The new normal 新常態(tài)

The era of predictable unpredictability is not going away

第一段：

Is it nearly over? In 2021 people have been yearning for something like stability. Even those who accepted that they would never get their old lives back hoped for a new normal. Yet as 2022 draws near, it is time to face the world’s predictable unpredictability. The pattern for the rest of the 2020s is not the familiar routine of the pre-covid years, but the turmoil and bewilderment of the pandemic era. The new normal is already here.

快結(jié)束了嗎？2021 年人們一直向往穩(wěn)定之類的東西。即使是那些已經(jīng)接受自己過去的生活再也回不來了的人們，也希望能有一個(gè)新常態(tài)。然而，隨著 2022 年的到來，是時(shí)候面對(duì)世界的真相了：唯一可預(yù)測(cè)的就是不可預(yù)測(cè)。21 世紀(jì) 20 年代剩下的日子不會(huì)是新冠之前人們熟悉的模樣，而是疫情時(shí)代的混亂和困惑。新常態(tài)已經(jīng)來臨了。

第二段：

Remember how the terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001 began to transform air travel in waves. In the years that followed each fresh plot exposed an unforeseen weakness that required a new rule. First came locked cockpit doors, more armed air marshals and bans on sharp objects. Later, suspicion fell on bottles of liquid, shoes and laptops. Flying did not return to normal, nor did it establish a new routine. Instead, everything was permanently up for revision.

還記得 2001 年 9 月 11 日的恐怖襲擊是如何一次又一次地改變航空旅行的嗎？在隨后的幾年里，每一次新的陰謀都暴露出一個(gè)不曾預(yù)見的弱點(diǎn)，然后就需要一個(gè)全新的規(guī)則。首先是鎖上的駕駛艙門，更多的武裝空警和禁止尖銳物品。后來，嫌疑就落到了瓶裝液體、鞋子和筆記本電腦上。飛行沒有恢復(fù)正常，也沒有建立新的常態(tài)。相反，一切永遠(yuǎn)都處在隨時(shí)可能被修改的狀態(tài)。

第三段：

The world is similarly unpredictable today and the pandemic is part of the reason. For almost two years people have lived with shifting regimes of mask-wearing, tests, lockdowns, travel bans, vaccination certificates and other paperwork. As outbreaks of new cases and variants ebb and flow, so these regimes can also be expected to come and go. That is the price of living with a disease that has not yet settled into its endemic state.

今天的世界同樣不可預(yù)測(cè)，部分就是由疫情導(dǎo)致的。近兩年來，人們生活在不斷變化的制度中：戴口罩、核酸檢測(cè)、旅行限制、疫苗接種證明和其他的文書工作。隨著新病例和新變種爆發(fā)的起起落落，這些政策也變化不定。這就是與一種尚未成為流行病的疾病共存的代價(jià)。

第四段：

And covid-19 may not be the only such infection. Although a century elapsed between the ravages of Spanish flu and the coronavirus, the next planet-conquering pathogen could strike much sooner. Germs thrive in an age of global travel and crowded cities. The proximity of people and animals will lead to the incubation of new human diseases. Such zoonoses, which tend to emerge every few years, used to be a minority interest. For the next decade, at least, you can expect each new outbreak to trigger paroxysms of precaution.

而且新冠可能不是唯一一個(gè)這樣的傳染病。盡管西班牙流感和新冠的肆虐相隔了一個(gè)世紀(jì)，但下一個(gè)征服地球的病原體可能會(huì)來得更快。細(xì)菌在一個(gè)全球旅行和擁擠城市成為常態(tài)的時(shí)代里繁殖。人與動(dòng)物的親近會(huì)導(dǎo)致新的人類疾病出現(xiàn)。這種每隔幾年就會(huì)出現(xiàn)一次的動(dòng)物源性疾病，過去只和少數(shù)人有關(guān)。（然而）至少在接下來的十年里，可以預(yù)見每次新的（病毒）爆發(fā)都會(huì)迅速引發(fā)相應(yīng)的預(yù)防措施。

第五段：

Covid has also helped bring about today’s unpredictable world indirectly, by accelerating change that was incipient. The pandemic has shown how industries can be suddenly upended by technological shifts. Remote shopping, working from home and the Zoom boom were once the future. In the time of covid they rapidly became as much of a chore as picking up the groceries or the daily commute.

新冠還通過加速剛剛萌芽的某些變化，間接地促成了今天不可預(yù)測(cè)的世界。疫情讓我們看到工廠是如何一下子被科技顛覆的。遠(yuǎn)程購(gòu)物、居家工作和 Zoom 的興起曾經(jīng)只是對(duì)未來的想象。在疫情期間它們迅速變成了一種像買食物及日用品或每天通勤一樣的例行工作。

第六段：

Big technological shifts are nothing new. But instead of taking centuries or decades to spread around the world, as did the printing press and telegraph, new technologies become routine in a matter of years. Just 15 years ago, modern smartphones did not exist. Today more than half of the people on the planet carry one. Any boss who thinks their industry is immune to such wild dynamism is unlikely to last long.

重大的技術(shù)變革并不是什么新鮮事。但是，新技術(shù)并不像印刷機(jī)或電報(bào)那樣需要幾個(gè)世紀(jì)或幾十年的時(shí)間才能在全世界傳播開來，而是在短短幾年內(nèi)就成為常規(guī)。就在 15 年前，現(xiàn)代智能手機(jī)還不存在。今天，地球上超過一半的人都帶著一個(gè)。任何認(rèn)為自己的行業(yè)不受這種瘋狂活力影響的老板都不太可能做的長(zhǎng)久。

第七段：

The pandemic may also have ended the era of low global inflation that began in the 1990s and was ingrained by economic weakness after the financial crisis of 2007-09. Having failed to achieve a quick recovery then, governments spent nearly $11trn trying to ensure that the harm caused by the virus was transient.

疫情還可能結(jié)束了始于 1990 年代、在 2007-09 年金融危機(jī)后因經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟而根深蒂固的全球低通脹時(shí)代。由于未能實(shí)現(xiàn)快速恢復(fù)，各國(guó)政府花費(fèi)了近 11 萬億美元試圖確保新冠病毒造成的傷害只是暫時(shí)的。

第八段：

They broadly succeeded, but fiscal stimulus and bunged-up supply chains have raised global inflation above 5%. The apparent potency of deficit spending will change how recessions are fought. As they raise interest rates to deal with inflation, central banks may find themselves in conflict with indebted governments. Amid a burst of innovation around cryptocoins, central-bank digital currencies and fintech, many outcomes are possible. A return to the comfortable macroeconomic orthodoxies of the 1990s is one of the least likely.

各國(guó)政府大體上取得了成功，但財(cái)政刺激和堵塞的供應(yīng)鏈已經(jīng)使全球通脹超過了 5%。赤字開支的顯著威力將改變對(duì)抗經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的方式。在提高利率應(yīng)對(duì)通脹之際，央行可能發(fā)現(xiàn)自己與負(fù)債累累的政府發(fā)生了沖突。在圍繞加密貨幣、央行數(shù)字貨幣和金融科技的一系列創(chuàng)新中，許多結(jié)果都是可能的?；氐缴鲜兰o(jì) 90 年代那種舒適的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)正統(tǒng)觀念是最不可能的。

第九段：

The pandemic has also soured relations between the world’s two great powers. America blames China’s secretive Communist Party for failing to contain the virus that emerged from Wuhan at the end of 2019. Some claim that it came from a Chinese laboratory there—an idea China has allowed to fester through its self-defeating resistance to open investigations. For its part, China, which has recorded fewer than 6,000 deaths, no longer bothers to hide its disdain for America, with its huge death toll. In mid-December this officially passed 800,000 (The Economist estimates the full total to be almost 1m). The contempt China and America feel for each other will heighten tensions over Taiwan, the South China Sea, human rights in Xinjiang and the control of strategic technologies.

疫情也使世界兩大強(qiáng)國(guó)之間的關(guān)系惡化了。......。就中國(guó)而言，因?yàn)樗劳鋈藬?shù)不到 6000 人，故而不再愿意掩飾對(duì)美國(guó)（龐大死亡人數(shù)）的鄙視。12 月中旬，這一數(shù)字正式超過了 80 萬（據(jù)《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》估計(jì)，總數(shù)將接近 100 萬）。中美對(duì)彼此的鄙視將加劇在臺(tái)灣、中國(guó)南海、新疆人權(quán)和戰(zhàn)略科技控制等問題上的緊張局勢(shì)。

第十段：

In the case of climate change, the pandemic has served as an emblem of interdependence. Despite the best efforts to contain them, virus particles cross frontiers almost as easily as molecules of methane and carbon dioxide. Scientists from around the world showed how vaccines and medicines can save hundreds of millions of lives. However, hesitancy and the failure to share doses frustrated their plans. Likewise, in a world that is grappling with global warming, countries that have everything to gain from working together continually fall short. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, the accumulation of long-lasting greenhouse gases in the atmosphere means that extreme and unprecedented weather of the kind seen during 2021 is here to stay.

在氣候變化方面，疫情又是（國(guó)家間）相互依存的象征。盡管盡了最大的努力來控制它們，病毒顆?？缭竭吔鐜缀鹾图淄楹投趸挤肿右粯尤菀?。來自世界各地的科學(xué)家展示了疫苗和藥物如何拯救數(shù)億人的生命。然而，猶豫不決和未能分享針劑挫敗了他們的計(jì)劃。同樣，在一個(gè)正在努力應(yīng)對(duì)全球變暖的世界上，如果各個(gè)國(guó)家共同努力則一切都不是問題，但它們卻總是掉鏈子。即使在最樂觀的情況下，大氣中長(zhǎng)期積累的溫室氣體也意味著， 2021 年出現(xiàn)的那種前所未見的極端天氣將持續(xù)下去。

第十一段：

The desire to return to a more stable, predictable world may help explain a 1990s revival. You can understand the appeal of going back to a decade in which superpower competition had abruptly ended, liberal democracy was triumphant, suits were oversized, work ended when people left the office, and the internet was not yet disrupting cosy, established industries or stoking the outrage machine that has supplanted public discourse.

回到一個(gè)更穩(wěn)定、更可預(yù)測(cè)之世界的愿望也許可以解釋一場(chǎng) 90 年代復(fù)古潮流。你可以理解回到那十年的吸引力有多大：超級(jí)大國(guó)間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)突然結(jié)束，自由民主取得了勝利，西裝寬松，離開辦公室后就沒有工作，而且互聯(lián)網(wǎng)還沒有顛覆舒適成熟的各行各業(yè)、也沒有發(fā)動(dòng)取代了公共討論的憤怒機(jī)器。

第十二段：

That desire is too nostalgic. It is worth notching up some of the benefits that come with today’s predictable unpredictability. Many people like to work from home. Remote services can be cheaper and more accessible. The rapid dissemination of technology could bring unimagined advances in medicine and the mitigation of global warming.

這種愿望過于懷舊?，F(xiàn)在，可預(yù)測(cè)的不可預(yù)測(cè)性帶來的一些好處（其實(shí)是）值得的。許多人喜歡在家工作。遠(yuǎn)程服務(wù)可以更便宜、更方便。技術(shù)的迅速傳播可能帶來醫(yī)學(xué)和解決全球變暖方面難以想象的進(jìn)步。

第十三段：

Even so, beneath it lies the unsettling idea that once a system has crossed some threshold, every nudge tends to shift it further from the old equilibrium. Many of the institutions and attitudes that brought stability in the old world look ill-suited to the new. The pandemic is like a doorway. Once you pass through, there is no going back.

即便如此，在它的背后隱藏著一種令人不安的想法，即一旦一個(gè)系統(tǒng)跨過了某個(gè)門檻，每一次推動(dòng)都會(huì)使它進(jìn)一步遠(yuǎn)離舊的平衡。許多為舊世界帶來穩(wěn)定的制度和態(tài)度看起來都不適合新世界。疫情就像一扇大門，一旦跨過了，就再也回不去了。