The energy crisis and Europe’s astonishing luck

National leaders must make the most of the good weather

Visitors to Warsaw at this time of year do not tend to bask in（沉浸在） temperatures approaching 20°C. Bilbao is usually frosty, not tropical, in January. But this winter is a strange one. Temperature records are being broken across Europe and energy prices are plummeting（暴跌）: the price of natural gas at the continent’s main hub has fallen to levels last seen before the war in Ukraine游客在這個時候華沙，往往不會沐浴在接近 20℃的溫度中。畢爾巴鄂在一月份通常是霜凍的，而不是熱帶的。但這個冬天很奇怪。歐洲各地的溫度記錄被打破，能源價格急劇下降：歐洲大陸主要樞紐的天然氣價格已降至烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭之前的水平。

A warm autumn postponed the heating season, allowing gas-storage facilities to be filled to the brim. The present warmth has enabled them to be topped up（加滿） again—a startling turn in the middle of winter. All told, Europe has sucked out half as much gas from storage facilities as at this point in the past two winters. And forecasts suggest a mild end to winter.一個溫暖的秋天推遲了供暖季節(jié)，使天然氣儲存設(shè)施被填滿。目前的溫暖使它們能夠再次被填滿–在冬季中的一個驚人的轉(zhuǎn)變?？偟膩碚f，歐洲從儲氣設(shè)施中吸走的天然氣數(shù)量是過去兩個冬天的一半。預(yù)測顯示，冬季結(jié)束時將會很溫和。

The good weather is not the only reason for cheer. Gas supply is growing as new liquefied-natural-gas terminals begin work. A wet autumn and windy winter have helped propel hydro and wind generators. French nuclear plants, turned off for maintenance, are slowly returning to the grid. “The stressors that caused the energy crisis of 2022 are all relaxing at the same time,” notes Lion Hirth of the Hertie School in Berlin. Power prices in Europe have fallen back to levels last seen before the summer.良好的天氣并不是唯一值得歡呼的理由。隨著新的液化天然氣終端開始工作，天然氣供應(yīng)正在增長。潮濕的秋季和多風(fēng)的冬季幫助推動了水力和風(fēng)力發(fā)電機的發(fā)展。因維修而關(guān)閉的法國核電站正慢慢地回到電網(wǎng)中。“柏林 Hertie 學(xué)院的 Lion Hirth 指出：”導(dǎo)致 2022 年能源危機的壓力因素同時也在放松。歐洲的電力價格已經(jīng)回落到夏季之前的水平。

This is providing the continent with an economic boost. Indicators of sentiment have risen for two months in a row. Defying gloomy predictions, German industrial production continues to hold up. Unemployment remains at rock bottom across Europe, and firms plan to hire more, rather than make job cuts. Forecasters are lifting their growth projections. Goldman Sachs, a bank, no longer sees the euro zone slipping into recession in 2023. In a flashback to medieval times, a change in weather is changing Europe’s economic fortunes.這為歐洲大陸提供了經(jīng)濟(jì)動力。情緒指標(biāo)已經(jīng)連續(xù)兩個月上升。德國的工業(yè)生產(chǎn)不顧悲觀的預(yù)測，繼續(xù)保持增長。整個歐洲的失業(yè)率仍然處于谷底，企業(yè)計劃雇用更多人員，而不是裁員。預(yù)測人員正在提高他們的增長預(yù)測。高盛銀行 (Goldman Sachs) 不再認(rèn)為歐元區(qū)會在 2023 年滑入衰退。在回到中世紀(jì)的時候，天氣的變化正在改變歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)命運。

Yet it is still too soon to announce an end to the energy crisis. For a start, prices remain well above normal. Overall power prices are roughly twice what they were in mid-2021. The same gas that costs around €75 ($81) per megawatt-hour today sold for €10 before covid-19. Further drops are unlikely. Gas demand from industry will probably pick up; gas-fired power stations may start to replace coal-fired ones.然而，現(xiàn)在宣布能源危機的結(jié)束還為時過早。首先，價格仍然遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于正常水平。整體電力價格大約是 2021 年中期的兩倍。今天每兆瓦時價格約為 75 歐元（81 美元）的相同天然氣，在 19 日之前的價格為 10 歐元。進(jìn)一步下降是不可能的。工業(yè)對天然氣的需求可能會回升；燃?xì)獍l(fā)電站可能開始取代燃煤發(fā)電站。

And even with bursting storage facilities, Europe is still short of what the International Energy Agency, an official forecaster, reckons the continent will need for a bad winter next year. Asian demand for gas is increasing, and will rise further still as China’s economy returns to normality. As Timera Energy, a consultancy, notes, the gas market is still operating on the edge of supply capacity, meaning sharp price movements remain possible.即使儲存設(shè)施爆滿，歐洲仍然缺少官方預(yù)測機構(gòu)國際能源署 (International Energy Agency) 所估計的歐洲大陸在明年的惡劣冬季所需的天然氣。亞洲對天然氣的需求正在增加，并將隨著中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的恢復(fù)正常而進(jìn)一步增加。咨詢公司 Timera Energy 指出，天然氣市場仍在供應(yīng)能力的邊緣運行，這意味著價格大幅波動仍有可能。

Europe would do well to bank its luck. Leaders could use the chance to rethink the myriad support schemes they introduced over the summer, many of which are are costly, inefficient and untargeted. They would be wise to focus money on the vulnerable, and to tie it to green investments. After all, it is weirdly hot weather that has given Europe its current reprieve. The fight against climate change will only become more acute as the energy crisis fades.歐洲會很好地利用其運氣。領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人可以利用這個機會重新思考他們在夏天推出的無數(shù)支持計劃，其中許多計劃成本高、效率低、沒有針對性。他們明智的做法是將資金集中于弱勢群體，并將其與綠色投資掛鉤。畢竟，正是奇怪的炎熱天氣給了歐洲目前的緩和期。隨著能源危機的消退，應(yīng)對氣候變化的斗爭只會變得更加嚴(yán)峻。