簡(jiǎn)訊

3月30日，英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》(Financial Times)發(fā)表了一篇題為《我用AI“猜頭馬”》(I used AI to bet on horse-racing. Here’s what happened)的文章，副標(biāo)題是How computer-assisted betting took over the sport of kings。

本文全部由ChatGPT翻譯，筆者只做了少數(shù)幾處修改（主要是幾處雙引號(hào)）。

• 文/Oliver Roeder

• 譯/ChatGPT (Mar 23 Version)

• 譯審/花和尚

【注】本文圖片都來(lái)自Financial Times

【注】原文鏈接：

https://www.ft.com/content/402955aa-21fa-42d5-b1d7-f79e7f19a617

正文

斯科蒂“Pick Six”麥克弗(Scotty “Pick Six” McKeever)和我開(kāi)著他的黑色皮卡車(chē)以非法的速度在一條寬闊的佛羅里達(dá)高速公路上馳騁，談?wù)撝R匹。我們來(lái)晚了。在前往賽馬場(chǎng)的路上迷路了，這很奇怪，因?yàn)槿肟谔幱幸粋€(gè)110英尺高的彪馬與龍搏斗的雕像。在特殊場(chǎng)合，它會(huì)噴出火焰。我們趕到了Gulfstream Park，這是一個(gè)龐大的建筑群，位于邁阿密市中心的陰影下，我們恰好趕上了第一場(chǎng)比賽。
Scotty “Pick Six” McKeever and I drove at illegal speed along a wide Florida highway in his black pick-up truck, talking about horses. We were running late. We’d got lost on our way to the racetrack, which was odd, given that the entrance is marked by a 110ft-tall statue of Pegasus fighting a dragon. On special occasions, it breathes fire. We arrived at Gulfstream Park, a sprawling compound in the shadow of downtown Miami, just in time for the first race.

在室內(nèi)，麥克弗和我經(jīng)常停下來(lái)，讓苗條的賽馬和照顧它們的人類(lèi)隨行人員緊隨其后通過(guò)。我們穿過(guò)各種興奮和期待的“馬迷”，以及接受他們的“money”的出納員。我們乘坐電梯和一個(gè)長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)的走廊到達(dá)一個(gè)空蕩蕩的豪華套房，俯瞰著賽道，一個(gè)巨大的草地和泥地橢圓形賽道，中心有一個(gè)閃爍的池塘。

Inside, McKeever and I frequently stopped to let sleek thoroughbreds, followed closely by the human entourage tending to them, pass. We wound past gamblers, in various states of anticipation, and the tellers who take their bets. We took an elevator and a long hallway to an empty luxury suite overlooking the track, an enormous oval of grass and dirt, with a shimmering pond in the centre.

麥克弗（McKeever）坐下來(lái)，急忙從包里拿出一臺(tái)筆記本電腦。他啟動(dòng)了電腦，算法在其中閃爍著生命。它們顯示了一系列豐富多彩的指標(biāo)和圖表，評(píng)估了每匹馬的速度、家族譜系、經(jīng)驗(yàn)和獲勝的概率。麥基弗調(diào)整了一些虛擬旋鈕，消化了輸出結(jié)果，幾分鐘后登錄了一個(gè)直播，向全世界推銷(xiāo)他的電腦所選的馬匹。

McKeever took a seat and hurriedly pulled a laptop from his bag. He booted it up and the algorithms within flickered to life. They displayed a colourful array of metrics and diagrams, rating each horse’s pace, genealogy, experience and probability of winning the race. McKeever fiddled with some virtual knobs, digested the output and, after a few minutes, logged into a livestream to tout his computer’s pick to the world.

在場(chǎng)地的另一端，馬匹們被引入了閘箱，隨后從一英里長(zhǎng)的賽道的另一端傳來(lái)了一聲鈴響。數(shù)十個(gè)馬蹄按照不同步奏敲打著泥土，開(kāi)始時(shí)很安靜，然后變得越來(lái)越響亮，直到聽(tīng)起來(lái)像是一支前來(lái)的騎兵。這股滾滾的雷聲在我們下方經(jīng)過(guò)，塵土落定。麥基弗的馬贏了比賽。

The horses worked into the starting gate at the other end of the field, and a bell rang from across the mile-long track. Dozens of hooves slammed the dirt in syncopated rhythm, quiet at first, then louder, until they sounded like an approaching cavalry. The rolling thunder passed beneath us, and the dust settled. McKeever’s horse had won.

在Gulfstream賽道的那個(gè)9月的星期五，除此之外非常安靜。從包廂的陽(yáng)臺(tái)上，我可以看到十幾個(gè)觀賽者在賽道旁晃悠。他們啜著啤酒，抽著雪茄，觀看著這些威嚴(yán)的動(dòng)物走回馬廄。他們等待著下一場(chǎng)比賽中另一支馬隊(duì)的出現(xiàn)。顧客們整天重復(fù)這個(gè)循環(huán)，在兩場(chǎng)比賽之間“猜頭馬”。

It was otherwise quiet on that September Friday at Gulfstream. From the suite’s balcony, I could see a dozen racegoers milling about on the track apron. They sipped beers, smoked cigars and watched the majestic animals walk back to the paddock. They waited around for another equine battalion to emerge for the next race. The patrons repeated this cycle all day, placing bets in between.

因?yàn)轳R是能夠產(chǎn)生數(shù)據(jù)的生物，賽馬觀眾也會(huì)仔細(xì)閱讀厚厚的賽馬期刊上的小字。幾乎在賽馬場(chǎng)的每個(gè)人手里都握著《每日賽馬報(bào)》(Daily Racing Form)或賽場(chǎng)自己的賽馬手冊(cè)，里面裝滿(mǎn)了理論上可以為一天的“猜頭馬”提供信息的數(shù)字。

Because horses are data-generating creatures, the racegoers also pored over the small print in a thick periodical. Nearly everyone at a racetrack walks around clutching the reams of data in the Daily Racing Form newspaper or the track’s own programme. Each is jam-packed with figures that can, in theory, inform a day’s wagering.

但是有多少“猜頭馬”策略就有多少潛在的“馬迷”。一位老手，在Gulfstream賽道來(lái)了20年，告訴我他個(gè)人認(rèn)識(shí)所有當(dāng)?shù)氐木汃R師和騎師，因此知道誰(shuí)是熱門(mén)、誰(shuí)是冷門(mén)。一群法語(yǔ)為母語(yǔ)的加拿大游客說(shuō)他們偏愛(ài)最昂貴的馬。另一個(gè)?？徒忉屨f(shuō)，他選擇他的馬是因?yàn)樗鼡u了搖尾巴?！八呀?jīng)準(zhǔn)備好奔跑了，”他拍打著節(jié)目單說(shuō)。然后他打斷了我們的談話去“猜頭馬”了。

But there are as many horse-betting strategies as there are potential bettors. One old-timer, who’d been coming to Gulfstream for 20 years, told me he knew all the local trainers and jockeys personally and, thus, who is hot and who is cold. A group of French-Canadian tourists said they favoured the most expensive horses. Another regular explained that he picked his horse because she was wagging her tail. “She’s ready to run,” he said, slapping his programme on his knee. Then he cut our conversation short to go place his bet.

57歲的麥克弗（McKeever）更傾向于更加實(shí)證的方法。他身材高大、健壯，有著老年大學(xué)籃球明星的干凈利落的氣質(zhì)，極具魅力。他因?yàn)橐环N“猜頭馬”式而獲得了“Pick Six”的綽號(hào)，即在連續(xù)的六場(chǎng)比賽中選擇贏家——一種奇特的“猜頭馬”，即使只需投入幾分錢(qián)，也可以獲得六位數(shù)的高額回報(bào)。他一生中擊中了數(shù)百個(gè)這樣的“猜頭馬”，包括2011年贏得了110萬(wàn)美元的一次。

McKeever, 57, favours a more empirical approach. He is tall and well-built, with the clean-cut carriage of an ageing college basketball star, and endlessly charming. He earned his nickname, “Pick Six”, for a type of bet in which you pick a track’s winners in six consecutive races — an exotic wager that can pay well into six figures even on a meagre investment of a few cents. He’s hit hundreds of them in his life, including one in 2011 that paid out $1.1mn.

當(dāng)麥克弗陪我在Gulfstream賽道周?chē)邉?dòng)時(shí)，他向老手、游客、我和任何愿意聽(tīng)的人兜售他的人工智能應(yīng)用程序EquinEdge。他的新企業(yè)是對(duì)一項(xiàng)古老運(yùn)動(dòng)的最新涌現(xiàn)，這項(xiàng)運(yùn)動(dòng)現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)充斥著AI輔助技術(shù)。

As he accompanied me around the Gulfstream grounds, McKeever hawked his artificially intelligent app, called EquinEdge, to the old-timers, the tourists, me and anyone else who would listen. His new venture is a recent arrival to an ancient sport now awash in AI-assisted technology.

據(jù)美國(guó)賽馬會(huì)(Jockey Club)，2021年在美國(guó)賽馬比賽上的“猜頭馬”花費(fèi)約為120億美元。其中一部分來(lái)自像我和那些游客一樣的人，每次“猜頭馬”只有2美元。另一部分來(lái)自像麥克弗這樣的人，每次“猜頭馬”幾百美元。而高凈值的企業(yè)客戶(hù)每次“猜頭馬”可能達(dá)到數(shù)千美元。但是，在“猜頭馬”中最強(qiáng)大的人物可能并不在Gulfstream，也可能不在美國(guó)。

Some $12bn was bet on horse races in the US in 2021, according to the Jockey Club, a thoroughbred industry group. Some of it came from people like me and the tourists, $2 at a time. Some came from people like McKeever, a few hundred a pop. And perhaps thousands per bet came from high-net-worth interlopers partying in the corporate box. But the most powerful figures in horse betting weren’t at Gulfstream with McKeever and me. They may not have even been in the country.

這些高度使用計(jì)算機(jī)輔助技術(shù)“猜頭馬”的“馬迷”被統(tǒng)稱(chēng)為“計(jì)算機(jī)輔助馬迷”（Computer-assisted wagerers，CAWs），他們往往是匿名的。這些精明的“馬迷”會(huì)極度利用賽馬數(shù)據(jù)，使用算法、研究團(tuán)隊(duì)和內(nèi)部消息(sweetheart deals)等手段來(lái)獲取利潤(rùn)。近年來(lái)，他們已經(jīng)將自己的投資和“猜頭馬”規(guī)模提高到了前所未有的高度，占據(jù)全國(guó)“猜頭馬”金額的三分之一甚至更多。

Collectively known as computer-assisted wagerers, or CAWs, they are largely anonymous. These sophisticated bettors use horseracing data to the extreme, employing algorithms, research staff and sweetheart deals to enrich themselves. In recent years, they have increased their capital and their wagering to unprecedented heights, accounting for as much as one-third of the money bet nationwide.

美國(guó)的賽馬運(yùn)營(yíng)采用彩池制“猜頭馬”制度：所有在某場(chǎng)比賽上的“猜頭馬”款項(xiàng)被放入一個(gè)數(shù)字池中，賽馬場(chǎng)抽取很大一部分（通常約為20％），其余的錢(qián)則分配給贏家。他們彼此對(duì)決，而不是對(duì)“莊稼”。因此，賽馬場(chǎng)就像是一個(gè)巨大而毫無(wú)表情的撲克桌。“馬迷”們專(zhuān)注于賽馬，當(dāng)然，他們真正“猜”的是自己的意見(jiàn)比其他人更好。而最近，最好的意見(jiàn)來(lái)自機(jī)器。

Horseracing in the US operates on a pari-mutuel system: all the money bet on a given race is put into a digital pool, the track takes a large cut (typically around 20 per cent) and the rest of the money is distributed to the winners. They’re playing against each other, not the house. A racetrack therefore is an enormous, faceless poker table. Bettors wager on horses, sure, but they’re really wagering that their opinion is better than everyone else’s. Lately the best opinions are coming from the machines.

我在愛(ài)荷華州德梅因市外的草原草地(Prairie Meadows)上長(zhǎng)大，那里的馬場(chǎng)是我童年時(shí)代的愛(ài)和迷戀之地。盡管這個(gè)地方的名字聽(tīng)起來(lái)很田園詩(shī)般，但從生態(tài)學(xué)的角度來(lái)看，它更應(yīng)該被稱(chēng)為停車(chē)場(chǎng)(Parking Lots)。但它是我學(xué)會(huì)了煙草、啤酒和紙幣的難以磨滅的氣味的地方。我經(jīng)常和我的祖父一起去，他是一個(gè)牛肉養(yǎng)殖場(chǎng)主和紙牌游戲玩家。賽馬場(chǎng)的看臺(tái)，不像Du場(chǎng)，是一個(gè)他可以同時(shí)“猜頭馬”和陪伴孫子的地方。他會(huì)把我抬起來(lái)，讓我能夠從“猜頭馬”窗口的柜臺(tái)上看到外面的場(chǎng)景，我會(huì)遞給窗口員工他給我的紙幣，“請(qǐng)?jiān)诘?匹馬上‘猜’兩美元，謝謝”，我低聲說(shuō)道。無(wú)論我贏了多少，都能自己留下來(lái)。

I was raised on horse races at Prairie Meadows, outside Des Moines, Iowa, where I grew up. Despite its pastoral name, ecologically the place would be more accurately called Parking Lots. But it was the site of great childhood love and fascination. It was where I learnt the indelible smells of cigarettes and beer and paper currency. I often went with my grandfather, a cattle farmer and cardplayer. The racetrack grandstand, unlike the casino floor, was a place where he could both gamble and spend time with his small grandchildren. He’d lift me up so I could see over the counter at the betting window, and I’d hand over the notes he’d given me. “Two dollars to win on the No 4, please,” I’d whisper. Whatever I won, I could keep.

這些是浪漫的旅行，也是分析性的旅行。我祖父的胳膊彎里總是有《每日賽馬報(bào)》，這是賽馬的起源文本(the urtext of horseracing)，里面有數(shù)據(jù)和細(xì)節(jié)。我估計(jì)，每場(chǎng)比賽中平均有幾千個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)點(diǎn)。這些頁(yè)面列出了馬匹的名字、馬主、練馬師和騎師；母系和父系；年齡；體重；售價(jià)；所有過(guò)去比賽的日期和地點(diǎn)；各個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)的比賽時(shí)間；各個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)在場(chǎng)地中的相對(duì)位置；所有者的彩衣；每次比賽的短評(píng)等等。

These were romantic trips but also analytical ones. Ever-present in the crook of my grandfather’s arm was the Daily Racing Form, the urtext of horseracing, with the data and the small print. There are, by my reckoning, a couple of thousand data points for an average race contained within. The pages list a horse’s name; owner, trainer and jockey; mother (dam) and father (sire); age; weight; sale price; dates and locations of all past races; times in those races at various points of call; relative position in the field at various points of call; the owner’s silk colours; a short qualitative note on each performance; and much else.

祖父教我讀報(bào)表，把它難以理解的數(shù)字轉(zhuǎn)化為語(yǔ)言，一種可理解并轉(zhuǎn)化為即將發(fā)生的比賽場(chǎng)面的方言。這是一種既實(shí)證又文學(xué)的練習(xí)。在賽馬場(chǎng)上，我認(rèn)為，你在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，是要講述最引人入勝的故事。

Grandpa taught me to read the Form, to turn its inscrutable figures into language, a dialect that could be understood and turned into a vision of the race that was about to be run. It was an exercise equal parts empirical and literary. At the track, I like to think, you are competing to tell the most compelling story.

在賽馬運(yùn)動(dòng)中推廣現(xiàn)代經(jīng)驗(yàn)法的第一位玩家是安德魯?拜爾(Andrew Beyer)。拜爾長(zhǎng)期擔(dān)任《華盛頓郵報(bào)》的賽馬運(yùn)動(dòng)專(zhuān)欄作家，撰寫(xiě)了一部經(jīng)典三部曲：《選擇贏家》(1975)、《贏錢(qián)的馬戲演員》(1983)和《拜爾關(guān)于速度》(1993)。如果《每日賽馬報(bào)》是賽馬運(yùn)動(dòng)的圣經(jīng)，那么這些是它的注釋。這三本書(shū)中，我記憶最深的是《拜爾關(guān)于速度》這一本，不僅因?yàn)樗巳雱俚臉?biāo)題，還因?yàn)槲以跔敔數(shù)臅?shū)房里第一次閱讀的那一本破舊不堪。

The first horseplayer to popularise the modern empirics of the track was Andrew Beyer. The longtime horseracing columnist for the Washington Post, Beyer wrote a trilogy of classic texts on racing: Picking Winners (1975), The Winning Horseplayer (1983) and Beyer on Speed (1993). If the Daily Racing Form is horseracing scripture, these are the exegesis. It’s the last of these volumes that I remember most vividly, both for its evocative title and the dog-eared condition of the first copy I read, in my grandpa’s den.

Beyer是一位教授的兒子，他在20世紀(jì)60年代進(jìn)入哈佛大學(xué)，但從未畢業(yè)。校園附近有四個(gè)賽馬場(chǎng)，而關(guān)于英國(guó)作家喬叟的期末考試與貝爾蒙特錦標(biāo)賽(Belmont Stakes)沖突了。無(wú)論如何，他發(fā)現(xiàn)“猜頭馬”提供了“比正規(guī)學(xué)術(shù)領(lǐng)域中任何學(xué)科都更多的智力挑戰(zhàn)和刺激”。

The son of a professor, Beyer attended Harvard in the 1960s but never graduated. There were four racetracks near campus, and a final exam on Chaucer conflicted with the Belmont Stakes. In any case, he found that horse-race betting offered “more mental challenge and stimulation than any subject in the formal academic world”.

Beyer的中心假設(shè)是馬匹的速度很重要并且可以量化。畢竟這是一場(chǎng)競(jìng)賽。挑戰(zhàn)是創(chuàng)建一個(gè)指標(biāo)來(lái)準(zhǔn)確衡量這種速度。這比較容易說(shuō)而不容易做，而且只靠碼表是不夠的。馬匹在各種不同質(zhì)量、深度和濕度的泥土上比賽，或者在草地上或人造草皮上比賽。它們奔跑的距離也不同，通常在五至十二個(gè)弗隆(furlong)之間。（一個(gè)弗隆約200米）。它們奔跑時(shí)經(jīng)歷著冷雨和炎熱的陽(yáng)光。馬匹在小賽場(chǎng)和大賽場(chǎng)中奔跑，或者在豪華的場(chǎng)地和廉價(jià)的場(chǎng)地上奔跑。沒(méi)有兩場(chǎng)比賽是完全相同的。

Beyer’s central hypothesis was that horses’ speed matters and can be quantified. It is a race, after all. The challenge was to create a metric to accurately gauge that speed. This is much easier said than done, and a stopwatch is not enough. Horses race on dirt of varying quality and depth and moisture, or on grass, or on artificial turf. They run many different distances, typically somewhere between five and twelve furlongs. (A furlong is an eighth of a mile.) They run through cold rain and hot sunshine. They run as members of small fields and large ones, rich fields and cheap ones. No two races are created equal.

在20世紀(jì)70年代初，Beyer帶著削尖的鉛筆、一個(gè)小計(jì)算器、大張的紙張、高高的一摞《每日賽馬報(bào)》以及一瓶杰克丹尼士，開(kāi)始了他煞費(fèi)苦心的工作。通過(guò)仔細(xì)和全面地考慮場(chǎng)地的偏見(jiàn)，并相應(yīng)地調(diào)整馬匹的計(jì)時(shí)時(shí)間，他把這些復(fù)雜因素縮減到一個(gè)數(shù)字里：速度指數(shù)(speed figure)。速度指數(shù)允許在加州和佛羅里達(dá)的馬匹、在5弗隆和6弗隆之間、在低級(jí)賣(mài)馬賽和高級(jí)錦標(biāo)賽賽之間進(jìn)行可靠的比較。Beyer在1975年寫(xiě)道：“速度指數(shù)澄清了這項(xiàng)運(yùn)動(dòng)我一直認(rèn)為超出人類(lèi)理解的神秘、微妙和表面上的矛盾?！?/p>

In the early 1970s — armed with sharpened pencils, a mini calculator, large sheets of paper, tall stacks of the Daily Racing Form and a bottle of Jack Daniel’s — Beyer performed his painstaking work. By carefully and thoroughly accounting for the biases of tracks and adjusting horses’ clocked times accordingly, he collapsed the complications down into a single number: a speed figure. Speed figures allowed for reliable comparisons between California horses and Florida horses, between five furlongs and six, between a lowly claiming race and a big-money graded stakes. “Speed figures clarified mysteries, subtleties and apparent contradictions of the sport that I had always thought were beyond human understanding,” Beyer wrote in 1975.

Beyer的私人計(jì)算方法早已成功，主要是因?yàn)樗挠?jì)算給了他很好的優(yōu)勢(shì)。他出版的書(shū)籍教育了市場(chǎng)，侵蝕了他的優(yōu)勢(shì)。?Beyer接受了這個(gè)折衷，因?yàn)樗氤蔀橐晃怀霭孀骷摇Ｎ夷芾斫馑南敕ā?Beyer告訴我說(shuō)：“就數(shù)學(xué)復(fù)雜度而言，它最多只有高中代數(shù)的水平。但它改變了我的生活，隨著時(shí)間的推移，它也改變了游戲。”?這種方法已經(jīng)深入人心，以至于Beyer Speed Figures現(xiàn)在在《每日賽馬報(bào)》上以粗體字顯示，每匹馬的每場(chǎng)比賽都會(huì)列出。?CAW大玩家、麥基弗的EquinEdge和許多其他最近的項(xiàng)目都是Beyer的鉛筆和紙張計(jì)算方法的直接后代。

By then, Beyer was already a successful gambler, in large part because his private calculations gave him a healthy edge. His books’ publication educated the market and eroded his advantage. Beyer accepted this trade-off because he wanted to be a published author. I sympathised. “In terms of mathematical sophistication, it was at best high school algebra,” Beyer told me of his arrival at the speed figure. “But it changed my life and, over time, it changed the game.” The approach became so ingrained that Beyer Speed Figures now appear in bold type in the Daily Racing Form, alongside every horse’s every race. The CAW syndicates, McKeever’s EquinEdge and many other recent projects are direct descendants of Beyer’s pencil-and-paper calculations.

在Beyer的賽馬書(shū)籍中，除了他的深刻分析之外，還流淌著宗教隱喻。他寫(xiě)道，“掌管賽馬運(yùn)動(dòng)的神”，“加爾文主義者的自律”，“彌賽亞狂熱”和“連勝讓他覺(jué)得自己是上帝”。他寫(xiě)道，《每日賽馬報(bào)》“在賽馬玩家的生命中占據(jù)著《圣經(jīng)》在‘虔誠(chéng)’信徒的生命中的地位?！?我提到了這個(gè)主題，他似乎很驚訝?！拔沂且粋€(gè)非常不虔誠(chéng)的人，”Beyer說(shuō)。他停了一下。“但當(dāng)我發(fā)現(xiàn)速度數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)，它們是道路、真理和光明?！?/p>

In addition to their trenchant analyses, Beyer’s horse books pulsate with religious metaphor. He writes of the “gods who oversee horseracing”, “the discipline of a Calvinist”, “messianic fervour” and “winning streaks that make him think he is God”. The Daily Racing Form, he writes, “occupies the place in the existence of a horseplayer that a Bible does in the life of a fundamentalist”. I mentioned this theme to him and he seemed surprised. “I’m a very irreligious person,” Beyer said. He paused. “But when I discovered speed figures, they were the way, the truth, the light.”

無(wú)論信教與否，這個(gè)游戲中有一定的信仰成分。其中一部分原因是身體上的事實(shí)(a physical fact)。例如，在Gulfstream賽馬場(chǎng)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)觀看比賽時(shí)，馬匹開(kāi)始從賽道遠(yuǎn)端的一個(gè)閘箱開(kāi)始奔跑，一開(kāi)始被告示牌和一個(gè)巨大的視頻屏幕遮擋。它們就在那里，你知道，只有靠信仰才能讓它們奔跑。然后它們出現(xiàn)了，信念—以及數(shù)據(jù)—轉(zhuǎn)化為有肌肉的現(xiàn)實(shí)(muscular reality)。

Irreligious or not, there is a certain amount of faith to this game. Part of that is a physical fact. In person at Gulfstream, for example, the horses begin running out of a gate at the far end of the track, hidden, at first, by the tote board and an enormous video screen. They are back there somewhere, you know it, and it is by faith alone that they are running. Then they emerge and belief — and data — transform into muscular reality.

Beyer?對(duì)?CAW?的復(fù)雜性和他們對(duì)這項(xiàng)運(yùn)動(dòng)科學(xué)的冷靜熱衷感到驚嘆。他回憶起曾經(jīng)遇到一位“馬迷”，他聘請(qǐng)了一位大學(xué)教授長(zhǎng)達(dá)三年的時(shí)間來(lái)研究馬匹比賽中的“距離因素”。在這樣的對(duì)手面前，公眾有什么機(jī)會(huì)呢？學(xué)生們愛(ài)上這項(xiàng)運(yùn)動(dòng)的機(jī)會(huì)又有多大呢？Beyer說(shuō)，新的“馬迷”現(xiàn)在可能更喜歡在足球比賽中“猜頭馬”。換句話說(shuō)，他創(chuàng)造了一個(gè)怪物。他說(shuō)：“我認(rèn)為，這些大玩家導(dǎo)致了對(duì)普通玩家的徹底剝削?！?/p>

Beyer marvels at the CAWs’ sophistication and icy devotion to the science of the sport. He recalled meeting one player who had a university professor on a three-year retainer just to study the “distance factor” in horse races. With this sort of opponent, what chance does the public have? What chance does the student have of falling in love with the track? New horse bettors may just be happier betting on football these days, Beyer said. He created a monster, in other words. “The syndicates have contributed, in my view, to a total rip-off of the average player,” he said.

最為活躍的計(jì)算機(jī)大玩家是位于荷蘭加勒比島嶼庫(kù)拉索的Elite Turf Club。全球只有約20人擁有該公司的賬戶(hù)。去年在Gulfstream Park的一個(gè)賽馬日中，超過(guò)四分之一的“猜頭馬”總額——近450萬(wàn)美元——由Elite成員通過(guò)電子方式“猜下”。該俱樂(lè)部通過(guò)將其大額“馬迷”會(huì)員連接到各種“猜頭馬”池并提供定制的“猜頭馬”和結(jié)果報(bào)告，促進(jìn)了其會(huì)員的大額“猜頭馬”活動(dòng)。

The most prolific of the computer syndicates are members of the Elite Turf Club, a company based in Cura?ao, the island tax haven in the Dutch Caribbean. Only about 20 people in the world have active accounts with Elite. On a single day at Gulfstream Park last year, more than a quarter of the betting total — nearly $4.5mn — was placed electronically by Elite members. The club facilitates its mega-bettor members’ activities by connecting them at high speeds to various betting pools and by providing tailored reporting of their wagers and results.

這些Elite的巨額“猜頭馬”大部分來(lái)自?xún)蓚€(gè)賬戶(hù)，“Elite Turf Club 17”和“Elite Turf Club 2”。這兩個(gè)人以及他們雇傭的人員可能占據(jù)了美國(guó)近20%的所有“猜頭馬”數(shù)額，這是《金融時(shí)報(bào)》對(duì)“猜頭馬”進(jìn)行的數(shù)據(jù)分析。

The bulk of this Elite money is wagered from two accounts, called “Elite Turf Club 17” and “Elite Turf Club 2”. These two people alone, and whomever they employ, may account for nearly 20 per cent of all horse-race betting in the US, according to a Financial Times analysis of wagering data.

當(dāng)我和Elite Turf Club的總裁Scott Daruty交談時(shí)，他告訴我他不會(huì)回答任何有關(guān)“猜頭馬”賬戶(hù)或Elite會(huì)員的個(gè)人問(wèn)題。“所有這些都將被拒絕評(píng)論，”他援引保密協(xié)議?！癊lite Turf Club是一家為世界上一些最大的‘馬迷’提供服務(wù)的‘猜頭馬’平臺(tái)，”他繼續(xù)說(shuō)道。“我們?yōu)橐恍〔糠挚蛻?hù)提供定制化、個(gè)人服務(wù)?！睋碛袠O大權(quán)力的最大Elite賬戶(hù)會(huì)員密切保護(hù)自己的隱私；多次安排與他們中的幾個(gè)人面談的嘗試都未能成功。

When I spoke with Scott Daruty, the president of Elite Turf Club, he told me that he wouldn’t answer any questions about wagering amounts or individual Elite members. “All of those are going to be met with a no-comment,” he said, citing confidentiality agreements. “Elite Turf Club is a wagering platform that services some of the largest bettors in the world,” he continued. “We’re servicing a limited number of customers, and it’s a bespoke, hands-on service that we provide.” The largest Elite accounts, the people who hold extreme power over the sport, guard their privacy closely; repeated attempts to arrange interviews with several of them were unsuccessful.

事實(shí)上，Elite Turf Club和Gulfstream Park都由同一家公司Stronach Group所有。Stronach在美國(guó)擁有其他幾個(gè)賽馬場(chǎng)。該公司的創(chuàng)始人Frank Stronach為巨大飛馬雕像草繪了第一份計(jì)劃，就是我前文說(shuō)到的那個(gè)雕像。計(jì)算機(jī)大玩家的成功在很大程度上要?dú)w功于他們與賽馬場(chǎng)達(dá)成的協(xié)議。這些大“馬迷”獲得被稱(chēng)為回扣(rebates)的折扣，通常他們投入的10%左右會(huì)返還給他們以確保他們持續(xù)地“猜頭馬”?！拔覀冋J(rèn)為不讓第三方介入我們和這些客戶(hù)之間非常重要，”當(dāng)我詢(xún)問(wèn)Elite和賽道之間的安排時(shí)，Daruty告訴我。

As it happens, Elite and Gulfstream Park are owned by the same company, the Stronach Group. Stronach owns a number of other racetracks across the US. (Frank Stronach, its founder, sketched the first plans for the gigantic Pegasus statue that greeted McKeever and me.) The computer syndicates are successful in large part because of deals they cut with tracks. These large bettors receive volume discounts known as rebates, and typically about 10 per cent of whatever they bet is returned to them to ensure their continued business. “We felt it important not to have a third party standing in between us and these customers,” Daruty told me, when I asked about the arrangement between Elite and the tracks.

“我們投入很多錢(qián)，而在另一端是普通大眾，” David Bernsen告訴我。Bernsen是GWG集團(tuán)的經(jīng)理，該公司是一群CAW玩家的集合體，專(zhuān)門(mén)“開(kāi)發(fā)和管理高容量連接軟件和商業(yè)解決方案”，根據(jù)其網(wǎng)站上的介紹。并非有很多主要的CAW玩家。Bernsen估計(jì)在美國(guó)只有四個(gè)“非常大”的CAW“馬迷”群體，或許還有幾個(gè)位于其下層次的“馬迷”。

“We wager lots of money, and on the other end of the spectrum is the general public,” David Bernsen told me. Bernsen is the manager of GWG Group, a collective of CAW players, specialising “in the development and management of high-capacity connectivity software and business solutions”, according to its website. There aren’t many major CAWs. Bernsen estimated there are four “very large” CAW bettors active in the US and perhaps half a dozen in a tier below them.

“大型‘馬迷’群體是精密的運(yùn)營(yíng)，就像股票交易團(tuán)隊(duì)一樣，” Bernsen說(shuō)。“它們是一個(gè)適當(dāng)?shù)臉I(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)。你有你的建模方面，你的業(yè)務(wù)方面，你有你的研究和開(kāi)發(fā)方面——花費(fèi)了很多錢(qián)?！彼杆贋樗麄?cè)谶@項(xiàng)運(yùn)動(dòng)中扮演的角色進(jìn)行了辯護(hù)?！拔覀兯龅囊磺芯褪瞧胶獬刈?，使其更加有效。這與股票市場(chǎng)或‘甲米獲筆’市場(chǎng)的閃電交易并無(wú)二致。”

“The larger ones are sophisticated operations, like a stock-trading team,” Bernsen said. “They’re a proper business structure. You have your modelling side, your business side, you have your research and development side — a lot of money is spent.” He was quick to defend their role in the sport. “All we’re doing is balancing out the pool to make it more efficient. It’s not unlike flash trading in the stock markets or the crypto markets.”

這股錢(qián)多勢(shì)大的入侵賽馬運(yùn)動(dòng)引發(fā)了一些人專(zhuān)門(mén)從事調(diào)查其影響的職業(yè)生涯。帕特里克·卡明斯(Patrick Cummings)運(yùn)營(yíng)著純血馬點(diǎn)子基金會(huì)（Thoroughbred Idea Foundation），這個(gè)智庫(kù)成立于2018年，旨在解決賽馬界的利益沖突和走向錯(cuò)誤的問(wèn)題。該基金會(huì)在2020年發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道：“這些（CAW）機(jī)構(gòu)大筆投入，因?yàn)檫@是數(shù)學(xué)所決定的。這就是華爾街與賽馬界的結(jié)合。他們不會(huì)輸，如果你試圖減少他們的回扣，他們會(huì)尋找其他的“猜頭馬”渠道?！?/p>

This moneyed invasion into the sport of kings has goaded some people to devote their professional lives to investigating its impact. Patrick Cummings runs the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation, a think-tank founded in 2018 on the belief that horseracing was riddled with conflicts of interest and heading in the wrong direction. “These [CAW] entities bet big because that is what the math dictates. This is Wall Street meeting horseracing,” reads a report the foundation published in 2020. “They don’t lose, and if you try to reduce their rebates, they will turn to another source for betting.”

根據(jù)卡明斯的研究，在過(guò)去的20年中，調(diào)整通貨膨脹后，美國(guó)普通大眾在賽馬界的總投入額減少了63％。與此同時(shí)，來(lái)自CAWs的投入金額增長(zhǎng)了150％。卡明斯稱(chēng)，我和麥克弗一起去的海灣公園（Gulfstream Park）是電腦團(tuán)體的“起點(diǎn)”(ground zero)。?“賽馬運(yùn)動(dòng)無(wú)法拒絕客戶(hù)，但我們已經(jīng)接受并擁抱了這些大戶(hù)，幾乎沒(méi)有考慮如果不加以控制會(huì)造成的損害，”卡明斯告訴我。“失去普通的賽馬玩家并不是一件好事，而我們已經(jīng)失去了很多?！?/p>

According to Cummings’s research, in the past two decades, adjusting for inflation, total betting on US horseracing from the general public decreased 63 per cent. Betting from CAWs, meanwhile, increased 150 per cent. Cummings called Gulfstream Park, the track I went to with McKeever, “ground zero” for the computer groups. “Horseracing is not in a position to reject customers. Yet we have accepted and embraced these whales, with little to no consideration of the damage that they do if left unchecked,” Cummings told me. “It’s not a good thing to be losing Joe Q Horseplayer, and we’ve lost a lot of them.”

麥克弗則自認(rèn)為站在普通賽馬玩家的一邊。他在EquinEdge的13名全職員工和合同工組成的團(tuán)隊(duì)想要進(jìn)行自己的CAW“猜頭馬”，但麥克弗拒絕了?！拔抑С中⊥婕?，這就是我推動(dòng)的，”他告訴我。“我將我所擁有的每一份信息，我們開(kāi)發(fā)的所有東西，以及我們的技術(shù)都提供給他們。我所做的一切都是為了小玩家。大玩家認(rèn)為他們已經(jīng)知道了一切。我想照顧好小玩家。”

McKeever, for his part, sees himself on Joe Q Horseplayer’s side. His team of 13 full-time employees and contractors at EquinEdge wanted to do its own CAW wagering. But McKeever refused. “I am for the small guy, that’s what I’m pushing for,” he told me. “I give them every bit of information that I have, everything we develop, all of our technology. Everything I do is for the little guy. The big guy thinks he knows it already. It’s the little guy I want to take care of.”

《每日賽馬報(bào)》是賽馬愛(ài)好者的權(quán)威期刊，如今也進(jìn)入了技術(shù)時(shí)代。這家出版物由拉斯維加斯的Affinity Interactive公司擁有，該公司在其網(wǎng)站上被描述為“一個(gè)全渠道游戲行業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，擁有擴(kuò)展的‘猜頭馬’和在線游戲服務(wù)套件”?！睹咳召愸R報(bào)》提供了一個(gè)被稱(chēng)為“賽馬的彭博終端”(Bloomberg terminal of racing)的Formulator和TimeformUS，它使用算法預(yù)測(cè)和數(shù)據(jù)可視化來(lái)幫助“馬迷”。該公司的“猜頭馬”和數(shù)據(jù)高級(jí)副總裁馬克?阿滕伯格（Marc Attenberg）迅速指出，人類(lèi)的推理和直覺(jué)仍然有發(fā)揮的空間。“有些東西只有通過(guò)算法是看不出來(lái)的，”他告訴我?！斑@就是為什么人們?nèi)匀幌矚g它。提出那些聰明的看法仍然有很多潛力?！?/p>

The Daily Racing Form, that august periodical in the crook of the racegoer’s arm, has itself entered the technological age. The publication is owned by Affinity Interactive, a Las Vegas-based company described on its website as “an omni-channel gaming industry leader with an expanded suite of casino and online gaming offerings”. The Racing Form offers a “Bloomberg terminal of racing” called Formulator and TimeformUS, which uses algorithmic prediction and data visualisation to aid handicappers. Marc Attenberg, the company’s senior vice-president for handicapping and data, was quick to note that there is still room for human reasoning and intuition. “There’s some shit going on that just doesn’t show up in the algorithm,” he told me. “That’s why people still love it. There’s still so much upside attached to coming up with those clever opinions.”

阿滕伯格認(rèn)為，一個(gè)單獨(dú)使用計(jì)算機(jī)進(jìn)行“猜頭馬”的人可以在賽馬場(chǎng)上達(dá)到打平的效果。但是要持續(xù)獲得巨額利潤(rùn)，需要大型CAW與賽馬場(chǎng)協(xié)商的回扣。包括CAW的批評(píng)者在內(nèi)的所有人都沒(méi)有提到這種安排有任何非法之處。阿滕伯格說(shuō)最優(yōu)秀的玩家找到了將人類(lèi)專(zhuān)業(yè)知識(shí)疊加在機(jī)器之上的方法。“賽馬將你帶入了這些微小的戲劇中，你可以將它們變成巨大的收益?！?/p>

Attenberg reckoned that a computer betting by itself could break even at the track. But consistently making enormous profits requires the rebates the big CAWs have negotiated for with the tracks. (No one I spoke to, including the CAWs’ critics, suggested there was anything illegal about this arrangement.) The best players, he said, find ways to layer human expertise on top of the machine. “Racing thrusts you into these miniature dramas that you can turn into huge scores.”

我欣賞了這個(gè)描述，并告訴阿滕伯格我是如何在普雷里梅多斯度過(guò)童年時(shí)光的。在我們的談話中，我有一次對(duì)現(xiàn)代實(shí)證賽馬“猜頭馬”狀態(tài)感到失望，想念過(guò)去童年的夜晚，講述即將到來(lái)的比賽。我認(rèn)為“它們只是在圓圈里奔跑的倒霉動(dòng)物(They’re goddamn animals running around in circles)”。

I appreciated this description, and told Attenberg how I’d cut my teeth as a kid at Prairie Meadows. At one point during our conversation, I became frustrated with the modern state of empirical horse betting, missing bygone childhood evenings, telling tales about the race to come. “They’re goddamn animals running around in circles,” I said.

阿滕伯格說(shuō)：“這不僅僅是一群馬的問(wèn)題。你要評(píng)磅；你要做功課；你要看重播；你要看到微妙之處。你要使用最好的工具，并加以利用?！?/p>

“There’s more to this than just a bunch of horses,” Attenberg said. “You handicap; you do the work; you watch the replays; you see the subtleties. You use the best possible tools and you leverage them.”

詳細(xì)的賽馬“猜頭馬”數(shù)據(jù)很難得到，但加利福尼亞州賽馬委員會(huì)（CHRB）的年度報(bào)告提供了一個(gè)很好的簡(jiǎn)要說(shuō)明。對(duì)于該州的每個(gè)賽馬場(chǎng)，一個(gè)主要的賽馬中心，CHRB報(bào)告了來(lái)自每個(gè)注冊(cè)地點(diǎn)的總交易額。這些包括賽道本身、賽馬場(chǎng)外的“猜頭馬”設(shè)施、網(wǎng)站、本地的“猜頭馬”場(chǎng)所，以及Elite Turf Club 17和Elite Turf Club 2。根據(jù)這些報(bào)告，過(guò)去15年中，Elite Turf Club的成員將他們所有賽馬投入金額從3%增加到30%。從加利福尼亞州的數(shù)據(jù)簡(jiǎn)單推算表明，Elite 17和Elite 2每年在美國(guó)賽馬上的投入金額達(dá)到了10億美元左右。

Detailed horse-betting data is hard to come by, but the annual reports of the California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) provide a good snapshot. For each track in the state, a major centre of the sport, the CHRB reports the total money handled from every registered location. These include the track itself, off-track betting facilities, websites, local betting parlours — and Elite Turf Club 17 and 2. According to these reports, over the past 15 years in California, members of Elite Turf Club have increased their wagering from 3 per cent to 30 per cent of all horse-betting dollars. A simple extrapolation from the California data suggests that Elite 17 and Elite 2 each wager on the order of $1bn a year on horses in the US.

“你怎么得到加州不同的Elite玩家信息的？”CAW集體的經(jīng)理伯恩森問(wèn)我，當(dāng)我提到這個(gè)話題時(shí)。他聽(tīng)起來(lái)很驚訝。我還向伯恩森詢(xún)問(wèn)了更多關(guān)于這些巨額賬戶(hù)背后的人是誰(shuí)的細(xì)節(jié)?！拔也缓腿藗冇懻撨@個(gè)問(wèn)題，”他說(shuō)。“這有什么重要性嗎？”

“How did you get information about different Elite players in California?” Bernsen, the manager of the CAW collective, asked me, when I mentioned this. He sounded surprised. I also asked Bernsen for more detail on who was behind these mega-accounts. “I don’t discuss it with people,” he said. “Why is that important?”

精明而資本雄厚的“馬迷”并不是什么新鮮事物。上世紀(jì)90年代，一個(gè)名叫比爾?本特（Bill Benter）的“馬迷”和他的團(tuán)隊(duì)在香港的賽馬比賽中獲得了近十億美元的回報(bào)，而關(guān)于神秘大玩家的報(bào)道偶爾會(huì)出現(xiàn)在賽馬新聞中。但他們?cè)诿绹?guó)的突出地位是一個(gè)相對(duì)較新的現(xiàn)象。伯恩森將這歸因于美國(guó)稅法的最近變化，使“猜頭馬”變得更加有利可圖。

Sophisticated, well-capitalised horseplayers aren’t brand new. A bettor named Bill Benter and his team made close to a billion dollars betting on horses in Hong Kong in the 1990s, and references to mysterious Australian whales occasionally punctuate the horseracing press. But their outsize prominence in the US is a relatively recent phenomenon. Bernsen attributed this in part to recent changes in the American tax code that made gambling more profitable.

雖然目前這些大玩家使用的確切策略都是嚴(yán)格保密的，就像量化公司的交易策略一樣，但我采訪了一些相關(guān)專(zhuān)家，以了解他們的運(yùn)作方式和“猜頭馬”方式?？死锼?拉米(Chris Larmey)今年62歲，是一名從事風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃的國(guó)家實(shí)驗(yàn)室工作的賽馬玩家。他曾與CAW團(tuán)隊(duì)合作，但他說(shuō)自己被“年輕人”和他們的“黑匣子AI建?！睊佋诹撕竺?。拉米在大學(xué)時(shí)是一個(gè)數(shù)學(xué)專(zhuān)業(yè)的學(xué)生，他手動(dòng)輸入比賽結(jié)果到打孔卡上，并借用大學(xué)的大型計(jì)算機(jī)進(jìn)行分析。這項(xiàng)艱苦的工作使他能夠挑選出1982年肯塔基德比的前兩名，即21-1和18-1的冷門(mén)贏家Gato Del Sol和Laser Light。這是他的大學(xué)畢業(yè)論文。他已經(jīng)不記得他贏了多少錢(qián)了。

While the exact strategies used by the current whales are closely guarded, like trading strategies at a quant firm, I spoke to some adjacent experts to get a sense of how they operate and how they bet. Chris Larmey, 62, is a horseplayer with a day job at a US national laboratory doing risk management and strategic planning. He has been involved with CAW teams, though he said he’s felt left behind by the “young guys” and their “black-box AI modelling”. Larmey started in the game as a maths major in university, manually entering race results on to punch cards and cadging time on the university’s mainframe computer to analyse them. This painstaking work equipped him to pick the first two runners at the 1982 Kentucky Derby, the 21-1 and 18-1 longshots Gato Del Sol and Laser Light. It was his senior-year project. He no longer remembers how much money he won.

Larmey提到了CAWs采用的兩種廣泛策略。一種是純粹的套利(pure arbitrage)。通過(guò)密切監(jiān)控投入池，有時(shí)可以發(fā)現(xiàn)直白的無(wú)效率，比如在WIN和EXACTA之間，然后利用它們。另一種策略是通過(guò)現(xiàn)有的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)和網(wǎng)頁(yè)抓取來(lái)收集大量數(shù)據(jù)，然后分析數(shù)據(jù)以計(jì)算馬匹的真實(shí)概率，并將其與其公共概率進(jìn)行比較。例如，如果一匹馬有50%的贏的幾率，概率是2-1，那么這是一個(gè)很好的投入。如果是3-5，那么這是一個(gè)很糟糕的投入。換句話說(shuō)，當(dāng)其他人的資金流向相反方向時(shí)，需要采取相反的策略。價(jià)格很重要，價(jià)格是普通人思想的反映。

Larmey described two broad strategies employed by CAWs. One is pure arbitrage. By closely monitoring the betting pools, one can sometimes spot naked inefficiencies — between the win and exacta pools, for example — and exploit them. The other is amassing gobs of data via existing databases and web-scraping, then analysing it to calculate a horse’s true odds and comparing that to its pari-mutuel price. For example, if a horse is expected to win 50 per cent of the time and it’s 2-1, that’s a great bet. If it’s 3-5, that’s a terrible bet. In other words, one wants to zig when the rest of the money zags. Price matters, and price is a reflection of the will of the people.

CAW的機(jī)器會(huì)將一堆有吸引力的投入捆綁在一起，有時(shí)會(huì)一次性投入數(shù)千次?！坝行┤司帉?xiě)程序并看管計(jì)算機(jī)系統(tǒng)，但它真的是自動(dòng)化的投入，”Larmey說(shuō)。CAW的玩家也以在最后一刻進(jìn)行投入而聞名，就在馬匹沖出門(mén)前的那一刻，以了解公眾的意見(jiàn)和他們的投入價(jià)格。像Elite Turf Club這樣的團(tuán)體提供其會(huì)員以速度和規(guī)模做到這一點(diǎn)的技術(shù)能力。因此，當(dāng)大筆投入涌入時(shí)，公眾經(jīng)常接受大幅的最后一刻的概率變化。

The CAWs’ machines bundle an attractive pile of bets together, sometimes thousands at a time, and ship them into the pool. “There are people that write the programs and babysit the computer systems, but it’s really automated wagering,” Larmey said. CAW players are also infamous for placing their bets at the last possible second, just before the horses dash out of the gate, to learn as much information as they can about the opinions of the general public and, therefore, the price of their bets. The technical ability to do this at speed and scale is what a group like Elite Turf Club offers its members. As a result, the public often swallows large, last-second odds changes as the big money comes flooding in.

“我們只是在使用大量的信息，在‘猜頭馬’業(yè)務(wù)中這就是我們所做的事情，” Bernsen說(shuō)。“構(gòu)建我們的投入，利用技術(shù)在盡可能晚的時(shí)間提交大量的投入。這是因?yàn)槲覀冃枰姷囊庖?jiàn)。投入池的最佳預(yù)測(cè)器就是大眾——眾人的智慧?！?/p>

“We’re just using an enormous amount of information, that’s what we do in the pari-mutuel business,” said Bernsen. “Construct our wagers and use technology to submit a large number of wagers as late as possible. That’s because we need the public’s input. The best predictor of the win pool is the general public — just wisdom of the crowds.”

原文這里有4張圖，很好地展示了CAW在開(kāi)賽前幾秒是如何“猜頭馬”并獲利的，但不方便放到文章里，大家可以直接去看原文。

CAWs不會(huì)抱懷舊情懷，這一點(diǎn)毫不含糊?！坝?jì)算機(jī)的一個(gè)好處就是它們沒(méi)有任何情感，” Larmey說(shuō)?！澳悴粫?huì)有任何后悔或恐懼，它只會(huì)按照算法執(zhí)行?！?/p>

CAWs have no quarter for the romantic notions of bygone childhood evenings at the track. “That’s one of the nice things about computers: they don’t have any emotions,” Larmey said. “You don’t have any of that regret or fear; it just executes according to the algorithms.”

我與一位現(xiàn)代派電腦玩家交換了信息，他同意匿名談話。一位業(yè)內(nèi)人士形容他為“非常聰明的家伙”(“fucking genius guy”)。他學(xué)習(xí)了應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)和金融，并在對(duì)沖基金量化團(tuán)隊(duì)工作。他通過(guò)研究撲克機(jī)器人和“閱讀晦澀的機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)論文”，以及花時(shí)間在賽馬場(chǎng)上學(xué)習(xí)來(lái)學(xué)習(xí)“猜頭馬”。他說(shuō)他最近“離開(kāi)了華爾街，全職用于“猜頭馬”個(gè)人資本，同時(shí)分配于賽馬和金融證券的系統(tǒng)化交易”。他并非獨(dú)自一人。賽馬和它所提出的量化難題對(duì)于那些喜歡這種事的人來(lái)說(shuō)“真的很誘人，” Larmey說(shuō)?！暗F(xiàn)在在賽馬界，它根本沒(méi)有被推銷(xiāo)成那樣?，F(xiàn)在，一切都是關(guān)于時(shí)尚和酷炫的，穿著時(shí)髦的帽子和西裝去賽馬場(chǎng)，進(jìn)行愚蠢的‘猜頭馬’?！?/p>

I exchanged messages with a current computer player, one from the modern school, who agreed to talk anonymously. He was described to me by an industry insider as a “fucking genius guy”. He studied applied maths and finance and worked as a hedge fund quant. He learnt how to gamble by studying poker bots and “reading obscure machine-learning papers” and, to his credit, by spending time at the racetrack. He said he left Wall Street recently “to bet my personal capital full-time, split between horseracing and systematic trading of financial securities”. He’s not alone. Horseracing and the quantitative puzzles it presents are “really seductive for people who like that kind of thing,” Larmey said. “But it’s not marketed that way at all. Currently, in racing, it’s all about being hip and cool and going to the races in your fancy hat and your suit and making stupid bets.”

然而，如果一般公眾在賽馬場(chǎng)上一直處于劣勢(shì)地位，他們就會(huì)停止來(lái)到賽場(chǎng)，賽馬運(yùn)動(dòng)也將失去支持。智囊團(tuán)主任Cummings說(shuō)：“這在我們與賽馬組織、馬主團(tuán)體、賽場(chǎng)經(jīng)營(yíng)者的私人對(duì)話中經(jīng)常被提及，比如‘你們對(duì)此有何行動(dòng)？’”?賽馬業(yè)可以采取一些手段來(lái)限制聯(lián)合“馬迷”團(tuán)體的行為。例如，賽場(chǎng)可以在比賽開(kāi)始前幾分鐘停止聯(lián)合“馬迷”團(tuán)體的“猜頭馬”’。有些賽場(chǎng)也限制了聯(lián)合“馬迷”團(tuán)體的回扣金額。

Still, if the general public consistently gets creamed at the track, they’ll stop coming to the track, and there’ll be no tracks. “It comes up a lot in our private conversations with racing organisations, horsemen’s groups, track operators, like, ‘What are you doing about this?’” Cummings, the think-tank director, said. There are levers the industry can pull to rein in the syndicates. Tracks can, and some have, cut off CAWs’ bets a few minutes before the beginning of the race, for example. Others have limited the size of CAW rebates.

還有一個(gè)限制就是CAWs本身。如果它們變得太大，賽馬運(yùn)動(dòng)就只是算法對(duì)抗算法?！懊總€(gè)人都意識(shí)到我們必須在這里達(dá)成平衡，”Elite Turf Club總裁Daruty說(shuō)。“為了確保長(zhǎng)期成功，這對(duì)每個(gè)人都有好處。”

There is another limit: the CAWs themselves. If they get too big, the sport will be just algorithms betting against algorithms. “Everybody realises we’ve got to have equilibrium here,” said Daruty, the Elite Turf Club president. “It’s got to be good for everyone to make sure this succeeds in the long run.”

克基弗（McKeever）給了我使用EquinEdge的權(quán)限，一晚上我在公寓里使用了這個(gè)軟件。我還在一個(gè)“猜頭馬”網(wǎng)站上存入了100美元，并打開(kāi)了一個(gè)全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)的現(xiàn)場(chǎng)比賽多播。我打算按照EquinEdge的建議來(lái)“猜頭馬。我首先在西弗吉尼亞州查爾斯敦（Charles Town）開(kāi)始，一匹名叫Change The World的栗毛小馬讓我中了TRIFECTA。那真是太容易了！我又跑到明尼蘇達(dá)州坎特伯雷公園（Canterbury Park），一匹名叫Ruby's Red Devil的閹馬讓我中了EXACTA?；氐讲闋査苟?，F(xiàn)ull Moon Lover的表現(xiàn)也非常出色。在比賽結(jié)束前，我又飛速趕往德克薩斯州的Retama公園（Retama Park），Electric Cartel同樣也幫我賺到了不少。

McKeever gave me access to EquinEdge, and I fired it up one night in my apartment. I also deposited $100 on a betting site and pulled up a multicast of live races around the country. I intended to follow EquinEdge’s suggestions to make my wagers. I began in Charles Town, West Virginia, where a chestnut filly named Change The World led me to a trifecta. That was easy! I hopped north to Canterbury Park, in Minnesota, where a gelding called Ruby’s Red Devil won me an exacta. Back over in Charles Town, Full Moon Lover paid off handsomely at the top of my ticket. And just before the day’s racing was done, I sped down to Retama Park, in Texas, where Electric Cartel did the same.

我已經(jīng)連續(xù)大賺四次，而且在不到半小時(shí)的時(shí)間里翻倍了。我保持著非常安靜和靜止的狀態(tài)，感覺(jué)就像我發(fā)現(xiàn)了神秘的真相一樣。這感覺(jué)就像我想象中的頓悟式宗教體驗(yàn)。

I’d cashed four juicy tickets in a row and, within less than half an hour, doubled my money. I remained very quiet and still; it felt like I had discovered The Secret Truth. It felt like what I imagine an epiphanic religious experience feels like.

第二個(gè)晚上就很不一樣了。一次又一次冷門(mén)，全都在我的關(guān)注范圍或算法范疇之外，最終都在最后直道的時(shí)候跑輸了。有一次，我連續(xù)輸了三場(chǎng)比賽，還都是在終點(diǎn)計(jì)時(shí)(photo finish)的時(shí)候輸了。我的盈利迅速消失，我慘了。上帝已死。

The next night was different. Longshot after longshot, none of them on my radar or the algorithm’s, pulled away down the stretch. At one point, I lost three consecutive races on photo finishes. My winnings evaporated and I went bust. God is dead.

這并不是我第一次面臨信仰危機(jī)。幾天后，在佛羅里達(dá)的Gulfstream賽場(chǎng)，我的口袋越來(lái)越空。我不確定是要?dú)w咎于技術(shù)還是我的故事敘述。我和麥克弗休息了一下，坐下來(lái)吃了一頓芝士漢堡。我們就在看臺(tái)旁邊，可以看到每場(chǎng)比賽前馬匹展示的亮相圈。我問(wèn)麥克弗他對(duì)CAW玩家有什么看法，這些機(jī)構(gòu)就像是他的客戶(hù)與大衛(wèi)打戰(zhàn)的巨人?！斑@些大的機(jī)構(gòu)，他們?cè)谫嶅X(qián)，大量的錢(qián)，”麥克弗說(shuō)，“但是CAW玩家因?yàn)樗麄兺刈永镒⑷氪罅康馁Y金而不會(huì)離開(kāi)。如果沒(méi)有他們，賽馬運(yùn)動(dòng)就不會(huì)存在了。那么小人物如何有機(jī)會(huì)呢？嗯，他需要這些算法。他需要指標(biāo)來(lái)對(duì)抗這些復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)，這樣才有半個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)贏得勝利?！?/p>

It wouldn’t be the only time I’d faced a crisis of faith. A few days later, down in Florida at Gulfstream, my pockets were becoming lighter still. I wasn’t sure whether to blame the tech or my storytelling. McKeever and I took a break and sat down for a cheeseburger lunch. We were within sight of the parade ring, where the horses are exhibited before each race. I asked McKeever what he thought of the CAW players, the Goliaths to his customers’ Davids. “These big ones, they’re printing money, printing,” McKeever said. “But the CAW players aren’t going anywhere because they’re putting so much money into the pools. If it wasn’t for that, horseracing would be done. So how does the little guy have a chance? Well, he needs these algorithms. He needs the metrics to have a half a chance to win against these sophisticated systems.”

麥克弗對(duì)賽馬運(yùn)動(dòng)的迷戀與我開(kāi)始時(shí)相似，年輕時(shí)他在當(dāng)?shù)刭悎?chǎng)Fairplex（現(xiàn)已關(guān)閉）開(kāi)始了他的賽馬生涯，位于加利福尼亞州波莫納市。他的朋友在一位名叫梅爾文?斯圖特（Melvin Stute）的著名馬練馬師那里工作，斯圖特在Fairplex賽場(chǎng)占據(jù)了主導(dǎo)地位。麥克弗在兩匹斯圖特訓(xùn)練的馬上投入，贏得了200美元。“那是一大筆錢(qián)，”他告訴我，“我只記得感覺(jué)到一種壓倒性的感覺(jué)，像是興奮，像是很有趣。我當(dāng)時(shí)有點(diǎn)害羞，沒(méi)有現(xiàn)在這么外向。我只記得感覺(jué)到一種能量和感覺(jué)，以前從未有過(guò)?！?/p>

McKeever’s fascination with the game began much as mine had, as a young man at his local track, the now defunct Fairplex in Pomona, California. His friend worked for a famous horse trainer named Melvin Stute, who dominated Fairplex. McKeever bet an exacta on two Stute horses and won $200. “That was a crapload of money,” he told me. “I just remember feeling this overwhelming sensation, like excitement, like it was fun. I was kind of shy. I wasn’t as outgoing as I am now. And I just remember feeling a sensation and energy that I had never felt before.”

McKeever除了從事供應(yīng)航空工業(yè)金屬的公司業(yè)務(wù)之外，他的熱情是賽馬運(yùn)動(dòng)。2015年，他最終在賽馬網(wǎng)絡(luò)TVG擔(dān)任了一個(gè)鏡頭前的工作。他現(xiàn)在是這項(xiàng)運(yùn)動(dòng)的積極倡導(dǎo)者和傳道者。他于2018年推出了EquinEdge，提供每月50美元的訂閱或每日6美元的服務(wù)。McKeever堅(jiān)定地奉行“授人以漁”的教學(xué)理念。他教授評(píng)磅，并每個(gè)周末在YouTube上免費(fèi)直播“猜頭馬”。“本質(zhì)上來(lái)說(shuō)，我在教你如何閱讀一種外語(yǔ)”他說(shuō)。他不希望或指望他的門(mén)徒盲目地跟隨AI的建議。

McKeever’s other professional life is running a company that supplies metals to the aerospace industry, but horseracing is what animates him. He eventually got a gig on camera at TVG, a horseracing network, in 2015. He is now an outspoken advocate and evangelist of the sport. He launched EquinEdge, which offers monthly subscriptions starting at $50 or day passes for $6, in 2018. McKeever is solidly in the teach-a-man-to-fish school. He teaches handicapping classes and hosts a horse-betting livestream each weekend, free to watch on YouTube. “I’m trying to teach you how to read a foreign language, essentially,” he said. And he doesn’t expect or want his acolytes to follow the AI blindly.

我最近花了一個(gè)下午在麥克弗的位于勞德代爾堡的頂層公寓，觀看他的直播。他從一間備用臥室里播出比賽，房間里掛著20世紀(jì)70年代冠軍馬「秘書(shū)處」(Secretariat)的海報(bào)。在比賽間隙，他調(diào)整自己的算法，并加入自己的人類(lèi)智慧。值得贊揚(yáng)的是，麥克弗將真實(shí)的投入與他和他的系統(tǒng)的選擇放在一起。他的觀眾經(jīng)常跟隨他的選擇，人類(lèi)聚集在機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)算法周?chē)?，就像我們的祖先圍繞著篝火聚集一樣。

I spent a recent afternoon at McKeever’s penthouse condo in Fort Lauderdale during his broadcast. He broadcasts from a spare bedroom beneath a poster of the champion 1970s horse Secretariat. Between the racing, he fiddles with his algorithms and mixes in his own human wisdom. And to McKeever’s credit, he puts his money where his mouth is, placing real bets alongside his and his system’s picks. His viewers often follow along, a club of humans gathering around a machine-learning algorithm the way our ancestors gathered around a fire.

他觀眾的士氣感染力很強(qiáng)。每當(dāng)麥克弗贏得一注“猜頭馬”時(shí)，聊天室里就會(huì)響起“BOOM”的合唱聲。這個(gè)場(chǎng)景讓我想起了國(guó)際象棋中正在經(jīng)歷著一次驚人的繁榮的流媒體教育社區(qū)。?“EquinEdge的目的是幫助人們過(guò)上更有生活的日子，幫助他們更享受賽馬的評(píng)，吸引新人進(jìn)入這項(xiàng)運(yùn)動(dòng)，”麥克弗說(shuō)。

His viewers’ esprit de corps was contagious. A chorus of “BOOM” filled the chat whenever McKeever won a bet. The scene reminded me of burgeoning streaming-meets-education communities in chess, which is undergoing a remarkable boom of its own. “What EquinEdge is supposed to do is help people have a life,” McKeever said, “help them enjoy horseracing handicapping more and get new people to the game.”

然而，這場(chǎng)節(jié)目一開(kāi)始并不順利。“猜頭馬”接連輸?shù)?，為它們提供的詳?xì)實(shí)證案例全部落空。每次失敗后，麥克弗迅速在“猜頭馬”網(wǎng)站上再存入1000美元并重新嘗試。我擔(dān)心我正在目睹一場(chǎng)崩潰。但到了最后，一張高額的EXACTA投入勝出了。麥克維爾和他的觀眾們很可能都賺了點(diǎn)小錢(qián)。麥克弗看起來(lái)毫不在意，帶著我去了他最喜歡的雪茄酒吧，我們喝了幾杯蘇格蘭威士忌。

This show, however, did not start well. Bet after bet came up short, the detailed empirical cases that had been made for them all for nought. After each loss, McKeever quickly deposited another $1,000 on a betting site and tried again. I worried that I was witnessing a meltdown. But at the very end of the day, a rich exacta came home. McKeever, and presumably many of his viewers, turned a small profit. McKeever, seemingly no worse for wear, took me to his favourite cigar bar where we had a few Scotches.

當(dāng)我們走出去時(shí)，麥克弗停下來(lái)抓住了我的手臂?！拔彝耆偭?，”他說(shuō)。“你認(rèn)為我瘋了嗎？”隨后是在潮濕的佛羅里達(dá)人行道上進(jìn)行的20分鐘談話，大部分內(nèi)容都是麥基弗擔(dān)心EquinEdge讓他離開(kāi)家人的時(shí)間太久，他認(rèn)為這樣可行嗎，他認(rèn)為自己瘋了嗎？最終，我向他保證，我并不認(rèn)為他瘋了。他或許是個(gè)狂想者(Quixotic)。

As we walked out, McKeever stopped and grabbed my arm. “I’m totally fucking crazy,” he said. “Do you think I’m crazy?” What ensued was a 20-minute conversation on a muggy Florida sidewalk, mostly consisting of McKeever worrying about the amount of time that EquinEdge took him away from his family, and what did I think of that, and would it work, and did I think he was crazy? I eventually assured him that I didn’t think he was crazy. Quixotic, perhaps.

我第二天獨(dú)自回到了Gulfstream。當(dāng)天下著雨，賽道潮濕，使得讓分析變得更加困難。無(wú)論何時(shí)，賽馬都是個(gè)變幻莫測(cè)的游戲。正是在這個(gè)賽道上，Beyer曾因?yàn)橐淮尾还呐袥Q導(dǎo)致他鐘愛(ài)的小母馬被取消比賽資格，他憤怒地用拳頭給墻砸了個(gè)洞(punched a hole in a wall)。

I went back to Gulfstream alone the next day. It was raining, and a wet track makes handicapping even more difficult. Horseracing is a fickle game at the best of times. It was at this track that Beyer once punched a hole in a wall in anger following an unjust ruling that disqualified his favoured filly.

當(dāng)我盯著雨水打在泥地上的水坑時(shí)，我想象著CAW團(tuán)隊(duì)在他們的高科技交易大廳里，盯著賽馬彭博終端，當(dāng)馬匹進(jìn)入閘箱時(shí)，他們的算法以百萬(wàn)計(jì)流入Gulfstream賽場(chǎng)。我坐在一個(gè)便宜的酒吧里，可以看到終點(diǎn)線。我關(guān)閉了AI應(yīng)用，收起了手機(jī)，打開(kāi)了《每日賽馬報(bào)》。我在邊角處仔細(xì)做筆記。我試圖想象每場(chǎng)比賽，講述它的故事，找到每個(gè)節(jié)目頁(yè)面上的詩(shī)意，就像我祖父教給我的那樣。

As I stared at the rain pelting puddles in the dirt, I imagined the CAW teams on their high-tech trading floors, staring at equine Bloomberg terminals, their algorithmic millions flowing into Gulfstream as the horses loaded into the gate. I sat down at a bar with cheap drinks and a view of the finish line. I closed the AI app, put away my phone and cracked open the Daily Racing Form. I took careful notes in the margins. I was trying to picture each race, to tell its story, to find the poetry on every page of the programme, as my grandfather had taught me.

一個(gè)老人坐在我旁邊，對(duì)我露出了一個(gè)巨大的微笑?！澳憧雌饋?lái)真的知道你在做什么，”他說(shuō)。

An old man sat down next to me and gave me an enormous grin. “You really look like you know what you’re doing,” he said.

我道歉道：“我恐怕一點(diǎn)也不知道?！?/p>

I apologised: “I’m afraid I have no idea.”

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