Sumo-sized challenge

相撲級(jí)挑戰(zhàn)

Japanese people need to put more aside for retirement

日本人需要為退休存更多的錢

But they are loth to take greater risks in search for higher returns

但是他們不愿意冒更大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)尋求更高的回報(bào)

詞匯

loth/不愿意的（等于loath）；勉強(qiáng)的；憎惡的

Jul 4th 2019 | TOKYO

LAST MONTH Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA), the financial-industry regulator, lobbed a grenade into a fractious debate on how to support the world’s oldest population in retirement. The typical elderly couple, it warned, will need to top up their public pensions by a whopping ￥20m ($185,000). The furore that followed put Taro Aso, the finance minister, on the back foot. Japan’s pension system “will never collapse”, he insisted.

上個(gè)月，日本金融產(chǎn)業(yè)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)金融廳(FSA)就如何支持世界上年齡最大的退休人口展開(kāi)了一場(chǎng)激烈的辯論。它警告說(shuō)，典型的老年夫婦將需要增加高達(dá)2000萬(wàn)日元(18.5萬(wàn)美元)的公共養(yǎng)老金。隨之而來(lái)的民憤讓日本財(cái)政大臣麻生太郎(Taro Aso)處于下風(fēng)。他堅(jiān)稱，日本的養(yǎng)老金體系“永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)崩潰”。

詞匯

Grenade/手榴彈；滅火彈

Fractious/易怒的；倔強(qiáng)的

Whopping/巨大的；天大的

Furore/勃然大怒；公憤，公眾的騷動(dòng)，群情激憤

His attempt at reassurance was widely mocked. A cartoon in a weekly magazine depicted him helping a Buddhist deity dispatch souls to financial heaven or hell. The implication was that, aged 78 and one of Japan’s richest politicians, he personally did not risk ending up in penury.

他試圖消除疑慮的努力遭到了廣泛的嘲笑。一家周刊刊登的一幅漫畫描繪了他幫助一位佛教神靈將靈魂送入金融天堂或地獄。言下之意是，作為日本最富有的政治家之一，78歲的他本人并沒(méi)有終于窮困的危機(jī)。

詞匯

Deity/神；女神

Dispatch/派遣，發(fā)送

Penury/貧困；貧窮

And yet the gloomy forecast should have come as no surprise. Government mandarins have fretted over Japan’s pension system for years. The Nikkei Shimbun, a staid business newspaper, warned last year of “disaster” unless it was reformed. The system was built on the expectation that people would live until their 70s or 80s, says Naoyuki Yoshino of the Asian Development Bank Institute, a think-tank. But more than half of Japanese babies today can expect to live to over 100. A quarter of all 60-year-olds will still be alive in 35 years, estimates the government.

然而，悲觀的預(yù)測(cè)本應(yīng)不足為奇。多年來(lái)，政府官員一直對(duì)日本的養(yǎng)老金制度感到擔(dān)憂。保守的商業(yè)報(bào)紙《日本經(jīng)濟(jì)新聞》(Nikkei Shimbun)去年警告稱，除非進(jìn)行改革，否則將是一場(chǎng)“災(zāi)難”。智庫(kù)亞洲開(kāi)發(fā)銀行研究所的吉野直之(Naoyuki Yoshino)表示，該體系的建立是基于人們能活到七八十歲的預(yù)期。但如今超過(guò)一半的日本嬰兒有望活到100歲以上。政府估計(jì)，所有60歲老人中有四分之一的人在35年后仍將健在。

詞匯

Mandarin/?政界要員；滿清官吏；

Fretted/焦躁的；腐蝕的

All 20- to 59-year-olds in work must pay a flat premium of ￥16,410 into the national pension fund every month. Those who do so for 40 years get a full pension, currently ￥780,100 a year. Corporate and government workers also make payments into supplementary schemes. But the system is imbalanced, with shrinking numbers paying in and growing numbers drawing out. Japan already has more than 35m people aged over 65—28% of the population. The share is projected to reach a third by 2050.

所有20至59歲的在職人員每月必須向國(guó)家養(yǎng)老基金繳納16410日元的固定保費(fèi)。這樣做40年的人可以得到全額養(yǎng)老金，目前是每年780,100日元。企業(yè)和政府工作人員也通過(guò)補(bǔ)充計(jì)劃支付薪酬。但是這個(gè)系統(tǒng)是不平衡的，越來(lái)越多的人退出，越來(lái)越少的人支付。日本已經(jīng)有超過(guò)3500萬(wàn)65以上的人口——這在日本總?cè)丝跀?shù)中占28%。預(yù)計(jì)到2050年，這一比例將達(dá)到三分之一。

詞匯

Premium/保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)

Japan’s pensions are comparatively stingy, with several countries spending more despite their younger populations (see chart). A couple in their 60s on the basic state pension would be ￥50,000 short each month compared with average household expenditure, says the FSA. A survey by the welfare ministry published on July 2nd found that half of all retired people had no income beyond their pension.

日本的養(yǎng)老金相對(duì)吝嗇，盡管一些國(guó)家的人口更年輕，但支出卻更多(見(jiàn)圖表)。日本金融廳表示，與家庭平均支出相比，一對(duì)60多歲的夫婦每月的基本養(yǎng)老金將減少5萬(wàn)日元。7月2日，日本福利部公布的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，半數(shù)的退休人員除了養(yǎng)老金外沒(méi)有其他收入。

?

The system is due to get even stingier, with spending as a share of GDP planned to stay almost static as the population ages. The FSA’s calculation was supposed to prod people into better retirement planning. But that would mean taking greater risks, says Noriyuki Takayama of the Research Institute for Policies on Pension and Ageing, a think-tank—and Japanese people are highly risk-averse. The bulk of Japan’s ￥1.83 quadrillion in household financial assets is held in post offices or bank accounts that pay zero interest. Most of it is owned by people who remember the puncturing of Japan’s asset bubble a generation ago.

隨著人口老齡化，消費(fèi)占GDP的比例幾乎保持不變，這一體系將變得更加吝嗇。日本金融廳的計(jì)算本應(yīng)促使人們更好地規(guī)劃退休計(jì)劃。但是這意味著要冒更大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，智庫(kù)養(yǎng)老與老齡化政策研究所的Noriyuki Takayama說(shuō)，日本人非常厭惡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。日本1.83萬(wàn)億日元的家庭金融資產(chǎn)中，大部分都存在郵局或銀行賬戶，這些賬戶的利息為零。其中大部分資產(chǎn)為那些還記得上一代人戳破日本資產(chǎn)泡沫的人所有。

詞匯

Prod/ ?刺，戳；刺激，督促

risk-averse/風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避的；不愿承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的

?

Getting them to diversify is both a challenge and a “business opportunity,” says Toshihide Endo, the FSA’s director, given that the net assets of elderly households have been almost flat for 20 years. “This implies that wealth formation is failing to keep pace with increased longevity.”

日本金融廳廳長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)藤敏藏(Toshihide Endo)表示，考慮到20年來(lái)老年家庭的凈資產(chǎn)幾乎持平，讓他們實(shí)現(xiàn)多元化既是一項(xiàng)挑戰(zhàn)，也是一個(gè)“商業(yè)機(jī)遇”?！斑@意味著財(cái)富的形成趕不上壽命的增長(zhǎng)?！?/p>

詞匯

Longevity/長(zhǎng)壽，長(zhǎng)命；壽命

Mr Yoshino draws an unflattering comparison with America, where major asset classes have increased in value far faster than in Japan. But the fear of losses deters many Japanese investors. Nerves have been jangled by a record loss in the most recent quarter at the Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest. Five years ago Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, pressed its managers into shifting about half its assets into equities and slashing its holdings of domestic bonds.

吉野康夫?qū)⑵渑c美國(guó)作了一個(gè)毫不恭維的比較，美國(guó)的主要資產(chǎn)類別的價(jià)值增長(zhǎng)速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)快于日本。但對(duì)虧損的擔(dān)憂令許多日本投資者望而卻步。全球最大的養(yǎng)老投資基金政府最近一個(gè)季度創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的虧損，令投資者神經(jīng)緊張。五年前，日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)敦促其基金經(jīng)理將大約一半的資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)換為股票，并大幅減持日本國(guó)內(nèi)債券。

詞匯

Unflattering/耿直的；有損形象的；不奉承的

Deter/制止，阻止；使打消念頭

Jangle/使發(fā)出刺耳聲，發(fā)出叮當(dāng)聲；刺激，煩擾；爭(zhēng)論；閑聊

Equity/股票；權(quán)益；股本；公平

Japan is a harbinger of changes to come elsewhere. The World Bank forecasts a shortfall in retirement savings in big countries of about $400trn dollars by 2050. More adventurous investment may be part of the solution. Japan’s government also wants to raise the retirement age from 65 to 70. “The very easy answer is that everyone should keep working as long as possible,” says Mr Yoshino. But with a general election just weeks away, Mr Abe may not have felt able to point that out.

日本是其他地方變革的先兆。世界銀行(World Bank)預(yù)測(cè)，到2050年，大國(guó)的退休儲(chǔ)蓄缺口約為4000萬(wàn)億美元。更大膽的投資可能是解決方案的一部分。日本政府還希望將退休年齡從65歲提高到70歲。吉野康夫表示:“最簡(jiǎn)單的答案是，每個(gè)人都應(yīng)該盡可能長(zhǎng)時(shí)間地工作?！钡捎诰嚯x大選只有幾周時(shí)間，安倍可能覺(jué)得沒(méi)有能力指出這一點(diǎn)。

詞匯

Harbinger/先驅(qū)；前兆；