Film critics often complain that the box office is overrun with sequels. Now so are studios’ head offices. On November 20th Disney announced that Bob Iger, who ran the company for 15 highly successful years until he stepped down in 2020, would go back into the spotlight for a second act as chief executive. Bob Chapek, who lasted less than three years in the role and presided over a 40% drop in Disney’s share price this year, was sent sloping back to his trailer.

影評(píng)人經(jīng)常抱怨票房充斥著續(xù)篇?，F(xiàn)在，制作公司的總部也是如此。11月20日，迪士尼宣布鮑勃·艾格將重返公眾視野，再次擔(dān)任首席執(zhí)行官。在2020年卸任之前，艾格執(zhí)掌迪士尼公司15年，非常成功。鮑勃·查佩克擔(dān)任迪士尼首席執(zhí)行官不到三年，在他的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，迪士尼股價(jià)今年下跌了40%，查佩克被趕下了臺(tái)。

As any producer knows, a good leading man can make all the difference. Mr Chapek turned out to be a B-lister; Mr Iger, who transformed Disney’s fortunes, is a corporate megastar. But the creatives in Hollywood and the investors on Wall Street expecting a rapid turnaround at Disney should think again. The main problem is not at the top, but in the fundamental changes to the movie industry brought about by streaming, which have hurt every studio in Hollywood. It will take every bit of Mr Iger’s star power to turn the business back into a blockbuster.

任何制片人都知道，一個(gè)優(yōu)秀的男主角會(huì)讓一切變得不同。查佩克原來只是次優(yōu)選擇; 改變了迪士尼命運(yùn)的艾格是一位企業(yè)超級(jí)巨星。但好萊塢的創(chuàng)意人士以及期待迪士尼能迅速扭虧為盈的華爾街的投資者們應(yīng)該三思了。主要問題不在于高層，而在于流媒體給電影行業(yè)帶來的根本變化，這些變化損害了好萊塢的每一家電影公司。要想把迪士尼重新打造成一部大片，艾格將動(dòng)用他的明星影響力。

Mr Chapek was pelted with rotten tomatoes from the beginning. The pandemic, which shut cinemas and theme parks, was hardly his fault. But he frequently fluffed his lines. Unlike Mr Iger, a sunny former weatherman who charmed actors and directors, Mr Chapek, who rose through Disney’s theme-parks division, annoyed Hollywood’s highly-strung creatives, some of whom threatened to sue when their films went straight to streaming. He was no better at handling politicians. When Florida passed a law muzzling talk of sexuality and gender identity in classrooms, Mr Chapek at first took no position, then opposed it—infuriating both liberals and conservatives. Relations with investors were just as clumsy. Disney’s stock tumbled earlier this month after a poor set of quarterly earnings blindsided Wall Street. Investors already seem reassured by Mr Iger’s return: Disney’s stock rose by as much as 9% on Monday.

查佩克從一開始就受到了爛番茄的襲擊。疫情導(dǎo)致電影院和主題公園關(guān)閉，這不是他的錯(cuò)。但他經(jīng)常說錯(cuò)話。與曾是天氣預(yù)報(bào)員的艾格不同，從迪士尼主題公園部門晉升的查佩克惹惱了好萊塢緊張不安的創(chuàng)意人士，其中一些人威脅說，如果他們的電影直接流媒體播放，就會(huì)提起訴訟。他也不善于與政客打交道。當(dāng)佛羅里達(dá)州通過一項(xiàng)禁止在課堂上談?wù)撔院托詣e認(rèn)同的法律時(shí)，查佩克起初沒有表態(tài)，后來又表示反對(duì)，這激怒了自由派和保守派。與投資者的關(guān)系也同樣欠佳。本月早些時(shí)候，迪士尼公布了一組糟糕的季度收益，令華爾街措手不及。投資者似乎已經(jīng)對(duì)艾格的回歸感到放心: 迪士尼的股價(jià)在周一上漲了9%。

That seems to overestimate the role of Mr Chapek in Disney’s recent troubles. For the most part he was following the script left to him by Mr Iger, who hand-picked him as his successor. The priority of both was to shovel premium content onto Disney+, the streaming service launched in 2019 under Mr Iger. The approach has paid off, winning Disney more streaming subscriptions even than Netflix, which entered the business 12 years earlier. But it has proved far less profitable than the theatrical and cable industries that historically sustained Disney, along with its parks. Consumers can easily switch once they have binged on the latest series, meaning that ever more content is needed to keep them on board. Meanwhile, new rivals like Apple and Amazon have bottomless budgets. Last quarter Disney’s streaming division lost $1.5bn, twice as much as a year earlier.

這似乎高估了查佩克在迪士尼近期麻煩中的作用。在很大程度上，他是在按照親手挑選他作為接班人的艾格留給他的劇本行事。兩者的首要任務(wù)都是將優(yōu)質(zhì)內(nèi)容注入Disney+，這是2019年在艾格領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下推出的流媒體服務(wù)。這種做法取得了成效，為迪士尼贏得了更多的流媒體訂閱，甚至超過了早12年進(jìn)入該行業(yè)的Netflix。但事實(shí)證明，它的利潤遠(yuǎn)低于戲劇和有線電視行業(yè)，這些行業(yè)在歷史上支撐著迪士尼及其公園。消費(fèi)者一旦沉迷于最新的劇集，就可以很容易地轉(zhuǎn)換頻道，這意味著需要更多的內(nèi)容來留住他們。與此同時(shí)，蘋果和亞馬遜等新競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手有“取之不盡”的預(yù)算。上個(gè)季度，迪士尼的流媒體部門虧損15億美元，是去年同期的兩倍。

These problems are being felt across Hollywood. Netflix has lost more than half its market value this year. Indeed, Disney is better placed than most of its rivals. For now Disney+ is subsidised by the still-profitable parks and cable networks (the latter fast declining). And the company expects its streaming business to break even in 2024. It is sure to be among the survivors of the streaming wars. For others things look dicier. Warner Bros Discovery warned investors earlier this month that streaming was proving tougher than expected. Paramount Global and NBCUniversal, the latter part of Comcast, are unlikely to survive in their current form. (Some speculate that they may even be swallowed by Disney—if Disney itself is not first swallowed by Apple.)

整個(gè)好萊塢都感受到了這些問題。Netflix今年的市值已經(jīng)蒸發(fā)了一半以上。事實(shí)上，迪士尼的處境比大多數(shù)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手都要好。目前，Disney+的補(bǔ)貼來自仍然盈利的公園和有線電視網(wǎng)絡(luò)(后者正在迅速下降)。該公司預(yù)計(jì)其流媒體業(yè)務(wù)將在2024年實(shí)現(xiàn)收支平衡。它肯定是流媒體戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的幸存者之一。對(duì)其他公司來說，事情看起來沒那么確定。華納兄弟探索公司本月早些時(shí)候警告投資者，事實(shí)證明流媒體業(yè)務(wù)比預(yù)期的更為艱難。派拉蒙環(huán)球和康卡斯特旗下的NBC環(huán)球不太可能以目前的形式生存下去。(一些人推測(cè)，如果迪士尼沒有首先被蘋果吞并，他們甚至可能會(huì)被迪士尼吞并。)

As households and advertisers tighten their belts, things are only set to get harder in Hollywood. Mr Chapek may not be the last corporate leading man to bite the dust as things worsen. Having a star chief executive can certainly help. But studios are in for disappointment if they think that a change at the top is going to alter the brutal reality of Hollywood’s new economics.

隨著家庭和廣告商勒緊褲腰帶，好萊塢的日子只會(huì)越來越難過。查佩克可能不是最后一個(gè)因事情惡化而被打敗的企業(yè)領(lǐng)袖。擁有一位明星首席執(zhí)行官肯定會(huì)有所幫助。但是，如果電影公司認(rèn)為高層的變動(dòng)將改變好萊塢新經(jīng)濟(jì)的殘酷現(xiàn)實(shí)，他們將會(huì)失望。