Jobs report will offer fresh recession clues

Economists expect to see slower job growth

By Breck Dumas FOXBusiness

The Labor Department's monthly jobs report due out Friday is likely to show U.S. employers hired fewer workers last month than in May, and economists say the slowdown may serve as the latest recession clue.

美國(guó)勞工部定于周五公布的月度就業(yè)報(bào)告可能顯示，美國(guó)上個(gè)月的就業(yè)人數(shù)較5月份有所減少。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說，就業(yè)放緩可能是最新的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退跡象。

Economists?polled?by?Refinitiv?forecasted the report to show that 268,000?nonfarm?jobs were added to?payrolls?in June, which would be?the slowest in over a year?and down from 390,000 the month before.

Refinitiv調(diào)查的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們根據(jù)報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)，6月非農(nóng)就業(yè)人口增加26.8萬人，為一年多來最低水平，低于前月的39萬人。

Refinitiv：路孚特（一家全球的金融市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施提供商）

poll /p??l/名詞：1.民意測(cè)驗(yàn)；民意調(diào)查 ?to carry out/conduct a poll 進(jìn)行民意測(cè)驗(yàn)2. 選舉投票；計(jì)票 ?The final result of the poll will be known tomorrow. 投票結(jié)果將于明天公布。 3.投票數(shù) ?Labour is ahead in the poll. 工黨的得票數(shù)領(lǐng)先。 動(dòng)詞：1. 獲得（票數(shù)）?They polled 39% of the vote in the last election. 在上屆選舉中，他們獲得了39%的選票。2. 對(duì)…進(jìn)行民意調(diào)查

Nonfarm adj.非農(nóng)業(yè)品的；與農(nóng)場(chǎng)無關(guān)的，非農(nóng)場(chǎng)的

payroll /?pe?r??l/ n. 1.（公司員工的）工資名單 ?We have 500 people on the payroll . 我們?cè)诰巻T工有500人。2.（公司的）工資總支出

The labor market – along with the economy at large – is expected to cool?as the Federal Reserve continues its campaign of bumping up interest rates in an effort to battle roaring inflation, which sits at a 40-year high.

隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)繼續(xù)提高利率以對(duì)抗通貨膨脹，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)——連同整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)——預(yù)計(jì)將會(huì)降溫。目前的通貨膨脹率已達(dá)到40年來的最高點(diǎn)。

But there are growing concerns that the central bank could go too far in slowing down demand and plunge the U.S. into a recession, which is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth.

但人們?cè)絹碓綋?dān)心，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在降低需求方面可能走得太遠(yuǎn)，讓美國(guó)陷入衰退。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的定義是國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值連續(xù)兩個(gè)季度出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。

Some analysts are pointing to signs that a recession is already here: Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta lowered its second-quarter GDP forecast to -2.1%.

一些分析師指出，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)跡象：上周，亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行將第二季度GDP預(yù)期下調(diào)至-2.1%。

The real-time economic gauge known as?GDPNOw?is not an official estimate of growth for the quarter ending in June, but if forthcoming readings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirm the economy?contracted?in Q2, the technical criteria for a recession will have been met.

實(shí)時(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)GDPNOw并不是對(duì)截至6月的第二季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的官方估計(jì)，但如果美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局即將公布的數(shù)據(jù)證實(shí)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在第二季度出現(xiàn)收縮，那么就達(dá)到了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。

Contract：這里是做動(dòng)詞使，收縮，縮小 ?a contracting market 萎縮的市場(chǎng)，收縮，萎縮的意思

GDPNow一種經(jīng)濟(jì)的精細(xì)化宏觀實(shí)時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)體系指標(biāo)?？梢詤⒖兼溄?br>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPNOW/

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will make the final determination as to whether the economy has entered a recession, which the agency says are characterized by high unemployment, low or negative GDP growth, falling income and slowing retail sales.

美國(guó)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)研究局將對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)是否進(jìn)入衰退做出最終決定。該機(jī)構(gòu)表示，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的特征是失業(yè)率高、GDP增長(zhǎng)低或?yàn)樨?fù)、收入下降和零售銷售放緩。

Initial jobless claims rose to a six-month high of 235,000 last week, coming in above the 230,000 estimate and signaling that the labor market remains tight, but demand for labor is cooling.

上周初請(qǐng)失業(yè)索賠人數(shù)升至23.5萬人，達(dá)六個(gè)月最高位，高于預(yù)估的23萬人，顯示就業(yè)市場(chǎng)依然吃緊，但就業(yè)需求正在降溫。

FOX Business' Megan Henney contributed to this report.

?？怂股虡I(yè)的Megan Henney對(duì)這篇報(bào)道做有貢獻(xiàn)。

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