Journal of International Economics?2023年第四期

Volume 143，July 2023

——更多動(dòng)態(tài)，請(qǐng)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

The macroeconomic stabilization of tariff shocks: What is the optimal monetary response?

關(guān)稅沖擊的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定:最優(yōu)貨幣對(duì)策是什么?

Paul R. Bergin, Giancarlo Corsetti

In the wake of Brexit and Trump trade war, central banks face the need to reconsider the role of monetary policy in managing the inflationary-recessionary effects of hikes in tariffs. Using a New Keynesian model enriched with global value chains and firm dynamics, we show that the optimal monetary response is expansionary. It supports activity and producer prices at the expense of aggravating short-run headline inflation---contrary to the prescription of the standard Taylor rule. This holds all the more when the home currency is dominant in pricing of international trade.

在英國(guó)退歐和特朗普貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)之后，各國(guó)央行面臨著重新考慮貨幣政策在管理關(guān)稅上調(diào)帶來(lái)的通脹-衰退影響方面的作用的必要性。利用一個(gè)包含全球價(jià)值鏈和企業(yè)動(dòng)態(tài)的新凱恩斯模型，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)最優(yōu)貨幣反應(yīng)具有擴(kuò)張性。它支持了經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)和生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格，以加劇短期整體通脹為代價(jià)——這與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)泰勒規(guī)則的規(guī)定相反。當(dāng)本國(guó)貨幣在國(guó)際貿(mào)易定價(jià)中占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位時(shí)，這種情況就更加明顯了。

Productivity slowdown and tax havens: Where is measured value creation?

生產(chǎn)率放緩和避稅天堂:衡量?jī)r(jià)值創(chuàng)造的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)在哪里?

Jean-Charles Bricongne, Samuel Delpeuch, Margarita Lopez-Forero

Based on French firm-level data, we evaluate the contribution of the micro-level profit-shifting –through tax haven foreign direct investments– to the aggregate productivity slowdown measured in France. We show that firm measured productivity in France declines over the years following the establishment in a tax haven, with an average estimated drop by 3.5% in apparent labor productivity. To isolate the contribution of multinational enterprises' (MNEs) tax optimization to the decline in productivity, we then exploit the 2006 Cadbury-Schweppes decision of the European Court of Justice limiting the extent to which member States can counter European MNEs' tax planning strategies. We find that multinational groups benefiting from that loosening of the legal constraints do exhibit a lower labor productivity following that ruling. Finally, given these firms' weight, our results imply an annual loss of 5.7% in terms of the aggregate annual labor productivity growth.

On the effects of income heterogeneity in monopolistically competitive markets

壟斷競(jìng)爭(zhēng)市場(chǎng)中收入異質(zhì)性的影響

Sergei Kichko, Pierre M. Picard

Abstract

This paper studies the market and welfare effects of income heterogeneity in monopolistically competitive product markets in the context of nonhomothetic preferences. In a closed economy, where richer individuals' expenditures are less sensitive to price change compared to poorer ones', a mean-preserving contraction of income distribution entices firms to charge higher markups, reduce output, and fosters creation of new varieties. General equilibrium effects have a negative impact on poorer individuals and, in specific circumstances, on the whole population. In an open economy with free trade, lower income inequality in one country creates price divergence between trading countries. Lower inequality not only further decreases trade volumes and values but also creates a general equilibrium effect that may negatively affect poor individuals. Finally, general equilibrium effects are shown to be quantitatively nonnegligible.

本文研究了非同質(zhì)偏好下壟斷競(jìng)爭(zhēng)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)中收入異質(zhì)性的市場(chǎng)效應(yīng)和福利效應(yīng)。在一個(gè)封閉的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，與窮人相比，富人的支出對(duì)價(jià)格變化的敏感度較低，收入分配的均數(shù)保留收縮誘使企業(yè)收取更高的加價(jià)，減少產(chǎn)量，并促進(jìn)新品種的創(chuàng)造。一般均衡效應(yīng)對(duì)較貧窮的個(gè)人有負(fù)面影響，在特定情況下對(duì)全體人口也有負(fù)面影響。在自由貿(mào)易的開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)中，一國(guó)較低的收入不平等會(huì)造成貿(mào)易國(guó)之間的價(jià)格差異。不平等程度的降低不僅會(huì)進(jìn)一步減少貿(mào)易額和貿(mào)易額，而且還會(huì)產(chǎn)生一種可能對(duì)窮人產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響的一般均衡效應(yīng)。最后，一般均衡效應(yīng)在數(shù)量上是不可忽略的。

Sovereign debt responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

主權(quán)債務(wù)應(yīng)對(duì)COVID-19大流行

Huanhuan Zheng

We utilize the global natural experiment created by the COVID-19 outbreak to identify sovereign borrowing capacity in time of need and its determinants. First, we demonstrate that the pandemic creates exogeneous shocks to sovereign borrowing needs—governments borrowed more when hit by more severe pandemic shocks. Second, we show that credible fiscal rules enhance sovereign borrowing capacity, while unsustainable debts in terms of high debt-to-GDP ratio, rollover risk, and sovereign default risk weaken it. Third, we find that, in response to the same pandemic shock, sovereign spreads increase more in emerging economies than advanced economies though the former borrow less during the pandemic. Finally, further analysis reveals that pegged exchange rate regimes, open capital accounts, and monetary dependence improve emerging economies' borrowing capacity.

Quantum prices

量子價(jià)格

Diego Aparicio, Roberto Rigobon

Many retailers practice an extreme form of discrete pricing defined asquantum prices: differentiated products are priced using few and sparse price buckets. To show this, online data was collected for 350,000 products from over 65 fashion retailers in the U.S. and the U.K. This pricing strategy is observed within categories and across categories (i.e., similar or even disparately distinct products like jeans and bags have an identical price), as well as in product introductions, where new products come in at previous price buckets. Normalized indices indicate substantial price clustering after controlling for popular prices, convenient prices, assortment size, or digit endings. Quantum prices have implications for price adjustments through product shares, markdown prices, and for the law-of-one-price. A behavioral model of price salience and recall is discussed.

許多零售商采用一種被定義為量子價(jià)格的離散定價(jià)的極端形式:差異化產(chǎn)品使用很少且稀疏的價(jià)格桶來(lái)定價(jià)。為了表明這一點(diǎn)，我們從美國(guó)和英國(guó)超過(guò)65家時(shí)尚零售商那里收集了35萬(wàn)種產(chǎn)品的在線數(shù)據(jù)。我們?cè)陬悇e內(nèi)和類別之間觀察到了這種定價(jià)策略(即，類似或甚至截然不同的產(chǎn)品，如牛仔褲和包，有相同的價(jià)格)，以及在產(chǎn)品介紹中，新產(chǎn)品以以前的價(jià)格桶進(jìn)入。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化指數(shù)表明，在控制了流行價(jià)格、方便價(jià)格、品種大小或數(shù)字結(jié)尾后，價(jià)格出現(xiàn)了實(shí)質(zhì)性的聚集。量子價(jià)格通過(guò)產(chǎn)品份額、降價(jià)和一價(jià)定律對(duì)價(jià)格調(diào)整有影響。討論了價(jià)格顯著性與召回的行為模型。