Next year is poised to be a great year for Japan. My main predictions are unashamedly bullish: Exports will get a boost from a re-acceleration in global growth; there will be a surprise pickup in domestic demand with business investments kicking in and, most importantly, consumers will begin to open their purses. After enforced austerity in 2020, 2021 brings the release of pent-up demand and a steady rise in the purchasing power of the Japanese people.

poised：a.鎮(zhèn)定的;平衡的;平穩(wěn)的;作好準備的;泰然自若的，Next year is poised to be a great year for Japan.

un a sha medly：ad.無恥地;不害臊地;公開地，bullish：a.似公牛的;牛脾氣的;股票行情看漲的;樂觀的;頑固的;具有信心的，My main predictions are unashamedly bullish,

pickup:n.拿起;收拾;獵物的收集;加速a.偶然認識的

kicking in:介入

austerity:n.嚴峻;嚴厲;穩(wěn)重;簡樸;緊縮;澀味,After enforced austerity in 2020

pent-up:a.被禁錮的;被壓抑的;被關(guān)閉的

purchasing power:購買力

However, also in store are a few surprises, i.e. scenarios neither forced by the still substantial COVID-19 uncertainties nor predictions and expectations made by the quantitative models of the experts or the wisdom of the crowd. I am talking about what keeps me awake at night. Improbable as some of these events may seem, any movement in their direction will force an about-face in the overall consensus. That’s why surprises are so powerful. Enjoy, and best wishes for a healthy, prosperous and happy year in 2021.

store:n.積蓄;倉庫;貨物;商店vt.儲存

?i.e.:即；也就是說,scenarios:n.劇情說明書,電影劇本,However, also in store are a few surprises, i.e. scenarios neither forced by the still substantial（重要的;牢固的;實質(zhì)上的） COVID-19 uncertainties nor predictions and expectations made by the quantitative models of the experts or the wisdom of the crowd.

Improbable=unlikely,未必會(發(fā)生)的，about-facen.向后轉(zhuǎn);一百八十度的轉(zhuǎn)變，overall consensus總體共識Improbable as some of these events may seem, any movement in their direction will force an about-face in the overall consensus.

Enjoy, and best wishes for a healthy, prosperous and happy year in 2021.

Japan as Asian headquarters

Japan is the undisputed bastion of stability in Asia and could easily become the Asia-headquarters location of choice for both established multinationals and entrepreneurial start-ups. However, to really capitalize on Japan’s natural advantages — stable politics, pro-business laws, best-in-class infrastructure, high quality of life and superb access to all of Asia etc. — one obstacle remains: a very high corporate tax rate. At basically 30%, companies face a tax-bill two- or even three-times higher than they do in Hong Kong, Singapore and other Asian capitals. Given rising political risks elsewhere, all the country needs is a little nudge. If the corporate tax were cut to, say, 20-25% for any firm — Japanese or global — that establishes its Asia headquarters in Japan, many CEOs would seriously consider moving such infrastructure to Tokyo. Of course, Japanese tax authorities will balk at the idea; but the younger generation of LDP(日本自民黨）?leaders fully recognize that 20% of something is better than 30% of nothing. An inward investment boom would follow, increasing not just the number of high-quality, high-paying job opportunities for the young and old alike in Japan, but would also naturally speed-up diversity and global awareness among local business leadership.

Headquarters: n.總部;總公司

undisputed bastion: 無可爭議的堡壘

multinationals and entrepreneurial:跨國公司

capitalize on趁…,利用…,從…中撈油水, However, to really capitalize on Japan’s natural advantages — stable politics, pro-business laws(親商業(yè)的法律), best-in-class infrastructure(最好的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施), high quality of life and superb(superb) access to all of Asia etc.

obstacle: n.障礙, remains: n.(pl.)殘物,殘存者one obstacle remains: a very high corporate tax rate.

Capitals: n.首都;首府Washington Capitals

nudge: vt.輕推, all the country needs is a little nudge.

cut to: 切換

balk: Japanese tax authorities will balk at the idea.

Recognize: vt.認識the younger generation of LDP leaders fully recognize that 20% of something is better than 30% of nothing.

Inward: a.里面地,內(nèi)部的An inward investment boom would follow

Alike: adv.相似的, diversity:多樣性An inward investment boom would follow, increasing not just the number of high-quality, high-paying job opportunities for the young and old alike in Japan, but would also naturally speed-up diversity and global awareness among local business leadership.

One planet, one destiny

In a joint effort to assert their leadership in Asia and globally, U.S. President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga spearhead the establishment of a new public-private infrastructure investment fund. A so-called “One Planet, One Destiny” investment fund would be specifically designed to turbo-charge global-best-practice development of both hard and soft infrastructure. The fund would more or less have an explicit mandate to outcompete investors from nonmember countries, i.e. China. Importantly, the fund’s debt and securities are eligible for purchases by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and other central banks. The benefit is clear: If the U.S. and Japan can lead and sponsor a concrete and proactive infrastructure investment fund that assures best-practices in all aspects of ESG and SDG, China’s “One Belt, One Road” would no longer have to be feared. A new era of healthy competition (with China) will start only if the U.S.-Japan alliance starts to mobilize capital and put their money where their vision is. Asia, Africa and Latin America need capital to build modern, free and democratic nations as urgently today as West Germany and Japan did after World War II. The race is on for who will dictate the terms and set the standards to build our planets’ future; and a united Japan and America has a good shot of catching-up and leading it.

destiny n.命運

spearhead: vt.當…的先鋒

turbo-charge渦輪增壓investment fund would be specifically designed to turbo-charge global-best-practice development of both hard and soft infrastructure.

explicit mandate: 明確的命令

Outcompete: vt. 超過；勝出, non member :n.非會員, securities: n.證券

Eligible: a.合適的;合格的the fund’s debt and securities are eligible for purchases by the Federal Reserve

concrete and proactive: 具體而主動的If the U.S. and Japan can lead and sponsor a concrete and proactive infrastructure investment fund

One Belt, One Road一帶一路

Vision：愿景，urgent：a.緊急的;迫切的

Bank of Japan ETFs

The BOJ（日本央行） owns almost 8% of the Japanese equity market, much of this through its ETF（abbr. 交易型開放式指數(shù)基金） buying program. While justifiableas an emergency measure to help overcome deflation, the central bank’s de facto（[拉]事實上的,實際的） nationalization of equity capital （股本國有化）has become counterproductive for many reasons. The biggest one is that nobody can conceive a smooth exit — if the BOJ starts selling, surely the market will crash. Who is there to buy the BOJ equity overhang? There is only one answer: Japanese savers in general and the older generation in particular. The over 65-year-olds own more than 70 percent of net financial assets（金融財產(chǎn)凈額）. To get an elderly saver to swap from bank deposits into risky ETFs will require real incentives — such as a change to inheritance tax laws. If the BOJ and the Finance Ministry can cooperate and devise a plan where any individual who buys ETFs directly from the BOJ will have these ETFs exempt from inheritance tax, I am certain the central bank could clean up its balance sheet（資產(chǎn)負債表） within a couple of weeks. The net result would be the reprivatization of Japanese equities and a healthier corporate ownership profile, as well as a better risk-return profile for household sector balance sheets.

almost：ad.幾乎,差不多

?justifiable：無可非議的

deflation：通貨緊縮

counterproductive：a.反生產(chǎn)的,反效果的

crash：崩潰，surely the market will crash

smooth ：流暢的;安穩(wěn)的，conceive：構(gòu)思;理解;料想;認為，nobody can conceive a smooth exit?

swap from：脫離，?incentive：n.刺激;誘因;鼓勵;動機a.誘發(fā)的;刺激的，To get an elderly saver to swap from bank deposits into risky ETFs will require real incentives?

reprivatization重新私有化

Pension funds and start-ups

Innovation and entrepreneurship are on everyone’s agenda, but little concrete action is taken to actually create a more entrepreneurial culture. A complex issue, but a sure way to start is to offer funding for start-ups. A public-private partnership incubator fund, where both the public and private pension funds commit ￥1 trillion in investments for domestic start-ups and domestic venture capital funds, which should help develop a new ecosystem. Ironically, the biggest obstacle here appears to be not a lack of credible start-ups and entrepreneurs, but the lack of professional expertise among Japan’s pension managers and other institutional fiduciaries（機構(gòu)信托人）.

entrepreneurship：n.企業(yè)家精神

agenda：n.(pl.)會議事項

start-up：n.開始;起動;起始a.開始階段的,起始階段的

trillion：n.兆;百萬兆a.兆的;百萬兆的

venture：n.冒險;投機vi.冒險去做vt.冒險;下決心做;使遭遇危險

incubator：n.早產(chǎn)兒保育器;孵卵器

ecosystem：n.生態(tài)系統(tǒng)

Ironically：ad.譏諷地

professional expertise：專業(yè)知識

pension：n.養(yǎng)老金;退職金;津貼

Suga goes to Pyongyang

For security and defense experts, North Korea remains a quagmire; but for an economist, North Korea and Japan are a match made in heaven where an ample supply of natural resources and labor meets world-leading technology and capital. Prime Minister Suga is an effective promoter of Japan-led infrastructure projects. Engaging North Korea constructively in economic diplomacy would not just boost Japan’s economic fortunes, but surely would create a legacy for Suga worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize. Unlikely you may say, but so is a peaceful solution without stepped-up economic engagement. Sooner or later this is bound to happen.

quagmire：n.沼澤地,泥潭;困境，North Korea remains a quagmire

are a match made in heaven：是天作之合，ample：a.充足的;廣大的，North Korea and Japan are a match made in heaven where an ample supply of natural resources and labor meets world-leading technology and capital.?

Engaging：a.美麗動人的

diplomacy：n.外交

constructively：ad.有益地

legacy：n.遺產(chǎn)

worthy of ：值得…的，worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize

is bound to：一定會，Sooner or later this is bound to happen.

engagement：n.約會,約定，economic engagement：經(jīng)濟合作

Megabank buys a U.S. bank

Japanese financials in general, banks in particular, are eager to expand in the U.S. So far, high prices and expensive valuations in booming America forces Tokyo-based CEOs to keep their powder dry. However, sooner or later, a big deal will get done; and when it does it will force the hands of other bank leaders and trigger a boom in mergers and acquisitions among Japanese financials.

?are eager to：a.渴望的,熱切的

Megabank：銀行巨頭

?in booming：蓬勃發(fā)展

keep their powder dry未雨綢繆，America forces Tokyo-based CEOs to keep their powder dry

trigger a boom：引爆炸彈，and when it does it will force the hands of other bank leaders and trigger a boom in mergers and acquisitions among Japanese financials.

mergers and acquisitions：併購

Sani Brown wins gold

In the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, Japanese sprinter Sani Brown Abdul Hakim runs the race of his life and wins the gold medal in the 100 meter sprint at the Tokyo Olympics. The son of a Japanese mother and Ghanaian father then goes on to narrowly miss the double by losing the 200 meters race to his Japanese teammate, Cambridge Asuka, son of a Japanese mother and Jamaican father. You may say I am dreaming, but hey, that’s exactly what the Tokyo Olympics are all about — big dreams. Either way, watch out for a strong Japanese team showing in the track and field events. More importantly, in addition to lifting global spirits — human endeavor and happiness cannot be stopped by a virus — Japan’s multicultural Olympians are poised to define a new global image of Japan that is open, innovative, resilient and fun.

Sprinter：n.奔跑者;短跑選手

Ghanaian：n.加納人

Either way：不管怎樣

Endeavor努力human endeavor and happiness cannot be stopped by a virus

Innovative：新穎的;創(chuàng)新的

Resilient：堅韌的