TED演講者：Miguel Goncalves / 米格爾·貢薩爾維斯

演講標(biāo)題：How millennials and Gen Z can invest in a better future / 千禧一代和 Z 世代如何投資于更美好的未來

內(nèi)容概要：Millennials and Gen Z will inherit 30 trillion dollars of wealth in the coming decades, and what they do with their money will have an incredible impact on the future of the planet, says impact investor Miguel Goncalves. He makes a case for ESG investing -- or putting money in funds that weigh environmental and social factors -- and proposes a societal shift towards a more sustainable and equitable future, led by a forward-thinking next generation.

影響力投資者米格爾·岡卡爾維斯說，千禧一代和 Z 世代將在未來幾十年繼承 30 萬億美元的財(cái)富，他們?nèi)绾问褂眠@些錢將對地球的未來產(chǎn)生難以置信的影響。他為 ESG 投資 (即把錢投到權(quán)衡環(huán)境和社會(huì)因素的基金中) 提供了舉例，并提出在具有前瞻性思維的下一代的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，社會(huì)向更可持續(xù)、更公平的未來轉(zhuǎn)變。

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【1】In the coming decades, my generation of millennials and Gen Zers will inherit the largest amount of wealth humanity has ever created: some 30 trillion dollars.

在接下來的幾十年里, 我們千禧一代和 Z 世代 將繼承人類曾經(jīng)創(chuàng)造過最多的財(cái)富: 約 30 萬億美元。

【2】That's a huge wallet.

那是一個(gè)巨大的數(shù)目。

【3】Unluckily for us, we'll also inherit some huge issues: climate change, geopolitical instability, inequality.

對我們來說不幸的是,我們也會(huì)繼承 許多十分重大的問題: 全球變暖,地緣政治不穩(wěn)定, 不平等。

【4】What we choose to do or not do with this enormous wallet will define the future of our species.

我們用著我們巨大的財(cái)富 選擇去做和不做的事情 將會(huì)決定我們?nèi)祟愇磥淼拿\(yùn)。

【5】No pressure, folks.

各位不要有壓力。

【6】Why, might you ask, am I talking about my generation's wallet?

你可能會(huì)問,為什么 我要講述關(guān)于我們這一代的財(cái)富呢？

【7】Well, the reason why is because I'm an investor, and the essence of my job is to allocate your savings to build a better future.

那是因?yàn)槲沂且粋€(gè)投資者, 我的工作的核心就是分配好 你的儲(chǔ)蓄來建造一個(gè)更好的未來。

【8】Because I'm also a millennial who doesn't particularly like losing sleep over the thought of rising global temperatures, my job also requires me to think about what's good for society.

因?yàn)槲乙彩且粋€(gè)不太喜歡 因?yàn)橄氲饺驓鉁厣仙?的千禧一代, 我的工作使我思考什么對社會(huì)有益。

【9】And from where I sit, one of the keys to bettering the world is ESG investing.

從我的認(rèn)知出發(fā), 讓世界變得更好的 十分重要的一點(diǎn)是 ESG 投資。

【10】ESG stands for environmental, social and governance.

ESG 是環(huán)境、 社會(huì)及管治投資的縮寫。

【11】Think of ESG as additional little pieces of data that some investors consider when analyzing the risks or opportunities of an investment.

將 ESG 視為一些 投資者在分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn), 或投資機(jī)會(huì)時(shí)考慮的額外小數(shù)據(jù)。

【12】So, for example, a car company that starts selling more electric vehicles may be around longer in a future where we can't burn as many fossil fuels.

例如,一家汽車公司 開始銷售更多的電動(dòng)汽車, 那這個(gè)汽車公司可以存在的時(shí)間更長, 因?yàn)橐院笪覀儾荒苋紵芏嗷剂稀?/p>

【13】So an investor might consider that company to be a safer place to put your money.

所以一個(gè)投資者將會(huì)把這家公司視為 一個(gè)更穩(wěn)定的投資的地方。

【14】In an ideal world, here's what ESG promises.

在一個(gè)理想的世界里, 以下是 ESG 的承諾。

【15】It promises better investment returns because money is invested in companies with sustainable practices, which makes them likelier to be around longer-term.

它承諾更好的投資回報(bào) 因?yàn)榘彦X投資于 有可持續(xù)的實(shí)踐公司的, 可以使它更有可能長期存在。

【16】It promises business leaders who share more and better data about what their companies are doing.

它向會(huì)帶來 更多更好的分享公司運(yùn)營數(shù)據(jù) 的商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖承諾。

【17】It promises greater productivity by allocating money to companies that maintain strong relationships with customers, employees and suppliers.

它將通過將資金分配給與客戶、 員工和供應(yīng)商 保持良好關(guān)系的企業(yè) 來提高效率和產(chǎn)率。

【18】That's the vision.

這就是愿景。

【19】The good news is that some people, younger generations especially, have started buying into this vision.

好消息是有些人, 尤其是年輕一代, 已經(jīng)開始支持這個(gè)愿景。

【20】And ESG strategies have gained a ton of momentum over the past years.

ESG 戰(zhàn)略在過去幾年里 獲得了巨大的推動(dòng)。

【21】That's the good news. #happy.

這是好消息。#開心。

【22】The not so good news is that we're still far away from achieving the full promises of ESG.

不太好的消息是 我們距離實(shí)現(xiàn) ESG 帶來的全部好處還很遠(yuǎn)。

【23】Here's a sobering fact.

這里有一個(gè)讓人悲傷的消息。

【24】A recent survey from Kalon, a major investment consulting firm, suggests that about half of institutional investors consider the benefits of ESG to be unclear or unproven.

大型投資咨詢公司 Kalon 最近的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示, 大約一半的機(jī)構(gòu)投資者 認(rèn)為 ESG 的好處 尚不清楚或未經(jīng)證實(shí)。

【25】In other words, many of the people who will allocate millennials' and Gen Zers' money aren't fully convinced that ESG is relevant when deciding where to put your money.

換種說法就是, 許多將為千禧一代和 z 一代 分配資金的人并不完全相信 在決定將資金投向何處時(shí), ESG 是重要的參考因素。

【26】Now, I think there are many reasons why this might be the case.

我認(rèn)為有很多原因 可以解釋這種情況。

【27】For example, investors focused on short-term outcomes might not necessarily know the best way to consider longer-term sustainability.

例如,關(guān)注短期結(jié)果的投資者 可能并不一定知道考慮長期 可持續(xù)性的最佳方式。

【28】Or there may be a sense that companies can't do well and do good at the same time.

或者,可能會(huì)有一種感覺 公司不能同時(shí)做好和做的贊。

【29】Whatever the reason may be, this is a problem, folks.

不管是出于什么原因, 這是一個(gè)巨大的問題。

【30】If the people running the investment strategies don't anticipate ESG will work, how can we achieve its full promises?

如果執(zhí)行投資策略的人 不預(yù)期 ESG 會(huì)起作用, 我們?nèi)绾螌?shí)現(xiàn)它 的能帶來的全部好處呢?

【31】The key word in all of this is "expect."

這里的關(guān)鍵詞就是“期望”。

【32】Let me now tell you something I didn't fully appreciate until I started working in finance.

現(xiàn)在讓我告訴你一些 直到我開始從事金融工作 才完全欣賞的事情。

【33】We'd all like to think that investment decisions are made with cold, hard data and nothing else.

我們都認(rèn)為,投資決策是根據(jù)冰冷、 確鑿的數(shù)據(jù)而來的, 它并不參雜其他的東西。

【34】But the truth is that investors are people and the economy is made of people.

但事實(shí)是,投資者是人, 經(jīng)濟(jì)是由人組成的。

【35】Which means that, like it or not, a lot of what happens in financial markets comes down to psychology and expectations.

這意味著,不管你喜不喜歡, 金融市場上發(fā)生的很多事情 都?xì)w結(jié)于心理和期望。

【36】And these expectations can be a force for good or bad.

這些期望可以 是一種好的或壞的力量。

【37】John Maynard Keynes, one of the fathers of modern economics, once famously described how powerful expectations - can play a powerful role in markets.

現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)之父之一的 約翰?梅納德?凱恩斯, 曾有過一個(gè)著名的描述 可以在市場中發(fā)揮強(qiáng)大的作用。

【38】He also had a pretty sweet mustache.

他還有一個(gè)很酷的胡子。

【39】Anyway, I digress.

不過,我跑題了

【40】The point is that I've seen the power of what expectations can do.

重點(diǎn)是我看見過“預(yù)期”的力量, 和他可以做的事。

【41】And here's a firsthand example.

我有一個(gè)第一手的例子。

【42】I'm from Venezuela, and in the late twenty-teens, my home country experienced one of the worst periods of hyperinflation ever recorded.

我來自委內(nèi)瑞拉, 在 20 世紀(jì) 20 年代末, 我的祖國經(jīng)歷了有史以來最嚴(yán)重 的惡性通貨膨脹時(shí)期之一。

【43】Now, there were many reasons why this hyperinflation took place and I won't go into all of them here.

惡性通貨膨脹發(fā)生的原因有很多 在這里我就不一一講了。

【44】But among those reasons was a concept called inflation expectations.

但在這些原因中 有一個(gè)叫做通脹預(yù)期的概念。

【45】What inflation expectations basically means is that when people believe prices in the future will go up, that belief, that animal spirit, can literally cause prices to rise today.

通脹預(yù)期的基本意思是, 當(dāng)人們相信未來價(jià)格會(huì)上漲時(shí), 這種信念,這種動(dòng)物精神, 會(huì)導(dǎo)致價(jià)格上漲。

【46】Expectations create reality.

期望創(chuàng)造現(xiàn)實(shí)。

【47】So coming back to ESG, what Venezuela and Lord Keynes have taught me is that making ESG and sustainability mainstream will require us to literally redefine society's expectations of what ESG is and what it can do.

所以回到 ESG, 委內(nèi)瑞拉和凱恩斯勛爵教會(huì)我的是, 讓 ESG 和可持續(xù)發(fā)展成為主流, 需要我們重新定義社會(huì) 對 ESG 是什么 以及它能做什么的期望。

【48】That might sound like a tall order, but I think there's a few things you and I can do about it.

這聽起來可能有點(diǎn)難, 但我覺得我們可以做一些事情。

【49】One solution investors are working on is to standardize ESG metrics.

一個(gè)投資者正在研究的 解決方案是將 ESG 指標(biāo)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化。

【50】So for context, right now, there are lots of divergent opinions about what metrics matter most or are material.

所以現(xiàn)在就背景而言, 目前對于哪些指標(biāo)最重要或最重要 存在許多不同意見。

【51】And in the middle of this analysis paralysis, because there's a million things we could be measuring, it's no surprise why some investors are skeptical.

在這種分析癱瘓的過程中, 因?yàn)槲覀兛梢院饬康臇|西有一百萬個(gè), 所以一些投資者持懷疑態(tài)度 也就不足為奇了。

【52】Standardizing ESG metrics is showing some promise already.

標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化 ESG 指標(biāo) 已經(jīng)顯示出一些希望。

【53】Instead of incentivizing investors to cherry-pick data that makes companies look good, they encourage us to measure what matters.

他們沒有鼓勵(lì)投資者 挑選那些讓公司看起來不錯(cuò)的數(shù)據(jù), 而是鼓勵(lì)我們衡量什么才是重要的。

【54】For example, data security is massively important for health care companies because patient safety and security are paramount.

例如,數(shù)據(jù)安全對于醫(yī)療保健公司 來說非常重要, 因?yàn)榛颊叩陌踩侵陵P(guān)重要的。

【55】Although important, data security might not be as central a consideration for, say, a kitchen cabinet manufacturer.

雖然重要, 數(shù)據(jù)安全可能 不是廚柜制造商考慮的重點(diǎn)。

【56】There's a cool Harvard Business School study that was released not too long ago, and it found that companies that address material ESG issues can outperform companies that don't by as much as nine percent per year.

哈佛商學(xué)院不久前發(fā)布了 一項(xiàng)很酷的研究, 該研究發(fā)現(xiàn),能夠面對并試圖解決 重大 ESG 問題的公司的業(yè)績 比那些不解決 ESG 問題的公司高出 9%。

【57】That's good news.

這是好消息。

【58】#cantstopwontstop.

#沒法停不想停。

【59】Here's a second solution.

這里是第二個(gè)解決方法。

【60】Investors like me are working on literally changing the way we calculate financial forecasts.

像我這樣的投資者正在努力改變 我們計(jì)算財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)測的方式。

【61】So right now, most investors use financial models to make educated predictions about what a company might do in the future and how much money it's going to make.

所以現(xiàn)在,大多數(shù)投資者使用 財(cái)務(wù)模型對一家公司未來 可能做什么以及它能賺多少錢 做出有根據(jù)的預(yù)測。

【62】Let's just say we also excel at making spreadsheets.

我們說我們也擅長制作電子表格。

【63】I'm so thrilled more than zero people laughed at that one.

我很高興居然有人 被這個(gè)笑話逗笑了。

【64】What if, though, what if, in addition to basic financial data, we built in other pieces of data into our models that are predictive of how much earnings a company is going to make?

但是,如果, 除了基本的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù), 我們在我們的模型中加入其他的數(shù)據(jù) 來預(yù)測一個(gè)公司將會(huì)賺多少錢呢?

【65】But beyond standardized ESG metrics or new ways of calculating financial forecasts, I think the third and most important thing we need is trust.

但除了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的 ESG 指標(biāo) 或計(jì)算財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)測的新方法之外, 我覺得第三點(diǎn) 和最重要的一點(diǎn)就是信任。

【66】If we trust and expect that companies that do good will be around longer, we start to create a future where ESG becomes an indelible part of any company.

如果我們相信并期待 做好事的公司會(huì)存在得更久, 我們將開創(chuàng)一個(gè) ESG 成為所有 公司不可磨滅的一部分的一個(gè)未來。

【67】We start to create a future where sustainable companies are less risky to own, and money managers believe in using the right data to make better decisions.

我們開始創(chuàng)造 這樣一個(gè)擁有可持續(xù)發(fā)展 的公司風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更低, 基金經(jīng)理相信使用 正確的數(shù)據(jù)來做出更好的決策。

【68】We start to create a world where you, the personal investor, leverage the power of expectations to demand even more tools, even better metrics, and so on and so forth, where trust in the system improves further.

我們開始創(chuàng)造一個(gè)世界, 在那里你,個(gè)人投資者, 利用期望的力量 來要獲取更多的工具, 更好的指標(biāo),等等, 我們將對這套系統(tǒng)更加信任。

【69】Economists might call this a virtuous cycle.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家可能稱之為良性循環(huán)。

【70】I sometimes call this "the virtuous cycle of how to keep humanity alive for centuries and eons to come, yay, awesome."

我有時(shí)把它稱作為為 “讓人類在未來幾個(gè)世紀(jì) 和億萬年中生存的良性循環(huán), 耶,這太棒了?！?/p>

【71】But that might be a little too long.

但那可能有點(diǎn)太長了。

【72】So for short, let's call it "the virtuous cycle of investing in the 21st century."

簡而言之, 我們把它稱作之為 “21 世紀(jì)投資的良性循環(huán)”吧。

【73】Because like it or not, it represents the future of investing.

因?yàn)椴还苣阆膊幌矚g, 它代表著投資的未來。

【74】If there's one thing to take away from what I've been saying, it's this: Fellow millennials and Gen Zers, start thinking about your assets today.

如果什么你們可以從我一直在說的話中 得到啟發(fā)的,那就是: 千禧一代和z世代的同胞們,

【75】Start thinking about your savings.

從今天開始考慮你的資產(chǎn)吧。 開始考慮你的儲(chǔ)蓄。

【76】What might be passed down to you and how it can be used to build the world's future.

什么會(huì)被遺傳給你, 以及如何用它來建設(shè)世界的未來。

【77】If you don't invest your own money, ask your fund manager what they plan to do with your assets, what metrics they use and why.

如果你自己不投資自己的錢, 問問你的基金經(jīng)理, 他們打算用你的錢做什么, 他們使用什么衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn), 并且為什么用這個(gè)衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。

【78】Your pension funds, your 401k, even the money in your savings or checking account, all can be put to work to create the virtuous cycle of investing in the 21st century.

你的養(yǎng)老基金,你的 401k, 甚至你的儲(chǔ)蓄或支票賬戶中的錢, 都可以用來 在 21 世紀(jì)創(chuàng)造投資的良性循環(huán)。

【79】And if this sounds like a pie in the sky idea right now, think about Lord Keynes' mustache for a second and consider whether it's your expectations that may need changing.

如果這聽起來像是 一個(gè)空中餡餅的想法, 想想凱恩斯勛爵的胡子, 考慮一下你的期望 是否需要改變。

【80】Thank you.

謝謝。