TED演講者：Ralph Chami / 拉爾夫·沙米

演講標題：What a living whale is worth -- and why the economy should protect nature / 一條活鯨魚值多少錢？為什么經濟體系該保護大自然？

內容概要：How much is one living blue whale worth in the fight against climate change? A lot more than you may think, says financial economist Ralph Chami. He explains the value of bringing the language of dollars and cents to conservation -- and offers his vision of a new economy that would profit off regenerating nature, not extracting from it.

在對抗氣候變化的這場戰(zhàn)役中，一條活藍鯨值多少錢？比你想象的多得多，金融經濟學家拉爾夫·沙米（Ralph Chami）如是說道。他展示了將金錢的語言帶入保護工作的價值，暢想了一個新的經濟體制，借此我們能讓大自然煥發(fā)生機而不是一味索取。

*******************************************

【1】In 2017, I confided in a dear friend of mine that my lifelong wish was to see the blue whales.

2017 年, 我向一位摯友透露了 我此生的愿望就是 想親眼看到藍鯨。

【2】Before I knew it, I found myself with a bunch of researchers in the Sea of Cortez studying the blue whales.

我還沒反應過來, 就和一群研究人員 一起踏上了科爾特斯海 （Sea of Cortez）的藍鯨研究之旅。

【3】We used to be in a boat 25 foot long.

我們一起乘上了一艘 25 英尺長的船。

【4】And next to us ...

我們身邊的是……

【5】is this majestic creature feeding gracefully next to us.

這個龐然大物, 就在我們旁邊安詳地進食。

【6】Now you have to understand, at that point in time, I knew nothing about blue whales, or whales in general.

你得知道一點,在那個時刻, 我對藍鯨,或者說鯨魚 這整個物種都一竅不通。

【7】I'm just a financial economist.

我只是個金融經濟學家。

【8】But I learned something from them, which was really incredible.

但是我從它們的身上 學到了一些很神奇的東西。

【9】It was already known in the science that whales capture so much carbon on their body and indirectly.

科學上已經表明鯨魚 會在它們的身體里或間接地 捕獲大量碳。

【10】And that's, of course, very important for us because we are all facing the climate calamity and we are all talking about how to grab carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

這當然對我們來說非常重要, 因為我們都面臨著氣候災難, 我們都在討論如何從大氣中 捕獲二氧化碳。

【11】Well, it turns out that the whales grab so much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere -- by the way, they eat and they poop.

結果表明鯨魚 會從大氣中抓取大量二氧化碳, 通過進食和排泄這一過程。

【12】Yeah. It's all about food.

沒錯。圍繞著食物。

【13】So how does the whale system work?

鯨魚系統(tǒng)是什么樣的？

【14】Well, it starts in the oceans.

從海洋開始。

【15】There's these microscopic organisms called phytoplankton.

海洋中有一些微生物, 稱為“浮游植物”。

【16】Those phytoplankton do something really incredible.

這些浮游植物的作用非常神奇。

【17】They grab so much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and they return oxygen to all of us.

它們從大氣中吸收二氧化碳, 再以氧氣的形式返還給我們。

【18】Now how much carbon dioxide do they grab from the atmosphere?

那它們會從大氣中 吸收多少二氧化碳呢？

【19】About 37 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

從大氣中吸收 大約 370 億噸二氧化碳。

【20】Truly the lungs of the planet are in the ocean.

地球之肺其實在海里。

【21】Now, if you want to visualize what 37 gigatons mean, that's the equivalent of the carbon that is grabbed by four Amazon forests per year.

如果你想對 370 億噸有點概念, 這相當于四個亞馬遜雨林 每年吸收的碳量。

【22】That's how much is being sucked in by these photosynthetic organisms.

這就是這些光合生物吸收的量。

【23】Now larger creatures called krill love to eat phytoplankton directly or indirectly.

磷蝦這種稍大一點的生物 會直接或間接地吃掉浮游生物。

【24】And the whales love to feed on the krill.

然后鯨魚會吃掉磷蝦。

【25】They feed so much on the krill that they grow bigger and bigger, and they store carbon in their body.

它們吃掉了大量的磷蝦, 越長越大, 碳就存儲在了它們的身體里。

【26】How much carbon do they store in their body?

它們的身體里有多少碳呢？

【27】Roughly about seven to nine tons of carbon on their body.

它們的身體里大約有 7 到 9 噸碳。

【28】If you want to convert that to carbon dioxide, that's about 33 tons of carbon dioxide being kept out of the atmosphere on the body of a single whale.

如果將其轉換為二氧化碳, 約等于從大氣中 抽取了 33 噸二氧化碳, 存在一條鯨魚體內。

【29】If you want to visualize that, that’s the work of 1,500 trees on the body of a single whale.

如果要類比一下, 那就是 1500 棵樹的勞動成果 裝在了一條鯨魚的體內。

【30】OK?

好嗎？

【31】But those guys, because they eat a lot, what do you do next?

但是這些家伙,由于它們吃得多, 那會怎么樣？

【32】You poop a lot.

拉的也多。

【33】And their poop turns out to be incredibly important because it fertilizes the phyto.

它們的糞便驚人地重要, 因為滋養(yǎng)了浮游生物。

【34】So you have this wonderful cycle.

于是就有了一個美妙的循環(huán)。

【35】OK? The whale feeds on the krill, the krill feeds on the phyto, and the phyto eats the poop of the whales to get more active.

鯨魚吃磷蝦,磷蝦吃浮游生物, 浮游生物吃鯨魚的糞便增加活力。

【36】And when the phyto gets more active, it grabs more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

浮游生物越活躍, 就會從大氣吸收更多的二氧化碳。

【37】So just imagine: the whales, they capture carbon on their body.

想象一下: 鯨魚用身體捕獲碳。

【38】Unfortunately, at some point they die, and they're so heavy they sink to the bottom of the ocean.

不幸的是,某一天它們死了, 但是它們太重了, 只能沉到海底。

【39】And anything below a thousand meters is sequestered almost forever.

海底一千米以下的萬物 幾乎被永久封存了。

【40】And through their poop they also fertilize phyto, making phyto even more active, grabbing more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

它們的糞便依舊 在滋養(yǎng)著浮游生物, 讓浮游生物越來越活躍, 從大氣中捕獲更多的二氧化碳。

【41】So in a sense, the whales are incredible allies in the fight against climate change.

某種意義上,鯨魚是我們 對抗氣候變化的重要盟友。

【42】Now that's good news, right? Yeah.

這是個好消息,對吧？是的。

【43】Except that whales are dying.

除了一點,鯨魚瀕危了。

【44】They're dying from ship strikes.

由于與船只相撞,它們?yōu)l危了。

【45】They're dying from pollution, they're dying from entanglements.

由于污染、被漁網纏住, 它們?yōu)l危了。

【46】In fact, they're dying because our current economic system puts a zero value on a living whale.

實際上,它們?yōu)l危的原因是 我們當前的經濟系統(tǒng) 完全不在意活鯨魚的價值。

【47】But chop a whale, sell it for its meat, it acquires a value.

但是切開鯨魚,出售鯨肉, 會產生價值。

【48】The value of a living whale is zero, zero dollars, zero in any currency.

活鯨魚的價值是零,零美元, 任何貨幣單位都是零。

【49】I'm a financial economist.

我是一名金融經濟學家。

【50】And I'm listening to these scientists bemoaning what's happening to the whales.

我聽到了科學家們 為鯨魚的遭遇嘆息。

【51】And I wanted to help. I didn't know how to help.

我想幫忙,但是不知道怎么幫。

【52】And I thought, wait a minute.

然后我想,等一下。

【53】Maybe I can bring your message to the audiences around the world.

也許我可以把 你們的信息傳達給世界。

【54】Maybe I can translate all of that value, those services they do for us in a language that we can all understand.

也許我可以把這些 價值和鯨魚為我們做的事 翻譯成我們都能理解的語言。

【55】Unfortunately, it's a language of dollars and cents.

不幸的是,這是金錢的語言。

【56】So I set out with my team to value the services of a whale but one service -- because the whales do a whole host of things.

所以我?guī)ьI著團隊 打算評估鯨魚所做之事的價值, 但是只評估那么一件事, 因為鯨魚會做很多很多事。

【57】But I just wanted to value one thing, which is what is the value of their carbon sequestration service to us?

但是我只想評估一件事, 即鯨魚的固碳行為 對我們來說值多少錢？

【58】Now how would you do something like that? After all, the whale is a living system.

怎么評估呢？ 鯨魚畢竟是一個活物。

【59】The whale captures carbon on her body, and she gives birth to baby whales who also grow up to capture carbon on their body.

鯨魚把碳存在她的身體里, 然后生了小鯨魚, 小鯨魚長大了 也會用身體捕獲碳。

【60】And they give birth to whales and so forth, and indirectly through the fertilization of phyto.

然后不斷繁衍生息, 還會間接地通過滋養(yǎng)浮游生物的 這一過程固碳。

【61】So how would you do something like this?

怎么估值呢？

【62】Well, to do that, I had to resort to what I do best, which is valuation.

要估值的話, 我得發(fā)揮我的長項, 也就是估價。

【63】I looked at it, I said, wait a minute.

我看了看說,等一下。

【64】This looks like a share of stock that pays dividends.

它們就像是會分紅的股票。

【65】Except those dividends are live dividends. They give birth to more dividends.

但是分紅是動態(tài)的, 還會越滾越多。

【66】So if I were to track the whale over her lifetime and keep track of all these dividends into the future, and then multiply that by the price of carbon, and discount that all the way to the present,

如果我追蹤一條鯨魚的一生, 記錄下所有分紅,直至終點, 再乘以碳的價格, 再將所有未來的分紅 折現至當下,

【67】I can figure out what is the present value, discounted present value, of the lifetime earnings of a single whale.

就可以得出目前的價值, 一條鯨魚一生創(chuàng)造的價值 折現到現在的價值。

【68】Would you like to know how much?

你們想知道是多少嗎？

【69】(Applause) Would you like to know how much?

（掌聲） 你們想知道是多少嗎？

【70】Audience: Yes!

觀眾:想！

【71】RC: At least three million dollars.

拉爾夫·沙米（Ralph Chami）: 至少三百萬美元。

【72】At least.

還只是“至少”。

【73】Because I'm leaving so much out of this.

因為我舍去了很多。

【74】But I just wanted to tell the good news that I heard on that boat.

但是我只是想分享 我在那艘船上聽到的好消息。

【75】I didn't know what to do. I was trying to help them out.

我不知道該做些什么。 我只是想幫幫它們。

【76】But there's more good news. Would you like to hear it?

但是還有更多的好消息。 你們想聽嗎？

【77】Audience: Yes!

觀眾:想！

【78】RC: Their cousins on land, the elephants in the forests of Africa, in the Congo Basin, they do the same thing.

沙米:它們在陸地上的遠親, 非洲剛果盆地森林里的大象, 也在做同樣的事。

【79】Turns out the way they walk and they eat and they poop, they increase carbon sequestration in the trees, in the forests between seven and 14 percent.

它們走路、進食、排泄的方式, 也在增加樹木中、 森林里的碳捕獲量, 增加了 7% 至 14%。

【80】Just imagine, just by frolicking around, they're helping us to grab carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and fix it.

想象一下, 它們只是在四處玩耍, 就能幫我們從大氣中捕獲二氧化碳, 解決這個問題。

【81】So I thought, hey, maybe, maybe we can value their services to.

所以我在想,也許我們 也能為它們的行為估個價。

【82】Right? Same thing.

對吧？一個道理。

【83】But again, use the same model of valuation.

但是使用同樣的估值模型。

【84】You follow the same methodology, and you discount all of that to the present.

使用同樣的方法, 折現得出此時此刻的價值。

【85】And you ask yourself, what is the value of a single elephant's carbon sequestration service?

你問問自己, 一頭大象的固碳行為 值多少錢？

【86】Would you like to know how much?

你們想知道值多少嗎？

【87】Audience: Yes!

觀眾:想！

【88】RC: Here we go.

沙米:來吧。

【89】2.6 million dollars.

260 萬美元。

【90】Would you like to hear some more good news?

還想聽點別的好消息嗎？

【91】Audience: Yes!

觀眾:想！

【92】RC: Aside from forests -- because we are land people, we just think of forests -- go a little bit into the water.

沙米:除了森林…… 由于我們生活在陸地上, 我們只會想到森林…… 我們再拓展一下,到水里去。

【93】Seagrass, saltmarsh mangroves, kelp forests, peatlands, wetlands -- these are living systems that suck in so much carbon dioxide beyond your imagination, and they keep it forever in their roots as long as you leave them alone and you look after them.

海草、鹽沼紅樹林、 海藻森林、泥炭地、濕地, 它們都是以超出想象的水平 吸收二氧化碳的生物系統(tǒng), 它們把碳永久地封存在根系中, 只要你去關愛它們, 不去干涉它們。

【94】So ...

所以……

【95】If you think these numbers are big, wait till you see what I'm about to tell you next.

如果你覺得數額不菲, 那你得聽聽我接下來要說的話。

【96】In seagrass alone, seagrass alone, carbon sequestration.

單看海草, 僅僅是海草的固碳效果。

【97】How much do you think is the value of the global -- If you look at globally the seagrass and you value their carbon sequestration service, how much you think it's worth?

你覺得全球的…… 放眼全球的海草, 評估一下它們固碳的價值, 你覺得它們的貢獻值多少錢？

【98】You ready?

準備好了嗎？

【99】2.3 trillion dollars.

2.3 萬億美元。

【100】That's the size of the German stock market.

相當于德國股市的規(guī)模。

【101】Now.

那么,

【102】What does this tell us?

這意味著什么呢？

【103】This tells us that a living and thriving nature is not only valuable intrinsically, it's also financially valuable to us.

這意味著生機勃勃的大自然 不僅對它自身價值連城, 對我們來說也價值連城。

【104】Question is, what do you do with this?

問題是,你該做些什么呢？

【105】So the science tells us what a wondrous Earth we are on.

科學為我們展現了地球之美。

【106】We can value it in dollars and cents.

我們可以用金錢來衡量。

【107】Question is, what are you going to do with it?

問題是,然后你該干什么呢？

【108】Well, guess what? We can build a whole economy around a living and thriving nature, not an extractive view of nature, but a regenerative view of nature.

你猜怎么著？我們可以 圍繞這生機勃勃的大自然 建立一個完整的經濟體系, 不是向自然索取, 而是幫助自然煥發(fā)生機。

【109】And that economy --

這個經濟體系……

【110】(Applause) Thank you.

（掌聲） 謝謝。

【111】That economy is going to deliver for us sustainable and shared prosperity for all, big and small, all creatures on this planet.

這個經濟體系將為我們, 為地球萬物,無論大小, 帶來可持續(xù)的共同繁榮。

【112】It does not have to be I win, you lose.

這不必是一場零和博弈。

【113】It is a win-win.

這該是雙贏。

【114】I'm going to show you how.

我來告訴你們怎么做。

【115】From there we can build -- In order to build that economy, we need three things.

我們可以建設一個…… 要建立這個經濟體系, 我們需要三樣東西。

【116】We need the science, the accounting, the scientific accounting.

我們需要科學,指的是會計, 嚴謹的會計工作。

【117】What is it that you have? How much of it do you have?

你有什么東西？ 你持有多少？

【118】Then people like me, financial economists, come around and they say, "What is the value of what you have?"

然后第二步就是像我這樣的 金融經濟學家過來說道: “你持有的值多少錢？”

【119】The reason we value it is just to basically translate it into the language that policymakers can understand so they can make decisions.

我們之所以要估價 只是為了把它翻譯成 政策制定者可以理解的語言, 然后他們才能做出決定。

【120】That's all. It's a translation.

就是如此。只是“翻譯”而已。

【121】But then the third pillar is very important, which is the legal framing.

第三個關鍵部分也非常重要, 即法律體系。

【122】The legal framing is very important because we need to protect the rights of nature, a living and thriving nature.

法律體系非常重要, 因為我們需要保護大自然的權利, 我們生機勃勃的大自然。

【123】Three things. Once you do these three things, you can create markets around nature.

三樣東西。三樣都有了, 你就可以創(chuàng)造許多 圍繞大自然的市場。

【124】When I say markets around nature, not an extractive view of nature, but a regenerative view of nature.

我指的“圍繞大自然的市場”, 不是向自然界索取, 而是幫助大自然煥發(fā)新生。

【125】And I'm going to show you how.

我要告訴你如何做到這點。

【126】I'm going to show you how.

我要告訴你如何做到這點。

【127】Gabon has 57,000 elephants.

加蓬有 57000 頭大象。

【128】If you leave them alone, they can grow to 195,000 elephants.

如果不加以干涉, 可以繁衍至 195000 頭大象。

【129】Gabon can sell the carbon offsets of its elephants.

加蓬可以出售大象的碳補償價值。

【130】Imagine -- because those elephants are grabbing carbon in the trees -- they can sell the carbon offsets of their elephants.

想象一下,由于這些大象 會從樹中吸收碳, 加蓬就可以出售這個過程的價值。

【131】To whom?

賣給誰呢？

【132】To us because we're all enamored with going carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral.

賣給我們,因為我們都執(zhí)著于 達成零碳、負碳排放、碳中和。

【133】And our money will come in to look after these elephants in perpetuity.

我們的錢能讓大象 得以世世代代繁衍生息。

【134】OK? So how much revenue can Gabon get out of it?

好嗎？那加蓬能賺多少錢呢？

【135】One billion dollars a year from allowing these elephants to frolic freely, not be tied to anything, just by leaving them alone.

加蓬每年能賺到 10 億美元, 需要做的只是讓大象自由活動, 不對大象加以任何限制, 不作任何干涉。

【136】Those elephants, by the way, they walk, they poop, just being, having babies, doing whatever they do, they help carbon sequestration in the forests.

而這些大象只要進食、排泄、 生活、繁殖、為所欲為, 就能完成森林里的固碳過程。

【137】A forest without animals is dead.

沒有動物的森林是死氣沉沉的。

【138】It's not about flora. It's about flora and fauna.

不只是植物, 而是植物與動物。

【139】It's about nature itself.

是大自然自身。

【140】That's what the message is.

我要傳達的信息就是如此。

【141】Who would buy these carbon offsets?

誰會購買這些碳補償價值呢？

【142】All these companies and countries that made commitments to carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral.

所有承諾達成 零碳、負碳排放、碳中和的 公司、國家都會購買。

【143】They would buy the carbon offsets, or carbon credits if you like.

它們會購買這些碳補償價值, 或者說碳信用。

【144】The money would flow in from these ecosystem services -- be it the whales, be it the elephants, be it mangrove, seagrass, saltmarsh -- and the money goes in by contract,

資金會流入這些 生態(tài)系統(tǒng)運作的過程, 給予鯨魚、大象、 紅樹林、海草、鹽沼…… 由合同規(guī)范資金的流入,

【145】using blockchain technology to look after nature in perpetuity -- very important -- and to look after the stewards of nature in perpetuity.

利用區(qū)塊鏈技術 永久地照顧大自然, 這點非常重要, 也能永久地照顧 大自然的“管理員”。

【146】And the stewards of nature are the local and the indigenous population.

大自然的管理員是 當地的土著人。

【147】They're the ones who are doing the conservation, not you and me.

他們才是真正進行保護工作的人, 不是你,也不是我。

【148】(Applause) Once we do that -- Notice what it is.

（掌聲） 我們一旦這么做…… 看看效果吧。

【149】It's a win for nature.

對大自然有利。

【150】It's a win for the economy.

對經濟有利。

【151】The government will make money because the government is going to get all that revenue.

政府能賺到錢, 因為這些收入都歸了政府。

【152】It will change its fiscal stance.

這會改變財政態(tài)勢。

【153】It will diversify its economy. It will grow in a sustainable way.

讓經濟更加多元, 更可持續(xù)地增長。

【154】It's a win for the environment.

對環(huán)境有利。

【155】It's a win for all of these creatures that have suffered so much at our hands.

對所有飽受我們折磨的生物有利。

【156】It’s a win for this beautiful Earth of ours.

對我們美麗的地球有利。

【157】As Carl Sagan once said, “The only Earth we’ll ever know.

卡爾·薩根（Carl Sagan）曾說: “我們唯一的地球,

【158】The only home we'll ever know."

也是我們唯一的家園?！?/p>

【159】It's a win for us.

對我們自己有利。

【160】We are taking this work in Africa to Liberia, Cameroon, Kenya, South Africa.

我們把這項在非洲進行的工作 帶去了利比里亞、喀麥隆、 肯尼亞、南非。

【161】We're taking this work to the Americas, Chile, Argentina.

我們把這項工作帶去了美洲、 智利、阿根廷。

【162】We're doing it in the US and in the UK.

我們也在美國、 英國進行這項工作。

【163】Imagine, it just started with just a wish of mine to see a blue whale.

想象一下,一切始于 我想看到藍鯨的那個愿望。

【164】Little did I know it's going to end up with a vision of how we ought to live for tomorrow.

我未曾想到這會孕育出 對未來生存方式的暢想。

【165】Thank you.

謝謝。

【166】(Applause)