The next 50 years in space

未來(lái)50年內(nèi)的太空業(yè)

A new age of space exploration is beginning

太空探索的新時(shí)代開(kāi)始了

It will need the rule of law and a system of arms control to thrive

它需要法治和軍備控制體系才能繁榮發(fā)展

Jul 18th 2019?

THE MOMENT when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.

50年前，尼爾·阿姆斯特朗(Neil Armstrong)踏上月球的那一刻，在全世界激起了敬畏、自豪和驚奇。本刊認(rèn)為:“從今天起，人類(lèi)可以到宇宙中任何他想去的地方，人類(lèi)的智慧和他的意志會(huì)設(shè)法達(dá)成人類(lèi)的目標(biāo)……到任何行星上，人類(lèi)現(xiàn)在肯定是遲早要去的?！薄暗聦?shí)并非如此。登月是一種反常現(xiàn)象，實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)本身并非有目的，而是一種表明美國(guó)非凡能力的手段。但登月項(xiàng)目一旦成功，就不需要再嘗試。自1972年以來(lái)，只有571人進(jìn)入軌道，沒(méi)有人比來(lái)自芝加哥的得梅因更深入地探索太空。

詞匯

Awe/敬畏，驚嘆

Ingenuity/心靈手巧，獨(dú)創(chuàng)性

Contrive/（不顧困難而）設(shè)法做到

Aberration/反?，F(xiàn)象，異常行為；偏離

as an end/作為一個(gè)目的

The next 50 years will look very different (see Science section). Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.

未來(lái)的50年將會(huì)大不相同（見(jiàn)本期科技/科學(xué)欄目）。不斷下降的成本、新的技術(shù)、中國(guó)和印度的雄心，以及新一代的企業(yè)家，都預(yù)示著一個(gè)大膽的太空發(fā)展時(shí)代的到來(lái)。幾乎可以肯定的是，它將包括為富裕國(guó)家提供旅游服務(wù)，為所有人提供更好的通訊網(wǎng)絡(luò);從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，這可能涉及礦產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)，甚至是大規(guī)模運(yùn)輸。太空將越來(lái)越像地球的延伸——一個(gè)公司和個(gè)人戶的舞臺(tái)，而不僅僅是政府所有。但是為了實(shí)現(xiàn)這一承諾，世界需要建立一套管理太空的法律體系——無(wú)論是在和平時(shí)期，還是在戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)時(shí)期。

詞匯

Arena/舞臺(tái)；競(jìng)技場(chǎng)

The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.

到目前為止，空間發(fā)展的重點(diǎn)一直是使得太空之下的一些活動(dòng)變得更加便捷-——主要是衛(wèi)星通訊的廣播和導(dǎo)航。現(xiàn)在有兩件事正在改變。首先，地緣政治正在推動(dòng)一股將人類(lèi)送出近地軌道淺灘的新潮流。中國(guó)計(jì)劃到2035年將人類(lèi)送上月球。唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)的政府希望美國(guó)人在2024年前重返月球。不斷下降的成本使得這種炫耀比以前更實(shí)惠。阿波羅計(jì)劃耗資數(shù)千億美元(以今天的貨幣計(jì)算)?，F(xiàn)在票價(jià)高達(dá)數(shù)百億美元。

Second, the private sector has come of age. Between 1958 and 2009 almost all of the spending in space was by state agencies, mainly NASA and the Pentagon. In the past decade private investment has risen to an annual average of $2bn a year, or 15% of the total, and it is set to increase further. SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket firm, made 21 successful satellite launches last year and is valued at $33bn. Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, sells off $1bn-worth of his shares in the company each year to pay for Blue Origin, a space venture. Virgin Galactic plans to go public this year at a valuation of $1.5bn. As well as capital and ideas, the private sector provides much greater efficiency. According to NASA, developing SpaceX’s Falcon rockets would have cost the agency $4bn; it cost SpaceX a tenth of that.

其次，私營(yíng)部門(mén)已經(jīng)成熟。從1958年到2009年，幾乎所有的太空開(kāi)支都由國(guó)家機(jī)構(gòu)承擔(dān)，主要是NASA和五角大樓。在過(guò)去的十年里，私人投資已經(jīng)上升到每年20億美元的平均水平，占總投資的15%，而且還將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。埃隆?馬斯克(Elon Musk)的火箭公司SpaceX去年成功發(fā)射了21顆衛(wèi)星，估值330億美元。亞馬遜(Amazon)創(chuàng)始人杰夫?貝佐斯(Jeff Bezos)每年出售價(jià)值10億美元的公司股票，以支付太空企業(yè)藍(lán)色起源(Blue Origin)的投資。維珍銀河計(jì)劃今年上市，估值為15億美元。除了資本和理念，私營(yíng)部門(mén)還提供了更高的效率。美國(guó)宇航局表示，開(kāi)發(fā)SpaceX的獵鷹火箭將花費(fèi)他們機(jī)構(gòu)40億美元;而SpaceX只花了他的十分之一。

Two new commercial models exist or are within reach: the big business of launching and maintaining swarms of communications satellites in low orbits and the niche one of tourism for the rich. The coming year will almost certainly see Virgin and Blue Origin flying passengers on sub-orbital excursions that offer the thrill of weightlessness and a view of the curved edge of Earth against the black sky of space. Virgin claims it might carry almost 1,000 wealthy adventurers a year by 2022. SpaceX is developing a reusable “Starship” larger and much more capable than its Falcons. Yusaku Maezawa, a Japanese fashion mogul, has made a down-payment for a Starship trip around the Moon; he intends to go with a crew of artists as early as 2023.

兩種新的商業(yè)模式已經(jīng)存在或即將實(shí)現(xiàn):發(fā)射和維護(hù)大量低軌道通信衛(wèi)星的大業(yè)務(wù)，以及面向富人的旅游業(yè)。在未來(lái)的一年里，維珍航空和藍(lán)色起源航空公司幾乎肯定會(huì)讓乘客進(jìn)行亞軌道旅行，體驗(yàn)失重的快感，還能看到地球彎曲的邊緣與太空黑色天空的對(duì)比。維珍航空聲稱(chēng)，到2022年，該公司每年可能會(huì)接納近1000名富有的冒險(xiǎn)家。SpaceX正在開(kāi)發(fā)一艘可重復(fù)使用的“星際飛船”，它比獵鷹號(hào)更大，能力也更強(qiáng)。日本時(shí)尚巨頭前澤友松(Yusaku Maezawa)已經(jīng)為一艘環(huán)繞月球的星際飛船支付了首付款;他打算最早在2023年和一群藝術(shù)家一起去。

詞匯

Swarm/一大群；蜂群

Excursion/偏移；遠(yuǎn)足；短程旅行

Thrill/激動(dòng)；震顫；緊張；興奮

Mogul/大亨，有權(quán)勢(shì)的人

Such possibilities could see the annual revenues of the space industry double to $800bn by 2030, according to UBS, a bank. Still further in the future, space development could remake how humanity lives. Mr Musk hopes to send settlers to Mars. Mr Bezos, the richest man in the world, wants to see millions of people making a living on space stations, perhaps before Armstrong’s footprint marks its centenary.

根據(jù)瑞士聯(lián)合銀行(UBS)的數(shù)據(jù)，到2030年，這些可能性可能使航天產(chǎn)業(yè)的年收入翻一番，達(dá)到8000億美元。在更遙遠(yuǎn)的未來(lái)，太空發(fā)展可能重塑人類(lèi)的生活方式。馬斯克希望將定居者送往火星。貝佐斯是世界上最富有的人，他希望看到數(shù)百萬(wàn)人在空間站上謀生，也許是在阿姆斯特朗的足跡紀(jì)念100周年之前。

At a time when Earth faces grim news on climate change, slow growth and fraught politics, space might seem to offer a surprising reason for optimism. But it is neither a panacea nor a bolthole. And to realise its promise, a big problem has to be resolved and a dangerous risk avoided. The big problem is developing the rule of law (see International section). The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 declares space to be “the province of all mankind” and forbids claims of sovereignty. That leaves lots of room for interpretation. America says private firms can develop space-based resources; international law is ambiguous.

在地球面臨氣候變化、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)緩慢和充斥著焦慮的政治問(wèn)題之際，太空似乎提供了一個(gè)令人意外的被看好的出路。但它既不是萬(wàn)靈藥，也不是避難所。為了實(shí)現(xiàn)移居太空的承諾，人們必須解決一個(gè)大問(wèn)題以及避免一個(gè)大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這個(gè)大問(wèn)題便是是法規(guī)的延申和發(fā)展(見(jiàn)國(guó)際部分)。1967年的《外層空間條約》(Outer Space Treaty)宣布太空為“全人類(lèi)的領(lǐng)土”，并禁止對(duì)太空提出主權(quán)要求。這給解釋留下了很大的空間。美國(guó)說(shuō)私營(yíng)公司可以開(kāi)發(fā)太空資源;國(guó)際法是模棱兩可的。

詞匯

Fraught/充滿……的；焦慮的，擔(dān)心的

Panacea/靈丹妙藥；萬(wàn)能藥

Bolthole/避難處

Sovereignty/主權(quán)；主權(quán)國(guó)家

Who would have the best claim to use the ice at the poles of the Moon for life support? Should Martian settlers be allowed to do what they like to the environment? Who is liable for satellite collisions? Space is already crowded—over 2,000 satellites are in orbit and NASA tracks over 500,000 individual pieces of debris hurtling at velocities of over 27,000km an hour.

誰(shuí)最有資格使用月球兩極的冰來(lái)供養(yǎng)生命?火星移民應(yīng)該被允許對(duì)環(huán)境做他們喜歡做的事情嗎?誰(shuí)對(duì)衛(wèi)星碰撞負(fù)責(zé)?太空已經(jīng)擁擠不堪——2000多顆衛(wèi)星在軌道上運(yùn)行，美國(guó)宇航局跟蹤的50多萬(wàn)顆碎片以每小時(shí)2.7萬(wàn)公里的速度飛馳。

詞匯

Liable/有責(zé)任的，有義務(wù)的

Debris/碎片，殘骸

Hurtle/急飛，猛烈碰撞，猛擲

Such uncertainties magnify the dangerous risk: the use of force in space. America’s unparalleled ability to project force on Earth depends on its extensive array of satellites. Other nations, knowing this, have built anti-satellite weapons, as America has itself (see Briefing). And military activity in space has no well-tested protocols or rules of engagement.

這些不確定性放大了危險(xiǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn):在太空使用武力。美國(guó)在地球上投射軍力的無(wú)與倫比的能力依賴于其廣泛的衛(wèi)星陣列。其他國(guó)家知道這一點(diǎn)，已經(jīng)制造了反衛(wèi)星武器，正如美國(guó)自己所做的那樣（見(jiàn)本期簡(jiǎn)報(bào)）。太空軍事活動(dòng)也沒(méi)有經(jīng)過(guò)良好測(cè)試的協(xié)議或交戰(zhàn)規(guī)則。

詞匯

Magnify/ 放大

Unparalleled/無(wú)比的；無(wú)雙的；空前未有的

Protocol/協(xié)議；草案

America, China and India are rapidly increasing their destructive capabilities: blinding military satellites with lasers, jamming their signals to Earth or even blowing them up, causing debris to scatter across the cosmos. They are also turning their armed forces spaceward. Mr Trump plans to set up a Space Force, the first new branch of the armed forces since the air force was created in 1947. On the eve of the annual Bastille Day military parade on July 14th Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, also announced the formation of a new space command.

美國(guó)、中國(guó)和印度正在迅速增強(qiáng)它們的破壞能力:用激光使軍用衛(wèi)星致盲，干擾它們向地球發(fā)出的信號(hào)，甚至炸毀它們，導(dǎo)致碎片散落在宇宙各處。他們還將他們的武裝力量轉(zhuǎn)向太空。特朗普計(jì)劃建立一支太空部隊(duì)，這是自1947年美國(guó)空軍成立以來(lái)，第一支新的武裝部隊(duì)。7月14日，在每年一度的巴士底日閱兵式前夕，法國(guó)總統(tǒng)埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍也宣布成立一個(gè)新的太空司令部。

詞匯

Jam/使堵塞；擠進(jìn)，使塞滿；混雜；壓碎

In Heaven as it is on Earth

在天上，如同在地上

It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soyabeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems.

把太空宣傳為浪漫的狂野西部是錯(cuò)誤的，這是一個(gè)無(wú)政府主義的邊疆，在那里人類(lèi)可以擺脫束縛，重新發(fā)現(xiàn)自己的命運(yùn)?？臻g要實(shí)現(xiàn)其承諾，就需要治理。在全球無(wú)法就鋼筋和大豆的陸上貿(mào)易規(guī)則達(dá)成一致之際，這似乎是個(gè)大問(wèn)題。但是，如果沒(méi)有它，地球之外的一切潛力充其量只能再等50年才能實(shí)現(xiàn)。在最壞的情況下，太空可能會(huì)增加地球的問(wèn)題。

詞匯

Anarchic/無(wú)政府的；無(wú)政府主義的

Fetter/束縛，禁錮