文章來源：

《經濟學人》Oct 28th 2023 期 Finance & economics 欄目 Social trends 社會趨勢

視頻總結：

疫情下新生活方式：隱士習慣悄悄改變我們的消費。

文章探討了疫情期間的新消費趨勢，重點關注了?"隱士習慣"?的興起，以及社交消費的減少。在大流行期間，人們減少了在服務領域的支出，取而代之的是購買家居用品和各種物品。隨著人們更多地在家中度過時間，商業(yè)和經濟模式也正在適應這一變化，形成了全新的消費趨勢。此篇文章強調了這一現(xiàn)象的影響，包括服務業(yè)的下降和家庭相關支出的增加，以及全球范圍內的社交消費模式的變化。

這是一個耳熟能詳?shù)墓适拢涸诖罅餍衅陂g，每個人都待在家里，除了在亞馬遜上剁手購物外，幾乎無事可做，結果他們堆滿了購物車，購買了各種東西（或者用經濟學的術語來說是“商品”）。新消費者：這其實是與以往不同的消費趨勢，也就是說，發(fā)達國家的人們越來越愿意在各種服務上花錢。

關鍵點一：服務消費逆勢下降

根據(jù)以往的趨勢，《經濟學人》估計，如果疫情沒有發(fā)生，每年服務消費將減少6000億美元。這意味著人們本可以享受更多的服務，但疫情改變了一切。

隱士：與娛樂和社交相關的支出出現(xiàn)了最大的下降，而更多的支出則花在家庭用品上，比如家具、廚房設備、衣服、食物和酒。這就是為什么我們現(xiàn)在談論“隱士習慣”。這場流行病讓我們對待家里的生活更為舒適，而這些隱士習慣似乎會長期存在。

關鍵點二：隱士習慣改變消費

例如，在封鎖時間較長的日本，隱士習慣顯而易見：商業(yè)用途的餐廳預訂下降了大約50%。而在封鎖時間較短的國家，如新西蘭和韓國，支出模式更接近大流行前的水平。

軼事與數(shù)據(jù)：盡管似乎更難訂餐廳，但這可能更多是因為供應不足，而不是外出就餐需求的激增。在酒店業(yè)工作的美國人數(shù)量遠低于2019年。

擁有Olive Garden等連鎖店的達頓餐廳最近表示，其客流量已經接近新冠疫情爆發(fā)前的水平，這顯示了我們都變得更像隱士了。用于社交活動的支出已經減少，取而代之的是更孤立的追求，比如園藝、家庭烹飪、閱讀雜志和照顧寵物。實際上，幾乎每個人都認識一位在疫情期間領養(yǎng)了一只“新冠小狗”的人。

關鍵點三：社交消費減少，隱士生活崛起

這個新生活方式正在改變我們的消費習慣，我們更愿意在家中度過時間，進行各種家庭活動，而不是外出社交和消費服務。這意味著商業(yè)和經濟模式也正在適應這一變化，從而形成了全新的消費趨勢。

?視頻文本：

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In some ways?covid-19 was a?blip. After soaring in 2020, unemployment across the rich world quickly dropped to pre-pandemic lows. Countries re-attained their pre-covid GDP?in short order.?And yet, more than two years after lockdowns were lifted, at least one change is enduring: consumer habits across the rich world have shifted decisively, and perhaps permanently.?Welcome to the age of the hermit.

從某些方面來說，新冠疫情只是個小插曲。發(fā)達國家的失業(yè)率在 2020 年飆升后迅速回落至疫情前的低點。各國GDP很快恢復到疫情前的水平。然而，疫情解封兩年多后，至少有一個變化是持久的：發(fā)達國家的消費習慣已經發(fā)生了決定性的、或許是永久性的改變。歡迎來到隱士時代。

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Before covid, the share of consumer spending devoted to services was rising steadily.?As societies became richer, they sought more luxury experiences, health care and financial planning.?Then in 2020 spending on services, from hotel stays to hair cuts, collapsed.?With people spending more time at home, demand for goods jumped, with a rush for computer equipment and exercise bikes.

在新冠疫情之前，消費者在服務方面的支出比例穩(wěn)步上升。由于社會變得更加富裕，人們尋求更多的奢華體驗、醫(yī)療保健和財務規(guī)劃。然后到了 2020 年，酒店住宿、理發(fā)等服務支出大幅下降。由于呆在家里的時間越來越長，人們對商品的需求猛增，電腦設備和健身自行車等產品供不應求。

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Three years on, the share of spending devoted to services remains below its pre-covid level. Relative to its pre-covid trend, the decline is sharper still.?Rich-world consumers are spending around $600bn a year less on services than you might have expected in 2019.?In particular, people are less interested in leisure activities that take place outside the home, including hospitality and recreation.?Money is being redirected to goods, ranging from durables like chairs and fridges, to things such as clothes, food and wine.

3年過去了，服務相關支出比例仍低于疫情前的水平。與新冠疫情前的趨勢相比，下降幅度更大。發(fā)達國家消費者現(xiàn)在每年的服務相關支出比2019 年預期少了約 6000 億美元。特別是，人們對戶外休閑活動（包括酒店住宿和娛樂）不太感興趣。人們的資金用于購買商品，包括椅子和冰箱等耐用品，以及衣物、食品和酒。

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In countries that spent less time in lockdown, hermit habits have not become?ingrained.?Elsewhere, though, the behaviour looks?pathological.?In the Czech Republic, which was?whacked?by covid, the services share is three percentage points below trend. America is not far off.?Japan has witnessed a 50% decline in restaurant bookings for client entertainment and other business purposes.?Pity the drunken salaryman staggering round Tokyo’s pleasure districts: he is an endangered species.

在封鎖時間不長的國家，隱士習慣尚未根深蒂固。但在其他地方，這種行為看起來像是一種病態(tài)。捷克共和國曾遭受新冠疫情重創(chuàng)，服務業(yè)份額比正常水平低了三個百分點。美國也差不多。日本的客戶娛樂和其他商業(yè)相關的餐廳預訂量下降了 50%。醉醺醺的工薪族在東京的娛樂區(qū)踉踉蹌蹌地走來走去，真可憐：他們是瀕危物種。

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At first glance, the figures are difficult to?reconcile?with the anecdotes.?Isn’t it harder than ever to get a table at a restaurant? Yet the true source of the crowding is not sky-high demand, but constrained supply.?These days fewer people want to work in hospitality—in America employment in the industry remains lower than in 2019.?And pandemic disruption means many new hotels and restaurants that would have opened in 2020 and 2021 never did. The number of hotels in Britain, at around 10,000, has not grown since 2019.

乍一看，這些數(shù)據(jù)與趣聞軼事似乎不太一致?，F(xiàn)在在餐廳里找一個座位不比以前更難了嗎？然而，餐廳人滿為患的真正原因并不是需求過高，而是供應緊張。如今，越來越少的人愿意從事酒店業(yè)——在美國，酒店業(yè)的就業(yè)人數(shù)仍然低于 2019 年。疫情中斷意味著許多原計劃在2020 年和 2021 年開業(yè)的新酒店和餐館沒開業(yè)。英國的酒店數(shù)量約為1萬家，自 2019 年以來一直沒有增長。

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Firms are noticing the $600bn shift.?In a recent earnings call an executive at Darden Restaurants, which runs one of America’s finest restaurant chains, Olive Garden, noted that, relative to pre-covid times, “we’re probably in that 80% range in terms of traffic”.?At Home Depot, which sells tools to improve homes, revenue is up by about 15% on 2019 in real terms.?Goldman Sachs, a bank, tracks the share prices of companies that benefit when people stay at home (such as e-commerce firms) and those that thrive when people are out (such as airlines).?Even today, the market looks favourably upon firms that serve stay-at-homers.

各公司都注意到了 6000 億美元消費習慣的變化。在最近的一次財報電話會議上，美國著名連鎖餐廳“橄欖園”的母公司“達登餐飲集團”的高管說：“我們的客流量恢復到疫情前水平的80% 左右?！奔业脤毠句N售改善家居環(huán)境的工具，它的實際營收與2019年相比增長了15%左右。高盛銀行追蹤了人們居家時受益的公司（例如電子商務公司）和人們外出時蓬勃發(fā)展的公司（例如航空公司）的股價。即使在今天，市場仍然看好為居家者提供服務的公司。

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Why has hermit behaviour endured??The first possible reason is that some?tremulous?folk remain afraid of infection, whether by covid or something else.?In Britain, car use is in line with the pre-covid norm, whereas public-transport use is well down.?People also seem less keen on up-close-and-personal services.?In America spending on hairdressing and?personal grooming?is 20% below its pre-covid trend, while spending on cosmetics, perfumes and nail preparations is up by a quarter.

為什么“隱士”行為還在持續(xù)？第一個可能的原因是，一些膽小的人仍然害怕受到感染，無論是新冠病毒還是其他疾病。在英國，汽車使用量與新冠疫情前水平一致，但公共交通的使用量卻大幅下降。人們似乎也不那么熱衷于近距離的個人服務。在美國，個人美容美發(fā)的支出比新冠疫情前水平低了 20%，而化妝品、香水和美甲產品的支出卻增長了1/4。

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The second reason relates to work patterns.?Across the rich world people now work about one day a week at home, according to Cevat Giray Aksoy of King’s College London and colleagues.?This cuts demand for services bought at the office, including lunches, and raises demand for do-it-yourself goods.?Last year Italians spent 34% more on glassware, tableware and household?utensils?than in 2019.

第二個原因與工作模式有關。根據(jù)倫敦國王學院的塞瓦特·吉雷·阿克索伊及其同事的研究，在發(fā)達國家，人們現(xiàn)在每周大約有一天在家工作。這減少了在辦公室購買的服務（包括午餐外賣）的需求，但增加了自制產品的需求。去年，意大利人在玻璃器皿、餐具和家庭用具上的支出比 2019 年增加了 34%。

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The third relates to values.?Covid may have made people genuinely more hermit-like.?According to official data from America, last year people slept 11 minutes more a day than in 2019.?They also spent less on clubs that require membership and other social activities, and more on?solitary?pursuits, such as gardening and pets.?Meanwhile, global online searches for “Patience”, a card game otherwise known as Solitaire, are running at about twice their pre-pandemic level.?Covid’s biggest legacy, it seems, has been to pull people apart.

第三個與價值觀有關。新冠疫情可能使人們更加愿意過隱居生活。根據(jù)美國官方數(shù)據(jù)，去年人們每天的睡眠時間比 2019 年多了 11 分鐘。人們在會員俱樂部和其他社交活動上的花費也減少了，而在園藝和寵物等獨處活動的花費增加了。與此同時，一款名為"挑戰(zhàn)耐心"的紙牌游戲（又稱"精靈紙牌"）的全球在線搜索量約為疫情前的2倍。看來，新冠疫情最大的遺產就是拉開了人與人之間的距離。