TED演講者：George Monbiot / 喬治· 莫比奧特

演講標(biāo)題：Can we feed ourselves without devouring the planet? / 如何避免吃垮地球？

內(nèi)容概要：Farming is the worst thing humanity has ever done to the planet, says journalist George Monbiot. What's more: the global food system could be heading toward collapse. Detailing the technological solutions we need to radically reshape food production -- from lab-grown, protein-rich foods to crops that don't require plowing -- Monbiot shares a future-focused vision of how humanity could feed itself without destroying the planet.

記者喬治· 莫比奧特認(rèn)為，農(nóng)業(yè)是人類文明對(duì)地球最糟的發(fā)明。此外，全球糧食系統(tǒng)可能走向崩潰。莫比奧特詳述，我們需要科技來徹底改變食物的生產(chǎn)方式，如實(shí)驗(yàn)室研發(fā)的富含蛋白質(zhì)的食物，或無須仰賴土壤耕種的谷物等等。他同時(shí)也分享了一個(gè)愿景：未來，人類能得以喂飽自身而不毀滅這個(gè)星球。

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【1】What's the worst thing we've ever done to the planet?

我們對(duì)地球所造成最大的傷害是什么？

【2】The answer is tough to hear and many people recoil from it because it conflicts with some of our most cherished beliefs.

答案或許讓人難以接受, 也讓許多人想回避, 因?yàn)樗c我們最珍視的信念沖突──

【3】Farming.

農(nóng)業(yè)。

【4】Farming is the greatest cause of habitat destruction, the greatest cause of wildlife loss, the world's greatest cause of extinction.

農(nóng)業(yè)是破壞生態(tài)環(huán)境的主因, 是野生動(dòng)物絕種的主要原因, 也是世界滅絕的主因。

【5】It's caused roughly 80 percent of the deforestation this century.

本世紀(jì)將近 80% 的森林砍伐是因?yàn)檗r(nóng)業(yè)。

【6】Only 29 percent of the weight of birds on Earth consists of wild species.

地球上所有的鳥類中只有 29% 是野生物種,

【7】And the rest are poultry.

其余皆是家禽。

【8】Just four percent of mammals, by weight, are wild.

按重量計(jì)算,哺乳動(dòng)物中 只有 4% 是野生動(dòng)物,

【9】36 percent is accounted for by humans, and farmed animals make up the remaining 60 percent.

36% 是人類, 剩下的 60% 則是養(yǎng)殖動(dòng)物。

【10】Yes, look, we all need food and we all need farming.

是的,我們都需要食物, 我們都需要農(nóng)業(yè)。

【11】But that shouldn't blind us to the fact that it's also among the world's foremost causes of climate breakdown, of water pollution, of air pollution.

可是我們不應(yīng)罔顧現(xiàn)實(shí), 農(nóng)業(yè)是導(dǎo)致世界氣候崩潰、 水污染和空氣污染的重大主因。

【12】But, perhaps most importantly, it's the foremost cause of land use.

而且,最重要的是, 農(nóng)業(yè)也是土地開發(fā)的首要原因。

【13】Now I've come to see land as perhaps the most important of all environmental questions.

我最終看清楚了, 土地或許是所有環(huán)境問題中最重大的。

【14】Every acre of land that we use for our own purposes is an acre that can't support wild ecosystems, such as forests and wetlands and savannahs, on which the great majority of the world's species depend.

我們每多開發(fā)一畝地, 野生生態(tài)系統(tǒng)就少一畝地, 無論是森林、濕地和熱帶草原, 世界上絕大多數(shù)物種無不賴以為生。

【15】It's our use of land which, above all, is driving the sixth great extinction of species.

講到底,土地的開發(fā)正是讓我們走向 第六次物種大滅絕的主因。

【16】Now, there are some thrilling and world-changing solutions to these great crises, and I'll be coming to those in just a minute.

目前,面對(duì)這些重大危機(jī),已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)扭轉(zhuǎn)局面的解決方案, 我等等就會(huì)談到。

【17】I mean, some of them are mind-blowing and have the potential to solve several problems at the same time.

其中一些方案很不可思議, 而且可能同時(shí)解決多個(gè)問題。

【18】But in order to understand them and the need for them, first, we need to understand the scope and direction of the global food system.

在理解這些方案及其用處之前, 我們得先弄清楚 全球糧食系統(tǒng)的規(guī)模和方向。

【19】We rail against urban sprawl, and rightly so.

我們反對(duì)城市擴(kuò)張,這點(diǎn)絕對(duì)正確。

【20】But all our homes and businesses and infrastructure occupy just one percent of the planet's land.

可是所有的住宅、企業(yè)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施 只占全球土地的百分之一。

【21】Agricultural sprawl is a far greater ecological threat.

農(nóng)業(yè)的擴(kuò)張才是更大的生態(tài)威脅,

【22】Farming occupies 38 percent of the planet's land.

因?yàn)檗r(nóng)業(yè)用地占了 全球土地的 38%。

【23】Most of the rest, incidentally, is protected areas, forests, deserts, ice and mountains.

剩下的絕大部分是保護(hù)區(qū)、 森林、沙漠、冰原和山脈。

【24】So we have this vast amount of land being occupied.

所以我們占用了那么多土地。

【25】A lot of people complain about intensive farming and the harm that it does to us and our world, and this harm is real.

許多人不滿工業(yè)化農(nóng)業(yè), 及其對(duì)人類和世界造成的危害, 而這種危害是真實(shí)存在的。

【26】But so is the harm caused by extensive farming, which means using more land to produce a given amount of food.

但粗放農(nóng)業(yè)也一樣造成危害, 因?yàn)橐_(dá)到相同的產(chǎn)量, 要使用的土地面積更大。

【27】Now, I know some of you will find this a shocking statement, but the most damaging of all farm products is pasture-fed meat, and that's because of the agricultural sprawl it causes.

我知道你們有些人會(huì)覺得 這聽起來很嚇人, 可是農(nóng)產(chǎn)品中破壞性最高的 就是放牧肉品, 原因正是來自連帶的農(nóng)業(yè)擴(kuò)張。

【28】You remember that 38 percent of land used by farming?

記得剛說的全球有 38% 的土地用在農(nóng)業(yè)嗎？

【29】Well, only 12 percent of the land is covered by crops.

其實(shí),只有 12% 的 土地上有農(nóng)作物,

【30】The remaining 26 percent is used for pasture, mostly for cattle, sheep and goats.

剩下的 26% 則用于畜牧, 大多是養(yǎng)殖牛、綿羊和山羊。

【31】Our environmental crisis is not driven by intensive farming or by extensive farming, but by a disastrous combination of the two.

我們的環(huán)境危機(jī)不是由工業(yè)化農(nóng)業(yè) 或粗放農(nóng)業(yè)造成的, 而是這兩者災(zāi)難性的結(jié)合所造成的。

【32】The problem is not the adjective - it's the noun.

問題不在于形容詞── 而是名詞。

【33】Farming itself is threatened by the environmental harm that it's contributed to, such as climate breakdown and soil depletion and the exhaustion of water supplies.

農(nóng)業(yè)本身也面臨 由其造成的環(huán)境危害的威脅, 例如氣候崩潰、 土壤貧瘠和供水枯竭等,

【34】But there could be an even greater threat to our food supplies.

但是我們的糧食供應(yīng) 可能面臨更大的威脅。

【35】It's possible to see the biggest threat that the global food system faces as the global food system.

我們可能即將目睹 全球糧食系統(tǒng)史上最大的威脅,

【36】It's beginning to look a bit like the global financial system in the approach to 2008.

我們開始看到 2008 年 全球金融體系出問題前的樣子。

【37】Now for a long time, we thought we were beating hunger.

長(zhǎng)久以來,我們以為已戰(zhàn)勝饑餓。

【38】Between the 1960s and 2014, hunger was declining fairly steadily.

從 1960 年代到 2014, 饑荒指數(shù)穩(wěn)緩下降。

【39】But then, in 2015, the trend began to turn, and the number of chronically malnourished people began rising and has continued to rise ever since.

可是,2015 年,趨勢(shì)開始轉(zhuǎn)變, 長(zhǎng)期營(yíng)養(yǎng)不良的人數(shù)開始上升, 并且一直持續(xù)增加。

【40】Astoundingly, that rise began just as world food prices were falling.

令人震驚的是,上升趨勢(shì)開始時(shí), 世界食品價(jià)格卻正下跌。

【41】So what's going on?

發(fā)生了甚么事？

【42】Well, the world food system, like global finance, is a complex system, and complex systems behave in counterintuitive ways.

世界糧食系統(tǒng)就像全球金融一樣, 是一個(gè)復(fù)雜系統(tǒng), 而復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的表現(xiàn)往往與預(yù)期相反。

【43】They're resilient under certain conditions, because there's weird self-organizing dynamics [to] stabilize them.

他們?cè)谀承l件下頗有彈性, 因?yàn)榫哂心撤N特別的 自我組織量能讓系統(tǒng)回復(fù)穩(wěn)定。

【44】But if they're pushed by an extreme amount of stress, then those same self-organizing dynamics can start transmitting shocks across the network.

但是,一旦遭受到極大的外來壓力時(shí), 那么這些自我組織量能 反而會(huì)在整個(gè)系統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中產(chǎn)生震蕩,

【45】And beyond a certain point, they can tip the whole network past its critical threshold, whereupon the system collapses, suddenly and unstoppably.

震蕩到達(dá)某個(gè)程度后, 一旦超過整個(gè)系統(tǒng)的臨界值, 后果就是突然的、無法挽回的崩潰。

【46】Now over the past few years, the crucial elements of systemic resilience that we call redundancy, modularity, circuit breakers and backup systems have been stripped out by corporate strategies.

過去幾年來, 糧食系統(tǒng)中原有的關(guān)鍵彈性要素── 冗余、模組化、保險(xiǎn)機(jī)制和備份系統(tǒng), 已經(jīng)從企業(yè)?略中被刪除。

【47】On one estimate, just four companies now control 90 percent of the global grain trade.

有項(xiàng)統(tǒng)計(jì)顯示,全球谷物貿(mào)易 有 90% 掌握在四家公司手里。

【48】Only four crops, which are wheat, rice, corn and soy, account for almost 60 percent of the calories that farmers produce.

僅僅是小麥、米、玉米 和大豆這四種作物 占農(nóng)作卡路里將近 60% 的產(chǎn)能。

【49】And the production for export of those crops has become highly concentrated in a handful of nations, including Russia and Ukraine.

而這些農(nóng)作物的生產(chǎn)外銷 高度集中在少數(shù)幾個(gè)國(guó)家, 包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭。

【50】Nations have polarized into superexporters and superimporters, and much of this trade passes through vulnerable choke points, such as the Turkish Straits and the Suez and Panama Canals.

世界各國(guó)已經(jīng)兩極化, 變成超級(jí)出超國(guó)或超級(jí)入超國(guó), 而絕大部分的貿(mào)易得經(jīng)過 脆弱的咽喉要道, 例如土耳其海峽、蘇伊士運(yùn)河 和巴拿馬運(yùn)河。

【51】Had the blockage of the Suez Canal in 2021 - by that giant container ship, you remember that - had that coincided with the closure of the Turkish Straits in 2022 by the war in Ukraine, then the food chain for hundreds of millions of people might have snapped.

你還記得蘇伊士運(yùn)河在 2021 年 被那艘巨型貨輪阻斷航道的事故？ 如果那個(gè)事件發(fā)生在 2022 年烏俄戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)開始后, 供應(yīng)全球數(shù)億人口的 糧食供給鏈可能就此斷裂。

【52】The reason why hunger is rising seems to be that, as the food system has lost its resilience, more and more contagious shocks are being transmitted across it.

饑餓指數(shù)上升的原因似乎是 糧食系統(tǒng)失去彈性, 越來越多的震蕩在系統(tǒng)中波動(dòng)傳播。

【53】Now, we in the rich nations, we scarcely noticed the shocks being caused by speculative surges and export bans and bottlenecking and other issues like that, until 2020, when COVID began to make us more aware of some of the issues we were facing.

身處富裕國(guó)家的我們 幾乎沒有注意到投機(jī)激增、 出口禁令、運(yùn)輸瓶頸 等等問題所造成的沖擊, 直到 2020 年,出現(xiàn)新冠肺炎, 我們才驚覺人類所面臨的某些問題。

【54】But those shocks, for years, have been hitting the poorer nations with weak currencies, which stand at the end of the queue.

但那些沖擊多年以來 始終不斷地打擊貧窮國(guó)家, 他們的貨幣排名全球貨幣的末端。

【55】And what they saw is that local food prices can surge even as global prices remain low.

他們發(fā)現(xiàn)即使全球價(jià)格維持在低點(diǎn), 自己國(guó)內(nèi)的糧食價(jià)格卻能飆升。

【56】Now, these problems are likely only to become worse as the system becomes less stable and is possibly approaching a critical threshold.

現(xiàn)在這些狀況看起來只會(huì)變得更糟, 因?yàn)殡S著系統(tǒng)變得更不穩(wěn)定, 更可能趨近臨界值。

【57】Governments prevented the banks from collapsing by bailing them out with future money.

政府為了防止銀行倒閉, 印鈔、動(dòng)用未來準(zhǔn)備金為銀行紓困,

【58】But you can't bail out the food system with future food.

可是糧食系統(tǒng)無法提前用 尚未生產(chǎn)的糧食來挽救。

【59】So we face two enormous issues here.

以上就是我們面臨的兩個(gè)重大議題:

【60】One, the environmental harm caused by the food system, and secondly, the possibility that the system itself could collapse.

一是糧食系統(tǒng)造成的環(huán)境危害, 二是糧食系統(tǒng)本身崩潰的可能性。

【61】Might there be a solution, a solution to both these problems?

是否有甚么解決方案 能同時(shí)解決這兩個(gè)問題？

【62】Can we find a way of feeding the world without devouring the planet?

有沒有辦法喂飽全世界, 卻不吃垮地球？

【63】Well, there are some fascinating new techniques for growing crops being developed by farmers and scientists.

有的,現(xiàn)在有些農(nóng)作物種植的新技術(shù) 正由農(nóng)民和科學(xué)家們共同投入研發(fā)。

【64】I'm especially interested in the potential of perennial grain crops, which are being developed in particular by The Land Institute in Salina, Kansas.

我最感興趣的是 多年生谷物的發(fā)展?jié)摿? 堪薩斯州薩利納的土地研究所 正潛心開發(fā)這類作物。

【65】If we can grow grain on plants that stay in the soil from year to year, we can greatly reduce the damage to the soil caused by plowing and the amount of pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers, irrigation required to establish new crops.

如果有辦法只栽種一次, 卻能年復(fù)一年地收割, 我們就能大幅減少 因耕作而產(chǎn)生的對(duì)土壤的破壞, 也減少殺蟲劑、除草劑、肥料用量, 及新作物所需的灌溉用水。

【66】Other farmers are finding really amazing ways of boosting their yields without using either fertilizers or manure.

還有些農(nóng)民正在想辦法提高產(chǎn)量, 卻不需使用化肥或糞肥等方法。

【67】Crucial as all these developments are, they can only be partial solutions to the issues we face.

所有這類的研發(fā)都很關(guān)鍵, 卻只能解決部份我們所面臨的問題。

【68】Because perhaps our most urgent task is replacing the protein-rich and fat-rich foods that we currently obtain from animals and from crops like soy and oil palm.

因?yàn)?或許最緊迫的任務(wù) 是找到富含蛋白質(zhì)和脂肪的替代品, 取代目前的來源── 動(dòng)物、大豆、棕櫚油等作物。

【69】If the biggest problem that farming is causing is the amount of land it uses, then perhaps the biggest environmental solution is shifting food production off the land and into the factory.

如果農(nóng)業(yè)所造成的最大問題 來自于土地的使用量, 那么解決環(huán)境問題的最好方案可能是 將糧食的生產(chǎn)從土地轉(zhuǎn)移到工廠。

【70】Now, I realize that's another shocking statement.

嗯,我知道這個(gè)說法有點(diǎn)駭人聽聞。

【71】Many people hate the idea of food being produced in factories, forgetting, somewhat, that almost all the food we eat passes through a factory at some point in its production.

許多人厭惡工業(yè)化生產(chǎn)食物的想法, 卻忘記了有絕大部分我們所消耗的食物 都在某個(gè)階段中經(jīng)過工廠的制程。

【72】In fact, the great majority of the animals we eat are factory farmed.

事實(shí)上,我們所吃的絕大多數(shù) 動(dòng)物肉類都是工廠養(yǎng)殖的。

【73】Well, in Helsinki, Finland, I visited a company called Solar Foods, which is using a technique called precision fermentation to create a protein-rich flour from a soil bacterium that eats hydrogen.

我參觀過位于芬蘭 赫爾辛基的「陽光食物」, 該公司使用一種「精確發(fā)酵」的技術(shù), 從某種消耗氫的土壤細(xì)菌 制造出富含蛋白質(zhì)的面粉。

【74】It requires no farm products at all.

整個(gè)過程沒有用上任何農(nóng)作物。

【75】I was the first person outside the lab to eat a pancake made from this flour.

我是第一個(gè)該實(shí)驗(yàn)室招待試吃 以此面粉做成的鬆餅的人。

【76】A small flip for man.

可以說這是人類的一個(gè)小翻轉(zhuǎn)？

【77】Amazingly, this pancake tasted just like a pancake.

神奇的是,這個(gè)鬆餅 吃起來就像一般的鬆餅。

【78】Rich and mellow and filling.

香濃、醇厚、有飽足感。

【79】But this isn't just about making pancakes.

可是重點(diǎn)不在于它能拿來做鬆餅。

【80】These flours, which have a protein content of about 65 percent, could form the basis of much better alternatives - cheaper alternatives, healthier alternatives -- to the animal products and some of the plants, like soy and coconut and oil palm, that we currently eat.

因?yàn)槟切┟娣鄣?蛋白質(zhì)含量約 65%, 能成為更好的成份替代品── 因?yàn)樗阋?、更健康─?與其他目前的肉類和植物相比── 如大豆、椰子和棕櫚油等。

【81】In fact, they could trigger a whole new cuisine, a shift as profound as the neolithic revolution.

事實(shí)上,它們也能發(fā)展出全新的美食, 帶來新石器時(shí)代革命一樣深刻的轉(zhuǎn)變。

【82】Most importantly, they require just a tiny fraction of the land and a tiny amount of the water and fertilizer needed to raise either crops or animals.

最重要的是, 它們只需要極少的土地, 以及少量的水和肥料── 與農(nóng)作物或畜牧相比的話。

【83】And this is why I see precision fermentation as perhaps the most important environmental technology ever developed.

這就是為什么我認(rèn)為精確發(fā)酵 也許是有史以來最重要的環(huán)保科技,

【84】It could be all that stands between us and environmental collapse.

或許也是挽救人類 避免環(huán)境崩潰的唯一方法。

【85】Precision fermentation is a refined form of brewing, which was first developed by NASA in the 1960s.

精密發(fā)酵就像是一種精釀, 最早是由美國(guó)太空總署 于 1960 年代開發(fā)。

【86】But it's not rocket science.

但其實(shí)不是多么高深,

【87】It actually requires no major technological breakthrough.

也不需要重大的創(chuàng)新技術(shù)。

【88】The bacteria being multiplied by Solar Foods use hydrogen in similar ways to how plants use sunlight.

「陽光食物」所繁殖的細(xì)菌 與氫結(jié)合的方式 在很多方面就很類似 植物與陽光的光合作用。

【89】But this process, powered ultimately by solar energy - using the electricity to make the hydrogen - is far more efficient than photosynthesis.

但整個(gè)過程藉由太陽能去運(yùn)作, 同時(shí)利用電力去制造氫氣── 遠(yuǎn)比光合作用有效多了。

【90】Are you horrified by the idea of eating bacteria?

你想到吃細(xì)菌就害怕嗎？

【91】I'm sure some of you are.

我相信有些人會(huì)。

【92】Well, if so, I've got bad news for you.

如果是的話,讓我告訴你,

【93】You eat them with every meal.

其實(shí)你所吃的每頓飯都有細(xì)菌。

【94】In fact, some of our food, like cheese and yogurt, is deliberately inoculated with live bacteria.

因?yàn)橛行┦澄?如起司、優(yōu)格, 必須得借助活菌才能作出來。

【95】If you're still disgusted by the idea of eating microbes, could I invite you to visit a factory pig or factory chicken farm?

如果你想到食用微生物就惡心的話, 歡迎你去參觀工廠, 無論是養(yǎng)豬場(chǎng)或養(yǎng)雞場(chǎng),

【96】And the slaughterhouse, which kills and processes the animals that it raises?

甚至是屠宰場(chǎng), 那些養(yǎng)殖、屠殺、處理動(dòng)物的地方。

【97】That's what disgusting looks like.

那才是真的惡心。

【98】So we have this extraordinary potential.

未來真的潛力非凡,

【99】If we can replace the protein which we currently obtain from the flesh and secretions of animals with protein from single-celled organisms, we could release vast tracts of the planet from our impacts, restoring forests and salt marshes and freshwater marshes and mangroves, and steppes and savannahs and kelp forests and seafloors.

如果我們能將 目前從動(dòng)物產(chǎn)出的肉類和奶類的蛋白質(zhì), 改以單細(xì)胞生物的蛋白質(zhì)取代, 就能讓將人類占用的 大片區(qū)域還給地球, 讓森林、鹽沼、淡水沼澤、紅樹林、 草原、熱帶草原、甚至 海帶森林和海底回復(fù)原貌。

【100】This great rewilding could stop the sixth great extinction in its tracks.

如此大規(guī)模的「還野」 或可避免第六次大滅絕的發(fā)生。

【101】It could save Earth's systems, it could draw down vast amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

或許也能拯救地球的生態(tài), 將大氣中的二氧化碳抽回。

【102】Moreover, it could be the only chance some countries have of breaking their dangerous dependency on exports from distant places.

此外,這也可能是某些國(guó)家擺脫 從遙遠(yuǎn)的他國(guó)進(jìn)口依賴的唯一機(jī)會(huì)。

【103】A lot of the countries which are most at risk of mass starvation, they don't have enough fertile land and water to produce the food they need from farming, but they have plenty of something else - sunlight, which is what you need to sustain food production based on hydrogen.

許多面臨大規(guī)模饑荒的國(guó)家 沒有足夠肥沃的土地和灌溉用水 來生產(chǎn)所需的農(nóng)作物, 但他們有許多其他資源── 例如,陽光, 倚靠氫氣的糧食生產(chǎn)少了陽光就不行。

【104】Now, these technologies are yet to be fully commercialized, but companies like Solar Foods have applied for permission to release their products onto the market.

現(xiàn)在,這些技術(shù)尚未完全商業(yè)化, 但是已經(jīng)有類似「陽光食物」的公司 申請(qǐng)將他們的產(chǎn)品上市。

【105】I hope that when they do, innovative chefs will step up to design the new diet, the new cuisine that the technology promises.

我希望那天到來時(shí), 會(huì)有許多廚師加入陣營(yíng),設(shè)計(jì)新食譜, 創(chuàng)造出科技性的全新美食。

【106】And I would love to see a microbial brewery in every town, run by small local companies, producing protein-rich foods tailored to local markets.

我也想看到每個(gè)城鎮(zhèn)都有 自己的微生物精釀廠, 由當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng), 生產(chǎn)迎合當(dāng)?shù)厥袌?chǎng)口味、 富含蛋白質(zhì)的食品。

【107】For that to happen, we have to stop the disastrous corporate concentration we've seen in the rest of the food chain.

為此, 我們必須阻止糧食供應(yīng)鏈 被少數(shù)企業(yè)控制的災(zāi)難。

【108】Intellectual property rights should be weak, and antitrust laws should be strong.

知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)應(yīng)該被削弱, 反壟斷法應(yīng)該被加強(qiáng)。

【109】We have the possibility here of solving two of our great existential crises with the same strategy.

我們現(xiàn)在有機(jī)會(huì) 用一個(gè)策略解決兩個(gè)重大的生存危機(jī)。

【110】By shifting the production of protein-rich food off the farm, and into the factory, we could help solve these great predicaments of hunger and extinction.

藉由將蛋白質(zhì)食物的生產(chǎn) 從農(nóng)場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)移到工廠, 我們有機(jī)會(huì)同時(shí)解決 饑餓和物種滅絕的兩大困境。

【111】Thank you.

謝謝。