuries and spinal injuries.
就像我說的 我們至少要花十年的時間來解決 腦損傷和脊柱損傷的問題。
【344】And really, I think you can solve a very wide range of brain injuries, including severe depression, morbid obesity, sleep, potentially schizophrenia, like, a lot of things that cause great stress to people.
我認為可以解決很多種類的腦損傷, 包括重度抑郁、肥胖癥、一些睡眠問題, 潛在的精神分裂癥, 以及很多對人造成巨大壓力的病癥,
【345】Restoring memory in older people.
還可以恢復老年人的記憶。
【346】CA: If you can pull that off, that's the app I will sign up for.
安德森:如果你能做出這個東西, 我就會注冊這個應用。
【347】EM: Absolutely.
馬斯克:當然。
【348】CA: Please hurry. (Laughs) EM: I mean, the emails that we get at Neuralink are heartbreaking.
安德森:請盡快。 （笑聲） 馬斯克:Neuralink項目收到的郵件令人心碎,
【349】I mean, they'll send us just tragic, you know, where someone was sort of, in the prime of life and they had an accident on a motorcycle and someone who's 25, you know, can't even feed themselves.
人們會發(fā)來凄慘的故事, 有人正值壯年之際, 卻不幸在騎摩托車時發(fā)生了車禍, 有一個25歲的人甚至不能養(yǎng)活自己,
【350】And this is something we could fix.
我們可以解決這樣的問題。
【351】CA: But you have said that AI is one of the things you're most worried about and that Neuralink may be one of the ways where we can keep abreast of it.
安德森:但你曾說 人工智能是你最擔心的事情之一, Nuralink項目可能是解決這個問題的一條出路, 從而使我們可以跟上人工智能發(fā)展的步伐。
【352】EM: Yeah, there's the short-term thing, which I think is helpful on an individual human level with injuries.
馬斯克:是的,短期來看, 我認為這個項目有助于受傷的人類個體恢復,
【353】And then the long-term thing is an attempt to address the civilizational risk of AI by bringing digital intelligence and biological intelligence closer together.
而從長期來看, 它會嘗試著解決人工智能帶給人類文明的風險, 即通過將數(shù)字智能, 與生物智能更緊密地結(jié)合在一起。
【354】I mean, if you think of how the brain works today, there are really two layers to the brain.
你想一想現(xiàn)今大腦的工作機制, 大腦實際上有兩層,
【355】There's the limbic system and the cortex.
即大腦邊緣系統(tǒng)和大腦皮層。
【356】You've got the kind of, animal brain where - it's kind of like the fun part, really.
你有一種動物的大腦, 這個東西真的很有意思。
【357】CA: It's where most of Twitter operates, by the way.
安德森:順便說一句, 這里也是產(chǎn)出推文的地方,
【358】EM: I think Tim Urban said, we're like somebody, you know, stuck a computer on a monkey.
馬斯克:我記得Tim Urban說, 我們?nèi)祟惥拖癜央娔X塞到了猴子身上,
【359】You know, so we're like, if you gave a monkey a computer, that's our cortex.
所以我們就像……如果你給猴子一臺電腦, 這個電腦就是我們的大腦皮層,
【360】But we still have a lot of monkey instincts.
但我們依然還有許多猴子的本能,
【361】Which we then try to rationalize as, no, it's not a monkey instinct.
我們會試著把一些行為合理化 否認這不是猴子的本能,
【362】It's something more important than that.
而是比它更重要的事情,
【363】But it's often just really a monkey instinct.
但這常常真的是猴子的本能舉動。
【364】We're just monkeys with a computer stuck in our brain.
我們只是腦子里裝著電腦的猴子,
【365】But even though the cortex is sort of the smart, or the intelligent part of the brain, the thinking part of the brain,
即使大腦皮層是 大腦中聰明或者說是智能的部分, 是大腦中思考的區(qū)域,
【366】I've not yet met anyone who wants to delete their limbic system or their cortex.
我還沒有見過 有人想要去掉他們的大腦邊緣系統(tǒng), 或者是他們的大腦皮層。
【367】They're quite happy having both.
他們對于同時擁有兩者都非常滿意,
【368】Everyone wants both parts of their brain.
每個人都想要大腦中的兩個部分,
【369】And people really want their phones and their computers, which are really the tertiary, the third part of your intelligence.
人們真的想要他們的手機和電腦, 而這實際上是你智力的第三部分。
【370】It's just that it's ...
它就是……
【371】Like the bandwidth, the rate of communication with that tertiary layer is slow.
就像寬帶, 與第三層的通信速率很慢,
【372】And it's just a very tiny straw to this tertiary layer.
這只是第三層的一根細小的管子,
【373】And we want to make that tiny straw a big highway.
我們想把這個小管子變成一條大公路,
【374】And I'm definitely not saying that this is going to solve everything.
我絕不是說這會解決所有的問題,
【375】Or this is you know, it's the only thing - it's something that might be helpful.
或者說這是唯一的…… 這個東西可能會有所幫助,
【376】And worst-case scenario, I think we solve some important brain injury, spinal injury issues, and that's still a great outcome.
在最壞的情況下, 我想我們解決了一些重要的腦損傷問題, 脊椎損傷問題,那么這依然是一個很好的結(jié)果。
【377】CA: Best-case scenario, we may discover new human possibility, telepathy, you've spoken of, in a way, a connection with a loved one, you know, full memory and much faster thought processing maybe.
安德森:在最好的情況下, 我們可能發(fā)現(xiàn) 人類發(fā)展新的可能性,實現(xiàn)心靈感應。 你說過,從某種程度上,和你所愛之人相連, 擁有全部的記憶和更快的思維處理,
【378】All these things.
這一切的一切,
【379】It's very cool.
都很酷。
【380】If AI were to take down Earth, we need a plan B.
如果人工智能要摧毀地球, 我們需要一個備用計劃。
【381】Let's shift our attention to space.
讓我們把注意力轉(zhuǎn)移到太空。
【382】We spoke last time at TED about reusability, and you had just demonstrated that spectacularly for the first time.
上次在TED我們談到了可復用性, 而你也已經(jīng)首次展示了這壯觀的一幕。
【383】Since then, you've gone on to build this monster rocket, Starship, which kind of changes the rules of the game in spectacular ways.
從那之后,你繼續(xù)打造這個巨大的火箭 星艦, 這極大改變了這個領域的游戲規(guī)則,
【384】Tell us about Starship.
和我們講一講星艦吧。
【385】EM: Starship is extremely fundamental.
馬斯克:星艦非常重要,
【386】So the holy grail of rocketry or space transport is full and rapid reusability.
在太空運輸中人們一直在追求的 就是快速及完全可復用性,
【387】This has never been achieved.
這從來都沒有實現(xiàn)過。
【388】The closest that anything has come is our Falcon 9 rocket, where we are able to recover the first stage, the boost stage, which is probably about 60 percent of the cost of the vehicle of the whole launch, maybe 70 percent.
最接近這一目標的是我們的獵鷹9號火箭, 我們可以回收第一級推進火箭, 大概是航天器成本的60%, 對于整個發(fā)射過程的成本占到大約70%。
【389】And we've now done that over a hundred times.
我們已經(jīng)成功實現(xiàn)了一百多次,
