Weapons of mass disruption

大規(guī)模殺傷性武器

America is aggressively deploying a new economic arsenal to assert its power. That is counterproductive—and dangerous

美國正在積極部署新的經(jīng)濟武器，以彰顯其實力。這定會是達不到預(yù)期的，也是危險的

詞匯

Arsenal/兵工廠；軍械庫；武器

Counterproductive/反生產(chǎn)的；使達不到預(yù)期目標的

WHEN DONALD TRUMP arrived in the Oval Office he promised to restore America’s might. His method has turned out to be a wholesale weaponisation of economic tools. The world can now see the awesome force that a superpower can project when it is unconstrained by rules or allies. On May 30th the president threatened crippling tariffs on Mexico after a row over migration. Markets reeled, and a Mexican delegation rushed to Washington to sue for peace. A day later preferential trading rules for India were cancelled. Its usually macho government did not put up a fight and promised to preserve “strong ties”. China faces a ratcheting up of tariffs soon, and its tech giant, Huawei, has been severed from its American suppliers. The country’s autocratic leaders are enraged, but on June 2nd they insisted they still seek “dialogue and consultation”. A tighter embargo on Iran, imposed over European objections, is strangling its economy.

當唐納德?特朗普(DONALD TRUMP)入主橢圓形辦公室時，他承諾恢復(fù)美國的實力。事實證明，他的方法是將經(jīng)濟工具大規(guī)模武器化。世界現(xiàn)在可以看到一個超級大國在不受規(guī)則或盟友約束的情況下所能展現(xiàn)出的驚人力量。5月30日，總統(tǒng)威脅要針對墨西哥大規(guī)模移民事件，對其征收懲罰性關(guān)稅。市場動蕩不安，一個墨西哥代表團趕赴華盛頓要求和平。緊接著的一天后，印度的優(yōu)惠貿(mào)易政策被取消。這個向來剛強的政府沒有反抗，并承諾保持“牢固的關(guān)系”。（）很快將面臨關(guān)稅上調(diào)，其科技巨頭Huawei也被切斷了與美國供應(yīng)商的聯(lián)系。這個國家()的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人被激怒了，但是在6月2日,他們堅持他們?nèi)匀粫で蟆皩υ捄蛥f(xié)商”。不顧歐洲的反對，美國還對對伊朗實施了更嚴格的禁運，這扼殺了伊朗的經(jīng)濟。

詞匯

Wholesale/批發(fā)的；大規(guī)模的

Weaponization/武器化；武器研制

Crippling/造成嚴重后果的

Tariff/關(guān)稅表；收費表

Reel/蹣跚；舉步為艱

Delegation/代表團；授權(quán)；委托

Preferential/優(yōu)先的；選擇的；特惠的

Macho/大男子氣概的

sever from/割斷；切下

autocratic/專制的；獨裁的，專橫的

embargo/禁令；禁止；封港令

President Trump must view this scene with satisfaction. Nobody takes America for granted any more. Enemies and friends know that it is prepared to unleash an economic arsenal to protect its national interest. America is deploying new tactics—poker-style brinkmanship—and new weapons that exploit its role as the nerve centre of the global economy to block the free flow of goods, data, ideas and money across borders. This pumped-up vision of a 21st-century superpower may be seductive for some. But it could spark a crisis, and it is eroding America’s most valuable asset—its legitimacy.

特朗普總統(tǒng)應(yīng)當是滿意地看到這一幕。沒有人再認為美國(一枝獨大)是理所當然的了。敵人和朋友都知道，()準備動用經(jīng)濟武器來保護國家利益。美國正在部署新的策略——撲克式的邊緣政策——以及利用其作為全球經(jīng)濟神經(jīng)中樞的角色來阻止商品、數(shù)據(jù)、思想和資金跨境自由流動的新武器。對一些人來說，這種作法對21世紀超級大國的雄心壯志可能是誘人的。但它可能引發(fā)一場危機，并正在侵蝕美國最寶貴的資產(chǎn)——其合法性。

詞匯

Tactics/策略；戰(zhàn)術(shù)；用兵學(xué)

Brinkmanship/邊緣政策；緊急政策，外交冒險政策

Seductive/有魅力的；性感的；引人注意的

Erode/侵蝕；磨損

legitimacy./ 合法；合理；正統(tǒng)

You might think that America’s clout comes from its 11 aircraft-carriers, 6,500 nuclear warheads or its anchor role in the IMF. But it is also the central node in the network that underpins globalisation. This mesh of firms, ideas and standards reflects and magnifies American prowess. Though it includes goods traded through supply chains, it is mainly intangible. America controls or hosts over 50% of the world’s cross-border bandwidth, venture capital, phone-operating systems, top universities and fund-management assets. Some 88% of currency trades use greenbacks. Across the planet it is normal to use a Visa card, invoice exports in dollars, sleep beside a device with a Qualcomm chip, watch Netflix and work for a firm that BlackRock invests in.

你可能認為美國的影響力來自其11艘航空母艦、6500枚核彈頭或其在國際貨幣基金組織中的核心角色。但它也是支撐全球化的網(wǎng)絡(luò)的中心節(jié)點。這種由公司、理念和標準組成的網(wǎng)絡(luò)反映并放大了美國的實力。雖然它包括通過供應(yīng)鏈交易的商品，但主要是無形的。美國控制或擁有全球超過50%的跨境帶寬、風險資本、電話操作系統(tǒng)、頂尖大學(xué)和基金管理資產(chǎn)。

大約88%的外匯交易使用美元。在全球范圍內(nèi)，使用Visa卡、用美元******、睡在裝有高通(Qualcomm)芯片的設(shè)備旁、看Netflix，以及為貝萊德(BlackRock)投資的一家公司工作，這些都很正常。

詞匯

Clout/影響力；勢力

Warhead/彈頭

IMF/國際貨幣基金組織（international monetary fund）

Underpin/鞏固；支持

Magnify/放大；贊美；夸大

Greenback/美鈔

Foreigners accept all this because, on balance, it makes them better off. They may not set the rules of the game, but they get access to American markets and fair treatment alongside American firms. Globalisation and technology have made the network more powerful although America’s share of world GDP has fallen, from 38% in 1969 to 24% now. China cannot yet compete, even though its economy is approaching America’s in size.

外國人接受這一切，因為總的來說，這讓他們過得更好。他們可能不會制定游戲規(guī)則，但他們可以進入美國市場，與美國公司一起得到公平待遇。盡管美國在全球GDP中所占的份額從1969年的38%下降到現(xiàn)在的24%，但全球化和技術(shù)使網(wǎng)絡(luò)更加強大。盡管()的經(jīng)濟規(guī)模正在接近美國，但她仍無法與之競爭。

?

Despite this, Mr Trump and his advisers are convinced that the world order is rigged against America, pointing to its rust-belt and its trade deficit. And rather than mimic the relatively restrained tactics of the last trade conflict, with Japan in the 1980s, they have redefined how economic nationalism works.

盡管如此，特朗普和他的顧問們相信，世界秩序受到了操縱，不利于美國，原因是美國的“銹帶”和貿(mào)易逆差。他們沒有效仿上世紀80年代與日本貿(mào)易沖突中相對克制的策略，而是重新定義了經(jīng)濟民族主義的運作方式。

詞匯

Rig/操縱

rust-belt/鐵銹地帶（指從前工業(yè)繁盛今已衰落的發(fā)達國家一些地區(qū)）

deficit./ 赤字；不足額

mimic/模仿，摹擬

First, instead of using tariffs as a tool to extract specific economic concessions, they are being continuously deployed to create a climate of instability with America’s trading partners. The objective of the new Mexican tariffs—fewer migrants crossing the Rio Grande—has nothing to do with trade. And they breach the spirit of USMCA, a free-trade deal signed by the White House only six months ago, which will replace NAFTA (Congress has yet to ratify it). Alongside these big fights is a constant barrage of petty activity. Officials have skirmished over foreign washing machines and Canadian softwood lumber imports.

首先，關(guān)稅不是用來獲取特定經(jīng)濟讓步的工具，而是不斷被用來制造與美國貿(mào)易伙伴之間的不穩(wěn)定氣氛。新墨西哥關(guān)稅的目標——減少穿越里約熱內(nèi)盧格蘭德河的移民——與貿(mào)易無關(guān)。而且他們違反了USMCA的精神，這是白宮在六個月前簽署的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定，將取代北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定(國會尚未批準)。除了這些大的戰(zhàn)斗，還有一連串的瑣碎活動。官員們在外國洗衣機和加拿大軟木進口問題上發(fā)生了沖突。

詞匯

Concession/讓步；特許（權(quán)）

Breach/違反，破壞；打破

Barrage/阻塞

Skirmish/進行小規(guī)模戰(zhàn)斗；發(fā)生小爭論

Lumber/木材

Second, the scope of activity has been extended beyond physical goods by weaponising America’s network. Outright enemies such as Iran and Venezuela face tighter sanctions—last year 1,500 people, firms and vessels were added to the list, a record figure. The rest of the world faces a new regime for tech and finance. An executive order prohibits transactions in semiconductors and software made by foreign adversaries, and a law passed last year known as FIRRMA polices foreign investment into Silicon Valley. If a firm is blacklisted, banks usually refuse to deal with it, cutting it off from the dollar payments system. That is crippling—as two firms, ZTE and Rusal, discovered, briefly, last year.

其次，通過將美國的網(wǎng)絡(luò)武器化，其活動范圍已經(jīng)超出了實物商品。像伊朗和委內(nèi)瑞拉這樣的宿敵面臨著更嚴厲的制裁——去年有1500人、公司和船只被列入制裁名單，創(chuàng)歷史新高。世界其他地區(qū)面臨著一個新的科技和金融體系。一項行政命令禁止外國對手從事半導(dǎo)體和軟件交易，去年通過的一項名為FIRRMA的法律對外國投資硅谷進行了監(jiān)管。如果一家公司被列入黑名單，銀行通常會拒絕處理，將其從美元支付系統(tǒng)中剔除。正如中興通訊和俄鋁這兩家公司去年發(fā)現(xiàn)的那樣，會對這些企業(yè)造成嚴重的損失。

詞匯

Outright/完全的，徹底的

Adversary/對手；敵手

Such tools used to be reserved for times of war: the legal techniques used for surveillance of the payments system were developed to hunt al-Qaeda. Now a “national emergency” has been declared in tech. Officials have discretion to define what is a threat. Though they often clobber specific firms, such as Huawei, others are running scared (see article). If you run a global company, are you sure your Chinese clients are not about to be blacklisted?

這些工具過去是為戰(zhàn)爭時期保留的:用于監(jiān)視支付系統(tǒng)的法律技術(shù)是為了追捕基地組織而開發(fā)的。如今，科技界已宣布進入“國家緊急狀態(tài)”。官員們有權(quán)界定什么是威脅。盡管他們經(jīng)常痛擊特定的公司，如()，其他公司卻感到害怕。如果你經(jīng)營一家跨國公司，你確定你的()客戶不會被列入黑名單嗎?

詞匯

Surveillance/監(jiān)督；監(jiān)視

al-Qaeda/基地組織（著名恐怖主義組織領(lǐng)袖為拉登）

discretion/ ?自由裁量權(quán)；謹慎；判斷力

clobber/ ?擊倒；痛打

The damage to America’s economy so far has been deceptively small. Tariffs cause agony in export hubs such as northern Mexico, but even if Mr Trump imposes all his threatened tariffs, the tax on imports would be worth only about 1% of America’s GDP. His poll ratings at home have held up, even as they have slumped abroad. His officials believe the experiment in weaponising America’s economic network has only just begun.

到目前為止，美國經(jīng)濟受到的損害看起來很小。關(guān)稅在墨西哥北部等出口中心造成痛苦，但即使特朗普將所有可能征收的關(guān)稅都強加于人，進口關(guān)稅也只相當于美國GDP的1%左右。他在國內(nèi)的民調(diào)支持率一直居高不下，盡管國外卻一落千丈。他的官員認為，將美國經(jīng)濟網(wǎng)絡(luò)武器化的實驗才剛剛開始。

詞匯

Deceptively/看似；不像看上去那么；比實際更顯得

Agony/苦惱；極大的痛苦；臨死的掙扎

In fact, the bill is mounting. America could have built a global coalition to press China to reform its economy, but it has now squandered precious goodwill. Allies looking for new trade deals with America, including post-Brexit Britain, will worry that a presidential tweet could scupper it after it has been signed. Retaliation in kind has begun. China has begun its own blacklist of foreign firms. And the risk of a clumsy mistake that triggers a financial panic is high. Imagine if America banned the $1trn of Chinese shares trading in New York, or cut off foreign banks.

事實上，該法案還在增加。美國本可以建立一個全球聯(lián)盟，迫使()改革經(jīng)濟，但現(xiàn)在卻浪費了寶貴的善意。尋求與美國達成新貿(mào)易協(xié)議的盟友，包括退歐后的英國，將擔心總統(tǒng)的一條推文在簽署后可能會破壞協(xié)議。以牙還牙的報復(fù)已經(jīng)開始。()已經(jīng)開始將外國公司列入黑名單。而且，一個愚蠢的錯誤引發(fā)金融恐慌的風險很高。想象一下，如果美國禁止價值1萬億美元的()股票在紐約交易，或者切斷外國銀行的業(yè)務(wù)。

詞匯

Coalition/聯(lián)合；結(jié)合，合并

Squander/浪費

Scupper/使船沉沒；突襲

Retaliation in kind/以牙還牙

Clumsy/笨拙的

In the long run the American-led network is under threat. There are hints of mutiny—of America’s 35 European and Asian military allies, only three have so far agreed to ban Huawei. Efforts to build a rival global infrastructure will accelerate. China is creating its own courts to adjudicate commercial disputes with foreigners (see Chaguan). Europe is experimenting with building a new payments system to get round the Iran sanctions, which could in time be used elsewhere. China, and eventually India, will be keen to end their dependence on semiconductors from Silicon Valley. Mr Trump is right that America’s network gives it vast power. It will take decades, and cost a fortune, to replace it. But if you abuse it, ultimately you will lose it.

從長遠來看，美國主導(dǎo)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)受到了威脅。美國的盟友關(guān)系已經(jīng)有了裂痕，美國在歐洲和亞洲的35個軍事盟友中，只有3個同意禁止()。建立一個與之競爭的全球基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的努力將會加快。()正在建立自己的法庭來裁決與外國人的商業(yè)糾紛(看本期的茶館專欄)。歐洲正在試驗建立一套新的支付體系，以繞過對伊朗的制裁,而且這種新的支付體系遲早會被用于其他地方。()，還包括印度，都渴望結(jié)束對硅谷半導(dǎo)體的依賴。特朗普說得對，美國的網(wǎng)絡(luò)賦予了它巨大的權(quán)力。要想取代它，將需要幾十年的時間，而且要花費一大筆錢。但如果你濫用它，最終你會失去它。

詞匯

Mutiny/兵變；叛亂；暴動