What is the most horrifying scientific theory that many people do not know about?

有關(guān)黑暗森林理論的討論——許多人不知道的最可怕的科學(xué)理論（一）

這是一篇有關(guān)Quora上“許多人不知道的最可怕的科學(xué)理論是什么？”問(wèn)題的回答和評(píng)論的翻譯。其主題是關(guān)于大劉的黑暗森林理論的討論，內(nèi)容比較有意思，篇幅也很長(zhǎng)，將分多篇發(fā)布。

答案一：
Steve Brennan, Enjoys Science Fiction, Futurism, and Space Theories
The Dark Forest Theory. Before I explain it, I’ll give a little bit of background information to put it into perspective:

黑暗森林理論。在我解釋它之前，我將提供一些背景信息，以使內(nèi)容更加全面：

The Dark Forest is one of many theories that may explain the Fermi Paradox. If you aren’t aware, the Fermi Paradox is the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence and high probability for the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations elsewhere in this vast, unending Universe.

黑暗森林理論是解釋費(fèi)米悖論的眾多理論之一。如果你還不知道的話，費(fèi)米悖論說(shuō)的就是在這個(gè)浩瀚無(wú)垠的宇宙中，外星文明存在的高概率與缺乏證據(jù)之間的明顯矛盾。

There are hundreds of billions of galaxies in the known universe. The Milky Way Galaxy alone has at least 100 Billion stars; each star more or less like our own (which we call the Sun, or “Sol”). Each of these stars potentially has several planets in orbit around them.

在已知的宇宙中有數(shù)千億個(gè)星系。僅銀河系就有至少1000億顆恒星；每顆恒星或多或少都與我們自己的恒星(我們稱之為太陽(yáng))相似。每一顆恒星周圍都可能有幾顆行星。

Even if only the tiniest fraction of these planets held life, and only the tiniest fraction of life-bearing planets held intelligent life, we are still looking at thousands of extraterrestrial civilizations out there in just the Milky Way Galaxy alone. And that’s not even including the other hundreds of billions of galaxies!

即使這些行星中只有最微小的一部分擁有生命，只有最微小的一部分有生命的行星擁有智慧生命，我們?nèi)匀荒軌蜚y河系中看到數(shù)以千計(jì)的外星文明。這還不包括其他數(shù)千億個(gè)星系！

But we have absolutely ZERO evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations! Hence, the Fermi Paradox.

但是我們沒(méi)有任何證據(jù)能夠證明外星文明的存在！這就是費(fèi)米悖論。

The universe could potentially be akin to a Dark Forest. Every civilization could potentially represent an armed soldier stalking through the trees. Each soldier must be silent and careful, because everywhere in the Dark Forest are stealthy, silent soldiers like himself. Each breath must be silent… each footstep must be silent. If he finds another life- he either risks his own life by trusting it, or he opens fire to eliminate them before they can eliminate him.

宇宙可能類似于一片黑暗的森林。每一種文明都有可能代表一名潛伏在樹(shù)林中的武裝士兵。每個(gè)士兵都必須保持沉默，小心翼翼，因?yàn)樵诤诎档纳掷?，到處都是像他一樣悄無(wú)聲息的士兵。每一次呼吸都必須靜悄悄地進(jìn)行……每一步都必須保持安靜。如果他找到了另一個(gè)人——他要么冒著生命危險(xiǎn)去相信他，要么在他們能消滅他之前就開(kāi)火消滅他們。

So why exactly is this theory so terrifying to us, right now? Because we have unwittingly broadcast our existence to the Universe for 100 years now! Ever since radio was invented! Every TV Broadcast, every Radio signal, every WiFi connection! Every potential civilization within 100 light years of us could be silently monitoring us, seeing what moves we make, and thinking about how incredibly stupid we are!

那么，為什么現(xiàn)在這個(gè)理論對(duì)我們而言如此可怕呢？因?yàn)樵谶^(guò)去一百年里，我們已經(jīng)不知不覺(jué)地向宇宙進(jìn)行著廣播！自從收音機(jī)被發(fā)明以來(lái)！每一次的電視廣播，每一次的無(wú)線電信號(hào)，每一次的無(wú)線網(wǎng)絡(luò)連接！距離我們100光年以內(nèi)的每一個(gè)潛在文明都可能在默默地監(jiān)視著我們，看著我們的一舉一動(dòng)，想著我們是多么的愚蠢！

Update: I’ve thoroughly enjoyed reading all of the comments, both in support of and in rebuttal to the Dark Forest. I know it’s cliché to say this, but when I wrote this answer I didn’t think it would get so much attention. I appreciate everyone who has taken the time to read my answer and speculate on it! I encourage you to look up The Dark Forest on YouTube or read the Science Fiction trilogy “Remembrance of Earth’s Past” by Cixin Liu.

更新：我非常喜歡閱讀所有的評(píng)論，無(wú)論是支持還是反駁“黑暗森林”的。我知道這么說(shuō)有點(diǎn)陳詞濫調(diào)，但當(dāng)我寫下這個(gè)答案時(shí)，我沒(méi)想到它會(huì)得到這么多關(guān)注。我感謝每一個(gè)花時(shí)間閱讀我的答案并思考它的人！我推薦你們?cè)谟凸苌纤阉骱诎瞪?，或者閱讀劉慈欣的科幻小說(shuō)三部曲《地球往事》。

評(píng)論翻譯

原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.ltaaa.com

C Stuart Hardwick
The problem with Dark Forest is, it’s predicated on faulty reasoning. We have not, in fact, been unwittingly broadcasting our existence to anyone. TV broadcasts and some radar have escaped into space, but would be impossible to pick out against the background din within a few lightyears.
The reality is, there is no paradox. We have reason to think life is ubiquitous—and intelligent life rare. Even if not, no civilization can broadcast its presence in any way we can detect without concerted, expensive effort. Ergo, even a dark forest might be full of happy, friendly nei***ours.

黑暗森林的問(wèn)題是，它是建立在錯(cuò)誤的推理上的。事實(shí)上，我們并沒(méi)有在無(wú)意中向任何人廣播我們的存在。電視廣播和一些雷達(dá)信號(hào)已經(jīng)逃逸進(jìn)入了太空，但在幾光年之內(nèi)，在嘈雜的背景聲中是不可能將它們分辨出來(lái)的。
現(xiàn)實(shí)情況是，這里面沒(méi)有什么矛盾之處。我們有理由認(rèn)為生命是無(wú)所不在的，而智慧生命則是罕見(jiàn)的。即使不是這樣，沒(méi)有協(xié)調(diào)一致、代價(jià)高昂的努力，任何文明都無(wú)法以我們能夠察覺(jué)的任何方式廣播其存在。因此，即使是在黑暗的森林里，也可能到處都是快樂(lè)、友好的鄰居。

Mike Johnson
The dark forest theory makes no sense. With our current technology we can detect the composition of extra solar planets. In 1000 years we should be able to see high resolution of the planetary surface. So its very likely that any advanced civilization knows the whereabouts of any other civilization.

黑暗森林理論毫無(wú)意義。以我們目前的技術(shù)，我們可以探測(cè)到太陽(yáng)系外行星的組成。在1000年后，我們應(yīng)該能夠看到行星表面的高分辨率圖像。所以任何先進(jìn)文明都很可能知道其他文明的下落。

Viktor Potashevich
> In 1000 years we should be able to see high resolution of the planetary surface
You won’t see a high-res image of a planet 100 light years away even in a million years. That’s the whole point: no supernatural DARK FOREST is preventing us from picking up other civilizations, but plain old laws of physics.

“在1000年后，我們應(yīng)該能夠看到行星表面的高分辨率圖像。”
在100萬(wàn)年后，你都不會(huì)看到100光年之外的行星的高分辨率圖像。這就是整個(gè)問(wèn)題的關(guān)鍵：沒(méi)有任何超自然的黑暗森林阻止我們探測(cè)到其他文明，阻止我們這么做的只是普通的古老物理定律。

John McCormick
Unless we travel to that extrasolar planet within the 1000 years or send a robot to do the work, we will NEVER see a high-resolution photo of the planetary surface. You fail to understand how the inverse-square law works and the methods scientists use to detect planets now.

除非我們?cè)?000年內(nèi)前往那顆太陽(yáng)系外的行星旅行，或者派機(jī)器人去做這項(xiàng)工作，否則我們將永遠(yuǎn)看不到這顆行星表面的高分辨率照片。你無(wú)法理解平方反比定律是如何發(fā)揮作用的，也無(wú)法理解科學(xué)家們現(xiàn)在用來(lái)探測(cè)行星的方法。

None of the methods give us a photo of a planet or anything like it. With only a few exceptions these are indirect measurements, and are invariably HUGE planets at least several times the size of Jupiter…and their stars are fairly close to us.

沒(méi)有一種方法能給我們提供行星或任何類似東西的照片。除了少數(shù)例外，這些都是間接測(cè)量出來(lái)的，而且都是至少比木星大幾倍的行星，它們的恒星離我們也相當(dāng)近。

The problem with getting a photo is that light spreads as it travels from its source. By the time it reaches us, it’s billionths, trillionths, or less as strong as it would be within the same star system.

拍攝照片的問(wèn)題在于，光線在從光源傳播的過(guò)程中會(huì)擴(kuò)散。當(dāng)它到達(dá)我們這里的時(shí)候，它的強(qiáng)度只有在它的恒星系中的十億分之一，萬(wàn)億分之一，或者更小。

Roger Scott
How so? The only assumption I see here is basic physics: the intensity of energy spreading out uniformly in 3-d space diminishes as the square of the distance, so the energy required to deliver a signal of a given amplitude increases as the square of the distance over which you want to deliver it. And the level of cosmic background noise in any given spectrum isn’t under the control of _either_ the transmitter _or_ the receiver, so if we’re broadcasting a very weak signal it is the _universe_ that limits how far away it can be “heard”, not the potential recipient’s technology. Note that “heard” means “distinguished from the background noise”.

所以又如何呢？我在這里唯一看到的是基本的物理學(xué)：在三維空間中均勻傳播的能量密度會(huì)按照距離的平方速度消減，所以如果你想要將它傳遞出去，所需要的能量將隨著距離的平方而增加。在任何給定的頻譜中，宇宙背景噪聲的水平既不受發(fā)射機(jī)控制，也不受接收機(jī)的控制，因此，如果我們?cè)趶V播一個(gè)非常微弱的信號(hào)，是宇宙限制了它能被“聽(tīng)到”的距離，而不是潛在接收者的技術(shù)。注意，“聽(tīng)到”的意思是“能夠從背景噪音中被辨別出來(lái)”。

Ronald W. Garrison
Not really true. With a sufficiently large antenna or telescope mirror, you can get as directional as you want, and therefore can discriminate against noise as much as you want, and collect an arbitrarily large signal. However, there could be some limiting of how far this could be carried, because of the interstellar medium dispersing signals in frequency and time. At some wavelengths, interstellar debris could block some signals over long enough distances.

并非如此。如果有了足夠大的天線或望遠(yuǎn)鏡的反射鏡，你就可以探測(cè)到任意方向的東西，因此可以盡可能地辨別噪音，并收集任意多的信號(hào)。然而，由于星際介質(zhì)在頻率和時(shí)間上分散了信號(hào)，這可能會(huì)限制它的傳播距離。在某些波長(zhǎng)上，星際碎片可以在足夠長(zhǎng)的距離內(nèi)阻擋住某些信號(hào)。

John McCormick
That is not really true either. Propagation in free space is subject to the laws of quantum physics. We can’t even collimate a laser from Earth’s surface to a spot on the Moon smaller than a football field. Across the solar system it would be huge. Between stars it would be so attenuated that it would be invisible against the background radiation of the cosmos.
And that’s with a laser which has the tightest beam we can make. Large antennas and telescopes are far, far worse when it comes to sending out a tight signal.

這也不是真的。自由空間中的傳播受量子物理定律的制約。我們甚至不能將地球表面的激光瞄準(zhǔn)到月球上比足球場(chǎng)還小的地方上去。在整個(gè)太陽(yáng)系，它將是強(qiáng)烈的。但是在恒星之間它會(huì)衰減到在宇宙背景輻射下看不見(jiàn)的程度。
這還是用我們能制造出的光束最密集的激光。大型天線和望遠(yuǎn)鏡發(fā)出的信號(hào)則要差得多。

Mike Johnson
Most likely others quickly lose interest in traveling through space. I mean can you imagine how awesome video games will be in 1000 years? Also, genetic and cyber enhancements will make you immortal… why blast myself through space in a can for thousands of years to some inhospitable place when i am living in Valhalla?

很可能其他文明很快就會(huì)對(duì)太空旅行失去興趣。你能想象1000年后的電子游戲會(huì)有多棒嗎？還有，基因和網(wǎng)絡(luò)的增強(qiáng)會(huì)讓你長(zhǎng)生不老……當(dāng)我住在瓦爾哈拉的時(shí)候，為什么要跑到太空中，前往某個(gè)不適宜居住的地方呢？

Mike Johnson
Well it would be alot easier to seed the cosmos with sperm/egg/robot teachers than sending full grown humans….i guess

用精子、卵子和機(jī)器人老師在宇宙中播種要比用成年人類去播種要容易得多……我猜是這樣的

Tom Hammer
we cannot assume other beings would automatically want to explore just because we do.

我們不能僅僅因?yàn)槲覀兿胩剿?，就假設(shè)其他生物會(huì)自動(dòng)地想探索。

Paul Edward Montador
As Sir Edmund Hilary said about climbing Everest “I did it because it was there” Kind of the same theory Robert Williscroft has I suspect!!

正如埃德蒙?希拉里爵士在談到攀登珠穆朗瑪峰時(shí)所說(shuō)的，“我之所以攀登珠穆朗瑪峰，是因?yàn)樗驮谀抢铩?，我懷疑這與羅伯特?威利斯克羅夫特的理論差不多！

Rob Raese
You can forget about extra dimensions only if what is unknown to us is precisely like what is known to us. Dimensions … who knows what strange laws they might follow?

只有當(dāng)我們所不知道的和我們所知道的完全一樣時(shí)，你才能忘記額外維度。誰(shuí)知道他們會(huì)遵循什么奇怪的法則呢？

Ralph Clark
You don't understand what the word “dimension* means. I do. It means a direction orthogonal to all others. There is an entire field of mathematics devoted to the subject. I can talk about it with some degree of comfort because it's been discussed at length by string theorists.
Just because you don't understand what “fourth dimension” means doesn't entail that nobody does. They understand it quite well. And there isn't a fourth macroscopic fourth dimension in this universe. End of.

你不明白“維度”是什么意思。我明白。它意味著一個(gè)正交于其它所有方向的方向。有一整個(gè)數(shù)學(xué)領(lǐng)域?qū)ｉT研究這個(gè)問(wèn)題。我可以帶著某種程度的欣慰來(lái)談?wù)撍且驗(yàn)樗?jīng)常被弦理論家所討論。
僅僅因?yàn)槟悴焕斫狻八木S”的意思并不意味著沒(méi)有人不會(huì)理解。他們理解得很好。在這個(gè)宇宙中沒(méi)有第四種宏觀的維度。就是這樣。

James Grimm
The world is already experimenting with quantum communications. Very early stages yes, but if there is an advanced civilization out there, there is a good chance they already figured out how to do that and stopped the use of radio communications that we still use.

這個(gè)世界已經(jīng)在進(jìn)行量子通信的實(shí)驗(yàn)。在早期階段，是這樣的，但是如果有先進(jìn)的文明存在，很有可能他們已經(jīng)知道如何做到這一點(diǎn)，并且停止使用我們現(xiàn)在仍在使用的無(wú)線電通訊。

Roger Phelps
Quantum communications do not evade the speed of light limit. You may have heard that measuring some property of one of a pair of entangled particles instantly fixes that property for the other member of the pair. That is true but since the properties are indeterminate until the first measurement is made, the only information that the second measurement gives is the value of the property given by the first measurement. This is not a basis for faster than light communications.

量子通信無(wú)法規(guī)避光速的限制。您可能聽(tīng)說(shuō)過(guò)，測(cè)量一對(duì)糾纏粒子中的一個(gè)的某些屬性可以立即確定另一個(gè)的屬性。這是正確的，但是由于這種屬性在第一次度量之前是不確定的，所以第二次度量給出的惟一信息是第一次度量給出的屬性的值。這不是比光通信更快的基礎(chǔ)。

Roger Phelps
No. All that person A finds out is the results of person B’s measurements. By definition person B’s measurements are completely random and contain absolutely no information. Some very bright minds have examined this question and have come to the conclusion that this is not a basis for FTL communication.

不。A只知道B的測(cè)量結(jié)果。根據(jù)定義，B的測(cè)量完全是隨機(jī)的，不包含任何信息。一些非常聰明的人研究過(guò)這個(gè)問(wèn)題，并得出結(jié)論，這不是超光速通信的基礎(chǔ)。

Roger Scott
If it were possible to violate these laws you’d expect, in the vast expanse of even just the visible universe, to see plenty of evidence of that happening.

如果有可能違背這些定律，你就可以期待在廣闊的甚至是可見(jiàn)的宇宙中看到大量的證據(jù)。

Claus Appel
Then you are saying that we can never even speculate about them, since literally anything might be possible.

那么你是說(shuō)我們甚至不能去推測(cè)它們，因?yàn)閷?shí)際上任何事情都是可能發(fā)生的。

Stephen Fretz
We can speculate, sure. But some of our assumptions might be wrong. OTOH, if the laws of physics aren’t consistent across the universe, that also leads to testable hypotheses.

我們當(dāng)然可以進(jìn)行推測(cè)。但我們的一些假設(shè)可能是錯(cuò)誤的。另一方面，如果整個(gè)宇宙的物理定律不一致，那也會(huì)引出可驗(yàn)證的假設(shè)。

Hariz Rizki
Except laws of physics that we know is not really working the same way on quantum level. Who knows what you can and can’t once you can go to higher dimension, what we have known is just theorem and simulation model.

除了我們知道的物理定律在量子層面上并不適用。一旦你能進(jìn)入更高的維度，誰(shuí)知道你能做什么不能做什么，我們所知道的只是定理和模擬模型。

Vijayan Odukkathil
Yes; “God work in mysterious ways”.
We, the mortals, will try to explore the mysteries of the universe using known and yet to be known laws of physics.

是的；“上帝在以神秘的方式工作”。
我們，人類，將使用已知的和尚未知道的物理定律嘗試探索宇宙的奧秘。

Lawrence Hannaford
Theoretically speaking, they might not need to ..
for example, every solid planet would have different characteristics from our Earth (such as a differing levels of gravity/temperature based on the distances from the planet to the sun, or the atmospheric composition)
so their physical laws could be completely different to ours, with completely different limitations, right ?

從理論上講，他們可能不需要這么做……
例如，每一個(gè)固態(tài)行星將擁有和我們的地球不同的特征(如不同水平的重力、溫度，從行星到恒星的距離，或大氣成分)
所以他們的物理定律可能與我們的完全不同，以及完全不同的局限性，對(duì)吧？

Luca Arrigo
Physical laws are still the same. What change is evolution and adaptation to their home planet properties. In fact us humans can’t land on a planet where the gravity is much higher than our Earth, our body not evolved for that. Is the same problem astronauts face while they stay in orbit for long periods of time.

物理定律還是一樣的。變化的是進(jìn)化和適應(yīng)它們的母星屬性。事實(shí)上，我們?nèi)祟惒豢赡芙德湓谝粋€(gè)重力比地球高得多的星球上，我們的身體不是為此而進(jìn)化出來(lái)的。宇航員在軌道上停留很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間也會(huì)面臨同樣的問(wèn)題。

Roger Phelps
Of course it is, but it makes the signal more detectable for everyone, not just advanced civilisations.

當(dāng)然可能，但它讓每個(gè)文明都能更容易地探測(cè)到這個(gè)信號(hào)，而不僅僅是發(fā)達(dá)文明。

John McCormick
Regardless of our ability to receive radio transmissions, there is a limit to the distance that any such signal can travel and still be distinguished from the background radiation of the Universe. One site suggested that it’s a bit like trying to detect a pebble dropped in the water on the other side of an ocean. It’s literally impossible given any theoretical technology.
Imagine looking for a lit candle placed 100 miles away on an intensely bright, sunny day. Or imagine dumping a gallon of dyed water in the ocean. There is literally no possibility that either one could be detected by any methods we can conceive, now or in the future.
Neither is it likely that any other civilization could do any better at any level of technology.

不管我們接收無(wú)線電信號(hào)的能力如何，任何這樣的信號(hào)傳播的距離都是有限的，并且仍然可以與宇宙的背景輻射區(qū)分開(kāi)。這有點(diǎn)像試圖探測(cè)到掉在大洋另一邊的水里的卵石。這在任何理論技術(shù)下都是不可能的。
想象一下，在一個(gè)陽(yáng)光燦爛的日子里，你正在尋找100英里外一支點(diǎn)燃的蠟燭?；蛘呦胂笠幌掳岩患觼鋈旧乃惯M(jìn)海里。無(wú)論現(xiàn)在還是將來(lái)，用我們能想到的任何方法都不可能檢測(cè)到其中任何一種情況。
其他任何文明在任何技術(shù)水平上都不可能做得更好。

Solly Martheze
True. I think the anthropomorphic tendency apply here. We humans have the belief that if extra-terrestrial life exists, it will be like ours.

沒(méi)錯(cuò)。我認(rèn)為同形同性傾向也適用于此。我們?nèi)祟愊嘈?，如果外星生命存在，它就?huì)像我們一樣。

Eric Andrew
Brains are merely concentrations of nerve cells (ganglia) that cluster closest to the sensory organs for efficiency. An evolutionary trend known as cephalization. It is not necessary for intelligence. A brain is like a server room. A group of computers close to each other for faster processing and easier maintenance. But the same number of computers connected through other means from different rooms achieves the same effect, albeit less efficient.
Moreover, eating meat made larger brains possible for us humans. But it did not cause us to have larger brains. It was simply the food with the highest nutritional value that were the easiest to digest for our stomachs. Alien life in an alien ecosystem would not necessarily have the same conditions or method of nutritional intake as early humans. As we’ve advanced in technology, we’ve found other ways of getting the same nutrition: agriculture.
Speaking of which, the establishment of farming civilizations, paradoxically, also usually coincides with the first instances of large-scale warfare in ancient human societies, which contradicts the assumption that violence was a prerequisite to eating better.
Simply put: violence had nothing to do with food acquisition. Whether it’s because of the invention of social hierarchies or because of innate xenophobia at the “other” or because of the clashes between settled farmers and nomadic hunter-gatherers/pastoralists, is still up in the air. But one thing is for sure: just because you ate meat doesn’t necessarily mean you had a war-like culture.

Eric Andrew
Because crossing the vast distances of space just to eat other lifeforms is a ridiculous premise.
Not only because it assumes that they still need to eat like we do, but also because the amount of energy they may gain from us (or our planet) pales in comparison to the amount of energy and materials they expend traveling the distance to get to our planet in the first place.
Think. Give me a single resource that they might want from us or our planet. Anything.
Water? Iron? Gold? Diamonds? Our brains?
Every single resource we have on Earth now exists elsewhere in the universe in abundance. Even organic molecules. All ripe for the taking for a species with faster-than-light travel. All without a need to attack or subdue another civilization. Especially if we assume any species that have achieved interstellar travel are also advanced enough to literally harvest stars (cf. Dyson spheres) giving them virtually unlimited energy for billions of years.
Unless we have something rare that we are not aware of, we are a loss-loss scenario for any invading force intent on energy or resources.
So no. Aliens in the “Dark Forest” scenario wouldn’t invade us for energy or other resources. Why would they? They can get that easily from literally anywhere else in the universe.
They’d invade for paranoia, fear, or simply a directive of their programming (as in the Von Neumann hypothesis).
It would be less like a hunter stalking prey to feed his family. It would be more like you squishing an ant because it’s annoying or because you want your kitchen spotless.

因?yàn)榇┰竭b遠(yuǎn)的太空只是為了吃其他的生命形式是一個(gè)荒謬的前提。
不僅因?yàn)樗俣ㄋ麄內(nèi)匀恍枰裎覀円粯映詵|西，還因?yàn)橄啾扔谒麄兛赡軓奈覀?或地球)這里獲得的能量相比，他們旅行到地球所消耗的能量和材料。
想想看吧。給我一個(gè)他們想要從我們或我們的星球得到的資源。不管是什么東西。
水？鐵？黃金？鉆石？還是我們的大腦？

我們?cè)诘厍蛏蠐碛械拿恳环N資源現(xiàn)在都大量存在于宇宙的其他地方。即使是有機(jī)分子也是如此。對(duì)于一種比光速還快的物種來(lái)說(shuō)，一切都已經(jīng)成熟了。它都不需要攻擊或征服另一種文明。特別是如果我們假設(shè)任何已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)星際旅行的物種也足夠先進(jìn)，能夠真正地收獲恒星(參考戴森球)，為它們提供數(shù)十億年幾乎無(wú)限的能量。
除非我們有一些我們不知道的稀罕的東西，否則對(duì)于任何意圖獲取能源或資源的入侵勢(shì)力來(lái)說(shuō)，我們都是一個(gè)只能導(dǎo)致雙輸?shù)牡胤健?br/>

Eric Andrew
It’s not conjecture. Our knowledge is limited, but it’s not that limited. We know how these resources are formed. We’ve had more or less a century of data from probes to spectroscopy telling us where they can be found off-planet.

這不是猜想。我們的知識(shí)是有限的，但并不是那么有限。我們知道這些資源是如何形成的。我們擁有大約一個(gè)世紀(jì)的數(shù)據(jù)，從探測(cè)器到光譜學(xué)，它告訴我們?cè)谀睦锟梢哉业剿鼈儭?br/>
While we can not know which resources are valuable to them, we can say confidently that every element we have in our planet exist elsewhere in vast amounts and can be harvested more easily.

雖然我們不知道哪些資源對(duì)它們來(lái)說(shuō)是有價(jià)值的，但我們可以自信地說(shuō)，我們地球上的每一種元素都存在于其他地方，數(shù)量巨大，而且更容易獲取。

And here’s the thing, even our still relatively primitive civilization can already routinely manufacture molecules and transform one element to another. How much more for an interstellar civilization? So really, what else could they possibly want from us?

事情就是這樣的，即使是我們這個(gè)相對(duì)原始的文明也已經(jīng)能夠常規(guī)地制造分子，并將一種元素轉(zhuǎn)化成另一種元素。對(duì)于一個(gè)星際文明來(lái)說(shuō)還需要多少呢？那么，他們還能從我們這里得到什么呢？

So again, unless we hold a truly exotic resource we may be unaware of (which is extremely unlikely and would not explain why they would invade all the other planets), an alien civilization invading us for resources to sustain them is just about the most farfetched scenario there is.

所以，除非我們擁有一種我們可能不知道的真正的外來(lái)資源(這是極不可能的，也無(wú)法解釋為什么他們會(huì)入侵其他所有的行星)，一個(gè)外星文明要入侵我們以獲取資源來(lái)維持他們的存在，這幾乎是最牽強(qiáng)的情況。

The most likely and the most problematic hypothetical “superpredators” need to be able to silence planets on a galactic scale. They need to do it without worrying about the resource and energy cost. And they need to be able to do it quickly to explain the current silence of the universe. In short: they would need to be at least a Type 2 civilization. Against these, we literally stand no chance. I’ll give you two:

最可能也是最成問(wèn)題的假想“超級(jí)捕食者”需要能夠在銀河尺度上壓制行星。他們需要這樣做而又不用擔(dān)心資源和能源成本。他們需要能夠快速地解釋目前宇宙的寂靜狀況。簡(jiǎn)而言之：它們至少需要是二類文明。面對(duì)這些文明，我們根本沒(méi)有機(jī)會(huì)。我給你們兩個(gè)例子：

Von Neumann machines. Self-replicating AI. Not necessarily the classic metal robots in countless Sci-Fi films, mind you, they will most likely be organic. They would not be interested in resources or survival, just merely carrying out its programing. Already a strong possibility as given that civilizations will sooner or later build AI. It only takes one civilization to make a mistake (possibly initially make one as a weapon) and create a grey goo apocalypse that then spreads like cancer to the universe. They’d have the ability to detect intelligence and the ability to silence them quickly before they can be heard.

馮·諾依曼機(jī)器。一種能夠自我復(fù)制的人工智能。雖然它不是無(wú)數(shù)科幻電影中的經(jīng)典金屬機(jī)器人，但請(qǐng)注意，它們很可能是有機(jī)的。他們不會(huì)對(duì)資源或生存感興趣，而僅僅是執(zhí)行其程序。鑒于人類文明遲早會(huì)制造人工智能，這種可能性已經(jīng)很大。只需要一個(gè)文明犯下一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤(可能最初會(huì)把一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤當(dāng)成一種武器)，然后制造出一個(gè)灰色粘稠的世界末日，然后像癌癥一樣擴(kuò)散到全宇宙。他們有能力探測(cè)情報(bào)，并能在其他文明被聽(tīng)到之前迅速讓他們閉嘴。

Gods. Not our fanciful human fairytales, but actual gods. They would most likely also be immortal AI like Von Neumann machines, but they’d be sentient and not bound to programming. They’d be the pinnacles of civilizations that have gone beyond the technological singularity, and for some ideological reason or another has decided that lifeforms like us can not be allowed to spread. Like Von Neumann, machines, they would not want anything from us. They just want us gone. And they too would have the ability to silence planets as soon as they detect them.

神。不是我們幻想中的人類童話，而是真實(shí)的神。它們也極有可能像馮?諾伊曼機(jī)器那樣成為不朽的人工智能，但它們是有知覺(jué)的，不受程序的束縛。它們將是超越技術(shù)奇點(diǎn)的文明的頂峰，出于某種意識(shí)形態(tài)的原因，它們決定不允許像我們這樣的生命形式得到傳播。就像馮·諾依曼機(jī)器一樣，他們不想從我們這里得到任何東西。他們只是想讓我們消失。它們也有能力在探測(cè)到行星時(shí)就使其安靜下來(lái)。

Notice how sci-fi like Star Wars or Star Trek need to invent exotic resources so they can give a reason for why an interstellar civilization would have any motivation at all to invade a pre-FTL species.

請(qǐng)注意，像《星球大戰(zhàn)》或《星際迷航》這樣的科幻小說(shuō)需要設(shè)置一種外來(lái)資源，這樣才能解釋為什么星際文明會(huì)有動(dòng)機(jī)入侵前超光速時(shí)代的物種。

And don’t forget the main scenario we are still trying to explain here: the Fermi paradox. We’re not only talking about their ability and desire to invade us. But their ability and desire to invade the billions of other civilizations that we should be hearing right now but aren’t.

別忘了我們還在試圖解釋的主要問(wèn)題：費(fèi)米悖論。我們不只是在談?wù)撍麄內(nèi)肭治覀兊哪芰驮竿６撬麄內(nèi)肭謹(jǐn)?shù)數(shù)十億其他文明的能力和愿望，我們現(xiàn)在本應(yīng)該能聽(tīng)到它們的聲音，但沒(méi)有。

A resource-hungry Type 1 civilization invading planets for resources a la the Colonial Era simply is not powerful enough to explain the great silence.

一個(gè)渴求資源的一型文明，就像殖民時(shí)代一樣，入侵行星以獲取資源，但它的力量還不足以解釋這種范圍廣大的靜默。