Rural Japan

日本·農(nóng)村

Old, shrinking and broke

年老、萎縮、衰敗

IMABETSU

日本·今別町

The burden of an ageing and declining population is felt most keenly in the countryside

人口老齡化和人口下降帶來(lái)的問(wèn)題在農(nóng)村最為明顯

WHEN Hisaaki Nakajima ran for mayor of Imabetsu, on the northernmost tip of Honshu, Japan’s main island, he said he had a vision of a town of 2,000 people. That may have sounded odd, given that Imabetsu had 2,700 inhabitants at the time (in 2017). But it is shrinking fast. Since Mr Nakajima took office, the population has declined by around 150, or some 6%. On a pleasant spring day the streets are almost empty; many buildings are disused. A big pa*****o parlour at the entrance to the town lies in ruin.

中島久明(Hisaaki Nakajima)競(jìng)選本州島最北端的今別町(Imabetsu)市長(zhǎng)時(shí)表示，他有一個(gè)2000人的城鎮(zhèn)的愿景。這聽(tīng)起來(lái)可能有些奇怪，因?yàn)榻駝e町當(dāng)時(shí)(2017年)有2700名居民。但這座小鎮(zhèn)正在快速衰敗。自中島康介上任以來(lái)，日本人口減少了約150人，約6%。在一個(gè)風(fēng)和日麗的春日，街上幾乎空無(wú)一人;許多建筑物被廢棄了。小鎮(zhèn)入口處的一家彈球游戲廳現(xiàn)已是一間廢墟。

詞匯

pa*****o parlour/彈球游戲

Villages and towns across Japan have been shrinking for decades because of migration to big cities. Since 2011 the national population has been falling, too. Last year it shrank by 450,000. The two trends are emptying rural areas: whereas Japan as a whole is projected to lose 16% of its population between 2015 and 2045, the population of Aomori prefecture, where Imabetsu is located, will plunge 37%, reckons the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (NIPSSR), a think-tank in Tokyo (see chart).

幾十年來(lái)，由于人口向大城市遷移，日本各地的村鎮(zhèn)規(guī)模一直在縮小。自2011年以來(lái)，全國(guó)人口也在下降。去年減少了45萬(wàn)人。這兩種趨勢(shì)（人口遷移，人口減少）在不斷“瓦解”日本農(nóng)村的規(guī)模:作為一個(gè)整體而日本預(yù)計(jì)將失去16%的人口在2015年至2045年之間,青森縣的人口即今別町所在,將暴跌37%,這是由全國(guó)人口與社會(huì)保障研究所(NIPSSR)——坐落于東京的一個(gè)智庫(kù)(見(jiàn)圖表) 所測(cè)算得出的。

詞匯

Plunge/驟降

Reckon/估計(jì)；計(jì)算

這些數(shù)字只是情況的一部分。自中島康介上任以來(lái)，今別町失去了150名人口，其中約三分之二是本地人，他們主要是尋求教育或工作的年輕人。(今別町居民的工作主要是農(nóng)業(yè)和漁業(yè)。)27歲的小村友圖(Youto Komura)在市政廳工作。在成為市長(zhǎng)之前，中島康介曾在一家縫紉店和花店工作。其他三家分別位于東京、札幌和青森市。

詞匯

Predominantly/主要地；顯著地

Women leave in greater numbers than men, says Hiroya Masuda, the author of an alarming report on rural depopulation. “There is a glass ceiling for women everywhere, but in rural areas it tends to be made of thick steel,” he says. “In offices in rural areas they tend to be pouring tea, while in Tokyo there is more chance of fulfilling jobs.” Young men who might otherwise stick around are put off by the lack of potential brides.

一份關(guān)于農(nóng)村人口減少的令人擔(dān)憂的報(bào)告的作者增田廣雅(Hiroya Masuda)說(shuō)，女性離開(kāi)農(nóng)村的人數(shù)多于男性。他表示:“女性在任何地方都有‘玻璃天花板’，但在農(nóng)村地區(qū)，‘天花板’往往是由厚鋼板制成的?！薄霸谵r(nóng)村地區(qū)的辦公室里，人們傾向于倒茶（瑣事），而在東京，人們更有可能找到滿意的（實(shí)現(xiàn)個(gè)人抱負(fù)）工作?！叭绻麤](méi)有結(jié)婚，那些可能會(huì)留下來(lái)的年輕男性就會(huì)因?yàn)檎也坏胶线m的新娘而望而卻步。

詞匯

Fulfilling/令人滿意的；能實(shí)現(xiàn)個(gè)人抱負(fù)的

This movement of young people, and Japan’s long and lengthening life expectancy, has led to an extraordinary preponderance of old people in far-flung places. Some 37% of those living in depopulated areas are over the age of 65, about ten percentage points more than the national rate, according to the government. Imabetsu has the accolade of being the town with the highest proportion of over-65s in Aomori: they are already around half the population.

年輕人的這種流動(dòng)，加上日本人的預(yù)期壽命越來(lái)越長(zhǎng)，導(dǎo)致了在偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)，老年人占了絕大多數(shù)。據(jù)政府統(tǒng)計(jì)，居住在人口稀少地區(qū)的人口中，約37%的人年齡在65歲以上，比全國(guó)平均水平高出約10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。今別町由于有著青森縣65歲以上最高人口比例而聞名， 今別町65歲以上人口已占總?cè)丝诘囊话胱笥摇?/p>

詞匯

Preponderance/優(yōu)勢(shì)；多數(shù)；占優(yōu)勢(shì)

far-flung/ ?遙遠(yuǎn)的；廣泛的

Accolade/榮譽(yù)；榮譽(yù)稱號(hào)授予儀式

Because baby-boomers are starting to die off, the depopulation of rural areas is set to spike, reckons Shiro Koike of the NIPSSR. In 2014 Mr Masuda predicted that 896 of Japan’s 1,700 municipalities would be extinct by 2040. He has now revised that to 929. In the five years to 2016, by the government’s count, 190 places disappeared from the map (although a handful of those were emptied by the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster of 2011).

全國(guó)人口與社會(huì)保障研究所的小池史郎(Shiro Koike)估計(jì)，由于嬰兒潮一代開(kāi)始死亡，農(nóng)村地區(qū)的人口減少勢(shì)必會(huì)激增。2014年，增田預(yù)測(cè)，到2040年，日本1700個(gè)城市中將有896個(gè)消失?，F(xiàn)在他把這個(gè)數(shù)字修改為929。根據(jù)政府的統(tǒng)計(jì)，在截至2016年的五年中，有190個(gè)地方從地圖上消失了(盡管其中一些地方在2011年的地震、海嘯和核災(zāi)難中被清空)。

詞匯

Municipality/市政當(dāng)局；自治市或區(qū)

Tsunami/海嘯

?

The impact of the dwindling population in rural areas is clear to see. Imabetsu has no supermarkets and no restaurants, cafés or snack bars, bar the konbini (convenience store) on the outskirts of the town. In the 1980s, residents say, there were dozens of lunch joints. Now the townsfolk must drive elsewhere or wait for occasional visits from trucks that sell vegetables.

農(nóng)村地區(qū)人口減少的影響是顯而易見(jiàn)的。今別町沒(méi)有超市，也沒(méi)有餐廳、咖啡館或小吃店，郊區(qū)的康比尼(konbini)便利店也沒(méi)有。居民們說(shuō)，上世紀(jì)80年代，這里有幾十家午餐店?，F(xiàn)在，鎮(zhèn)上的居民必須開(kāi)車去其他地方，或者等待賣蔬菜的卡車偶爾來(lái)售賣。

詞匯

Dwinde/減少，變小

The three schools have only 30 to 40 children each. From October one will stop accepting new pupils. “It is not good for the children,” says Mr Nakajima. “They need company, competition, a healthy atmosphere.” In depopulated areas primary schools have on average 118 pupils each; those in the rest of the country have 320. There are also fewer paediatricians and obstetricians than the national average.

這三所學(xué)校各只有30至40名學(xué)生。從10月起，學(xué)校將停止接收新生。中島康介表示:“這對(duì)孩子們沒(méi)有好處?！薄八麄冃枰惆?、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和健康的氛圍?！霸谌丝谙∩俚貐^(qū)，每所小學(xué)平均有118名學(xué)生;而在美國(guó)其他地區(qū)，這一數(shù)字為320。這里兒科和產(chǎn)科醫(yī)生的數(shù)量也低于全國(guó)平均水平。

詞匯

Paediatrician/兒科醫(yī)生

Obstetrician/產(chǎn)科醫(yī)師

The national government wants to raise the fertility rate from 1.4 children per woman to 1.8. To that end, it is trying to provide more support for families, such as making nursery free. It has also begun admitting more migrants, but not enough to compensate for the decline in the native population—and anyway, the government insists it will not let them settle permanently. What is more, immigrants, like Japanese themselves, prefer to live in cities.

國(guó)家政府希望將生育率從每名婦女生育1.4個(gè)孩子提高到1.8個(gè)。為此，它正試圖為家庭提供更多的支持，比如免費(fèi)提供托兒所。它也開(kāi)始接納更多的移民，但不足以彌補(bǔ)本國(guó)人口的減少——而且無(wú)論如何，政府堅(jiān)稱不會(huì)讓他們永久定居。更重要的是，移民，同日本人他們那樣，更喜歡住在城市。

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Shrinking localities tend to focus on trying to get people from elsewhere in Japan to move there. They talk not just of encouraging people to return to the countryside from cities but also of persuading people to move from towns to rural areas. Many offer families free housing and other subsidies to attract younger people. Imabetsu offers free school lunches and free cancer treatment. But the number of people such incentives attract is very small (zero in Imabetsu’s case). They “will never change the demographic dynamics of slow, steady decline”, says Peter Matanle of Sheffield University in Britain.

萎縮的地方政府傾向于集中精力讓日本其他地方的人搬到那里。他們不僅談到鼓勵(lì)人們從城市回到農(nóng)村，而且還談到說(shuō)服人們從城鎮(zhèn)搬到農(nóng)村。許多學(xué)校為家庭提供免費(fèi)住房和其他補(bǔ)貼，以吸引年輕人。今別町提供免費(fèi)的學(xué)校午餐和免費(fèi)的癌癥治療。但這種激勵(lì)措施吸引的人數(shù)非常少(今別町為零)。英國(guó)謝菲爾德大學(xué)(Sheffield University)的彼得?馬坦勒(Peter Matanle)表示，它們“永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)改變?nèi)丝诰徛€(wěn)定下降的趨勢(shì)”。

詞匯

Demographic/人口結(jié)構(gòu)的；人口統(tǒng)計(jì)的

There are some more successful campaigns, of course. Tokushima prefecture has attracted IT companies by setting up a fast internet connection. But as Karen Makishima, an MP for Kanagawa in eastern Japan, points out: “Many towns want to have people move there permanently. But Japan as a whole is losing people so if we shift people, other places lose out.” She thinks the solution is to work on attracting domestic and especially international tourism, which is growing rapidly. To that end, she is trying to encourage people to buy holiday homes in her region, or to make regular visits, in part by creating relationships between visitors and locals. The depopulating islands of the Seto Inland Sea, in south-eastern Japan, are a model for this sort of initiative. Visitors flock there to see new art installations.

當(dāng)然，還有一些更成功的舉措。德島縣通過(guò)建立快速互聯(lián)網(wǎng)連接吸引了IT公司。但正如日本東部神奈川縣議員卡倫?馬島(Karen Makishima)所指出的那樣:“許多城鎮(zhèn)希望人們永久性地遷往那里。但日本作為一個(gè)整體正在流失人口，所以如果我們轉(zhuǎn)移人口，其他地方也會(huì)流失。她認(rèn)為，解決辦法是努力吸引國(guó)內(nèi)游客，尤其是增長(zhǎng)迅速的國(guó)際游客。為了達(dá)到這個(gè)目的，她正試圖鼓勵(lì)人們?cè)谒牡貐^(qū)購(gòu)買度假屋，或進(jìn)行定期訪問(wèn)，方法之一是在游客和當(dāng)?shù)厝酥g建立關(guān)系。日本東南部瀨戶內(nèi)海(Seto Inland Sea)人口減少的島嶼，就是這類舉措的一個(gè)典范。游客蜂擁而至觀看新的藝術(shù)裝置。

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In the absence of such a lifeline, the local government in Imabetsu is struggling to pay for education, health care and other services. Its budget is 2.4bn yen ($223m) a year. Only half of that comes from the national government on a routine basis, although one-off grants and money funnelled via the prefectural government help make up the shortfall. Local tax revenue has been dwindling for years, and now brings in only 200m yen a year. The town has resorted at times to borrowing, Mr Nakajima says, but the cost of servicing the debt only adds to its fiscal problems in the long run.

在缺乏這樣一條生命線的情況下，今別町的地方政府正在努力支付教育、醫(yī)療和其他服務(wù)的費(fèi)用。其預(yù)算為每年24億日元(2.23億美元)。其中只有一半來(lái)自中央政府，盡管通過(guò)地方政府提供的一次性撥款和資金有助于彌補(bǔ)缺口。多年來(lái)，日本地方稅收一直在下降，現(xiàn)在每年的收入僅為2億日元。中島康介表示，該鎮(zhèn)有時(shí)求助于借貸，但長(zhǎng)期而言，償債成本只會(huì)加劇其財(cái)政問(wèn)題。

詞匯

Grant/撥款

Funnel/漏斗；漏斗狀物；

Prefectural/縣的

The central government has tried to help places like Imabetsu, not only by upping the budget for “rural revitalisation”, but also through a scheme called furusato nozei, which allows taxpayers to send a proportion of their taxes to a locality of their choice, instead of the one where they live (towns and villages compete for this cash by offering gifts in return, such as local sake or dried fish). The intention is for emigrants from rural areas to the cities to be able to funnel money to their hometowns.

中央政府曾試圖幫助今別町這樣的地方,不僅通過(guò)提高預(yù)算“農(nóng)村復(fù)興”,但也通過(guò)一個(gè)新的方案叫做" furusato nozei（日語(yǔ)發(fā)音，翻譯不能orz）”,納稅人可以自選一個(gè)納稅區(qū)域，按照自己的選擇來(lái)繳納一定的稅款,而不是自己居住的區(qū)域(城鎮(zhèn)和村莊通過(guò)提供禮物作為回報(bào)爭(zhēng)奪現(xiàn)金,如當(dāng)?shù)氐拿拙苹螋~(yú)干)。其目的是讓從農(nóng)村地區(qū)到城市的移民能夠把錢匯回自己的家鄉(xiāng)。

詞匯

Sake/ ?目的；利益；理由；日本米酒

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Nonetheless, small towns are having to cut back. In some areas local authorities are trying to gather services in one town, from which they offer transport to other towns and villages in a sort of hub-and-spoke model. Others are looking at ride-sharing as a way to relieve the pressure on, or replace, public transport. Private businesses such as konbini and the post office, which by law has to have outposts in remote places, are also being used to offer public services. Technology could help. “It may be fun to get pizza by drone in Tokyo, but more important is getting milk and newspapers to elderly people in rural areas,” says Ms Makishima. She also advocates online medical consultations.

盡管如此，小城鎮(zhèn)不得不削減開(kāi)支。在一些地區(qū)，地方當(dāng)局正試圖將服務(wù)集中在一個(gè)城鎮(zhèn)，從那里他們以一種中心輻射型的模式向其他城鎮(zhèn)和村莊提供交通服務(wù)。另一些人則將拼車視為緩解或替代公共交通壓力的一種方式。像康比尼和郵局這樣的私營(yíng)企業(yè)也被用來(lái)提供公共服務(wù)。根據(jù)法律規(guī)定，郵局必須在偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)設(shè)立前哨站?？萍伎梢蕴峁┲С帧akishima表示:“在東京，無(wú)人機(jī)送披薩可能很有趣，但更重要的是，這可以用來(lái)為農(nóng)村地區(qū)的老年人送牛奶和報(bào)紙。”她還提倡在線醫(yī)療咨詢。

詞匯

hub-and-spoke/中星型；中心輻射型；集中星型

Mr Nakajima’s vision for Imabetsu is modest: to promote tourism, preserve existing industries rather than try to conjure up new ones, use remote instruction to keep schools going and create a single hub for people to obtain information and services. Yet even that is a struggle, he says. For example, the town government looked at taxi-sharing, but found it unfeasible since Imabetsu has only one taxi. Next time he runs, it may have to be with a vision of even fewer people.

中島康介對(duì)今別町的愿景是謙遜的:促進(jìn)旅游業(yè)，保護(hù)現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)業(yè)，而不是試圖創(chuàng)造新的產(chǎn)業(yè)，利用遠(yuǎn)程教學(xué)來(lái)維持學(xué)校的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，創(chuàng)建一個(gè)單一的中心，讓人們獲得信息和服務(wù)。但他表示，即便如此，這也是一場(chǎng)攻堅(jiān)戰(zhàn)。例如，鎮(zhèn)政府考慮出租汽車共享，但發(fā)現(xiàn)這是不可行的，因?yàn)榻駝e町只有一輛出租車。下次他競(jìng)選時(shí)，可能不得不考慮面臨更少的人。