The Quarterly Journal of Economics （季刊）2023年第1期

Volume 138, Issue 1, February 2023ARTICLES

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——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

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1.When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering??

何時(shí)調(diào)整聚類的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差?

Alberto Abadie,?Susan Athey,?Guido W Imbens,?Jeffrey M Wooldridge

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac038

Clustered standard errors, with clusters defined by factors such as geography, are widespread in empirical research in economics and many other disciplines. Formally, clustered standard errors adjust for the correlations induced by sampling the outcome variable from a data-generating process with unobserved cluster-level components. However, the standard econometric framework for clustering leaves important questions unanswered: (i) Why do we adjust standard errors for clustering in some ways but not others, for example, by state but not by gender, and in observational studies but not in completely randomized experiments? (ii) Is the clustered variance estimator valid if we observe a large fraction of the clusters in the population? (iii) In what settings does the choice of whether and how to cluster make a difference? We address these and other questions using a novel framework for clustered inference on average treatment effects. In addition to the common sampling component, the new framework incorporates a design component that accounts for the variability induced on the estimator by the treatment assignment mechanism. We show that, when the number of clusters in the sample is a nonnegligible fraction of the number of clusters in the population, conventional clustered standard errors can be severely inflated, and propose new variance estimators that correct for this bias.

聚類標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差是由地理等因素定義的聚類，在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和許多其他學(xué)科的實(shí)證研究中廣泛存在。在形式上，聚類標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差調(diào)整了由數(shù)據(jù)生成過程中使用不可觀測的聚類級組件對結(jié)果變量進(jìn)行抽樣所引起的相關(guān)性。然而，聚類的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)框架留下了一些重要的問題沒有得到回答:(i)為什么我們會以某些方式調(diào)整聚類的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差，而不是其他方式，例如，按州而不是按性別調(diào)整，在觀察性研究中而不是在完全隨機(jī)的實(shí)驗(yàn)中調(diào)整?(ii)如果我們觀察到總體中很大一部分的聚類，聚類方差估計(jì)是否有效?(iii)在什么環(huán)境下，是否聚類和如何聚類的選擇會產(chǎn)生影響?我們解決這些和其他問題使用一個(gè)新的框架聚類推斷平均治療效果。除了常見的抽樣成分外，新框架還納入了一個(gè)設(shè)計(jì)成分，該成分考慮了處理分配機(jī)制對估計(jì)器產(chǎn)生的可變性。我們表明，當(dāng)樣本中的聚類數(shù)量是總體中聚類數(shù)量的不可忽略的一部分時(shí)，傳統(tǒng)的聚類標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差可能會嚴(yán)重膨脹，并提出新的方差估計(jì)，以糾正這一偏差。

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2.The Evolution of Access to Public Accommodations in the United States

美國公共設(shè)施的演變

Lisa D Cook,?Maggie E C Jones,?Trevon D Logan,?David Rosé

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac035

The economic analysis of racial discrimination in public accommodations is remarkably limited. To study this issue, we construct a national data set of nondiscriminatory establishments from the?Negro Motorist Green Books, a travel guide published from 1936 to 1966 to aid Black Americans in finding nondiscriminatory retail and service establishments. We document patterns in the geographic spread and evolution of Green Book establishments, as well as the correlates of Green Book presence. We find that economic and social measures, as well as state laws relating to racial discrimination and antidiscrimination, were correlated with the provision of nondiscriminatory services. We then use the Green Book data to test whether market conditions and white consumer discrimination led businesses to bar Black customers prior to the Civil Rights Act of 1964. We use plausibly exogenous variation from white World War II casualties and Black migration patterns to isolate the effect of a change in the racial composition of consumers on the growth of nondiscriminatory businesses. We find that the share of nondiscriminatory establishments grew faster in locations with larger increases in the share of the Black population, but the magnitudes were small. These results highlight the importance of federal legislation in ending racial discrimination in public accommodations.

關(guān)于公共設(shè)施中種族歧視的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析非常有限。為了研究這一問題，我們從1936年至1966年出版的旅行指南《黑人司機(jī)綠皮書》(Negro Motorist Green Books)中構(gòu)建了一個(gè)關(guān)于非歧視機(jī)構(gòu)的全國數(shù)據(jù)集，該數(shù)據(jù)集幫助美國黑人尋找非歧視的零售和服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu)。我們記錄了綠皮書機(jī)構(gòu)的地理傳播和演變模式，以及綠皮書存在的相關(guān)性。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會措施，以及與種族歧視和反歧視有關(guān)的州法律，與提供非歧視性服務(wù)相關(guān)。然后，我們使用《綠皮書》的數(shù)據(jù)來測試在1964年《民權(quán)法案》(Civil Rights Act of 1964)之前，市場狀況和白人消費(fèi)者歧視是否導(dǎo)致企業(yè)禁止黑人客戶。我們利用白人二戰(zhàn)傷亡人數(shù)和黑人移民模式的看似合理的外生變異，來隔離消費(fèi)者種族構(gòu)成變化對非歧視企業(yè)增長的影響。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在黑人人口比例增長較大的地點(diǎn)，非歧視機(jī)構(gòu)的比例增長較快，但幅度較小。這些結(jié)果突出了聯(lián)邦立法在結(jié)束公共設(shè)施中的種族歧視方面的重要性。

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3.Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record

增加對有犯罪記錄的工人的需求

Zo? Cullen,?Will Dobbie,?Mitchell Hoffman

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac029

We experimentally test several approaches to increasing the demand for workers with a criminal record on a nationwide staffing platform by addressing potential downside risk and productivity concerns. The staffing platform asked hiring managers to make a series of hypothetical hiring decisions that affected whether workers with a criminal record could accept their jobs in the future. We find that 39% of businesses in our sample are willing to work with individuals with a criminal record at baseline, which rises to over 50% when businesses are offered crime and safety insurance, a single performance review, or a limited background check covering just the past year. Wage subsidies can achieve similar increases but at a substantially higher cost. Based on our findings, the staffing platform relaxed the criminal background check requirement and offered crime and safety insurance to interested businesses.

我們實(shí)驗(yàn)測試了幾種方法，通過解決潛在的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和生產(chǎn)力問題，增加對全國人員配置平臺上有犯罪記錄的工人的需求。該人員配置平臺要求招聘經(jīng)理做出一系列假設(shè)的招聘決定，這些決定會影響有犯罪記錄的工人未來是否能接受他們的工作。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在我們的樣本中，39%的企業(yè)愿意在基線上與有犯罪記錄的個(gè)人合作，當(dāng)企業(yè)獲得犯罪和安全保險(xiǎn)、一次績效審查或僅覆蓋過去一年的有限背景調(diào)查時(shí)，這一比例上升到50%以上。工資補(bǔ)貼可以實(shí)現(xiàn)類似的增長，但成本要高得多。根據(jù)我們的發(fā)現(xiàn)，人員配置平臺放松了犯罪背景檢查要求，并向感興趣的企業(yè)提供犯罪和安全保險(xiǎn)。

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4.Improving Workplace Climate in Large Corporations: A Clustered Randomized Intervention

改善大公司的工作環(huán)境:一項(xiàng)聚類的隨機(jī)干預(yù)

Sule Alan,?Gozde Corekcioglu,?Matthias Sutter

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac034

We evaluate the impact of a training program aimed at improving the relational atmosphere in the workplace. The program encourages prosocial behavior and the use of professional language, focusing primarily on leaders’ behavior and leader-subordinate interactions. We implement this program using a clustered randomized design involving over 3,000 headquarters employees of 20 large corporations in Turkey. We evaluate the program with respect to employee separation, pro- and antisocial behavior, the prevalence of support networks, and perceived workplace climate. We find that treated firms have a lower likelihood of employee separation at the leadership level, fewer employees lacking professional and personal help, and denser, less segregated support networks. We also find that employees in treated corporations are less inclined to engage in toxic competition, exhibit higher reciprocity toward each other, and report higher workplace satisfaction and a more collegial environment. The program’s success in improving leader-subordinate relationships emerges as a likely mechanism to explain these results. Treated subordinates report higher professionalism and empathy in their leaders and are more likely to consider their leaders as professional support providers.

我們評估旨在改善工作場所關(guān)系氛圍的培訓(xùn)項(xiàng)目的影響。該項(xiàng)目鼓勵(lì)親社會行為和專業(yè)語言的使用，主要集中在領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的行為和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)-下屬的互動。我們采用了隨機(jī)聚類設(shè)計(jì)，涉及土耳其20家大公司的3000多名總部員工。我們從員工離職、親社會和反社會行為、支持網(wǎng)絡(luò)的流行程度和感知的工作環(huán)境等方面評估該項(xiàng)目。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，接受治療的公司在領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層層面的員工離職可能性更低，缺乏專業(yè)和個(gè)人幫助的員工更少，支持網(wǎng)絡(luò)更密集，隔離程度更低。我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)，在有特殊待遇的公司中，員工從事有毒競爭的傾向較低，相互之間表現(xiàn)出更高的互惠性，并報(bào)告更高的工作滿意度和更大學(xué)的環(huán)境。該項(xiàng)目在改善領(lǐng)導(dǎo)-下屬關(guān)系方面的成功，可能是解釋這些結(jié)果的機(jī)制。被對待的下屬報(bào)告說，他們的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)具有更高的專業(yè)性和同理心，更有可能將領(lǐng)導(dǎo)視為專業(yè)的支持提供者。

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5.Asset Specificity of Nonfinancial Firms

非金融企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)專用性

Amir Kermani,?Yueran Ma

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac030

We develop a new data set to study asset specificity among nonfinancial firms. Our data cover the liquidation values of each category of assets on firms’ balance sheets and provides information across major industries. First, we find that nonfinancial firms have high asset specificity. For example, the liquidation value of fixed assets is 35% of the net book value in the average industry. Second, we analyze the determinants of asset specificity and document that assets’ physical attributes (e.g., mobility, durability, and customization) play a crucial role. Third, we investigate several implications. Consistent with theories of investment irreversibility, high asset specificity is associated with less disinvestment and stronger effects of uncertainty on investment activities. We also find that the increasing prevalence of intangible assets has not significantly reduced firms’ liquidation values.

我們開發(fā)了一個(gè)新的數(shù)據(jù)集來研究非金融公司的資產(chǎn)專用性。我們的數(shù)據(jù)涵蓋了企業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上每一類資產(chǎn)的清算價(jià)值，并提供了主要行業(yè)的信息。首先，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)非金融企業(yè)具有較高的資產(chǎn)專用性。例如，行業(yè)平均固定資產(chǎn)的清算價(jià)值為賬面凈值的35%。其次，我們分析了資產(chǎn)專用性的決定因素，并證明資產(chǎn)的物理屬性(如移動性、持久性和定制性)發(fā)揮了至關(guān)重要的作用。第三，我們調(diào)查了幾個(gè)含義。與投資不可逆性理論一致，高資產(chǎn)專用性與較少的撤資相關(guān)，不確定性對投資活動的影響更強(qiáng)。我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)，無形資產(chǎn)的日益普及并沒有顯著降低企業(yè)的清算價(jià)值。

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6.Memory and Probability

記憶與概率

Pedro Bordalo,?John J Conlon,?Nicola Gennaioli,?Spencer Y Kwon,?Andrei Shleifer

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac031

In many economic decisions, people estimate probabilities, such as the likelihood that a risk materializes or that a job applicant will be a productive employee, by retrieving experiences from memory. We model this process based on two established regularities of selective recall: similarity and interference. We show that the similarity structure of a hypothesis and the way it is described (not just its objective probability) shape the recall of experiences and thus probability assessments. The model accounts for and reconciles a variety of empirical findings, such as overestimation of unlikely events when these are cued versus neglect of noncued ones, the availability heuristic, the representativeness heuristic, conjunction and disjunction fallacies, and over- versus underreaction to information in different situations. The model yields several new predictions, for which we find strong experimental support.

在許多經(jīng)濟(jì)決策中，人們通過回憶經(jīng)驗(yàn)來估計(jì)概率，比如風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的可能性，或者求職者將成為一個(gè)富有成效的員工的可能性。我們基于選擇性回憶的兩個(gè)既定規(guī)律:相似性和干擾，來模擬這一過程。我們表明，假設(shè)的相似性結(jié)構(gòu)和描述它的方式(而不僅僅是它的客觀概率)塑造了對經(jīng)驗(yàn)的回憶，從而形成了概率評估。該模型解釋并協(xié)調(diào)了各種經(jīng)驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)，例如，當(dāng)有線索時(shí)對不太可能發(fā)生的事件的高估，而對無線索事件的忽視，可用性啟發(fā)式，代表性啟發(fā)式，連接和分離謬誤，以及在不同情況下對信息的過度反應(yīng)和不足反應(yīng)。該模型產(chǎn)生了幾個(gè)新的預(yù)測，我們找到了強(qiáng)有力的實(shí)驗(yàn)支持。

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7.Economic Agents as Imperfect Problem Solvers

經(jīng)濟(jì)代理人是不完美的問題解決者

Cosmin Ilut,?Rosen Valchev

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac027

We develop a novel bounded rationality model of imperfect reasoning as the interaction between automatic (System?1) and analytical (System?2) thinking. In doing so, we formalize the empirical consensus of cognitive psychology using a structural, constrained-optimal economic framework of mental information acquisition about the unknown optimal policy function. A key result is that agents reason less (more) when facing usual (unusual) states of the world, producing state- and history-dependent behavior. Our application is an otherwise standard incomplete-markets model with no a priori behavioral biases. The ergodic distribution of actions and beliefs is characterized by endogenous learning traps, where locally stable state dynamics generate familiar regions of the state space within which behavior appears to follow memory-based heuristics. This results in endogenous behavioral biases that have many empirically desirable properties: the marginal propensity to consume is high even for unconstrained agents, hand-to-mouth status is more frequent and persistent, and there is more wealth inequality than in the standard model.

我們開發(fā)了一個(gè)新的有限理性模型的不完美推理，作為自動(系統(tǒng)1)和分析(系統(tǒng)2)思維之間的交互。在此過程中，我們使用一個(gè)關(guān)于未知最優(yōu)政策函數(shù)的心理信息獲取的結(jié)構(gòu)性、約束的最優(yōu)經(jīng)濟(jì)框架，正式確立了認(rèn)知心理學(xué)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)共識。一個(gè)關(guān)鍵的結(jié)果是，當(dāng)面對世界上通常(不尋常)的狀態(tài)時(shí)，代理人的推理更少(更多)，產(chǎn)生了依賴于狀態(tài)和歷史的行為。我們的應(yīng)用是一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的不完全市場模型，沒有先驗(yàn)的行為偏差。行動和信念的遍歷分布以內(nèi)生學(xué)習(xí)陷阱為特征，在這種情況下，局部穩(wěn)定的狀態(tài)動態(tài)會生成熟悉的狀態(tài)空間區(qū)域，在該區(qū)域內(nèi)，行為似乎遵循基于記憶的啟發(fā)式。這導(dǎo)致了具有許多經(jīng)驗(yàn)上令人滿意的特性的內(nèi)生行為偏差:即使對不受約束的代理人來說，邊際消費(fèi)傾向也很高，勉強(qiáng)糊口的地位也更頻繁和持久，財(cái)富不平等也比標(biāo)準(zhǔn)模型中更嚴(yán)重。

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8.The Long-Term Effects of Universal Preschool in Boston

波士頓普及學(xué)前教育的長期影響

Guthrie Gray-Lobe,?Parag A Pathak,?Christopher R Walters

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac036

We use admissions lotteries to estimate the effects of large-scale public preschool in Boston on college-going, college preparation, standardized test scores, and behavioral outcomes. Preschool enrollment boosts college attendance as well as SAT test taking and high school graduation. Preschool also decreases high school disciplinary measures including juvenile incarceration, but has no detectable effect on state achievement test scores. An analysis of subgroups shows that effects on college enrollment, SAT-taking, and disciplinary outcomes are larger for boys than for girls. Our findings illustrate possibilities for large-scale modern, public preschool and highlight the importance of measuring long-term and non–test score outcomes in evaluating the effectiveness of education programs.

我們使用錄取彩票來估計(jì)波士頓大規(guī)模公立幼兒園對上大學(xué)、大學(xué)準(zhǔn)備、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化考試分?jǐn)?shù)和行為結(jié)果的影響。學(xué)前教育入學(xué)率提高了大學(xué)出勤率、SAT考試出勤率和高中畢業(yè)率。學(xué)前教育還減少了包括青少年監(jiān)禁在內(nèi)的高中紀(jì)律措施，但對州成績測試分?jǐn)?shù)沒有明顯影響。對分組的分析表明，男孩對大學(xué)入學(xué)、sat考試和紀(jì)律結(jié)果的影響比女孩大。我們的發(fā)現(xiàn)說明了大規(guī)?，F(xiàn)代公立學(xué)前教育的可能性，并強(qiáng)調(diào)了在評估教育項(xiàng)目的有效性時(shí)，衡量長期和非考試分?jǐn)?shù)結(jié)果的重要性。

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9.Inflammatory Political Campaigns and Racial Bias in Policing

煽動性的政治運(yùn)動和警務(wù)中的種族偏見

Pauline Grosjean,?Federico Masera,?Hasin Yousaf

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac037

Can political rallies affect the behavior of law enforcement officers toward racial minorities? Using data from 35 million traffic stops, we show that the probability that a stopped driver is Black increases by 5.74% after a Trump rally during his 2015–2016 campaign. The effect is immediate, specific to Black drivers, lasts for up to 60?days after the rally, and is not justified by changes in driver behavior. The effects are significantly larger among law enforcement officers whose estimated racial bias is higher at baseline, in areas that score higher on present-day measures of racial resentment, those that experienced more racial violence during the Jim Crow era, and in former slave-holding counties. Mentions of racial issues in Trump speeches, whether explicit or implicit, exacerbate the effect of a Trump rally among officers with higher estimated racial bias.

政治集會能影響執(zhí)法人員對少數(shù)種族的行為嗎?利用3500萬個(gè)交通站點(diǎn)的數(shù)據(jù)，我們顯示，在特朗普2015-2016年競選期間的一次集會后，被攔下的司機(jī)是黑人的概率增加了5.74%。對黑人司機(jī)來說，這種影響是直接的，在集會后持續(xù)60天，司機(jī)行為的變化并不能證明這一點(diǎn)。在那些估計(jì)種族偏見在基線上較高的執(zhí)法人員中，在當(dāng)今種族仇恨指標(biāo)得分較高的地區(qū)，在吉姆·克勞(Jim Crow)時(shí)代經(jīng)歷了更多種族暴力的地區(qū)，以及在前蓄奴縣，這種影響要大得多。在特朗普的演講中，無論是明示還是含蓄地提到種族問題，都加劇了種族偏見較高的官員在特朗普集會上的影響。

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10.New Deal, New Patriots: How 1930s Government Spending Boosted Patriotism During World War?II

新政，新愛國者:20世紀(jì)30年代政府支出如何在二戰(zhàn)期間促進(jìn)愛國主義

Bruno Caprettini,?Hans-Joachim Voth

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac028

We demonstrate an important complementarity between patriotism and public-good provision. After 1933, the New Deal led to an unprecedented expansion of the U.S. federal government’s role. Those who benefited from social spending were markedly more patriotic during World War?II: they bought more war bonds, volunteered more, and, as soldiers, won more medals. This pattern was new—World War?I volunteering did not show the same geography of patriotism. We match military service records with the 1940 census to show that this pattern holds at the individual level. Using geographical variation, we exploit two instruments to suggest that the effect is causal: droughts and congressional committee representation predict more New Deal agricultural support, as well as bond buying, volunteering, and medals.

我們展示了愛國主義和提供公共產(chǎn)品之間的重要互補(bǔ)性。1933年之后，“新政”使美國聯(lián)邦政府的作用得到了前所未有的擴(kuò)大。那些從社會支出中受益的人在二戰(zhàn)期間明顯更愛國:他們購買了更多的戰(zhàn)爭債券，更多的志愿服務(wù)，作為士兵，他們贏得了更多的獎(jiǎng)牌。這種模式是新的——第一次世界大戰(zhàn)的志愿活動并沒有表現(xiàn)出同樣的愛國主義地理位置。我們將兵役記錄與1940年的人口普查相匹配，以表明這種模式在個(gè)人層面上是成立的。利用地理差異，我們利用了兩種工具來表明這種影響是因果關(guān)系:干旱和國會委員會代表預(yù)測了更多的新政農(nóng)業(yè)支持，以及債券購買、志愿服務(wù)和獎(jiǎng)?wù)隆?/p>

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11.Top Wealth in America: New Estimates Under Heterogeneous Returns

美國頂級財(cái)富:異質(zhì)性回報(bào)下的新估計(jì)

Matthew Smith,?Owen Zidar,?Eric Zwick

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac033

This article uses administrative tax data to estimate top wealth in the United States. We assemble new data that link people to their sources of capital income and develop new methods to estimate the degree of return heterogeneity within asset classes. Disaggregated fixed-income data reveal that rich individuals earn much more of their interest income in higher-yielding forms and have much greater exposure to credit risk. Consequently, in recent years, the interest rate on fixed income at the top is approximately 3.5?times higher than the average. We value the population of U.S. firms using firm-level characteristics and apportion this wealth using firm-owner links. We combine this new data on fixed income and pass-through business returns with refined estimates of C-corporation equity, housing, and pension wealth to deliver new capitalized wealth estimates that build upon the methods of?Saez and Zucman (2016a). From 1989 to 2016, the top 1%, 0.1%, and 0.01% wealth shares increased by 6.6, 4.6, and 2.9 percentage points, respectively, to 33.7%, 15.7%, and 7.1%. Overall, although we estimate a large degree of return heterogeneity, accounting for this heterogeneity does not change the fundamental story for top wealth shares and their growth—wealth inequality is high and has risen substantially over recent decades.

本文使用行政稅收數(shù)據(jù)來估計(jì)美國的頂級財(cái)富。我們收集了新的數(shù)據(jù)，將人們與其資本收入來源聯(lián)系起來，并開發(fā)了新的方法來估計(jì)資產(chǎn)類別內(nèi)部的回報(bào)異質(zhì)性程度。分類的固定收入數(shù)據(jù)顯示，富人以更高收益的形式賺取更多的利息收入，并面臨更大的信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此，近年來，頂層固定收入的利率約為平均利率的3.5倍。我們利用公司層面的特征來評估美國公司的數(shù)量，并利用公司與所有者的聯(lián)系來分配這些財(cái)富。我們將固定收入和傳遞業(yè)務(wù)回報(bào)的新數(shù)據(jù)與對c -公司股權(quán)、住房和養(yǎng)老金財(cái)富的精細(xì)化估計(jì)結(jié)合起來，以提供基于Saez和Zucman (2016a)方法的新的資本化財(cái)富估計(jì)。1989—2016年，前1%、0.1%和0.01%財(cái)富份額分別增長6.6、4.6和2.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，達(dá)到33.7%、15.7%和7.1%。總體而言，盡管我們估計(jì)了很大程度的回報(bào)異質(zhì)性，但考慮到這種異質(zhì)性并沒有改變頂級財(cái)富份額及其增長的基本情況——財(cái)富不平等程度很高，而且在最近幾十年里大幅上升。

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12.Corruption in Customs

海關(guān)腐敗

Cyril Chalendard,?Ana M Fernandes,?Gael Raballand,?Bob Rijkers

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac032

This article presents a new methodology to detect corruption in customs and applies it to Madagascar’s main port. Manipulation of assignment of import declarations to inspectors is identified by measuring deviations from random assignment prescribed by official rules. Deviant declarations are more at risk of tax evasion, yet less likely to be deemed fraudulent by inspectors, who also clear them faster. An intervention in which inspector assignment was delegated to a third party validates our approach, but also triggered a novel manifestation of manipulation that rejuvenated systemic corruption. Tax revenue losses associated with the corruption scheme are approximately 3% of total taxes collected and are highly concentrated among a select few inspectors and brokers.

這篇文章提出了一種新的方法來檢測海關(guān)腐敗，并將其應(yīng)用于馬達(dá)加斯加的主要港口。通過測量官方規(guī)定的隨機(jī)分配的偏差，可以確定是否有人為地將進(jìn)口報(bào)關(guān)單分配給檢查員。不符合規(guī)定的申報(bào)更有逃稅的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但被檢查人員認(rèn)為是欺詐的可能性較小，因?yàn)闄z查人員也能更快地清除申報(bào)。在一項(xiàng)干預(yù)中，檢查員的任務(wù)被委托給第三方，這驗(yàn)證了我們的做法，但也引發(fā)了一種新的操縱行為，使系統(tǒng)性腐敗重新抬頭。與腐敗計(jì)劃有關(guān)的稅收損失約占征收的稅收總額的3%，并高度集中在少數(shù)檢查員和經(jīng)紀(jì)人身上。