Author(s): John Haldon, Neil Roberts, Adam Izdebski, Dominik Fleitmann, Michael McCormick, Marica Cassis, Owen Doonan, Warren Eastwood, Hugh Elton, Sabine Ladst?tter, Sturt Manning, James Newhard, Kathleen Nicoll, Ioannes Telelis and Elena Xoplaki
Published by: The MIT Press

翻譯：神尾智代

接上

Climate and the wider perspective

氣候和更廣闊的視野

Human activity has arguably had a greater imprint on the landscape than any other single factor, particularly with respect to the way in which deforestation and over-grazing have led to soil exhaustion, erosion, alluviation, and land abandonment. But outside factors have also affected hu man exploitation of the landscape. Because relatively minor shifts in climate can have significant effects at a local to regional level, it will be worth reviewing what we know of the climate history of the region from late antiquity into the medieval period before looking at the possible significance of such factors for some important changes in social, economic, and political history.

????????? 可以說，人類活動對景觀的影響比任何其他單一因素都大，尤其是在森林砍伐和過度放牧導(dǎo)致土壤枯竭、侵蝕、沖積和土地廢棄的方式方面。 但外部因素也影響了人類對景觀的開發(fā)。 由于相對較小的氣候變化可能會在局部到區(qū)域?qū)用娈a(chǎn)生重大影響，因此在研究這些因素對某些人的可能意義之前，有必要回顧一下我們對該地區(qū)從古代晚期到中世紀(jì)時期的氣候歷史的了解。社會、經(jīng)濟和政治歷史的重大變化。

Palaeoclimatic records indicate that the conditions prevailing across western Eurasia from the third to the second century B.C.E. into the late second century C.E. remained relatively warm and hu mid, conducive to intensive agriculture. Often referred to as the "Roman Warm Period" (RWP), it was typified by conditions that minimized much of the usual risk and decadal variability associated with Mediterranean climate, coinciding with the growth and consolidation of Roman military and political power and economic expansion. By the same token, such conditions were also particularly favorable to the advance of agriculture and the increase in population across central and northern Europe. A detailed examination, however, shows significant climatic variations both in time and in space during this period; the RWP was not warm and wet everywhere all the time. Just as the Medieval Warm Period is now more commonly referred to as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), it is likely that the RWP should similarly be re-evaluated.

????????? 古氣候記錄表明，公元前 3 世紀(jì)到 2 世紀(jì)，歐亞大陸西部的氣候普遍存在。到公元 2 世紀(jì)后期，仍然相對溫暖和潮濕，有利于集約化農(nóng)業(yè)。通常被稱為“羅馬暖期”（RWP），它的特點是最大限度地減少了與地中海氣候相關(guān)的大部分常見風(fēng)險和年代際變化，恰逢羅馬軍事和政治權(quán)力的增長和鞏固以及經(jīng)濟擴張。同樣，這種條件也特別有利于中歐和北歐的農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展和人口增長。然而，詳細的檢查表明，這一時期在時間和空間上都有顯著的氣候變化； RWP 并不總是溫暖潮濕。正如中世紀(jì)暖期現(xiàn)在更常被稱為中世紀(jì)氣候異常 (MCA) 一樣，RWP 很可能也應(yīng)該類似地重新評估。

A correlation has been postulated between climate and changing solar activity, with periods of low solar activity - solar minima - commonly found in conjunction with low temperatures. Accordingly, scholars have associated climate and solar activity with historical events or developments, although this relationship is never one-to-one, and its existence is often hotly debated.

????????? 已經(jīng)假設(shè)氣候和不斷變化的太陽活動之間存在相關(guān)性，低太陽活動時期-太陽極小期-通常與低溫一起發(fā)現(xiàn)。 因此，學(xué)者們將氣候和太陽活動與歷史事件或發(fā)展聯(lián)系起來，盡管這種關(guān)系從來不是一一對應(yīng)的，而且它的存在也經(jīng)常引起激烈爭論。

Notwithstanding the absence of consensus, climate historians largely agree about the long-term (multicentennial to millennial scale) changes that have affected the earth. What is usually less clear from the historical perspective are the decadal-scale climatic fluctuations that are superimposed on long-term changes in mean cli mate, because they are affected by a range of factors that in many cases still need to be fully investigated and understood.

????????? 盡管缺乏共識，氣候歷史學(xué)家在很大程度上同意影響地球的長期（數(shù)百年到千禧年規(guī)模）變化。 從歷史角度通常不太清楚的是疊加在平均氣候長期變化上的年代際尺度的氣候波動，因為它們受到一系列因素的影響，在許多情況下仍然需要充分調(diào)查和了解 .

The broad picture for the Roman world shows favorable and stable climatic conditions from c. 250 B.C.E. to 200 C.E., giving way thereafter to a far more variable climate, with higher-amplitude fluctuations between cold/dry and warm/wet periods. In central and western Anatolia, climatic variations appear to have been well distinguished, with some significant wet-to-dry oscillations. In the southern Levant, the climate may have become more humid after c. 400 C.E. until sometime in the sixth century, when drier weather prevailed, although the chronology of such changes remains insecure.

????????? 羅馬世界的廣闊圖景顯示了從公元前250 年到公元200年開始的有利和穩(wěn)定的氣候條件。此后讓位于更加多變的氣候，在寒冷/干燥和溫暖/潮濕時期之間具有更高的幅度波動。在安納托利亞中部和西部，氣候變化似乎已經(jīng)得到很好的區(qū)分，有一些顯著的干濕振蕩。在黎凡特南部，公元 400 年之后氣候可能變得更加潮濕。直到公元 6 世紀(jì)的某個時候，天氣變得更加干燥，盡管這些變化的年代順序仍然不確定。

The exact timing and duration of the subregional variations are yet to be clarified due to the imprecisely dated palaeoclimatic data, but the evidence suggests that the pattern of change may not have been the same everywhere - for example, in western Anatolia and the southern Levant. Given the paucity of proxy records for temperature in the eastern Mediterranean within this time interval, we must resort to an analysis of tree rings and speleothems (stalag mites, stalactites, and flowstones) from the Alps and central Europe. They indicate that the climate became much colder during the first half of the sixth century (Figure I). For the period from the 530s, conditions may have been affected by what appears to have been a large volcanic eruption dated roughly between 536 and $41, although there is no strong evidence to link it with events in the northern hemisphere. The plague of justinian broke out in 541, but the nature of a possible connection between a changing climate and this pandemic over subsequent years remains unelucidated.

????????? 由于古氣候數(shù)據(jù)的日期不準(zhǔn)確，次區(qū)域變化的確切時間和持續(xù)時間尚待澄清，但有證據(jù)表明，變化的模式可能并非到處都相同——例如，在安納托利亞西部和黎凡特南部。鑒于此時間間隔內(nèi)東地中海溫度的替代記錄很少，我們必須對來自阿爾卑斯山和中歐的樹木年輪和洞穴（石筍、鐘乳石和流石）進行分析。它們表明，在 6 世紀(jì)上半葉，氣候變得更加寒冷（圖 I）。從 530 年代開始，條件可能受到了大約發(fā)生在 536 到 41 美元之間的大規(guī)?；鹕奖l(fā)的影響，盡管沒有強有力的證據(jù)表明它與北半球的事件有關(guān)。查士丁尼瘟疫于 541 年爆發(fā)，但隨后幾年氣候變化與這場流行病之間可能存在的聯(lián)系的性質(zhì)仍未闡明。

During the second half of the sixth century and into the first half of the seventh, conditions were cold in central Europe, allowing glacial advance in the Alps. Alpine glacier evidence suggests warming c. 400 and some very slow glacial advance c. 430, although the fifth-century tree-ring data indicate conditions that are neither especially cool nor warm; speleothem evidence from Austria shows cooling c. 400 to 450, followed by warming again. In the Balkans and eastern Mediterranean, broadly, the period from the second to the fifth century may have become increasingly arid, although the evidence is not always easy to interpret, and opinions differ. Most observers agree, however, about a shift to a wetter (and possibly warmer) regime during the fifth and into the sixth century. In the southern Levant, this wetter phase seems to end in the course of the first half of the sixth century; in central and western Anatolia more humid conditions appear to have persisted into the eighth century. Some historians have wondered whether this weather has causal implications regarding the revival and consolidation of the Eastern Roman Empire at this time. The evidence of ceramics and other data would certainly support an intensification of economic activity at that time in that region.

????????? 在 6 世紀(jì)下半葉和 7 世紀(jì)上半葉，中歐的氣候寒冷，使得阿爾卑斯山的冰川得以推進。高山冰川證據(jù)表明公元400年變暖；公元430年，一些非常緩慢的冰川在推進，盡管 5 世紀(jì)的樹木年輪數(shù)據(jù)表明條件既不是特別涼爽也不是特別溫暖；來自奧地利的洞穴證據(jù)顯示公元400 到 450為冷卻，然后再次升溫。在巴爾干半島和地中海東部，從廣義上講，從 2 世紀(jì)到 5 世紀(jì)的時期可能變得越來越干旱，盡管證據(jù)并不總是容易解釋，而且意見也各不相同。然而，大多數(shù)觀察家都同意在五世紀(jì)和六世紀(jì)期間轉(zhuǎn)向更潮濕（并且可能更溫暖）的狀態(tài)。在黎凡特南部，這個濕潤階段似乎在 6 世紀(jì)上半葉結(jié)束；在安納托利亞中部和西部，更潮濕的條件似乎一直持續(xù)到八世紀(jì)。一些歷史學(xué)家想知道這種天氣是否與此時東羅馬帝國的復(fù)興和鞏固有因果關(guān)系。陶瓷和其他數(shù)據(jù)的證據(jù)肯定會支持當(dāng)時該地區(qū)經(jīng)濟活動的加劇。

The key proxy climate records shown in Figure i pertain mainly to central and western Anatolia, which after the middle of the seventh century lay at the heart of the Byzantine Empire (see Figure 2b). The relatively well-dated stable-isotope records from Sofular Cave, reflective of the Black Sea environment, and Nar Lake, in a more continental location, both show closely aligned trends throughout the period from 270 to 1450 C.E. They indicate drier climatic conditions during the later fourth and early fifth centuries; greater humidity during the later sixth, seventh, and early eighth centuries; and a shorter-lived dry phase afterward. The same pattern is recorded in the less detailed and not so well-dated sedimentary record from Tecer Lake (See Figure I).

????????? 圖1中顯示的關(guān)鍵代理氣候記錄主要涉及安納托利亞中部和西部，在七世紀(jì)中葉之后位于拜占庭帝國的中心（見圖 2b）。 來自 Sofular 洞穴（反映黑海環(huán)境）和納爾湖（位于更大陸的位置）的相對年代較久的穩(wěn)定同位素記錄在整個公元 270 年至 1450 年期間都顯示出密切一致的趨勢。 四世紀(jì)末和五世紀(jì)初； 六世紀(jì)后期、七世紀(jì)和八世紀(jì)初期的濕度更大； 之后是短暫的干燥階段。 同樣的模式記錄在來自 Tecer 湖的不太詳細且年代不詳?shù)某练e記錄中（見圖 I）。

To what extent are these climatic trends registered in historical records of weather and crisis for the same time period? Telelis compiled systematic surveys of extreme weather conditions and their effects from Byzantine archival sources for the period from 300 to 1500 C.E., and Stathakopoulos cataloged episodes of famine and disease from 284 to 750 C.E. These conditions, covering the eastern Mediterranean as a whole, are listed in appendix 1 and shown summarily in Figure I. In contrast to most proxy climate records, historical observations are neither continuous nor complete; events may be missing from the documentary record. Furthermore, it may not always be possible to locate events with geographical precision, though the ones that are relatively easy to place can provide clear causal connections. For example, according to Stathakopoulos, between 451 and 454 C.E., "as a result of a drought in Phrygia, Galatia, Cappadocia, Cilicia and Palestine, a famine occurred . . . and a pestilence broke out." But causality is not always so obvious. For instance, the reasons for the lack of wheat and barley that led to the shortage of bread in Constantinople in 555 C.E. are unclear; this might have been the result of provisioning problems in Egypt.

????????? 這些氣候趨勢在同一時期的天氣和危機歷史記錄中的記錄程度如何？ Telelis 根據(jù)拜占庭檔案資料匯編了對公元 300 年至 1500 年期間極端天氣條件及其影響的系統(tǒng)調(diào)查，并且 Stathakopoulos 對公元 284 年至 750 年間的饑荒和疾病事件進行了編目。列出了涵蓋整個地中海東部的這些條件在附錄 1 中并在圖 I 中概括顯示。與大多數(shù)代理氣候記錄相比，歷史觀測既不連續(xù)也不完整；文件記錄中可能缺少事件。此外，雖然相對容易定位的事件可以提供明確的因果關(guān)系，但并非總是可以精確地定位事件。例如，根據(jù) Stathakopoulos 的說法，公元 451 年至 454 年之間，“由于弗里吉亞、加拉太、卡帕多西亞、西里西亞和巴勒斯坦的干旱，發(fā)生了饑荒……并爆發(fā)了瘟疫?！钡蚬P(guān)系并不總是那么明顯。例如，公元 555 年君士坦丁堡缺乏小麥和大麥的原因尚不清楚；這可能是埃及供應(yīng)問題的結(jié)果。

Given these potential difficulties, it is all the more striking that proxy data and historical records show such a close overall correspondence for western and central Anatolia for the period between 300 and 870 C.E. (Figure 1). During the drier climatic phase from 300 to 560 C.E., twelve droughts and eighteen famines are recorded, and during the subsequent wet phase from 560 to 730 C.E., no droughts and only two famines are noted in the historical record. After 730 C.E., droughts and famines again became more frequent, this time accompanied by severe winter weather (cold and snow), especially in the ninth and subsequent centuries.

????????? 鑒于這些潛在的困難，更令人驚訝的是，代用數(shù)據(jù)和歷史記錄顯示，公元 300 年至 870 年期間，安納托利亞西部和中部的總體對應(yīng)關(guān)系如此緊密（圖 1）。 在公元 300 年至 560 年的較干燥氣候階段，記錄了 12 次干旱和 18 次饑荒，而在隨后的公元 560 年至 730 年的濕潤階段，歷史記錄中只記錄了兩次干旱和兩次饑荒。 公元 730 年之后，干旱和饑荒再次變得更加頻繁，這一次伴隨著嚴(yán)冬（寒冷和下雪），特別是在 9 世紀(jì)及以后的世紀(jì)。

The good correspondence between the proxy and historical data sets breaks down for the late tenth and eleventh centuries; no hint of documented droughts is evident in any of the proxy-climate records. The reasons for this divergence are not entirely clear, but notably only one of the historically recorded droughts (in 1037 C.E.) is located in Anatolia; many more occurred in Greece and Macedonia to the west. The absence of reports cannot be attributed to the Byzantines' loss of central and eastern Anatolia to the Turks, because this loss did not occur until the battle of Manzikert in 1071, and Anatolia provided numerous weather reports (mainly of cold winters) prior to this date. Hence, although certain parts of the eastern Mediterranean undoubtedly experienced harsh weather conditions during the tenth and eleventh centuries, drought conditions do not appear to have affected all parts of the region.

????????? 代理數(shù)據(jù)集和歷史數(shù)據(jù)集之間的良好對應(yīng)在 10 世紀(jì)后期和 11 世紀(jì)失效； 在任何代理氣候記錄中都沒有明顯的干旱記錄跡象。 這種差異的原因尚不完全清楚，但值得注意的是，只有歷史記錄的干旱之一（公元 1037 年）發(fā)生在安納托利亞； 更多發(fā)生在希臘和西部的馬其頓。 沒有報告不能歸因于拜占庭人將安納托利亞中部和東部損失給土耳其人，因為這種損失直到 1071 年曼齊克特戰(zhàn)役才發(fā)生，而安納托利亞在此之前提供了大量天氣報告（主要是寒冷的冬天） 日期。 因此，盡管地中海東部的某些地區(qū)在 10 世紀(jì)和 11 世紀(jì)期間無疑經(jīng)歷了惡劣的天氣條件，但干旱條件似乎并未影響到該地區(qū)的所有地區(qū)。

After the second century C.E., a series of changes in regional climate patterns continued across the fifth and sixth centuries, and well into the seventh century, marking the end of the relative stability of the RWP; the impacts varied by north and south and by east and west, as well as by time. In central Anatolia, for example, the early fifth century was markedly dry, followed by the rapid onset of much wetter climatic conditions during the course of the sixth century (Figure 1). To what extent the different historical trajectories of east and west can be tied to these different climatic trends remains to be seen, although some distinct causal connections have been posited. The current state of our knowledge of these changes across several centuries is still sketchy, given both the absence of data from many areas and inadequate chronological control within some datasets, leaving a good deal of the dating uncertain. Despite the incompleteness of the regional pattern beneath the general trends, approximate parallels between climatic history and the evolution of states and societies suggest that climate and environment should figure prominently in an integrated interpretation of past events.

????????? 公元二世紀(jì)以后，區(qū)域氣候格局的一系列變化持續(xù)到五、六世紀(jì)，一直延續(xù)到七世紀(jì)，標(biāo)志著RWP相對穩(wěn)定的結(jié)束；影響因北和南、東和西以及時間而異。例如，在安納托利亞中部，五世紀(jì)初期非常干燥，隨后在六世紀(jì)期間迅速出現(xiàn)更加潮濕的氣候條件（圖 1）。盡管已經(jīng)提出了一些不同的因果關(guān)系，但東西方不同的歷史軌跡在多大程度上可以與這些不同的氣候趨勢聯(lián)系起來還有待觀察。鑒于許多地區(qū)缺乏數(shù)據(jù)，而且某些數(shù)據(jù)集中的時間順序控制不足，我們對幾個世紀(jì)以來這些變化的了解仍然是粗略的，這使得很多年代測定不確定。盡管總體趨勢下的區(qū)域模式不完整，但氣候歷史與國家和社會演變之間的大致相似之處表明，氣候和環(huán)境應(yīng)在對過去事件的綜合解釋中占據(jù)突出地位。

未完待續(xù)