文章概括：這篇文章批評(píng)了富裕國家的財(cái)政政策，認(rèn)為其過于魯莽和不負(fù)責(zé)任。文章指出，高通脹和低失業(yè)應(yīng)該需要更加嚴(yán)格的預(yù)算控制，而不是進(jìn)一步放寬政府支出。作者對(duì)富裕國家政府的赤字和債務(wù)的增長表示關(guān)切，并指出高利率可能導(dǎo)致金融不穩(wěn)定和對(duì)政府預(yù)算的負(fù)面影響。然而，政界人士未能采取有效的措施來改變這種局面，他們對(duì)于財(cái)政紀(jì)律的努力并不夠。文章指出，人口老齡化、凈零碳排放和國防開支的需求對(duì)國家來說是重要的，但政府要滿足這些需求，就需要考慮提高稅收或接受最終導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹的后果。總體而言，文章呼吁政府在財(cái)政政策上更加謹(jǐn)慎和負(fù)責(zé)任。

Leaders?|?Recklessly red

社論 | 魯莽的左翼政策

Fiscal policy in the rich world is mind-bogglingly reckless

富裕世界的財(cái)政政策令人難以置信地魯莽

High inflation and low unemployment require tighter budgets not looser ones

高通脹和低失業(yè)率需要緊縮預(yù)算，而不是放松

image: AP

圖像：AP

Jun 14th 2023

2023年6月14日

The?dire?state of rich-world governments’ budgets would make even the luxury-loving Madame Bovary wince. America has avoided a?debt-ceiling disaster, but in the year to May the federal government’s revenue fell short of its spending by $2.1trn, or 8.1% of?GDP. In the European Union politicians are finding that rising interest rates mean the debts financing much of the bloc’s €800bn ($865bn) in post-pandemic recovery spending threaten to drain the common budget.?Japan’s?government recently omitted from its economic-policy framework a timetable for balancing its primary budget, which excludes interest payments but is still in the red by more than 6% of?GDP. And on June 13th Britain’s cost of borrowing for two years rose above the levels reached after its calamitous “mini-budget” in September.

富裕國家政府預(yù)算的可怕狀態(tài)，甚至讓嗜好奢侈的包法利夫人也會(huì)皺起眉頭。美國避免了債務(wù)上限的災(zāi)難，但在截至5月的一年里，聯(lián)邦政府的稅收與支出相比相差2.1萬億美元，占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的8.1%。在歐盟，政界人士發(fā)現(xiàn)不斷上升的利率意味著資助歐盟8000億歐元（8650億美元）的后疫情恢復(fù)支出的債務(wù)有可能耗盡公共預(yù)算。日本政府最近在其經(jīng)濟(jì)政策框架中省略了平衡主要預(yù)算的時(shí)間表，該預(yù)算不包括利息支付，但仍有超過國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值6%的赤字。而在6月13日，英國的借款成本為兩年期以上，超過了其在9月份災(zāi)難性的“迷你預(yù)算政策”之后的水平。

Global fiscal policy does not only look reckless—it is also unsuited to today’s economic circumstances. High inflation and low unemployment mean the world needs tight policy, not loose. On June 14th the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady while it waited for more signals about the health of the economy. But with underlying inflation above 5%, few believe it will stand pat for long. As we published this leader, the?European Central Bank?was poised to raise interest rates again. The Bank of England will almost certainly follow on June 22nd; with nominal pay rising at an annual rate of 6.5%, Britain is uniquely exposed to the threat of a?wage-price spiral.

全球財(cái)政政策不僅看起來魯莽，而且也不適合當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境。高通脹和低失業(yè)意味著世界需要緊縮的政策，而不是放松的政策。在我們發(fā)表這篇社論文章的同時(shí)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在等待更多關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)健康狀況的信號(hào)時(shí)保持利率穩(wěn)定。但由于潛在通脹率超過5%，很少有人相信它會(huì)長期保持不變。正如我們?cè)谶@篇社論文章發(fā)表之時(shí)，歐洲央行正準(zhǔn)備再次提高利率。英格蘭銀行幾乎可以肯定會(huì)在6月22日跟進(jìn)；由于名義工資以每年6.5%的速度上漲，英國獨(dú)特地面臨著工資-物價(jià)螺旋上升的威脅。

Politicians’ failure to get the memo is astonishing. America’s deficit has previously exceeded 6% only in periods of turmoil: during the second world war, after the global financial crisis and, most recently, following covid-19 lockdowns. Today no such disaster makes vast emergency spending necessary. Even the energy crisis in Europe that resulted from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is in abeyance. The main effect of all this lavish borrowing has been to stimulate economies, forcing interest rates higher than they would otherwise need to go.

政界人士對(duì)此置若罔聞的行為令人震驚。美國的赤字以前只在動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期超過6%：包括二戰(zhàn)期間、全球金融危機(jī)結(jié)束后以及最近的新冠疫情結(jié)束后。今天，并沒有任何災(zāi)難使龐大的緊急支出變得必要。即使是由俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭引起的歐洲能源危機(jī)也已經(jīng)暫時(shí)解除。這種奢侈借貸的主要影響是刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)，迫使利率上升到原本不必要的水平。

Higher interest rates?make financial instability more likely. They also affect government budgets. For every one-percentage-point rise in rates, the British government’s debt-service costs rise by 0.5% of?GDP?within a year. One reason America faces a revenue shortfall is that the Fed’s profits, which flow into the Treasury’s coffers, have turned to losses as the central bank has had to pay more interest on the money it created to buy bonds during the stimulus years. These feedback effects matter. Monetary policy controls inflation only if budgets are prudent, which becomes less likely as interest bills mount.

更高的利率會(huì)增加金融不穩(wěn)定性。它們也會(huì)影響政府預(yù)算。利率每上升一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，英國政府的債務(wù)服務(wù)成本在一年內(nèi)就會(huì)增加國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的0.5%。美國面臨稅收不足的一個(gè)原因是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的利潤流入財(cái)政部的資金已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)為虧損，因?yàn)樵诖碳つ攴萜陂g，央行不得不支付更多的利息來購買債券。這些反饋效應(yīng)是重要的。只有在預(yù)算審慎的情況下，貨幣政策才能控制通脹，而隨著利息支出的增加，這種可能性變得越來越小。

Yet politicians’ efforts to change course have been paltry. Even after the “Fiscal Responsibility Act”, which lifted America’s debt ceiling and trimmed spending, net public debt is forecast to rise from 98% of?GDP?today to 115% by 2033. The British government, having planned to tighten its belt last year, now reportedly hopes to cut taxes. The euro zone looks solid enough as a whole but many of its member states are fragile. At the interest rates now priced in—and they could yet rise further—bringing down Italy’s already huge debt-to-GDP?ratio at the glacial pace of one point per year over several decades probably requires surpluses before interest payments of 2.4% of?GDP.

然而，政界人士改變事情走向的努力微不足道。即使在解除了美國債務(wù)上限并削減支出的“財(cái)政責(zé)任法案”之后，凈公共債務(wù)預(yù)計(jì)從今天的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值98%上升到2033年的115%。據(jù)報(bào)道，英國政府原本計(jì)劃在去年收緊腰帶，現(xiàn)在卻希望減稅。整個(gè)歐元區(qū)整體看起來足夠穩(wěn)定，但其許多成員國卻很脆弱。考慮到目前的利率以及進(jìn)一步上升的可能性，逐漸降低意大利的巨額債務(wù)與GDP比率需要每年僅減少一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，并持續(xù)數(shù)十年。這可能要求產(chǎn)生相當(dāng)于國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值2.4%的盈余，用于支付利息之前的支出。

All the while, pension and health-care systems face the strain of an ageing population; reaching net-zero carbon emissions requires public investments; and defence spending needs to rise to counter the threat posed by autocracies. These demands on the state are not unworthy. But if governments want to satisfy them, they will need to raise taxes to do so—or accept the eventual inflationary consequences.?

與此同時(shí)，養(yǎng)老金和醫(yī)療保健系統(tǒng)面臨著人口老齡化帶來的壓力；實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零碳排放需要公共投資；而國防開支也需要增加以應(yīng)對(duì)專制國家?guī)淼耐{。這些對(duì)國家的需求并非毫無價(jià)值。但如果政府希望滿足這些需求，它們將需要通過提高稅收來實(shí)現(xiàn)，否則就必須接受最終的通貨膨脹后果。