The 90% economy, revisited

再度審視“90%經(jīng)濟(jì)份額”

Is the world economy recovering?

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)正在復(fù)蘇嗎?

A recovery is taking shape—but it is extraordinarily uneven

經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇正在成形，但卻極不平衡

Sep 16th 2020 |?

THE WORST?day of the covid-19 pandemic, at least from an economic perspective, was Good Friday. On April 10th lockdowns in many countries were at their most severe, confining people to their homes and crushing activity. Global GDP?that day was 20% lower than it would otherwise have been (see chart 1). Since then governments have lifted lockdowns. Economies have begun to recover. Analysts are pencilling in global GDP?growth of 7% or more in the third quarter of this year, compared with the second.

新冠疫情最糟糕的一天大概就是耶穌受難日了；至少從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度來看是這樣。4月10日，許多國家的封鎖達(dá)到了最嚴(yán)重的程度，人們只能呆在家里，活動(dòng)遭到破壞。那天的全球GDP比不這樣做的時(shí)候低了20%(見表1)。自那以后，各國政府解除了封鎖。經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)開始復(fù)蘇。分析師預(yù)計(jì)，今年第三季度全球GDP增幅將比第二季度達(dá)到7%或更高。

That may all sound remarkably V-shaped, but the world is still a long way from normal. Governments continue to enforce social-distancing measures to keep the virus at bay. These reduce output—by allowing fewer diners in restaurants at a time, say, or banning spectators from sports arenas. People remain nervous about being infected. Economic uncertainty among both consumers and firms is near record highs—and this very probably explains companies’ reluctance to invest (see chart 2).

這一切聽起來可能都是明顯的v型走勢(shì)，但世界離正常仍有很長的路要走。各國政府繼續(xù)實(shí)施社會(huì)隔離措施，以遏制病毒。這些措施減少了產(chǎn)出——比如，通過減少餐館同一時(shí)間的用餐數(shù)量，或者禁止觀眾進(jìn)入體育場。人們對(duì)被感染仍然感到緊張。消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性都接近歷史最高點(diǎn)——這很可能解釋了企業(yè)不愿投資的原因(見表2)。

詞匯

at bay/陷入絕境；陷入困境

Calculations by Goldman Sachs, a bank, suggest that social-distancing measures continue to reduce global GDP?by 7-8%—roughly in line with what The Economist?argued in April, when we coined the term “90% economy” to describe what would happen once lockdowns began to be lifted. Yet although the global economy is operating at about nine-tenths capacity, there is a lot of variation between industries and countries. Some are doing relatively—and surprisingly—well, others dreadfully.

高盛銀行的計(jì)算表明，社交隔離措施將繼續(xù)導(dǎo)致全球GDP下降7-8%——這與《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》在4月份提出的觀點(diǎn)大致一致，當(dāng)時(shí)我們創(chuàng)造了“90%經(jīng)濟(jì)”這個(gè)術(shù)語來描述一旦封鎖解除后將會(huì)發(fā)生的情況。然而，盡管全球經(jīng)濟(jì)以90%的產(chǎn)能運(yùn)行，但不同行業(yè)和國家之間存在很大差異。令人驚訝的是，一些團(tuán)體做得相對(duì)不錯(cuò)，而另一些則做得非常糟糕。

詞匯

?Dreadfully/ 可怕地；糟透地

Take the respective performance of goods and services. Goods have bounced back fast. Global retail sales had recovered their pre-pandemic level by July, according to research by JPMorgan Chase, another bank. Armed with $2trn-worth of cash handouts from governments since the virus struck, consumers across the world have stocked up on things to make it bearable to be at home more often, from laptops to dumbbells, which partly explains why world trade has held up better than economists had expected. Global factory output has made up nearly all the ground it lost during the lockdowns.

以商品和服務(wù)各自的表現(xiàn)為例。商品價(jià)格迅速反彈。另一家銀行摩根大通的研究顯示，到今年7月，全球零售額已恢復(fù)到大流行前的水平。自從病毒襲擊以來，各國政府發(fā)放了價(jià)值2萬億美元的現(xiàn)金，世界各地的消費(fèi)者囤積了從筆記本電腦到啞鈴等各種物品，以便能更經(jīng)常地呆在家里。這在一定程度上解釋了為什么世界貿(mào)易的表現(xiàn)好于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)期。全球工廠產(chǎn)出幾乎彌補(bǔ)了封鎖期間損失的全部份額。

Services activity is a lot further below its pre-pandemic level, largely because such industries are vulnerable to people avoiding crowds. The number of diners in restaurants remains 30-40% lower than normal worldwide, according to data from OpenTable, a booking platform. The number of scheduled flights is about half what it was just before the pandemic struck.

服務(wù)業(yè)的活動(dòng)遠(yuǎn)低于大流行前的水平，很大程度上是因?yàn)檫@類行業(yè)容易受到人們“避開人群”的影響。預(yù)訂平臺(tái)OpenTable的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全球餐廳用餐人數(shù)比正常水平低了30-40%。定期航班的數(shù)量大約是大流行爆發(fā)前的一半。

The variation in economic performance between countries is even more striking. It is common for growth rates to diverge in downturns. But the size of this year’s collapse in output means that the differences between countries’ growth rates are enormous. On September 16th the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, issued fresh economic forecasts. Like other forecasters—such as the Federal Reserve, which on the same day published new projections for the American economy—it has become less gloomy in recent months.

國與國之間經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)的差異更為驚人。在經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期，增長率出現(xiàn)差異是很常見的。但今年產(chǎn)出大幅下滑的規(guī)模意味著，各國之間的增長率差異巨大。9月16日，主要由富裕國家組成的經(jīng)合組織發(fā)布了新的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)。像其他的預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)一樣，比如美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)，在同一天發(fā)布了對(duì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的新預(yù)測(cè)，近幾個(gè)月來，它已經(jīng)變得不那么悲觀了。

Still, the growth gap between best and worst performers in the G7?group of countries in 2020 is expected to be 6.7 percentage points, far wider than that during the last global downturn a decade ago. Of the big economies, only China is set to expand in 2020. Some countries, such as America and South Korea, face a downturn but hardly a catastrophic one (see chart 3). Britain, by contrast, looks to be in line for its deepest recession since the Great Frost of 1709.

不過，在2020年，七國集團(tuán)(G7)中表現(xiàn)最好的國家和表現(xiàn)最差的國家之間的增長差距預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到6.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，遠(yuǎn)高于10年前上一次全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)的差距。在大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，只有中國將在2020年實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。一些國家，如美國和韓國，正面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，但并不是災(zāi)難性的(見表3)。相比之下，英國似乎正處于自1709年大霜凍以來最嚴(yán)重的衰退之中。

Some economists contend that the huge gap between countries is a statistical mirage, reflecting different methods of computing GDP?figures. In Britain, for instance, the way statisticians tot up government spending means that school closures and cancelled hospital appointments have a bigger impact on GDP?than elsewhere. But this effect is small—the bulk of the fall in output has come from the private sector.

一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，國與國之間的巨大差距是統(tǒng)計(jì)上的海市蜃樓，反映了計(jì)算GDP數(shù)據(jù)的不同方法。例如，在英國，統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)家計(jì)算政府支出的方式意味著學(xué)校關(guān)閉和取消醫(yī)院預(yù)約；而該做類做法對(duì)于GDP在其他任何地方的影響都大。但實(shí)際上該兩類的影響很小——產(chǎn)出的大部分下降來自私營部門。

詞匯

Mirage/海市蜃樓；幻想

tot up /合計(jì)

Instead, performance comes down to three factors. The first is industrial composition. Countries such as Greece and Italy, which rely on retail and hospitality, always looked more vulnerable than, say, Germany. Its large manufacturing sector has benefited from the global goods recovery.

相反，績效可以歸結(jié)為三個(gè)因素。首先是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)。像希臘和意大利這樣依賴零售業(yè)和酒店業(yè)的國家，看起來總是比德國這樣的國家更脆弱。其龐大的制造業(yè)得益于全球商品復(fù)蘇。

Second is confidence, which appears to be determined by a country’s experience under lockdown. Britain’s poor economic performance is likely to be related to the government’s poor handling of the pandemic. Britons seem more nervous than other Europeans about venturing outside.

其次是信心，這似乎取決于一個(gè)國家在封鎖期間的經(jīng)歷。英國糟糕的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)可能與政府對(duì)疫情處理不力有關(guān)。對(duì)于對(duì)外投機(jī)，英國人似乎比其他歐洲人更緊張不安。

Venture/冒險(xiǎn)；投機(jī)（尤指經(jīng)濟(jì)層面）

The third factor is stimulus. America’s lawmakers may be unable to agree on a top-up, but they have already enacted the world’s largest rescue package, relative to the size of its economy. The OECD?thinks it will be one of the better-performing rich countries this year.

第三個(gè)因素是刺激。美國的立法者可能無法就追加資金達(dá)成一致，但他們已經(jīng)制定了相對(duì)于其經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模而言世界上最大的救助計(jì)劃。經(jīng)合組織認(rèn)為中國將是今年表現(xiàn)較好的【】國家之一。

What next for the 90% economy? Some authorities have been forced to order further lockdowns. But others may be able to calibrate social-distancing measures better without jeopardising output. That might bring the world closer to, say, a 95% economy. Indeed, the OECD?expects global GDP?to recover further this year.

90%的經(jīng)濟(jì)接下來會(huì)怎樣?一些當(dāng)局被迫下令進(jìn)一步封鎖。但其他團(tuán)體可能能夠更好地在不危及產(chǎn)出的情況下調(diào)整社交距離措施。這可能會(huì)讓世界聯(lián)系更緊密，或者更進(jìn)一步說，95%的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。事實(shí)上，經(jīng)合組織預(yù)計(jì)今年全球GDP將進(jìn)一步復(fù)蘇。

詞匯

calibrate /校正；調(diào)整

Jeopardise/危及（等于jeopardize）；使…受危險(xiǎn)

It may be tempting to think that a vaccine, if it could be rolled out widely enough, would quickly restore normality. But there will be scars. Firms’ reluctance to invest today will mean less productive capital in the future. A growing number of American workers believe they will not be returning to their old jobs. Reallocating redundant resources towards more productive firms will take time. The Fed’s rate-setters reckon unemployment will not return to its pre-pandemic rate of 4% until 2023; analysts at Goldman Sachs think it will do so only in 2025, even though they are optimistic that a vaccine will soon be widely distributed. Much as the disease itself has long-lasting effects, the covid-induced downturn will leave the world economy feeling subpar for some time to come.

如果一種疫苗能夠在足夠大的范圍內(nèi)推廣，經(jīng)濟(jì)情況將很快恢復(fù)正常，這種想法也許很誘人。但疫情依舊會(huì)帶來創(chuàng)傷。企業(yè)今天不愿投資，這將意味著未來的生產(chǎn)性資本減少。越來越多的美國工人認(rèn)為他們不會(huì)回到原來的工作崗位。將多余的資源重新分配給生產(chǎn)力更高的公司需要時(shí)間。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的利率制定者估計(jì)，失業(yè)率要到2023年才能回到大流行前4%的水平;高盛的分析師認(rèn)為，這種情況要到2025年才能實(shí)現(xiàn)，盡管他們對(duì)疫苗很快就會(huì)廣泛分發(fā)持樂觀態(tài)度。盡管這種疾病本身具有持久的影響，但新冠肺炎引發(fā)的經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷將使世界經(jīng)濟(jì)在未來一段時(shí)間內(nèi)處于欠佳狀態(tài)。

詞匯

?Tempting/吸引人的；誘惑人的

?subpar /低于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的；在平均水平以下的