The Review of Economic Studies ?2023年第1期

Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023

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——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨

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1.Immigration and Redistribution

移民與再分配

Alberto Alesina,?Armando Miano,?Stefanie Stantcheva

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 1–39,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac011

Does immigration change support for redistribution? We design and conduct large-scale surveys and experiments in six countries to investigate how people perceive immigrants and how these perceptions influence their support for redistribution. We find striking misperceptions about the number and characteristics of immigrants. In all countries, respondents greatly overestimate the total number of immigrants, think immigrants are culturally and religiously more distant from them, and economically weaker—less educated, more unemployed, and more reliant on and favoured by government transfers—than they actually are. In the experimental part of our article, we show that simply making respondents think about immigration before asking questions about redistribution makes them support less redistribution, including actual donations to charities. The perception that immigrants are economically weaker and more likely to take advantage of the welfare system is strongly correlated with lower support for redistribution, much more so than the perceived cultural distance or the perceived share of immigrants. These findings are confirmed by further experimental evidence. Information about the true shares and origins of immigrants does not change support for redistribution. An anecdote about a “hard-working” immigrant has somewhat stronger effects but is unable to counteract the negative priming effect of making people think about immigration. Our results further suggest that narratives shape people’s views on immigration more deeply than hard facts.

移民會改變對再分配的支持嗎?我們在六個國家設(shè)計并進行了大規(guī)模的調(diào)查和實驗，以調(diào)查人們?nèi)绾慰创泼?，以及這些看法如何影響他們對再分配的支持。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，人們對移民的數(shù)量和特征存在明顯的誤解。在所有國家，受訪者都大大高估了移民的總數(shù)，認為移民在文化和宗教上離他們更遙遠，經(jīng)濟上更弱——受教育程度更低，失業(yè)更多，更依賴政府轉(zhuǎn)移支付，也更受政府轉(zhuǎn)移支付的青睞——比實際情況要差。在我們文章的實驗部分中，我們表明，在詢問關(guān)于再分配的問題之前，簡單地讓受訪者思考移民問題會讓他們支持更少的再分配，包括對慈善機構(gòu)的實際捐款。認為移民在經(jīng)濟上較弱，更有可能利用福利制度的觀點，與對再分配的支持程度較低有很強的相關(guān)性，其相關(guān)性遠遠高于人們認為的文化距離或移民所占比例。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)被進一步的實驗證據(jù)所證實。關(guān)于移民的真實份額和來源的信息不會改變對再分配的支持。一個關(guān)于“努力工作”的移民的軼事在某種程度上有更強的影響，但無法抵消讓人們思考移民的負面啟動效應(yīng)。我們的研究結(jié)果進一步表明，敘事比硬事實更能深刻地塑造人們對移民的看法。

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2.Measuring Belief-dependent Preferences without Data on Beliefs

在沒有信念數(shù)據(jù)的情況下測量信念依賴偏好

Charles Bellemare,?Alexander Sebald

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 40–64,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac023

We derive bounds on the causal effect of belief-dependent preferences (reciprocity and guilt aversion) on choices in sequential two-player games without data on the (higher-order) beliefs of players. We show how informative bounds can be derived by exploiting a specific invariance property common to those preferences. We illustrate our approach by analysing data from an experiment conducted in Denmark. Our approach produces tight bounds on the causal effect of reciprocity in the games we consider. These bounds suggest there exists significant reciprocity in our population—a result also substantiated by the participants’ answers to a post-experimental questionnaire. On the other hand, our approach yields high implausible estimates of guilt aversion—participants would be willing, in some games, to pay at least three Danish crowns (DKK) to avoid letting others down by one DKK. We contrast our estimated bounds with point estimates obtained using data on stated higher-order beliefs, keeping all other aspects of the model unchanged. We find that point estimates fall within our estimated bounds, suggesting that elicited higher-order belief data in our experiment is weakly (if at all) affected by various reporting biases.

在沒有參與者(高階)信念數(shù)據(jù)的情況下，我們推導(dǎo)了信念依賴偏好(互惠和內(nèi)疚厭惡)對連續(xù)二人博弈選擇的因果影響的邊界。我們將展示如何通過利用這些首選項共同的特定不變屬性來派生信息邊界。我們通過分析在丹麥進行的一項實驗的數(shù)據(jù)來說明我們的方法。在我們考慮的博弈中，我們的方法對互惠的因果效應(yīng)產(chǎn)生了嚴格的限制。這些界限表明，在我們的人群中存在著顯著的互惠關(guān)系——參與者對實驗后問卷的回答也證實了這一結(jié)果。另一方面，我們的方法對內(nèi)疚厭惡產(chǎn)生了高得難以置信的估計——在一些游戲中，參與者愿意支付至少3個丹麥克朗(DKK)，以避免讓其他人失望1個DKK。我們將我們的估計界與使用指定的高階信念數(shù)據(jù)獲得的點估計進行對比，保持模型的所有其他方面不變。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)點估計落在我們的估計范圍內(nèi)，這表明在我們的實驗中引出的高階信念數(shù)據(jù)受到各種報告偏差的影響很弱(如果有的話)。

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3.What is a Good School, and Can Parents Tell? Evidence on the Multidimensionality of School Output?

什么是好學校，家長能分辨出來嗎?學校產(chǎn)出多維度的證據(jù)

Diether W Beuermann,?C Kirabo Jackson,?Laia Navarro-Sola,?Francisco Pardo

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 65–101,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac025

To explore whether schools’ causal impacts on test scores measure their overall impact on students, we exploit plausibly exogenous school assignments and data from Trinidad and Tobago to estimate the causal impacts of individual schools on several outcomes. Schools’ impacts on high-stakes tests are weakly related to impacts on important outcomes such as arrests, dropout, teen motherhood, and formal labour market participation. To examine if parents’ school preferences are related to these causal impacts, we link them to parents’ ranked lists of schools and employ discrete-choice models to infer preferences for schools. Parents choose schools that improve high-stakes tests even conditional on peer quality and average outcomes. Parents also choose schools that reduce criminality and teen motherhood and increase labour market participation. School choices among parents of low-achieving students are relatively more strongly related to schools’ impacts on non-test-score outcomes, while the opposite is true for parents of high-achieving students. These results suggest that evaluations based solely on test scores may be misleading about the benefits of school choice (particularly for low-achieving students), and education interventions more broadly.

為了探究學校對考試成績的因果影響是否衡量了其對學生的整體影響，我們利用了似是而非的學校作業(yè)和來自特立尼達和多巴哥的數(shù)據(jù)來估計個別學校對幾種結(jié)果的因果影響。學校對高風險考試的影響與對重要結(jié)果的影響(如被捕、輟學、青少年為人母和正式參與勞動力市場)的影響關(guān)系不大。為了檢驗父母的學校偏好是否與這些因果影響有關(guān)，我們將它們與父母的學校排名列表聯(lián)系起來，并使用離散選擇模型來推斷對學校的偏好。家長們選擇那些能提高高風險考試成績的學校，即使是以同齡人的質(zhì)量和平均成績?yōu)闂l件。家長們還會選擇那些減少犯罪和青少年孕產(chǎn)并提高勞動力市場參與度的學校。低成就學生家長的學校選擇與學校對非考試成績的影響的相關(guān)性相對更強，而高成就學生家長的情況則相反。這些結(jié)果表明，僅僅基于考試分數(shù)的評估可能會誤導(dǎo)人們對學校選擇的好處(特別是對成績較低的學生)，以及更廣泛的教育干預(yù)。

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4.Are Marriage-Related Taxes and Social Security Benefits Holding Back Female Labour Supply?

與婚姻有關(guān)的稅收和社會保障福利是否阻礙了女性勞動力的供應(yīng)?

Margherita Borella,?Mariacristina De Nardi,?Fang Yang

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 102–131,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac018

In the US, both taxes and old-age social security benefits depend on one’s marital status and tend to reduce the labour supply of the secondary earner. To what extent are these provisions holding back the female labour supply? We estimate a rich dynamic life-cycle model of labour supply and savings for couples and singles using the Method of Simulated Moments for the 1945 and 1955 birth cohorts. Our model matches well the life-cycle profiles of labour market participation, hours, and savings for married and single people, and generates plausible elasticities of labour supply. It implies that eliminating these marriage-related provisions would drastically increase the participation of married women over their entire life cycle, reduce the participation of married men after age 60, and increase savings. If the resulting government surplus were used to lower income taxation, there would be large welfare gains for the vast majority of the population. These results hold for both cohorts, including the later one, which has participation similar to that of more recent generations.

在美國，稅收和老年社會保障福利都取決于一個人的婚姻狀況，這往往會減少第二收入者的勞動力供應(yīng)。這些規(guī)定在多大程度上阻礙了女性勞動力的供應(yīng)?我們利用1945年和1955年出生隊列的模擬時刻方法，估計了一對夫婦和單身人士的勞動力供應(yīng)和儲蓄的豐富動態(tài)生命周期模型。我們的模型很好地匹配了已婚和單身人士的勞動力市場參與、工時和儲蓄的生命周期特征，并產(chǎn)生了合理的勞動力供應(yīng)彈性。這意味著，取消這些與婚姻有關(guān)的規(guī)定將大大增加已婚婦女在其整個生命周期中的參與率，減少60歲以后已婚男子的參與率，并增加儲蓄。如果由此產(chǎn)生的政府盈余被用于降低所得稅，絕大多數(shù)人口將獲得巨大的福利收益。這些結(jié)果適用于兩個隊列，包括后一個隊列，它的參與與最近幾代人類似。

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5.A World Equilibrium Model of the Oil Market

石油市場的世界均衡模型

Gideon Bornstein,?Per Krusell,?Sergio Rebelo

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 132–164,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac019

We use new, comprehensive micro data on oil fields to build and estimate a structural model of the oil industry embedded in a general equilibrium model of the world economy. In the model, firms that belong to Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) act as a cartel. The remaining firms are a competitive fringe. We use the model to study the macroeconomic impact of the advent of fracking. Fracking weakens the OPEC cartel, leading to a large long-run decline in oil prices. Fracking also reduces the volatility of oil prices in the long run because fracking firms can respond more quickly to changes in oil demand.

我們利用新的、全面的油田微觀數(shù)據(jù)，建立并估計了嵌入在世界經(jīng)濟一般均衡模型中的石油工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)模型。在模型中，隸屬于石油輸出國組織(OPEC)的企業(yè)以卡特爾的形式存在。其余的公司都是有競爭力的邊緣公司。我們使用該模型來研究水力壓裂技術(shù)的出現(xiàn)對宏觀經(jīng)濟的影響。水力壓裂法削弱了石油輸出國組織(OPEC)的卡特爾地位，導(dǎo)致油價長期大幅下跌。從長遠來看，水力壓裂法還可以降低油價的波動性，因為水力壓裂公司可以更快地對石油需求的變化做出反應(yīng)。

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6.Racial Diversity and Racial Policy Preferences: The Great Migration and Civil Rights

種族多樣性和種族政策偏好:大移民和公民權(quán)利

Alvaro Calderon,?Vasiliki Fouka,?Marco Tabellini

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 165–200,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac026

Between 1940 and 1970, more than 4 million African Americans moved from the South to the North of the US, during the Second Great Migration. This same period witnessed the struggle and eventual success of the civil rights movement in ending institutionalized racial discrimination. This article shows that the Great Migration and support for civil rights are causally linked. Predicting Black inflows with a shift-share instrument, we find that the Great Migration raised support for the Democratic Party, increased Congress members’ propensity to promote civil rights legislation, and encouraged pro-civil rights activism outside the US South. We provide different pieces of evidence that support for civil rights was not confined to the Black electorate but was also shared by segments of the white population.

在1940年至1970年期間，超過400萬非洲裔美國人從美國南部遷移到美國北部，這是第二次大遷移。這一時期見證了民權(quán)運動在結(jié)束制度化種族歧視方面的斗爭和最終的成功。這篇文章表明，大移民和民權(quán)支持是有因果關(guān)系的。通過偏離-份額工具預(yù)測黑人流入，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，大移民提高了對民主黨的支持，增加了國會議員推動民權(quán)立法的傾向，并鼓勵了美國南部以外的親民權(quán)活動。我們提供了不同的證據(jù)，表明對民權(quán)的支持并不局限于黑人選民，也存在于部分白人人口中。

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7.Simple Adaptive Size-Exact Testing for Full-Vector and Subvector Inference in Moment Inequality Models

矩不等式模型中全向量和子向量推斷的簡單自適應(yīng)精確尺寸測試

Gregory Cox,?Xiaoxia Shi

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 201–228,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac015

We propose a simple test for moment inequalities that has exact size in normal models with known variance and has uniformly asymptotically exact size under asymptotic normality. The test compares the quasi-likelihood ratio statistic to a chi-squared critical value, where the degree of freedom is the rank of the inequalities that are active in finite samples. The test requires no simulation and thus is computationally fast and especially suitable for constructing confidence sets for parameters by test inversion. It uses no tuning parameter for moment selection and yet still adapts to the slackness of the moment inequalities. Furthermore, we show how the test can be easily adapted to inference on subvectors in the common empirical setting of conditional moment inequalities with nuisance parameters entering linearly. User-friendly Matlab code to implement the test is provided.

給出了矩不等式在方差已知的正態(tài)模型中具有精確大小，且在漸近正態(tài)下具有一致漸近精確大小的簡單檢驗方法。該測試將準似然比統(tǒng)計量與卡方臨界值進行比較，其中自由度是有限樣本中活躍不等式的秩。該測試不需要模擬，因此計算速度快，特別適用于通過測試反演構(gòu)造參數(shù)的置信集。該算法不使用調(diào)優(yōu)參數(shù)進行彎矩選擇，但仍能適應(yīng)彎矩不等式的松弛性。此外，我們展示了如何測試可以很容易地適應(yīng)子向量的推理在常見的經(jīng)驗設(shè)置的條件矩不等式與妨害參數(shù)進入線性。用戶友好的Matlab代碼實現(xiàn)的測試提供。

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8.Innovation and Strategic Network Formation

創(chuàng)新與戰(zhàn)略網(wǎng)絡(luò)形成

Krishna Dasaratha

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 229–260,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac021

We study a model of innovation with a large number of firms that create new technologies by combining several discrete ideas. These ideas are created via private investment and spread between firms. Firms face a choice between secrecy, which protects existing intellectual property, and openness, which facilitates learning from others. Their decisions determine interaction rates between firms, and these interaction rates enter our model as link probabilities in a learning network. Higher interaction rates impose both positive and negative externalities, as there is more learning but also more competition. We show that the equilibrium learning network is at a critical threshold between sparse and dense networks. At equilibrium, the positive externality from interaction dominates: the innovation rate and welfare would be dramatically higher if the network were denser. So there are large returns to increasing interaction rates above the critical threshold. Nevertheless, several natural types of interventions fail to move the equilibrium away from criticality. One effective policy solution is to introduce informational intermediaries, such as public innovators who do not have incentives to be secretive. These intermediaries can facilitate a high-innovation equilibrium by transmitting ideas from one private firm to another.

我們研究了一個由大量企業(yè)通過組合幾個離散的想法來創(chuàng)造新技術(shù)的創(chuàng)新模型。這些想法是通過私人投資產(chǎn)生的，并在公司之間傳播。企業(yè)面臨著一個選擇，要么是保護現(xiàn)有知識產(chǎn)權(quán)的保密，要么是便于向他人學習的公開。他們的決策決定了企業(yè)之間的交互率，這些交互率作為學習網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的鏈接概率進入我們的模型。更高的互動率會帶來正外部性和負外部性，因為學習更多，競爭也更多。我們表明，平衡學習網(wǎng)絡(luò)在稀疏和密集網(wǎng)絡(luò)之間處于一個臨界閾值。在均衡狀態(tài)下，來自互動的正外部性占主導(dǎo)地位:如果網(wǎng)絡(luò)更密集，創(chuàng)新速度和福利會顯著更高。因此，將互動率提高到臨界閾值以上會有很大的回報。然而，一些自然類型的干預(yù)措施未能使平衡脫離臨界狀態(tài)。一個有效的政策解決方案是引入信息中介機構(gòu)，比如沒有保密動機的公共創(chuàng)新者。這些中介機構(gòu)可以通過將想法從一家私營企業(yè)傳遞給另一家私營企業(yè)來促進高創(chuàng)新均衡。

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9.The Emergence of Market Structure

市場結(jié)構(gòu)的出現(xiàn)

Maryam Farboodi,?Gregor Jarosch,?Robert Shimer

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 261–292,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac014

We study a model of over-the-counter trading in which?ex ante?identical traders invest in a contact technology and participate in bilateral trade. We show that a rich market structure emerges both in equilibrium and in an optimal allocation. There is continuous heterogeneity in market access under weak regularity conditions. If the cost per contact is constant, heterogeneity is governed by a power law and there are middlemen, market participants with unboundedly high contact rates who account for a positive fraction of meetings. Externalities lead to overinvestment in equilibrium, and policies that reduce investment in the contact technology can improve welfare. We relate our findings to important features of real-world trading networks.

本文研究了一個事前相同的交易者投資于一種接觸技術(shù)并參與雙邊交易的場外交易模型。我們的研究表明，富裕市場結(jié)構(gòu)在均衡和最優(yōu)配置中同時出現(xiàn)。在弱規(guī)律性條件下，市場準入存在持續(xù)的異質(zhì)性。如果每次接觸的成本是恒定的，異質(zhì)性受冪律控制，存在中間人，即具有無限高接觸率的市場參與者，他們占會議的正部分。外部性導(dǎo)致均衡中的過度投資，減少接觸技術(shù)投資的政策可以提高福利。我們將研究結(jié)果與現(xiàn)實世界交易網(wǎng)絡(luò)的重要特征聯(lián)系起來。

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10.Affordable Housing and City Welfare

經(jīng)濟適用房和城市福利

Jack Favilukis,?Pierre Mabille,?Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 293–330,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac024

Housing affordability is the main policy challenge for most large cities in the world. Zoning changes, rent control, housing vouchers, and tax credits are the main levers employed by policymakers. How effective are they at combatting the affordability crisis? We build a dynamic stochastic spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the effect of these policies on the well-being of its citizens. The model endogenizes house prices, rents, construction, labour supply, output, income, and wealth inequality, the location decisions of households within the city as well as inter-city migration. Its main novel features are risk, risk aversion, and incomplete risk-sharing. We calibrate the model to the New York metropolitan statistical area. Housing affordability policies carry substantial insurance value but affect aggregate housing and labour supply and cause misallocation in labour and housing markets. Housing affordability policies that enhance access to this insurance especially for the neediest households create substantial net welfare gains.

住房負擔能力是世界上大多數(shù)大城市的主要政策挑戰(zhàn)。分區(qū)變化、租金控制、住房憑證和稅收抵免是決策者使用的主要杠桿。它們在應(yīng)對可負擔性危機方面有多有效?我們構(gòu)建了一個動態(tài)隨機空間均衡模型來評估這些政策對居民福利的影響。該模型內(nèi)生于房價、租金、建筑、勞動力供應(yīng)、產(chǎn)出、收入和財富不平等、城市內(nèi)家庭的區(qū)位決策以及城市間的遷移。其主要新穎特征是風險、風險規(guī)避和不完全風險分擔。我們將模型校準到紐約大都市的統(tǒng)計區(qū)域。住房負擔能力政策具有重大的保險價值，但會影響住房和勞動力的總供應(yīng)，并導(dǎo)致勞動力和住房市場的錯配。住房負擔能力政策提高了獲得這種保險的機會，特別是對最貧困的家庭來說，創(chuàng)造了大量的凈福利收益。

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11.Slicing the Pie: Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Trade

切開蛋糕:量化貿(mào)易的總效應(yīng)和分配效應(yīng)

Simon Galle,?Andrés Rodríguez-Clare,?Moises Yi

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 331–375,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac020

We develop a multi-sector gravity model with heterogeneous workers to quantify the aggregate and group-level welfare effects of trade. The model generalizes the specific-factors intuition to a setting with labour reallocation, leads to a parsimonious formula for the group-level welfare effects from trade, and nests the aggregate results in Arkolakis, Costinot and Rodríguez-Clare (2012, “New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?”,?American Economic Review,?102, 94–130). We estimate the model using the structural relationship between China-shock driven changes in manufacturing employment and average earnings across US groups defined as commuting zones. We find that the China shock increases average welfare but some groups experience losses as high as four times the average gain. However, adjusting for plausible measures of inequality aversion barely affects the welfare gains. We also develop and estimate an extension of the model that endogenizes labour force participation and unemployment, finding similar welfare effects from the China shock.

我們開發(fā)了一個包含異質(zhì)性工人的多部門引力模型，以量化貿(mào)易的總體和群體層面的福利效應(yīng)。該模型將特定因素的直覺推廣到一個有勞動力重新分配的環(huán)境中，導(dǎo)致了一個關(guān)于貿(mào)易帶來的群體層面福利效應(yīng)的精簡公式，并在Arkolakis、Costinot和Rodríguez-Clare(2012年，“新的貿(mào)易模型，同樣的舊收益?”，《美國經(jīng)濟評論》，102,94 - 130)。我們使用中國沖擊驅(qū)動的制造業(yè)就業(yè)變化與被定義為通勤區(qū)的美國群體平均收入之間的結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系來估計該模型。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國沖擊提高了平均福利，但一些群體的損失高達平均收益的四倍。然而，根據(jù)厭惡不平等的合理指標進行調(diào)整，幾乎不會影響福利收益。我們還開發(fā)并估計了一個內(nèi)化為勞動力參與和失業(yè)的模型的擴展，發(fā)現(xiàn)中國沖擊產(chǎn)生了類似的福利效應(yīng)。

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12.Using Bid Rotation and Incumbency to Detect Collusion: A Regression Discontinuity Approach?

利用競價旋轉(zhuǎn)和在位時間來檢測共謀:一種斷點回歸方法

Kei Kawai,?Jun Nakabayashi,?Juan Ortner,?Sylvain Chassang

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 376–403,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac013

Cartels participating in procurement auctions frequently use bid rotation or prioritize incumbents to allocate contracts. However, establishing a link between observed allocation patterns and firm conduct has been difficult: there are cost-based competitive explanations for such patterns. We show that by focusing on auctions in which the winning and losing bids are very close, it is possible to distinguish allocation patterns reflecting cost differences across firms from patterns reflecting non-competitive environments. We apply our tests to two datasets: the sample of Ohio milk auctions studied in Porter and Zona (1999, “Ohio School Milk Markets: An Analysis of Bidding”,?RAND Journal of Economics,?30, 263–288), and a sample of municipal procurement auctions from Japan.

參與采購拍賣的卡特爾經(jīng)常使用輪流投標或優(yōu)先考慮現(xiàn)有企業(yè)來分配合同。然而，在觀察到的分配模式和企業(yè)行為之間建立聯(lián)系一直很困難:這些模式有基于成本的競爭性解釋。我們的研究表明，通過關(guān)注中標者和敗標者非常接近的拍賣，有可能區(qū)分反映企業(yè)之間成本差異的分配模式和反映非競爭環(huán)境的模式。我們將測試應(yīng)用于兩個數(shù)據(jù)集:波特和Zona研究的俄亥俄州牛奶拍賣樣本(1999年，“俄亥俄州學校牛奶市場:投標分析”，蘭德經(jīng)濟學雜志，30,263-288)，以及來自日本的市政采購拍賣樣本。

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13.Should Central Banks Issue Digital Currency?

央行應(yīng)該發(fā)行數(shù)字貨幣嗎?

Todd Keister,?Daniel Sanches

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 404–431,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac017

We study how introducing a central bank digital currency affects equilibrium allocations and welfare in an environment where both currency and bank deposits are used in exchange. We highlight an important policy tradeoff: while a digital currency tends to improve efficiency in exchange, it may also crowd out bank deposits, raise banks’ funding costs, and decrease investment. We derive conditions under which?targeted?digital currencies, which compete only with physical currency or only with bank deposits, raise welfare. If such targeted currencies are infeasible, we illustrate the policy tradeoffs that arise when issuing a single, universal digital currency.

我們研究了在貨幣和銀行存款都被用于交換的環(huán)境中，引入央行數(shù)字貨幣如何影響均衡分配和福利。我們強調(diào)一個重要的政策權(quán)衡:雖然數(shù)字貨幣往往會提高效率，但它也可能擠出銀行存款，提高銀行的融資成本，并減少投資。我們得出的條件是，目標數(shù)字貨幣(僅與實物貨幣或銀行存款競爭)會提高福利。如果這些目標貨幣不可行，我們將說明發(fā)行單一、通用的數(shù)字貨幣時出現(xiàn)的政策權(quán)衡。

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14.Behaviour within a Clinical Trial and Implications for Mammography Guidelines

臨床試驗中的行為和對乳房x光檢查指南的影響

Amanda E Kowalski

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 432–462,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac022

Mammography guidelines have weakened in response to evidence that mammograms diagnose breast cancers that would never eventually cause symptoms, a phenomenon called “overdiagnosis.” Given concerns about overdiagnosis, instead of recommending mammograms, US guidelines encourage women aged 40–49 to get them as they see fit. To assess whether these guidelines target women effectively, I propose an approach that examines mammography behaviour within an influential clinical trial that followed participants long enough to find overdiagnosis. I find that women who are more likely to receive mammograms are healthier and have higher socioeconomic status. More importantly, I find that the 20-year level of overdiagnosis is at least 3.5 times higher among women who are most likely to receive mammograms. At least 36%?of their cancers are overdiagnosed. These findings imply that US guidelines encourage mammograms among healthier women who are more likely to be overdiagnosed by them. Guidelines in other countries do not.

有證據(jù)表明，乳房x光檢查診斷出的乳腺癌最終不會引起癥狀，這種現(xiàn)象被稱為“過度診斷”，對此，乳房x光檢查指南的作用有所減弱?？紤]到對過度診斷的擔憂，美國的指導(dǎo)方針鼓勵40-49歲的女性按照自己認為合適的方式進行檢查，而不是推薦乳房x光檢查。為了評估這些指導(dǎo)方針是否有效地針對女性，我提出了一種方法，在一項有影響力的臨床試驗中檢查乳房x光檢查的行為，該試驗跟蹤參與者足夠長的時間，以發(fā)現(xiàn)過度診斷。我發(fā)現(xiàn)，更有可能接受乳房x光檢查的女性更健康，社會經(jīng)濟地位也更高。更重要的是，我發(fā)現(xiàn)，在最有可能接受乳房x光檢查的女性中，20年的過度診斷水平至少高出3.5倍。至少有36 %的癌癥被過度診斷。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)表明，美國的指導(dǎo)方針鼓勵那些更有可能被過度診斷的健康女性進行乳房x光檢查。其他國家的指南則沒有。

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15.How Do Inheritances Shape Wealth Inequality? Theory and Evidence from Sweden?

遺產(chǎn)是如何塑造財富不平等的?來自瑞典的理論和證據(jù)

Arash Nekoei,?David Seim

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 463–498,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac016

This article aims to measure and understand the role of inheritances in shaping wealth inequality. We use a quasi-experimental design and Swedish administrative data to document that the average heir depletes her inheritance within a decade while the inheritances of wealthy heirs remain intact. These different depletion rates are not due to different consumption or labour supply responses but due to different rates of return on inherited wealth. Upon their receipt, inheritances reduce relative measures of wealth inequality, such as top shares or percentile ratios. Theoretically, this reduction in inequality could be due to either a compressed inheritance distribution or similar chances of having wealthy parents (high intergenerational mobility). Empirically, the first force is more significant in Sweden. Within a decade, however, the effect is reversed: inheritances increase wealth inequality since the different depletion rates widen the inequality in inherited wealth over time. This implies that inheritance taxation can reduce long run wealth inequality only through the taxation of wealthy heirs.

本文旨在衡量和理解遺產(chǎn)在塑造財富不平等中的作用。我們使用準實驗設(shè)計和瑞典的行政數(shù)據(jù)來證明，普通繼承人在十年內(nèi)耗盡了她的遺產(chǎn)，而富有繼承人的遺產(chǎn)卻完好無損。這些不同的耗竭率不是由于不同的消費或勞動力供應(yīng)反應(yīng)，而是由于繼承財富的回報率不同。在他們獲得遺產(chǎn)后，遺產(chǎn)減少了衡量財富不平等的相對指標，如最高股份或百分位比率。從理論上講，這種不平等的減少可能是由于繼承分配壓縮，或者有類似的機會擁有富裕的父母(高代際流動性)。從經(jīng)驗上看，第一種力量在瑞典更為重要。然而，在十年內(nèi)，這種效應(yīng)發(fā)生了逆轉(zhuǎn):遺產(chǎn)會加劇財富不平等，因為隨著時間的推移，不同的耗竭率會擴大繼承財富的不平等。這意味著，遺產(chǎn)稅只能通過對富有的繼承人征稅來減少長期的財富不平等。